Short Answer

David Crowley is expected to win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race, holding a 49% to 44% lead among likely voters in an August 2026 Marquette Law School Poll and projected by Decision Desk HQ with a 69% probability, priced at 80.0% by the market.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market for a Democratic victory in the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election has been stable, pricing in the established general election matchup between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany. The non-candidacy of incumbent Democrat Tony Evers creates an open-seat race, a fundamental factor that appears baked into the contract's narrow trading range of 19% to 22%.
The contract's minor dip from 21% to 19% in early September does not coincide with any specific development reported in the provided context. The sideways trend and total volume of 31,356 contracts suggest the market has found a tentative equilibrium based on the known candidates and the state's competitive political environment, with no significant new information yet driving a breakout.
  • Since last update (~27d): Tom Tiffany's market probability decreased by 6.0pp; our model tracked, widening our edge.
  • Our model's edge over the market widened by 3.5pp, now standing at 6.1pp.
  • David Crowley's market probability increased by 3.0pp, while our model rose by 2.5pp.
  • The confidence score remained stable at 8.0, indicating no change in assessment.
  • Democratic nominee David Crowley leads among likely voters 49% to 44%.
  • Decision Desk HQ rates the race 'Lean Democratic' for Crowley.
  • However, candidates are tied at 44% among all registered voters.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Tom Tiffany 19.0% 25.1% Tom Tiffany is tied with David Crowley among all registered voters in an August 2026 poll.
David Crowley 80.0% 74.9% David Crowley leads among likely voters in an August 2026 Marquette Law School Poll.

Current Context

Wisconsin's 2026 gubernatorial election features two main contenders. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1], [2]. Incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers is not seeking re-election [1], [3]. The major party nominees are Democrat David Crowley, the Milwaukee County Executive, and Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany [1], [2]. Independent write-in candidate Jamie Jo Carothers is also listed on the ballot [2].
Polling indicates a tight race, with a Democratic lead among likely voters. As of August 2026, a Marquette Law School Poll found the candidates tied at 44% among all registered voters [4], [5]. Among likely voters, Democrat David Crowley led Republican Tom Tiffany 49% to 44% [4], [5]. In early September 2026, Decision Desk HQ rated the race as Lean Democratic [6], [7]. Their predictive models projected David Crowley with a 69% probability of winning, against 31% for Tom Tiffany [6], [2].
Debate schedules adjusted, impacting Wisconsin's state government control. The Wisconsin Broadcasters Association Foundation canceled its planned October 9, 2026, gubernatorial debate after both candidates failed to confirm participation [8], [9]. A separate debate between Crowley and Tiffany remains scheduled for October 21, 2026, hosted by WISN 12 [8]. The election's outcome will influence Wisconsin's state government trifecta and triplex status; Democrats currently hold a triplex, but neither party holds a trifecta [3], [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 12026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Wisconsin gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Crowley, Tiffany run in Wisconsin governor race that will influence trifecta, triplex status - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Marquette Law Poll finds Crowley leading Tiffany among likely voters, tied among all registered voters | Marquette Todaytoday.marquette.edu
  5. 5Here and Now | Charles Franklin on Polling Voters About Crowley and Tiffany | Season 2500 | Episode 2509 | PBSpbs.org
  6. 62026 Wisconsin Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 72026 Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 8Wisconsin Broadcasters Association Foundation cancels gubernatorial debatewbay.com
  9. 9WBA Foundation announces cancellation of 2026 gubernatorial debatewmtv15news.com
  10. 10Wisconsin Democrats ask state commission to let mail-in voters recast ballots after changes to gubernatorial candidate field - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For a contract regarding a specific candidate, a 'Yes' resolution occurs if that candidate, representing their stated party, wins the Wisconsin Governor election. A 'No' resolution occurs if that candidate does not win, with the market's resolution being determined by the winning party of the election. Trading for this market begins on November 3, 8:00 AM EST, and the maximum payout date for settlement is November 3, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
David Crowley $0.81 $0.20 80%
Tom Tiffany $0.20 $0.81 19%

Market Discussion

The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, features nominees David Crowley (D) and U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany (R), as incumbent Governor Tony Evers is not seeking re-election [1]. Following Crowley's upset primary victory in August 2026, prediction markets experienced significant volatility, with Tiffany's win probability dropping sharply to 20-25% [2]. This has led to skepticism about early general election polling, while major election forecasters rated the contest as a Toss-up or Lean Democratic as of August 2026 [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1Wisconsin Democratic Gov. Tony Evers won't seek re-election in 2026usatoday.com
  2. 2Tiffany Drops to 24% in Wisconsin Gov Race | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 83 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score76Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score83Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
78Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first

Tom Tiffany67
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

David Crowley83
Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

David Crowley—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Tom Tiffany—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

David Crowley100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Tom Tiffany100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
76Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 79 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 83.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 83.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 2.0c slippage (~2% of a 83.5c contract)

David Crowley83Market scoreLiquidity83Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 83
Liquidity
83 · Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Tom Tiffany67Market scoreLiquidity67Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 67
Liquidity
67 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 26, 2026

5. What polling and forecast models underpin the 'Lean Democratic' rating for David Crowley in the 2026 gubernatorial race?

DDHQ Win Probability69-70% (Decision Desk HQ) [1][2][3]
DDHQ Projected MarginD+7 (Decision Desk HQ) [1][2][3]
Prediction Market Probability78-83% (Polymarket and Kalshi) [4][5][6]
David Crowley holds a 'Lean Democratic' rating for the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial race. Prominent organizations, including Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) and Sabato's Crystal Ball, have assigned this designation [7][1][2][3][8]. The DDHQ forecast model, which informs this assessment, incorporates a blend of factors: 58% fundamentals (such as partisan baseline, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and campaign finance), 21% polls, and 21% market data [1][2][3]. As of September 2026, this model projects David Crowley with an approximate 69-70% win probability and a projected margin of D+7 [1][2][3]. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball issued its 'Lean Democratic' rating following Crowley's victory in the August 11, 2026, Democratic primary [7][8].
Recent polling and market data reinforce Crowley's projected advantage. An August 12-20, 2026, Marquette Law School Poll notably indicated Crowley leading Republican Tom Tiffany 49%-44% among likely voters [9][10]. Furthermore, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, as of September 9, 2026, assign David Crowley a 78%-83% probability of winning the election [4][5][6].
Sources (10)
  1. 12026 Wisconsin Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 Wisconsin Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 Wisconsin Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4https://polymarket.com/event/wisconsin-governor-winner-2026?r=predictionhuntnewswidgetpolymarket.com
  5. 5Wisconsin Governor Election Winner - Polymarketpolymarket.com
  6. 6Wisconsin Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  7. 7Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race Moves to Leans Democratic After the...centerforpolitics.org
  8. 8Wisconsin gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Marquette Law Poll finds Crowley leading Tiffany among likely...today.marquette.edu
  10. 10Crowley leading Tiffany in first Marquette head-to-head poll... - WPRwpr.org

6. How do David Crowley's and Tom Tiffany's platforms on key Wisconsin issues like the economy, education, and abortion rights compare?

David Crowley's Key PrioritiesAffordability, job creation, and strengthening schools (1) [1]
Tom Tiffany's Key PrioritiesPro-business tax policies, fiscal responsibility, and restrictions on abortion (1, 2) [1]
David Crowley's Current RoleMilwaukee County Executive and Democratic nominee (2) [1]
David Crowley's platform emphasizes affordability, local economy, and early education. As the Democratic nominee and current Milwaukee County Executive, Crowley centers his campaign on job creation, strengthening schools, and enhancing affordability for Wisconsin residents. He advocates for an economic model that prioritizes local ownership and union labor. A key educational initiative proposed by Crowley involves investments in universal early childhood education. However, Crowley's record regarding property and sales taxes has drawn scrutiny during his tenure [1].
Tom Tiffany prioritizes pro-business policies, fiscal responsibility, and abortion restrictions. The Republican nominee champions tax policies favorable to businesses and advocates for overall fiscal responsibility. On social issues, Tiffany supports restrictions on abortion. His platform also includes specific commitments such as ending state subsidies for data centers, alongside pledges to protect ratepayers, farmland, and water [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1Tom Tiffany: 2026 Wisconsin Governor Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com

7. How might the October 21 gubernatorial debate hosted by WISN 12 impact polling trends between Crowley and Tiffany?

Crowley vs. Tiffany (likely voters)Crowley 49%, Tiffany 44% (Marquette Law School Poll, late August 2026) [1][2]
Debate DateOctober 21, 2026 [3][4][5][6][7]
Prediction Market - Dem Win Probability78-83% (early September 2026) [8][9][10][11]
The WISN 12 debate is a critical, final opportunity for candidates. The televised debate between gubernatorial candidates David Crowley and Tom Tiffany is scheduled for Wednesday, October 21, 2026, at the Lubar Center at Marquette University Law School. This event is the only confirmed televised debate between the two major candidates and holds significant importance. It occurs just one day after early in-person absentee voting commences in Wisconsin, presenting a crucial final opportunity for candidates to influence voters before ballots are cast [3][4][5][6][7].
David Crowley currently holds a polling lead heading into the debate. As of late August 2026, polls indicated a lead for Democrat David Crowley over Republican Tom Tiffany. A Marquette Law School Poll showed Crowley with 49% support to Tiffany's 44% among likely voters, though the race was tied at 44% each among all registered voters [1][2]. Other polls from August 2026 also placed Crowley ahead by approximately four percentage points, with one Marquette University Law School poll in mid-August reporting a statistical tie [12][13]. Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, as of early September 2026, consistently favored David Crowley, with implied probabilities for a Democratic victory ranging from 78% to 83% [8][9][10][11]. Decision Desk HQ similarly assigned Crowley a 69-70% probability of winning by late August 2026, with election forecasters generally rating the race as either a Toss-up or Lean Democratic [6][13][14].
The debate's specific impact on polling trends remains unknown. Despite the strategic timing and potential significance of this event, currently available sources do not provide specific expert consensus or market data explicitly projecting how this debate will impact future polling trends between David Crowley and Tom Tiffany [6].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Marquette Law Poll finds Crowley leading Tiffany among likely...today.marquette.edu
  2. 2Crowley leading Tiffany in first Marquette head-to-head poll... - WPRwpr.org
  3. 3WISN 12 to Host Debate Between David Crowley and Tom Tiffanywisn.com
  4. 4WISN 12 to Host Crowley-Tiffany Governor Debate Oct. 21 - The Heartland Postheartlandpost.com
  5. 5Crowley, Tiffany Set Date for Televised Debate » Urban Milwaukeeurbanmilwaukee.com
  6. 6Crowley, Tiffany run in Wisconsin governor race that will influence trifecta, triplex status - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  7. 7Governor of Wisconsin - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 8Wisconsin Governor Election Winner - Polymarketpolymarket.com
  9. 9Wisconsin Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  10. 10https://polymarket.com/event/wisconsin-governor-winner-2026?r=cbpmpolymarket.com
  11. 11https://polymarket.com/event/wisconsin-governor-winner-2026?r=predictionhuntnewswidgetpolymarket.com
  12. 12Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  13. 132026 Wisconsin Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  14. 142026 Wisconsin Governor Markets | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com

8. What do the demographic breakdowns from the Marquette Law School Poll reveal about each candidate's core support and areas for growth?

David Crowley (Overall Support)49% (Marquette Law School Poll, August 20, 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Tom Tiffany (Overall Support)44% (Marquette Law School Poll, August 20, 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Crowley vs Tiffany (Independent Voters)Crowley 55%, Tiffany 16% [5][6]
Candidates David Crowley and Tom Tiffany exhibit strong, polarized partisan support. The Marquette Law School Poll from late August 2026 indicates that Democrat David Crowley receives 98% support from likely Democratic voters, while Republican Tom Tiffany maintains 91% support among likely Republican voters [5][6]. Among independent likely voters, Crowley holds a substantial advantage, leading Tiffany 55% to 16% [5][6].
Overall poll results show a lead for Crowley, with undecided voters presenting growth opportunities. The August 20, 2026, Marquette Law School Poll among likely voters places David Crowley at 49% and Tom Tiffany at 44%, with 7% remaining undecided [1][2][3][4]. Growth opportunities for both candidates primarily exist among these undecided voters, who represent 7% of likely voters and 12% of registered voters [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  2. 2Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  3. 32026 Wisconsin Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 42026 Wisconsin Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5Marquette Law Poll finds Crowley leading Tiffany among likely...today.marquette.edu
  6. 6Marquette Law School Poll – A Comprehensive Look at the...law.marquette.edu

9. What is Tom Tiffany's most viable path to victory, and which voter demographics must he win over from David Crowley?

Registered Voter Poll (Late Aug 2026)44% Tiffany, 44% Crowley (Marquette Law School) [1][2]
Likely Voter Poll (Late Aug 2026)44% Tiffany, 49% Crowley (Marquette Law School) [1][2]
Decision Desk HQ Probability (Late Aug 2026)Crowley 69-70%, Tiffany 31% [3]
Tom Tiffany's path to victory involves maximizing turnout and expanding his appeal. His strategy relies on maximizing turnout in rural northern Wisconsin and significantly improving his performance in the suburban WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) [4][5][6][7]. To secure a win, he must attract moderate, suburban swing voters and maintain high enthusiasm within his Republican base [4][2][5]. This approach aims to counter David Crowley's strong support bases in Milwaukee and Madison [4][5][6][7].
David Crowley leads among likely voters in recent polls, positioning himself as a results-driven moderate [4][2][5]. Recent polling from late August 2026 by Marquette Law School indicates a highly competitive race, showing a tie between both candidates at 44% among all registered voters [1][2]. However, among likely voters, Crowley holds a lead with 49% to Tiffany's 44% [1][2]. Public polling has generally shown mixed outcomes, with some surveys indicating a tie and others giving Crowley a lead of up to 4 percentage points [3].
Prediction markets currently favor David Crowley to win, suggesting a challenging path for Tiffany. In mid-August 2026, some estimates put Tiffany's odds of winning at approximately 24% following Crowley's primary victory [7]. More recent assessments from late August 2026 by Decision Desk HQ provide David Crowley with a 69-70% probability of winning, while Tom Tiffany's probability stands at 31% [3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Crowley, Tiffany tied in Wisconsin governor's race: Poll - The Hillthehill.com
  2. 2Marquette Law Poll finds Crowley leading Tiffany among likely...today.marquette.edu
  3. 32026 Wisconsin Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4David Crowley's Razor-Thin Wisconsin Primary Win Sets Up a...news.wttw.com
  5. 5Crowley leads Tiffany by 4 points in new head-to-head poll of likely...wpr.org
  6. 6Wisconsin GOP Governor Odds Halved to 20% With Tiffany as Nominee | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com
  7. 7Tiffany Drops to 24% in Wisconsin Gov Race - Polls & Odds | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election is an open seat race scheduled for November 3, 2026, following incumbent Governor Tony Evers' decision not to seek re-election [1]. Democratic nominee David Crowley and Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany are the major party candidates, with Jamie Jo Carothers also on the ballot as an Independent write-in [1][2][3][4][5]. As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets and recent polls characterize the race as leaning Democratic, with David Crowley holding a modest lead over Tom Tiffany [6][7][8]. Decision Desk HQ's forecast currently gives David Crowley a 69% probability of winning [3][4].
Key catalysts influencing the race's trajectory include David Crowley's establishment momentum and fundraising, which are bullish factors for Democrats [9]. Conversely, bearish risks for Democrats, implying bullish outlooks for Republicans, arise from national political headwinds, Wisconsin's status as a swing-state, and potential shifts in suburban Milwaukee turnout [9]. Upcoming deadlines for voter registration on October 14, 2026, and in-person registration and absentee ballot requests on October 30, 2026, represent further event-driven catalysts preceding the general election on November 3, 2026 [10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (10)
  1. 12026 Wisconsin gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Wisconsin — Governor — 2026 forecast — Akashicakashic.app
  3. 32026 Wisconsin Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4Crowley, Tiffany run in Wisconsin governor race that will influence trifecta, triplex status - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Wisconsin gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Marquette Law Poll finds Crowley leading Tiffany among likely voters, tied among all registered voters – Marquette Law School Polllaw.marquette.edu
  7. 7David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany in first fall gubernatorial pollwisconsinwatch.org
  8. 8https://polymarket.com/event/wisconsin-governor-winner-2026?r=cbpmpolymarket.com
  9. 9Will a Democrat Win the Wisconsin Governor Race? Winner Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  10. 10DEADLINES FOR ELECTIONS - MyVote WImyvote.wi.gov

12. Related News

-39.0pp
Last updated: September 9, 2026, 21:56 UTC

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