Short Answer

The Republican party is not expected to win the Wisconsin State Assembly, with the market pricing this outcome at 38.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The contract repriced sharply lower between October 8 and October 10, with the implied probability of a Republican majority in the Wisconsin State Assembly falling 41 points from 79% to 38%. The provided research context contains no specific public development, polling release, or news event that coincides with or explains this repricing.
Prior to the drop, the market had been stable at 79% since at least late September. The overwhelming majority of trading volume, 270 of 301 total contracts, occurred at this higher price level. The subsequent price collapse was registered on zero reported volume, suggesting the shift was not driven by significant new trading activity but may reflect a market maker adjustment or an event in a thinly traded order book.
  • Democratic Party leads on new maps; Marquette poll shows 48% to 45% advantage.
  • Democrats need a five-seat gain; The Recombobulation Area expects Republican retention.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Republican party 38.0% 40.3% Republicans significantly outspent Democrats from July 1–September 23, 2026.
Democratic party 66.0% 59.7% New legislative maps have substantially improved the Democratic Party's structural position.

Current Context

Wisconsin's State Assembly election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with all 99 seats contested; 50 seats are needed for a majority [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Republicans currently hold 54 seats to Democrats' 45, requiring Democrats to achieve a net gain of five seats to secure control [3][5]. The partisan primary was August 11, 2026, following a June 1 filing deadline [8][9].
Conventional experts project Republicans to retain control of the Assembly. The Recombobulation Area rates the chamber Lean Republican, indicating Democrats would need to win all three identified toss-up districts for a majority [3][5]. Marquette University Law School's July assessment similarly found 47 seats Safe/Leaning Democratic and 49 Safe/Leaning Republican, deeming the chamber a Toss-up with a slight Republican structural advantage [4]. However, WisPredict's October 10 model stands as an outlier, forecasting Democrats to win 53 seats (87.7% chance of control) versus 46 for Republicans (12.0% chance) [6][7].
Prediction markets show inconsistent and volatile probabilities for either party. Kalshi's directly indexed page showed Democratic 75% and Republican 40%; CoinRithm reported Democratic 62.3% as of October 6; Prediction Edge reported Democratic 66% and Republican 79% on October 8; and ElectionOdds displayed Democratic 66% in a September 9 snapshot [1][2][10][11]. These probabilities do not consistently sum to 100%, likely reflecting separate YES contracts, stale snapshots, or market data issues, and should not be treated as polls [1][2][10][11]. Key developments include new legislative maps following a Wisconsin Supreme Court ruling, the retirement of Republican Speaker Robin Vos, and eight other Republican Assembly members [3][5][12][8]. Battleground districts frequently identified include Assembly Districts 30, 82, 85, and 92, along with open seats in the 21st and 22nd districts, though the exact toss-up set varies by forecaster [5][12][7].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Wisconsin State Assembly winner? Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2Wisconsin State Assembly winner? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 32026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Legislaturetherecombobulationarea.com
  4. 4Rating the Battleground Districts in the Wisconsin Legislature – Marquette University Law School Faculty Bloglaw.marquette.edu
  5. 52026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Assemblytherecombobulationarea.com
  6. 6Wisconsin 2026 State Assembly Forecast | WisPredictwispredict.com
  7. 7Wisconsin 2026 Election Analysis | WisPredictwispredict.com
  8. 8Wisconsin State Assembly elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  9. 9Wisconsin Elections Commission Calendar of Election Eventselections.wi.gov
  10. 102026 Wisconsin State House Winner by Party | Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  11. 11Live odds: Wisconsin State Assembly winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  12. 12The 7 elections to determine who runs the Wisconsin Assemblyupnorthnewswi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 October 09, 2026: 41.0pp drop

Price decreased from 79.0% to 38.0%

Outcome: Republican party

What happened: The provided web research does not indicate a 41.0 percentage point drop for the Republican party in the "Wisconsin State Assembly winner?" prediction market on October 09, 2026 [1][2]. Existing prediction market data for the Wisconsin State Assembly as of early October 2026 consistently favored the Democratic party, with implied probabilities generally fluctuating within the 60-66% range [3][4]. Since no evidence supports the specified market movement, it is not possible to identify a primary driver from social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors. Social media activity, therefore, is irrelevant to explaining a movement that is not evidenced.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Texas Senate odds: Talarico's chances drop to 63% amid campaign absencenews.kalshi.com
  2. 2Kansas Senate odds tighten as Marshall's chances fall to 62%news.kalshi.com
  3. 3Wisconsin State Assembly winner? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Live odds: Wisconsin State Assembly winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the specified party (Democratic or Republican) wins the Wisconsin State Assembly, and "No" if that party does not win. Trading for this market begins on November 3, 2023, at 8:00 AM EST. The maximum payout date for the contracts is November 3, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Democratic party $0.59 $0.42 66%
Republican party $0.40 $0.61 38%

Market Discussion

As of October 10, 2026, the Democratic Party is the prediction-market favorite to win the Wisconsin State Assembly, with reported implied odds between 59% and 66%, necessitating a net gain of five seats from their current 45 [1]. While Democratic momentum and district fundamentals are cited as favorable, the Republican Party, currently holding 54 seats, could retain control if incumbents overperform and key toss-up districts do not flip [2]. The market's approximately $2.2K total volume suggests caution is warranted when interpreting these odds, as the election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and the outcome remains probabilistic [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1Wisconsin State Assembly winner? Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2Wisconsin 2026 Election Analysis | WisPredictwispredict.com
  3. 3Wisconsin State Assembly winner? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 73 Good

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score80Good
Trade quality20% of score45High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 28% of the price to slippage.

Trust score73Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
72Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXSTATELEG-WIASSEMBLY26-R carried 64% of its $521 tape (print is 2d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
39Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first

Democratic party39
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Republican party—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

Democratic party—
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Republican party—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Democratic party100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Republican party100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
45High Risk

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 39 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 63.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 63.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 17.6c slippage (~28% of a 63.5c contract)

Democratic party39Market scoreLiquidity39Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 39
Liquidity
39 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Republican party–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 23, 2026

6. How do the new 2026 legislative maps affect the partisan lean of key battleground districts identified by the Marquette University Law School Poll?

New Legislative Map Adoption DateFebruary 19, 2024 [1][2][3]
Assembly Seat Ratings (D/R/Tossup)47 D / 49 R / 3 Tossup (Marquette July 2026) [1]
2024 Republican Tossup MarginsAD51 51.66%, AD61 51.54%, AD88 50.29% [1][4][5]
The new legislative map significantly alters Wisconsin's State Assembly partisan landscape. Adopted on February 19, 2024, the map has substantially improved the structural position for Democrats, transforming the Wisconsin State Assembly from a Republican-skewed chamber into a near-even battlefield [1][2][3]. Marquette University Law School Poll's July 2026 district ratings identified three critical Tossup Assembly seats: AD51, AD61, and AD88 [1][4][5]. Under statewide result trends, AD51 and AD61 lean Democratic, while AD88 is considered the most competitive of the three [1][4][5]. In 2024, Republican winning margins in these districts were notably narrow, with approximately 51.66% in AD51, 51.54% in AD61, and 50.29% in AD88 [1][4][5].
New maps create Democratic pickup opportunities and establish key Republican defenses. The newly drawn map generates opportunities for Democrats to gain seats, reclassifying several formerly Republican-held battleground districts, such as AD21 and AD53, into Lean Democratic territory [1][4]. Other competitive districts where Republicans will defend seats include AD85, AD92, and AD30, which are currently rated Lean Republican [1][4]. Meanwhile, districts AD15, AD22, AD24, and AD82 are considered Safe Republican [1][4]. According to Marquette's July 2026 district ratings, the Assembly comprises 47 seats in Safe or Leaning Democratic territory and 49 in Safe or Leaning Republican territory, alongside the three identified Tossup seats [1].
Democrats face a narrow path to majority, despite improved statewide competitiveness. To secure a one-seat majority in the Assembly, Democrats would need to sweep all three Tossup districts—AD51, AD61, and AD88—indicating a slight Republican advantage in the seat-map [1][3]. Consequently, overall chamber control is rated as a Tossup, though with a slight Republican lean [1][3]. This district-level competitiveness is further supported by a September 2026 Marquette statewide legislative vote question, which showed Democrats ahead 48%-45% among likely voters, affirming their overall competitiveness [1][6][3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Rating the Battleground Districts in the Wisconsin Legislaturelaw.marquette.edu
  2. 2Redistricting in Wisconsinballotpedia.org
  3. 3Handicapping The 2026 State Legislative Map: A First Lookcenterforpolitics.org
  4. 42026 Wisconsin State Assembly electionen.wikipedia.org
  5. 52026 elections - PollsAndVotespollsandvotes.com
  6. 6Marquette Law School Poll – A Comprehensive Look at the...law.marquette.edu

7. What evidence underpins The Recombobulation Area's projection that Republicans will retain control of the Assembly in the November 2026 election?

Projected Republican Seats49 seats [1][2]
Projected Democratic Seats47 seats [1][2]
Seats for Democrats to flip5 seats [2][3]
Republicans are projected to maintain control of the Wisconsin State Assembly. The Recombobulation Area forecasts that Republicans will retain control of the Wisconsin State Assembly in the November 2026 election. This projection anticipates a final breakdown of 49 Republican seats to 47 Democratic seats, with the ultimate majority depending on the outcome of 3 toss-up races [1][2].
Flipping the Assembly presents significant challenges for Democrats. This projection is based on several factors, including the substantial effort required for Democrats to secure five additional seats. The analysis also considers the historical advantage of Republican incumbency. Additionally, the analysis notes that Democrats have not yet successfully won all of their targeted swing-district races, even under what were described as favorable conditions [2][3].
The Assembly chamber is rated as "Lean Republican" by The Recombobulation Area. While Democrats are expected to make gains and reduce the Republican majority, flipping the Assembly is considered a steeper challenge compared to the state Senate [1][2].
Sources (3)
  1. 12026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State...therecombobulationarea.com
  2. 22026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Assemblytherecombobulationarea.com
  3. 3Key retirements and poor polling for Republicans suggest Assembly majority is in play for Democratstherecombobulationarea.com

8. How do the Democratic and Republican party committees compare in fundraising and spending for Wisconsin State Assembly races for the 2026 election cycle?

RACC Fundraising (Jul 1-Sep 23)Raised $6.2 million, spent $14.3 million [1][2]
ADCC Fundraising (Jul 1-Sep 23)Raised $6.01 million, spent $3 million [1][2]
State Party Fundraising (2026 thru Aug)Republicans $43 million vs. Democrats $22.2 million [3]
Republican and Democratic committees showed distinct fundraising and spending patterns. Between July 1 and September 23, 2026, the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee (RACC) raised approximately $6.2 million and spent about $14.3 million. In contrast, the Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee (ADCC) raised around $6.01 million and spent approximately $3 million during the same period [1][2]. A significant portion of RACC's receipts, roughly $5.5 million, originated from Diane Hendricks. For the ADCC, major reported donors included a Munger family member who contributed $2.5 million, Wendy Munger with $1 million, and Lynde Uihlein providing $250,000 [1][2].
Republicans maintained a substantial fundraising lead across Wisconsin committees in 2026. For the calendar year 2026 through the August reporting cycle, RACC had accumulated approximately $11.2 million, while ADCC had raised about $4.1 million [3]. More broadly, Republican state and legislative committees combined had raised approximately $43 million in 2026 through August, compared to $22.2 million for their Democratic counterparts, indicating a roughly 1.9-to-1 Republican advantage [3]. This comparison represents a snapshot and not the final totals for the election cycle, as further disclosures were pending [3]. Wisconsin campaign finance rules permit legislative party committees to make unlimited contributions to candidate committees and other party committees, thereby making their fundraising and spending directly relevant to outcomes in Assembly races [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1GOP outspending Democrats in battle for Wisconsin...wpr.org
  2. 2Billionaire Diane Hendricks helps Wisconsin Republicans...wisconsinexaminer.com
  3. 3Wisconsin Republicans carry cash advantage into...jsonline.com
  4. 4Campaign Finance: Contribution Limits - WI Ethics Commissionethics.wi.gov

9. What is the release schedule for key non-partisan polling, such as the Marquette University Law School Poll, for the remainder of the 2026 election cycle?

Marquette Poll Releases ConfirmedJuly 22, August 26, and September 30, 2026 [1]
Democratic Support in September 30 Poll48% [1][2][3]
Wisconsin General Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [4]
The Marquette Law School Poll has confirmed three releases for 2026. The Marquette University Law School Poll has confirmed releases for July 22, August 26, and September 30, 2026. The July 22 release was based on a survey conducted from July 8–16, while the August 26 release covered a survey period of August 12–20 [1][5][6]. However, as of October 10, 2026, available search results do not document an announced Marquette release date, field period, or final pre-election poll for October or November 2026, indicating that a precise remaining schedule cannot be established from current sources [1][7][2][3].
The September 30 poll provided specific legislative ballot findings. The September 30 release included findings from a survey conducted between September 16–23. This poll featured a Wisconsin legislative generic-ballot question, which reported that 48% of likely voters favored the Democratic legislative candidate, 45% supported the Republican candidate, and 7% remained undecided [1][2][3]. While the Marquette Law School Poll is identified as the primary documented nonpartisan Wisconsin statewide polling source, a confirmed remainder-of-cycle release calendar for Marquette or other nonpartisan pollsters is not available [1][8][9][2][3][10][4][11][5][6]. The 2026 Wisconsin general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [4].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Marquette Law School Poll – A Comprehensive Look at the...law.marquette.edu
  2. 2Detailed results of the Marquette Law School Wisconsin Poll: September 16 – 23, 2026 – Marquette Law School Polllaw.marquette.edu
  3. 3Marquette Law Poll finds that Wisconsin governor’s race remains tight; Crowley 49%, Tiffany 46% among likely voters – Marquette Law School Polllaw.marquette.edu
  4. 4New Marquette Law School Poll finds large majority of Wisconsin voters not yet tuned in to who is running in major 2026 elections – Marquette Law School Polllaw.marquette.edu
  5. 5Detailed results of the Marquette Law School Wisconsin Poll: August 12 – 20, 2026 – Marquette Law School Polllaw.marquette.edu
  6. 6Detailed results of the Marquette Law School Wisconsin Poll-July 8 – 16, 2026 – Marquette Law School Polllaw.marquette.edu
  7. 7[PDF] Marquette Law School Poll Methodology Statement Sept 16-23...law.marquette.edu
  8. 8Wisconsin voters prepare to cast ballots, even as some remain...wpr.org
  9. 9Jessie Opoien Breaks Down Wisconsin's Tight Midterm Raceswortfm.org
  10. 10Detailed results of the Marquette Law School Wisconsin Follow-Up Poll-July 22 – 27, 2026 – Marquette Law School Polllaw.marquette.edu
  11. 11New Marquette Law School national survey finds Democrats expand lead on congressional ballots; Trump approval declines – Marquette Law School Polllaw.marquette.edu

10. How might voter turnout for the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections influence down-ballot results in marginal Assembly districts?

Democratic voter certainty85% (compared to 78% Republican, 61% Independent) [1]
Generic legislative ballot (likely voters)48% Democratic to 45% Republican [1]
Democratic gubernatorial primary votes (2026)793,000 votes (47% above 2018 primary) [2]
Voter turnout in statewide elections will significantly impact down-ballot Assembly outcomes. The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections are expected to be principal drivers of results in marginal Assembly districts [1][3]. The governor's race, in particular, is anticipated to strongly influence down-ballot contests due to its close nature. Similarly, the U.S. Senate election is projected to shape the statewide partisan environment and voter participation levels [1][3]. A high-turnout Democratic statewide coalition would likely enhance Democratic chances in marginal Assembly districts through straight-ticket voting and shared-campaign effects. Conversely, a substantial Republican turnout, especially if their gubernatorial candidate outperforms expectations, would serve to protect or reclaim narrowly held Republican seats [1].
Current indicators suggest an advantage for Democratic turnout and legislative prospects. Polling data currently shows a stronger Democratic turnout signal, with 85% of Democratic respondents certain to vote compared to 78% of Republicans and 61% of independents [1]. This same poll indicated the generic legislative ballot favors Democrats, 48% to 45% among likely voters [1]. Further evidence of Democratic engagement comes from Wisconsin's August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, which drew over 793,000 votes, a 47% increase from the 2018 contested Democratic primary, though this remains a primary-based indicator and may not fully translate to November [2]. While a competitive U.S. Senate race could reduce drop-off and mobilize party voters, a reliable October 2026 Senate poll or candidate-specific margin had not been made available to confidently quantify its effects [1][3]. Prediction markets currently lean Democratic for control of the Wisconsin Assembly, with reported prices at approximately 66% Democratic on ElectionOdds, though these should be considered noisy market quotes [4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Marquette Law Poll finds that Wisconsin governor's race...today.marquette.edu
  2. 2Wikler Predicts Democratic Wave in Novemberurbanmilwaukee.com
  3. 3As Democrats eye big midterm gains, the Wisconsin governor's...nbcnews.com
  4. 42026 Wisconsin State House Winner by Party | Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  5. 5Wisconsin State Assembly winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  6. 6State House Markets | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Wisconsin State Assembly winner market currently favors Democrats, with displayed prices varying by source and timestamp: Kalshi shows Democratic Party 75% and Republican Party 40%, ElectionOdds reports Democrat 66% as of September 9, and CoinRithm reports Democrat 62.3% as of October 6, 2026 [1][2][3]. These are traded-implied probabilities, not polls, and should be treated as approximate because the contract is two-sided and prices may not sum to 100% [1][2][3]. Independent forecast evidence also leans Democratic; WisPredict projects Democrats winning 53 of 99 seats and gives Democratic control an 87.7% probability versus 12.0% Republican [4][5]. State Navigate is more conservative, projecting Democrats 51 and Republicans 48 [6]. Democrats need a net gain of at least five seats for a majority, from the current reported composition of Republicans 54, Democrats 45 [4][5][6][7].
A bullish catalyst for Democrats is a favorable midterm and map environment. Democrats already flipped 10 Assembly seats under the new maps in 2024, and forecasts identify multiple Republican-held toss-ups as the likely control tipping point [4][5][8][7]. A broad Democratic wave, strong gubernatorial or down-ballot performance, or late Republican retirements and weak nominees would improve Democratic control odds [4][5][8][7]. All 99 Assembly seats are on the November 3, 2026 general-election ballot [9][7][10]. Correlated catalysts could include a Democratic statewide wave, gubernatorial result, or competitive House result, especially in WI-03 [11][10][12].
Conversely, a bearish catalyst for Democrats is a failure to convert the narrow battleground seats. Republicans can retain control by holding their competitive districts and preventing a net gain of five seats [4][5][8][7]. Incumbency, Republican turnout, a strong GOP statewide ticket, or Democratic underperformance in the identified toss-ups would move the market toward Republicans [4][5][8][7]. The market's specified election date is November 3, 2026, though resolution may depend on the contract's formal definition of control after the new Assembly is seated [1][3][9]. CoinRithm states settlement is based on which party holds more seats two weeks after the Assembly is seated, with a tie resolving No for the Democratic contract [1][3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (12)
  1. 1Wisconsin State Assembly winner? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  2. 2Wisconsin State Assembly winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  3. 3Wisconsin State Assembly winner? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Wisconsin 2026 Election Analysis | WisPredictwispredict.com
  5. 5Wisconsin 2026 State Assembly Forecast | WisPredictwispredict.com
  6. 62026 Wisconsin State Legislative Forecast | State Navigateprojects.statenavigate.com
  7. 7Read 5 predictions for Wisconsin politics in 2026wisconsinwatch.org
  8. 82026 Wisconsin State Assembly electionen.wikipedia.org
  9. 9Wisconsin State Assembly elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  10. 102026 Wisconsin Elections, Odds & Candidates | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  11. 11Which party will win the Wisconsin State Senate in 2026?polymarket.com
  12. 12Wisconsin Midterm Elections: Prediction Market Leaders Today – Forbes Advisorforbes.com