California Lieutenant Governor
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Fiona Ma demonstrates strong fundraising and extensive endorsements.
- Toni Atkins shows robust fundraising, making her highly competitive.
- Brian Dahle, the leading Republican, faces California's strong Democratic lean.
- Other candidates generally lack strong fundraising or major endorsements.
- The race appears to be consolidating around two major Democratic contenders.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiona Ma | 70.0% | 50.9% | Fiona Ma has strong fundraising projections, significant union endorsements, and reported poll surges. |
| Josh Fryday | 23.0% | 30.6% | Josh Fryday is a strong Democratic contender in a competitive field for the lieutenant governorship. |
| Gloria Romero | 1.1% | 1.9% | Gloria Romero faces strong competition and has limited reported campaign resources. |
| Michael Tubbs | 14.0% | 10.9% | Michael Tubbs has a recognized profile but faces well-funded and established opponents. |
| Oliver Ma | 0.2% | 1.9% | Oliver Ma's campaign has limited public visibility and fundraising compared to leading candidates. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Josh Fryday
📉 April 22, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 44.0% to 33.0%
📈 April 21, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 35.0% to 44.0%
Outcome: Fiona Ma
📉 April 20, 2026: 19.0pp drop
Price decreased from 73.0% to 54.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to Yes if Fiona Ma wins the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor election, as officially certified by the State of California; otherwise, it resolves to No. The market opened on January 31, 2026, and closes upon official declaration of the winner or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 AM EDT, with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing. Contested results are settled by the final certified outcome from the relevant electoral authority or highest court, and if results are annulled before the winner takes office, the market remains open until a re-run election or its expiration.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiona Ma | $0.64 | $0.41 | 70% |
| Josh Fryday | $0.26 | $0.78 | 23% |
| Michael Tubbs | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Brian Dahle | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Gloria Romero | $0.06 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Oliver Ma | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| David Fennell | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Janelle Kellman | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Tim Myers | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Trust Index
“Gloria Romero” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 4% of the price to slippage.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. Which Candidates Show Strongest Fundraising Leading into Q1 2026?
| Fiona Ma Projected Cash (mid-2025) | More than $1.6 million [1] |
|---|---|
| Toni Atkins Cash on Hand (Dec 31, 2024) | $1,570,361 [2] |
| Fiona Ma Top Donor Group (2024 Cycle) | Retired ($253,300) [3] |
Sources (6)
- 1FIONA MA RAISES NEARLY $1 MILLION IN FIRST HALF OF 2025 IN LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR RACE - Fiona Ma for Lieutenant Governorfionama.com
- 2Toni Atkins - California Candidate - Transparency USAtransparencyusa.org
- 3Fiona Ma for Lieutenant Governor 2026 - California Committee - Transparency USAtransparencyusa.org
- 4California’s 2026 Lieutenant Governor Race Takes Shape Ahead of June Primaryballotblog.com
- 5The Ballot Book | Fiona Ma for Lieutenant Governor 2026 - Committeetheballotbook.com
- 6Kevin De Leon for Lieutenant Governor 2026 - California Committee - Transparency USAtransparencyusa.org
7. Which Democratic LG Candidates Show Regional Strength Against Brian Dahle?
| 2026 LG Primary Regional Data | Not available from Berkeley IGS polls [1] |
|---|---|
| Berkeley IGS Poll Reports | General links provided, but no detailed regional breakdowns for head-to-head matchups [1] |
| Relevant News & Releases | Focus on gubernatorial races, older cycles, or other firms' polls, not 2026 LG regional data [2] |
Sources (3)
- 12026 Berkeley IGS Poll Releases | Institute of Governmental Studiesigs.berkeley.edu
- 2New Polling Shows California Lieutenant Governor Race Wide Open | Josh Fryday for California Lieutenant Governor 2026joshfryday.com
- 3<em>Breaking</em> New Berkeley IGS Statewide Survey Reveals A Wide-Open California Governor’s Race Defined By Fragmentation, Not Momentumsodoesitmatter.com
8. Which Negative Attack Narratives Receive Most Funding or Impact Favorability?
| Independent Expenditure Funding for Negative Narratives | Not available from provided sources [1] |
|---|---|
| Greatest Negative Impact on Favorability | Not conclusively demonstrated by provided sources [2] |
| Fiona Ma's Lt. Gov. Poll Standing | Surges and Gains Momentum despite allegations [3] |
Sources (4)
- 1Kevin De Leon for Lieutenant Governor 2026 - California Committee - Transparency USAtransparencyusa.org
- 2California’s 2026 Lieutenant Governor Race Takes Shape Ahead of June Primaryballotblog.com
- 3California Treasurer Fiona Ma Faces Sexual Harassment Allegations, But Surges In Lt. Gov. Poll - Sacramento Todaynationaltoday.com
- 4Scandal vs. Support: Fiona Ma Gains Momentum In California Lieutenant Governor Primary - AOLaol.com
9. What Endorsements Bolster Fiona Ma's Lieutenant Governor Campaign?
| Labor Union Endorsement | California Federation of Labor Unions [1] |
|---|---|
| Legislative Support | Majority of Assembly Democrats [2] |
| Delegate Endorsements | 2025 California Democratic Delegates [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1California Lieutenant Governor Candidate Fiona Ma Endorsed by California Federation of Labor Unions - Fiona Ma for Lieutenant Governorfionama.com
- 2Fiona Ma, CPA Endorsed By Majority Of Assembly Democrats In Her Campaign For Lieutenant Governor - Fiona Ma for Lieutenant Governorfionama.com
- 32025 CA Delegates Endorsement List - Fiona Ma for Lieutenant Governorfionama.com
- 4Endorsements - Fiona Ma for Lieutenant Governorfionama.com
- 5California 2026 Poll: Swalwell Takes Lead in Governor Primary, 25% undecided; Election for LA Mayor Wide Open - Emerson Pollingemersoncollegepolling.com
10. Are 2026 California Lieutenant Governor Primary Debates Scheduled?
| 2026 CA Lt. Governor Debate Schedule | Not available in provided material [1] |
|---|---|
| Post-Debate Polling Spikes Data | Not offered in provided sources [2]. |
| Post-Debate Fundraising Spikes Data | Not offered in provided sources [2]. |
Sources (4)
- 1Guide to California’s lieutenant governor race 2026 | Sacramento Beesacbee.com
- 2California governor race debates set for April, May. Where to watchusatoday.com
- 3CBS-owned California Stations host the state's largest gubernatorial debate - CBS Los Angelescbsnews.com
- 4KTVU FOX 2 to host California gubernatorial debate on Feb. 3: What to know | KTVU FOX 2ktvu.com