MO-02 House winner? Kalshi
Ann Wagner
Market Model 79.0% 83.0%
Fred Wellman
Market Model 21.0% 17.0%
Topic tracker · Elections
House Race Winner?
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 6 so far (6 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new House Race Winner? markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated August 23, 2026
Live markets
IN-04 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 92.7% 96.5%
Democratic party
Market Model 7.7% 3.5%
LA-06 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 32.0% 40.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 65.0% 59.6%
IN-05 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 84.0% 87.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 17.0% 12.2%
FL-09 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 42.0% 34.0%
Republican party
Market Model 56.0% 66.0%
TN-08 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 94.9% 97.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.0% 2.2%
