Alaska Governor 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~184d): Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins's model probability surged +73.5pp, market-led with a widened edge.
- Tom Begich's model probability dropped -31.1pp, market-led with a compressed edge.
- Treg Taylor's model probability declined -11.4pp, a model-led move with a compressed edge.
- Confidence increased +1.0pp; Bill Walker and Lesil McGuire were added as new outcomes.
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins holds a clear lead, consistently backed by strong polling and simulations. Bernadette Wilson faces structural hurdles despite a Trump endorsement; Republican vote split persists. * Tom Begich withdrew from the race, endorsing Kreiss-Tomkins, making his election impossible.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Begich | 0.1% | 0.1% | Tom Begich publicly withdrew from the race and endorsed Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, making his election impossible. |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 89.0% | 83.0% | Consistent strong polling and favorable ranked-choice simulations show a clear lead as Election Day approaches. |
| Bernadette Wilson | 11.0% | 11.0% | Donald Trump endorsed her, but her path is challenged by a persistent three-way Republican split. |
| Treg Taylor | 1.1% | 1.2% | His continued presence in the race contributes to the fragmentation of the Republican vote, despite some polling support. |
| Dave Bronson | 1.0% | 1.1% | An outlier forecast from Polling Forecast projected a win, but most other data indicates very low support. |
Current Context
Sources (8)
- 12026 Polls: Alaska Governor - 270toWin270towin.com
- 22026 Alaska Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 3Alaska Governor Odds 2026: Live Market Predictionsdefirate.com
- 4Alaska Survey Research: 2026 polls · 99chambers99chambers.app
- 5Alaska governor: 2026 forecast | Polling Forecastpollingforecast.com
- 6Poll shows Democrat with lead in Alaska governor’s race, but large swaths remain undecidedalaskapublic.org
- 7Your Alaska voter guide: Compare candidates and their positionsalaskapublic.org
- 8Alaska 2026 ballot: United States Senator, Governor / Lieutenant Governor candidates | Ballot Atlasballotatlas.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 October 22, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 19.0% to 10.0%
Outcome: Bernadette Wilson
Sources (5)
- 1Alaska — Governor · Scrutinelscrutinel.com
- 2Alaska Governor 2026 Polls & Polling Average | Alaska Politics Trackeralaskapoliticstracker.com
- 32026 Polls: Alaska Governor - 270toWin270towin.com
- 4Alaska Survey Research: 2026 polls · 99chambers99chambers.app
- 5A Democrat could become governor of Alaska for the first time in over 20 years: NPRnpr.org
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on the winner of the Alaska Governor general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026. A "Yes" contract for a specific candidate resolves to YES if that candidate wins the election, while a "No" contract resolves to YES if that candidate does not win. The maximum payout date for this market is November 3, 2027, and the provided content does not detail any special settlement conditions.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | $0.89 | $0.12 | 89% |
| Bernadette Wilson | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Treg Taylor | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Bill Walker | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Dave Bronson | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Lesil McGuire | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Click Bishop | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Adam Crum | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Edna DeVries | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Lisa Murkowski | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Mary Peltola | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Matt Heilala | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Matthew Claman | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Nancy Dahlstrom | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Shelley Hughes | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Tom Begich | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of October 30, 2026, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is the leading prediction to win the Alaska governor election, with prediction markets implying an 89% chance and significant bullish trading activity [1]. This lead is supported by recent polls, projections of a Democratic lean, and Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski's endorsement of Kreiss-Tomkins over Republican Bernadette Wilson on October 27/28 [2]. However, social media and polling analysis signal caution due to a significant bloc of undecided voters and a right-leaning undecided bloc, suggesting the race may be less settled than market odds imply [3].
5. Trust Index
Largest single print on KXGOVAK-26-JKRE carried 46% of its $9,537 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow)
Integrity risk· Large trades
Market integrity is low (69), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses under 1% of the price to slippage.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What polling data and forecast models underpin Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins's status as the frontrunner in the 2026 gubernatorial race?
| Kalshi Win Probability | 89% for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (as of Oct 30, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Kreiss-Tomkins Polling Average | 52.4% (two-way) [1][2] |
| Nate Silver Model Win Probability | 80%+ for Kreiss-Tomkins [3][4][2] |
Sources (6)
- 1Alaska Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Wilson | Kalshikalshi.com
- 2Alaska Governor Race 2026multistate.us
- 3Poll shows Democrat with lead in Alaska governor's race...alaskapublic.org
- 4Will the winner of Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial ele — Metaculus Scans — Forecasting Agentforecast.agenticlearning.ai
- 5Murkowski endorses Democrat JKT in Alaska governor's racealaskapublic.org
- 6Alaska Governor Election Winnerpolymarket.com
7. How do the paths to victory for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Bernadette Wilson compare under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system?
| Kreiss-Tomkins Primary Vote | 22.5% (August 18 primary win) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Wilson Primary Vote | 10.0% (placed third in primary) [1][2][3][4] |
| Final Round Poll Result | Kreiss-Tomkins 53% vs. Wilson 47% (October 23–25 poll) [5][2] |
Sources (8)
- 1What to expect in Alaska's 2026 ranked choice voting...fairvote.org
- 22026 Alaska gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
- 3Jonathan S. Kreiss-Tomkinsballotpedia.org
- 4Bernadette Wilsonballotpedia.org
- 5Poll shows Democrat with lead in Alaska governor's race...alaskapublic.org
- 6A Democrat could become governor of Alaska for the first...npr.org
- 7Alaskans will decide fate of ranked choice voting system...pbs.org
- 8Position Sought: Governor Name and Political Affiliationelections.alaska.gov
8. What late-stage catalysts could trigger Republican consolidation behind a single candidate before the November 3 election?
| Election End Date | November 3 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Republican Primary Vote Share | Roughly half of the primary vote [4][5][3][6][7] |
| Wilson Polling Status | Leads Bronson and Taylor among Republicans [8][9][10][3] |
Sources (11)
- 1Alaska candidates for governor vary on approaches to...alaskasnewssource.com
- 2Gubernatorial candidates make their pitch at the Alaska...alaskabeacon.com
- 3What to expect in Alaska's 2026 ranked choice voting...fairvote.org
- 4Alaska's governor's race pits a Democrat against 3...thealaskacurrent.com
- 5Amid fractured GOP field, a Democrat could be headed for...alaskabeacon.com
- 6Alaska Governor Odds: Begich Quit, And The Republicans Won't | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
- 7Top candidates in Alaska governor's race say they are...adn.com
- 8Alaska Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Wilson | Kalshikalshi.com
- 9Alaska Governor Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
- 102026 Alaska Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 11Who Is Favored To Win Governor Of Alaska? | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
9. What public data is available on second-choice preferences among Alaskan voters for the 2026 gubernatorial election?
| Latest Poll Final Round (Oct 23-25) | Kreiss-Tomkins 53%, Wilson 47% [1] |
|---|---|
| Data for Progress Final Round (Oct 8-16) | Kreiss-Tomkins 53%, Wilson 47% [1][2][3] |
| New York Times/Siena Final Round (Sep 24-Oct 1) | Kreiss-Tomkins 52%, Wilson 48% [1][2][3] |
Sources (5)
- 12026 Alaska gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
- 2Every Statewide Race in Alaska Is Close, as 7 in 10 Voters...dataforprogress.org
- 3Cross-Tabs: September 2026 Times/Siena Poll of...nytimes.com
- 4Election Informationelections.alaska.gov
- 5Poll shows Democrat with lead in Alaska governor's race...alaskapublic.org
10. What is the methodological basis for outlier forecasts, like that from Polling Forecast, that project a Dave Bronson victory against the polling consensus?
| Fundamentals component weight | 12% [1] |
|---|---|
| Polling component adjusted margin | R+2.2 [1] |
| Top pollsters weight | 86% [1] |
Sources (5)
- 1Alaska governor: 2026 forecast | Polling Forecastpollingforecast.com
- 2Dave Bronson (R): Alaska governor 2026 | Polling Forecastpollingforecast.com
- 3How our polling averages workabcnews.com
- 4Alaska Governor Race 2026multistate.us
- 5Dave Bronson: 2026 Alaska Governor Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (11)
- 1Alaska Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Wilson | Kalshikalshi.com
- 22026 Alaska Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 32026 Alaska Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 4Alaska Governor 2026 Polls & Polling Average | Alaska Politics Trackeralaskapoliticstracker.com
- 5Heeding ranked choice voting, candidates refine their strategies in Alaska governor’s race - The Alaska Journal of Commerceadn.com
- 6How Alaska’s Governor Race Turned in Democrats’ Favoractionnetwork.com
- 7Alaska’s governor’s race pits a Democrat against 3 Republicansthealaskacurrent.com
- 8A Democrat could become governor of Alaska for the first time in over 20 years: NPRnpr.org
- 9Alaska Governor Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
- 10AK Governor 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
- 11Election Calendar - Division of Electionselections.alaska.gov