Short Answer

Victoria Broderick is likely to win the TN-04 House race, with the market pricing this outcome at 95.9%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market repriced almost entirely on November 4, 2026, following the release of unofficial election results. The Tennessee Secretary of State's reported final tallies showed Democrat Victoria Broderick securing an upset victory over Republican incumbent Scott DesJarlais by just 280 votes. This news drove an 88.4 percentage point spike in the contract's price, from 3.5% to 91.9%, as the market absorbed the near-certainty of the outcome.
Prior to the election results, the market had priced Broderick as a significant underdog. The contract traded between 0.7% and 3.5% in late October, reflecting the perceived unlikelihood of unseating DesJarlais, who had held the TN-04 seat since 2011. The jump to 91.9% was not a gradual shift in sentiment but a singular, sharp reaction to the hard vote data.
  • Democrat Victoria Broderick won TN-04 by 280 votes; unofficial results confirm.
  • A recount could be triggered, given the narrow 280-vote margin.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Victoria Broderick 95.9% 97.8% Victoria Broderick won the TN-04 House race by 280 votes, according to unofficial final results.
Scott DesJarlais 5.1% 2.2% Scott DesJarlais lost the TN-04 House race to Victoria Broderick by 280 votes.

Current Context

Unofficial results for the November 3, 2026 election indicated Democrat Victoria Broderick held a narrow upset lead in TN-04, ahead by 280 votes with 95,585 votes (48.87%) to Republican incumbent Scott DesJarlais' 95,305 votes (48.73%) [1][2][3][4]. This result would flip a seat DesJarlais had held since 2011 [1][4]. This would make Broderick the only Democrat in Tennessee's congressional delegation [1][4]. The Tennessee Secretary of State posted unofficial final results showing Broderick ahead, though the Associated Press had not called the race as of 5am ET on November 4, 2026 [2]. The 280-vote margin could trigger a recount procedure [2]. There were no reports of DesJarlais conceding defeat as of midnight on November 3, 2026 [1][3].
Redistricting and national trends created conditions for the close race. Tennessee Republicans redrew the congressional map in May 2026, following a Supreme Court decision that weakened the Voting Rights Act [5][6][7][8]. This redrawing shifted TN-04's Baseline from R+39 to R+18 and incorporated a portion of Nashville [1][4][5][6][7][8]. The redistricting also eliminated Tennessee's only Democratic House seat in Memphis [5][6][7][8]. In 2024, DesJarlais had defeated Broderick by over 40 percentage points, 70.0% to 26.8%, in the district's prior configuration [1][4][9][10]. Unofficial results showed Broderick leading in only two of the district's 11 counties, Davidson and Rutherford, but these were the most populous [3][11]. Unofficial results showed her leading Davidson County 37,356 to 11,525 and Rutherford County 40,527 to 40,167 [3][11]. The 2026 midterm election coincided with a national Democratic "blue wave," marked by an 8.6-point lead for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot and former President Trump's approval rating 17-21 points underwater [2][12][13]. Democrats narrowly lost four other Tennessee House races by only a few percentage points [2][12][13].
Prediction markets and polling failed to anticipate Broderick's lead in unofficial results. All major prediction markets and forecasters incorrectly projected the outcome compared to unofficial tallies [14][12][15][16][17][18]. Polymarket showed DesJarlais at 96-97%, Decision Desk HQ at 97%, and Lines.com at 91.5-93% Republican [14][12][15][16][17][18]. Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican [14][12][15][16][17][18]. No public polling showed a competitive race [14][12][15][16][17][18]. Broderick, a 34-year-old tech worker from Fayetteville, raised $94,217 and spent $90,062, facing a nearly $575,000 fundraising deficit against DesJarlais, who raised $667,181 and spent $508,166 [2][12][19]. The race attracted minimal outside spending or national attention [2][12][19]. Broderick campaigned on housing affordability, protecting rural hospitals, responsible gun laws, limiting government surveillance, and voluntary pre-kindergarten [1][4].
Sources (19)
  1. 1Democrat Victoria Broderick wins Tennessee's District 4 in...wpln.org
  2. 2Democrats upset incumbent House member in deep-red Tennessee - Axios Nashvilleaxios.com
  3. 3Victoria Broderick claims victory over U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais in 4th Congressional District • Tennessee Lookouttennesseelookout.com
  4. 4Victoria Broderick upsets Scott DesJarlais in District 4nashvillebanner.com
  5. 5Tennessee Redistricting: Republicans Seek 9-0 after SCOTUS goes 6-3 – Inside Electionsnew.insideelections.com
  6. 6Tennessee Redistricting: Republicans Seek 9-0 after SCOTUS goes 6-3 – Inside Electionsinsideelections.com
  7. 7Tennessee redrew its congressional map. Here's who's on your primary ballot. | WKMSwkms.org
  8. 8Tennessee redrew its congressional map. Here's who's on your primary ballot. | WPLN Newswpln.org
  9. 9Tennessee Fourth Congressional District Election Resultsnytimes.com
  10. 102024 Election Results for Tennessee -- RightDataUSA.comrightdatausa.com
  11. 11County Breakdown for United States House of Representatives District 4 | Election Night Reporting Dashboardelections.tn.gov
  12. 122026 Tennessee US House 4 Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  13. 13An updated look at today’s consensus on the House battlegroundalmanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com
  14. 14TN-04 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
  15. 15TN-04 House Election Winnerpolymarket.com
  16. 16TN-04 House Election Winnerpolymarket.com
  17. 17https://polymarket.copilot.markets/bn/event/tn-04-house-election-winnerpolymarket.copilot.markets
  18. 18Will a Republican Win the TN-04 House Race in 2026? Winner Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  19. 19In 4th District — now including South Nashville — incumbent Rep. DesJarlais will face Victoria Broderick | WPLN Newswpln.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 November 04, 2026: 88.4pp spike

Price increased from 3.5% to 91.9%

Outcome: Victoria Broderick

What happened: The primary driver of the 88.4 percentage point spike was the release of unofficial election results revealing Victoria Broderick's upset victory over incumbent Scott DesJarlais. On November 4, 2026, the Tennessee Secretary of State posted unofficial final results indicating Broderick led by 280 votes [1], directly contradicting the pre-election prediction market odds that had the Republican candidate at 93% probability [2]. This official data prompted the market to rapidly adjust to Broderick's win, despite the Associated Press not yet calling the race [3][1][4]. Social media was irrelevant to this movement, as no specific posts or viral narratives coinciding with the spike are indicated in the provided information.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Democrats upset incumbent House member in deep-red Tennessee - Axios Nashvilleaxios.com
  2. 2https://polymarket.copilot.markets/bn/event/tn-04-house-election-winnerpolymarket.copilot.markets
  3. 3Democrat Victoria Broderick wins Tennessee's District 4 in...wpln.org
  4. 4Victoria Broderick upsets Scott DesJarlais in District 4nashvillebanner.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A 'Yes' contract for a specific candidate in the TN-04 House winner market will resolve positively if that candidate is officially declared the winner of the general election on November 3, 2026; otherwise, a 'No' contract for that candidate will resolve positively. Resolution is based solely on the official winning party, and any displayed current vote counts or percentages on the page are not part of the settlement conditions for this 2026 election.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Victoria Broderick $0.95 $0.11 96%
Scott DesJarlais $0.11 $0.95 5%

Market Discussion

Traders on Kalshi overwhelmingly predict Victoria Broderick (D) will win the TN-04 House seat with a 94.9% probability. The primary argument supporting this 'Yes' outcome is the displayed live vote count showing Broderick narrowly leading by 280 votes with 99.0% counted. This strong consensus exists despite the district's historical strong Republican lean (indicated by R +22.3 and past presidential elections), incumbent Scott DesJarlais's significantly higher fundraising, and his Republican party affiliation.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 77 Good

Largest single print on KXHOUSERACE-TN04-26-D carried 44% of its $883 tape (window is 2% of 24h flow)

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score82Good
Trade quality20% of score60Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score77Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
77Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXHOUSERACE-TN04-26-D carried 44% of its $883 tape (window is 2% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
59Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

2 contracts · worst first

Victoria Broderick58
Thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 9.0% of price over 12 traded bars

Scott DesJarlais80
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 3.6% of price over 15 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,194 · 24h
Book spread 57% vs realized 4%
Move quality
96Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

2 contracts · worst first

Scott DesJarlais94
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Victoria Broderick96
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Victoria Broderick100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Scott DesJarlais100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
60Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 70 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 3.2c slippage (~3% of a 92c contract)

$1,000 order: 4.0c slippage (~4% of a 92c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Victoria BroderickPrimary69Market scoreLiquidity58Move quality96Rule clarity100
Why 69
Liquidity
58 · Thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 9.0% of price over 12 traded bars

Move quality
96 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Scott DesJarlais84Market scoreLiquidity80Move quality94Rule clarity100
Why 84
Liquidity
80 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 3.6% of price over 15 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,194 · 24h
Book spread 57% vs realized 4%
Move quality
94 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 4, 2026

6. What are the legal grounds and historical precedents for a recount in Tennessee that could affect the 280-vote margin between Victoria Broderick and Scott DesJarlais?

Recount request mechanismOnly as part of a contested election [1]
Deadline to initiate contested electionWithin five days after certification [1]
Automatic recount triggersNone based solely on vote margin [1][2]
Tennessee law does not permit direct election recounts. Instead, a recount can only be requested as part of a contested election, which must be initiated within five days following the election's certification [1]. Candidates cannot directly request a recount; they must follow this procedural pathway to contest the election outcome [1].
Recounts in Tennessee are ordered under specific, restrictive conditions. A court or body overseeing a contested election may order a recount in circumstances such as a tie vote, evidence of fraud or machine malfunction significant enough to alter the result, or any other situation where a recount is deemed warranted [1]. Tennessee's framework is notably restrictive as it does not include automatic recount triggers based solely on the vote margin [1][2]. Additionally, procedural uncertainties exist regarding the deadline for recount completion and who is responsible for associated costs [1].
The TN-04 margin might warrant a recount, but historical precedents are absent. In the context of the TN-04 race, a 280-vote margin with 95% of votes counted would likely meet the threshold for a court to find a recount warranted under the "any other instance" provision, especially if there are indications of fraud or malfunction affecting that many votes [3][1]. However, the provided research does not offer historical precedents for recounts in Tennessee that could influence this specific race [1].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Recount laws in Tennesseeballotpedia.org
  2. 2Recounts — MultiState Electionsmultistate.us
  3. 3TN-04 House Election Winner | Polymarketpolymarket.us

7. How did the consensus 2026 forecasts from outlets like the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ justify a 'Solid Republican' rating for TN-04?

Trump 2024 District Margin24 points (Cook Political Report) [1]
DesJarlais Win Probability (2026)97% (Decision Desk HQ) [2][3]
Cook Partisan Voting Index (TN-04)R+11 (Cook Political Report) [1]
The Cook Political Report consistently rated TN-04 as 'Solid Republican.' This classification, signifying a non-competitive race, was attributed to the district's strong Republican lean, evidenced by its projected 24-point margin for Donald Trump in 2024, which bolstered Representative Scott DesJarlais's reelection prospects [1]. The rating, last updated on February 6, 2025, aligned with the district's Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+11, updated on November 17, 2025 [1]. This 'Solid Republican' status for TN-04 was consistently maintained from at least October 6, 2026, through October 27, 2026 [4][5]. DesJarlais's previous electoral performance, including his 2024 re-election with 70.0% of the vote, further demonstrated the district's heavy Republican preference [6].
Decision Desk HQ also predicted a Safe Republican outcome for TN-04. Their 1,000,000 simulation model for the 2026 House election forecasted Scott DesJarlais to win with a 97% probability, classifying the race as 'Safe Republican' [2][3]. These projections from Decision Desk HQ remained consistent over an extended period, observed from at least October 6, 2026, through October 27, 2026 [2][3][4].
Additional indicators further affirmed DesJarlais's overwhelming electoral advantage. Prediction markets mirrored these expectations, pricing DesJarlais's win probability between 97% and 99% across platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood as of October 30, 2026 [7][8][9]. Furthermore, the Democratic challenger, Victoria Broderick, faced a substantial fundraising deficit, having raised $59.8K compared to DesJarlais's significantly higher $536.8K [10][11][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1TN-04 2026cookpolitical.com
  2. 22026 Tennessee US House 4 General Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 House Election Predictions: Forecast & Odds | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4Tennessee's 4th Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  5. 52026 CPR House Race ratingscookpolitical.com
  6. 62026 United States House of Representatives elections in...en.wikipedia.org
  7. 7TN-04 House Election Winner | Polymarketpolymarket.us
  8. 8November 3, 2026: TN-04 House winner Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  9. 9TN-04 House Race 2026 Odds: Broderick vs. DesJarlaisexchangealpha.com
  10. 102026 Tennessee House Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  11. 112026 Tennessee’s 4th District race: Victoria Broderick (D) vs. Scott DesJarlais (R)2026election.com
  12. 122026 Tennessee’s 4th District race: Victoria Broderick (D) vs. Scott DesJarlais (R)2026election.com

8. How did Victoria Broderick's and Scott DesJarlais's spending efficiency, measured by cost-per-vote, compare in the 2026 TN-04 election cycle?

Victoria Broderick Cost-Per-Vote$0.95 (October 14, 2026 FEC data) [1][2][3][4]
Scott DesJarlais Cost-Per-Vote$5.33 (October 14, 2026 FEC data) [1][2][3][4]
Broderick Campaign Spending (vs. DesJarlais)18-22% of his disbursements [1][5][6]
Victoria Broderick demonstrated significantly higher spending efficiency than DesJarlais in the 2026 TN-04 election. Broderick's campaign achieved a cost-per-vote of approximately $0.95, while Scott DesJarlais's campaign had a cost-per-vote of approximately $5.33, based on October 14, 2026 FEC disbursement data and final vote totals [1][2][3][4]. This indicates Broderick was approximately 5.6 times more cost-efficient per vote [1][2][3][4]. Broderick secured victory in Tennessee's 4th Congressional District with 95,585 votes, narrowly defeating DesJarlais, who received 95,305 votes, by a margin of 280 votes [2][7][3][4].
Broderick's campaign was substantially underfunded compared to DesJarlais's campaign. Her total disbursements were approximately 18-22% of DesJarlais's spending [1][5][6]. Earlier FEC data from July 17, 2026, also reflected a similar trend in estimated spending efficiency. At that time, DesJarlais had an estimated cost-per-vote of approximately $4.28, compared to Broderick's approximately $0.62, based on pre-primary figures [5][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Tennessee's 4th Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  2. 2Tennessee Fourth Congressional District Election Resultsnytimes.com
  3. 3County Breakdown for United States House of...elections.tn.gov
  4. 4Democrat Victoria Broderick wins Tennessee's District 4 in...wpln.org
  5. 52026 Tennessee House Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  6. 6Republican Candidates Lead the Financial Racenashvillescene.com
  7. 7Democrat Victoria Broderick appears to have upset TN...tennessean.com
  8. 8Scott DesJarlais: 2026 Tennessee U.S. House Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com

9. Where did Victoria Broderick outperform historical Democratic benchmarks within the newly-drawn Davidson and Rutherford county portions of TN-04?

Democratic vote increase (Rutherford County)122% [1]
Davidson County performanceSurprise performer (TN-04, 2026 election) [1]
District focusedTN-04 [1]
Victoria Broderick significantly boosted Democratic support within Rutherford County. In the newly-drawn TN-04 district portions of Rutherford County, Broderick achieved a substantial 122% increase in Democratic votes [1]. This performance highlights a notable impact in specific areas of the district.
Davidson County was a notable, yet undetailed, performer for Broderick in TN-04. Described as a "surprise performer" in the TN-04 district during the 2026 election, the available research does not provide specific details on where Victoria Broderick exceeded historical Democratic benchmarks within Davidson County [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1Allie Phillips for Changefacebook.com

10. How did the partisan swing in TN-04 from the 2024 to the 2026 election compare against the national generic ballot shift during the same period?

TN-04 Partisan Swing (2024-2026)Approximately 40+ points toward Democrats [1][2][3][4][5]
National Generic Ballot Shift (2024-2026)~8-10 points toward Democrats [4][5]
TN-04 2024 Republican Vote ShareApproximately 70% (Scott DesJarlais) [1]
Tennessee's 4th congressional district saw a massive partisan shift between the 2024 and 2026 elections, significantly exceeding the national generic ballot swing. The district experienced an approximate 40-point swing toward Democrats, which was roughly four to five times greater than the national generic ballot's shift of 8 to 10 points during the same period, marking TN-04 as a significant outlier [1][2][3][4][5].
TN-04 transitioned from a solid Republican stronghold to a Democratic flip in a major upset. In 2024, TN-04 was classified as a 'Solid R' district, with incumbent Scott DesJarlais (R) securing approximately 70% of the vote and the district favoring Donald Trump by 24 points [1]. However, by the 2026 election, Democrats were projected to flip TN-04, as Victoria Broderick (D) defeated DesJarlais, despite Trump having carried the district by 22 points in 2024 [2][3]. This dramatic increase in competitiveness may have been influenced by updated district boundaries enacted through state redistricting for the 2026 cycle [6][7].
Nationally, the 2026 generic ballot indicated a significant Democratic advantage compared to 2024. The national generic ballot for 2026 showed Democrats leading by D+8.9 (Silver Bulletin) or D+7.3 (Focal Data adjusted estimate), representing a notable shift from the near-even or slightly Republican-leaning environment of 2024 [4][5]. This broader national swing of 8 to 10 points toward Democrats was a factor in Democrats winning both the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms [8]. This shift also mirrored a substantial 44-point change in public perception regarding the best party to handle the cost of living compared to 2024 polling [8][5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1TN-04 2026cookpolitical.com
  2. 2Democrats projected to flip TN District 4 seat in U.S. House...facebook.com
  3. 3#Election2026 — MAJOR UPSET: Democrats projected to...facebook.com
  4. 4Who's ahead on the generic congressional ballot?natesilver.net
  5. 5US midterm elections 2026: Our final callfocaldata.com
  6. 62026 Tennessee’s 4th District race: Victoria Broderick (D) vs. Scott DesJarlais (R)2026election.com
  7. 72026 Tennessee’s 4th District race: Victoria Broderick (D) vs. Scott DesJarlais (R)2026election.com
  8. 8Democrats Win House and Senate: Live Election Updatestime.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The outcome of the TN-04 House race on November 3, 2026, represents a significant market mispricing, with Victoria Broderick (D) securing the seat by 280 votes (0.14 percentage points) over incumbent Scott DesJarlais (R) [1][2][3]. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi had DesJarlais at a 97-98% win probability just prior to the election [4][5][6]. All major race ratings, including Cook Political Report and Decision Desk, maintained a 'Solid Republican' or 'Safe Republican' rating for TN-04 through October 27, 2026 [7][8]. This result reversed DesJarlais's 43-point victory over Broderick in 2024 in the previous district configuration [2][9][10]. DesJarlais also held a roughly 7:1 fundraising advantage, raising $667,181 compared to Broderick's $94,217 [7][6][11].
The redistricting enacted by Tennessee Republicans in May 2026, with SB/HB 7001 signed by Gov. Bill Lee on May 7, 2026, redrew the congressional map and incorporated Democratic-leaning Nashville areas into the new TN-04 [12][13][14]. This redistricting was intended to eliminate the Democratic Memphis 9th District seat and achieve a 9-0 Republican House delegation [12][13]. Broderick's victory thwarted this objective, marking a rare Democratic win in Tennessee [2][13].
Given the narrow 280-vote margin, the potential for a recount procedure or an election contest remains a catalyst [15][13]. Tennessee state law as of October 2026 does not provide for automatic recounts, requiring a court challenge to trigger such a review [15][13]. County certification is expected by November 23, 2026 [16].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (16)
  1. 12026 Tennessee U.S. House Election Resultscourier-journal.com
  2. 2Democrat Victoria Broderick wins Tennessee's District 4 in...wpln.org
  3. 3Tennessee House District 4 Midterm Election 2026: Live Resultsnbcnews.com
  4. 4TN-4 House Race 2026 (Tennessee): Odds, Candidates & News | 4Search Politics4search.com
  5. 5TN-04 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
  6. 62026 Tennessee House Election Polls, Odds & Candidatespredictionedge.com
  7. 72026 Tennessee US House 4 Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 8Tennessee's 4th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  9. 9Tennessee 4th District election results 2024 live updates | The Washington Postwashingtonpost.com
  10. 10Tennessee Fourth Congressional District Election Resultsnytimes.com
  11. 11United States House District 4 — TNballotproject.org
  12. 12Democrat Victoria Broderick appears to have upset TN...tennessean.com
  13. 13Democrats upset incumbent House member in deep-red Tennessee - Axios Nashvilleaxios.com
  14. 14Tennessee 2026 General Electionthegreenpapers.com
  15. 15Election recount laws and procedures in the 50 states - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  16. 16Tennessee Election Results: November 3, 2026 General Election | Tennessee Fireflytnfirefly.com

13. Related News

+88.4pp
Last updated: November 4, 2026, 12:51 UTC

Broderick's Upset TN-04 Win Drives 88-Point Spike in Prediction Market

The release of unofficial final election results showing Democrat Victoria Broderick's stunning 280-vote victory in Tennessee's 4th Congressional District prompted a sharp and decisive repricing in th...

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXHOUSERACE-MN05-26-DJAC: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
  • KXHOUSERACE-IL04-26-CGET: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
  • KXHOUSERACE-IL04-26-MMAC: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
  • KXHOUSERACE-CA06-26-KKIL: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
  • KXHOUSERACE-WYAL-26-R: YES (Nov 04, 2026)