Hawaii Governor winner?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the Democratic party to win the Hawaii Governor race in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Primary research query failed, preventing data retrieval for analysis.
- Governor Josh Green's re-election prospects are bolstered by bullish catalysts.
- Strong economic performance and effective state budget management aid Green.
- Successful implementation of affordable housing policies benefits his leadership.
- Well-funded campaign, strong organization, and endorsements support Green.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 98.0% | 97.7% | The Democratic party enjoys a significant historical electoral advantage in Hawaii. |
| Republican party | 2.3% | 2.3% | The Republican party faces a significant historical electoral disadvantage in Hawaii. |
Current Context
Hawaii's recent primary election set the stage for November's general election. The primary, held on August 8, 2026, saw incumbent Governor Josh Green secure the Democratic nomination for re-election with 81% of the vote against three challengers [^]. Republican businessman Gary Cordery won his party's nomination for Governor, receiving 66% of the vote [^]. Derek Kawakami and Daniel Anthony earned the Democratic and Republican nominations for Lieutenant Governor, respectively [^]. Preliminary reports indicated low voter turnout, with less than 30% of registered Hawaii voters casting ballots by August 7, 2026, tracking below 2024 and 2022 primary elections [^]. Leading up to the primary, gubernatorial candidates discussed their stances on liquefied natural gas (LNG), housing affordability, and government accountability [^].
The general election outlook strongly favors the Democratic incumbent. Hawaii is widely regarded as a "Solid Democratic" state in gubernatorial elections [^], a sentiment reinforced by prominent political handicappers such as Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, all of whom consistently rate the race as "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" [^]. Prediction markets, including Polymarket and Pollsmax, forecast a very high probability of a Democratic victory, with Pollsmax specifically giving Josh Green a 99.1% chance of winning [^]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with voters actively seeking information on the platforms of the confirmed nominees, Josh Green (D) and Gary Cordery (R) [^]. Discussions continue regarding low voter participation, with political scientists suggesting that competitive local races might boost turnout in specific counties [^]. Information on voting logistics, including voter registration, mail-in ballots, and service centers, is also widely available [^].
Upcoming election deadlines and voter concerns are prominent in discussions. General election ballots are expected to be mailed around October 16, 2026, with the general election day on November 3, 2026 [^]. The paper voter registration deadline is October 26, 2026, and absentee ballot applications are due by October 27, 2026 [^]. Voter service centers will offer same-day registration and in-person early voting from October 20 through November 3, 2026 (excluding Sundays) [^]. Recurring concerns include voter apathy and persistently low turnout [^], as well as public interest in candidate stances on critical policy issues like housing affordability, cost of living, healthcare, education, climate change, and rebuilding trust in the state Legislature [^]. Election integrity is also a focus, with the Hawaii Office of Elections actively addressing misinformation regarding voter fraud and citizenship requirements [^]. Furthermore, debates persist regarding eligibility for Office of Hawaiian Affairs (OHA) trustee races, often resulting in numerous blank votes in these contests [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The price chart for the 2026 Hawaii Democratic gubernatorial win displays a stable and sideways trend, consistently pricing the outcome as highly probable. The contract has traded within a very narrow five-cent range, from a low of $0.93 to a high of $0.98. Currently priced at $0.98, the market reflects an overwhelming consensus for a Democratic victory. The price has slightly appreciated from its starting point of $0.96, but there have been no significant spikes or volatile movements, indicating a lack of new information to challenge the prevailing sentiment. Given the lack of trading, the range boundaries of $0.93 and $0.98 act as de facto support and resistance, but they have not been established by market activity.
Crucially, the market has a total traded volume of zero contracts. This complete absence of participation means the price movement is not a result of trader activity but likely reflects minor adjustments by an automated market maker. Therefore, it is inaccurate to attribute any price change to a specific event. The context of the August 8 primary, where incumbent Democrat Josh Green won his nomination decisively, aligns with and validates the market's high probability assessment. However, this news did not generate trading, which suggests the outcome is perceived as so certain that there is no incentive for traders to take a position at the current prohibitive price. The lack of volume signals unanimous conviction, or a complete lack of interest, in challenging the established odds.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the specified party wins the Hawaii Governor election, and to NO if they do not, with resolution determined solely by the winning party. Trading for this market begins on November 3, 2023, at 8:00 AM EST, and the maximum payout date is November 3, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | $0.98 | $0.03 | 98% |
| Republican party | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding the "Hawaii Governor winner" in the context of the ongoing 2026 election largely center on incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green's strong position for re-election [^]. Green recently secured the Democratic primary nomination with a significant lead, supported by a favorable approval rating and the state's historical Democratic lean [^]. While Green is widely anticipated to win against Republican challenger Gary Cordery, underlying debates include historically low primary voter turnout and the ongoing corruption scandal involving former Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke, which has fueled discussions about government accountability and even prediction market activity [^].
4. Why Did the Research Query Fail to Find Data?
| Research Outcome | Failed (Research findings) |
|---|---|
| Error Code | 404 (Research findings) |
| Error Detail | Not Found (Research findings) |
The research process encountered a specific error, preventing data retrieval. During the execution of the research, the system returned an HTTP status code of '404' with the detail 'Not Found'. This error indicates that the system was unable to locate or retrieve any information pertinent to the specified research question.
Therefore, no specific data or content could be extracted. Consequently, no specific data points, statistics, or textual content could be summarized. The absence of these findings means that the original query regarding Governor Josh Green's net approval rating for Maui wildfire recovery could not be addressed with factual information.
5. What Was the Outcome of the Research Request?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Code | 404 |
| Error Detail | Not Found |
The research process failed, preventing data retrieval for analysis. An error occurred, specifically a 404 'Not Found' status. This indicated that the requested information or resource could not be located or retrieved from the intended source. As a direct result, no data or findings could be extracted for the query.
A 404 error indicates specific information was unavailable or nonexistent. This type of error signifies that the server could not find the requested webpage or data. It does not imply that the server is down, but rather that the specific item being sought is unavailable or does not exist at the designated URL or path. Consequently, due to this failure in accessing the research content, it is not possible to provide specific insights, key data points, or detailed paragraphs as per the request. The absence of content means there are no findings to present from the attempted research.
6. Why Were No Research Findings Available?
| Research Status | Error 404: Not Found |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | No data retrieved |
| Reason for Error | Failed to access research source |
The research query encountered a critical 404 'Not Found' error. This error specifically indicated that the requested information or resource could not be located or accessed at the specified source. As a direct consequence of this technical issue, no specific findings, data points, or detailed summaries could be extracted or generated from the research.
No substantive content was available for summary or analysis. Consequently, there is no research output to provide specific findings, data points, or detailed summaries. The absence of accessible information means no content from the research could be generated for review or analysis regarding the initial query.
Resolving the 404 error is necessary for further investigation. Future attempts to obtain information for this question would require addressing the 'Not Found' status. This might involve checking the accuracy of the specified source, verifying the query parameters used, or ensuring the availability of the original research data.
7. What Information Could Not Be Retrieved Due to Error?
| Research Outcome | Failed (Error code: 404 - Not Found) |
|---|---|
| Data Extraction Status | Not Possible |
| Summary Generation Status | Unable to complete |
Research efforts were halted due to a critical access error. During the data retrieval phase, the research process encountered a critical HTTP 404 'Not Found' status. This technical issue signifies that the requested information or resource could not be located on the server.
No data could be processed, preventing any analysis. As a direct consequence of this error, no relevant data or findings could be retrieved or processed. Therefore, it was impossible to extract any key insights, generate a summary of findings, or provide a comprehensive answer to the initial query regarding deviations of more than 5% from 2022 cycle trends in Hawaii's post-primary voter registration numbers, specifically a concurrent decline in Democratic party affiliation and a rise in Republican/non-partisan affiliation in Honolulu County. The research was unable to proceed due to this fundamental access issue.
8. Was the Requested Research Data Successfully Found?
| Research Outcome | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Code | 404 |
| Error Message | {'detail': 'Not Found'} |
The research query encountered an error, preventing data retrieval. The research process, which sought to identify the final head-to-head matchup result from the Honolulu Star-Advertiser's exclusive Hawaii Poll, encountered a significant technical error. Specifically, the system registered a 404 'Not Found' status. This indicates that the requested information or resource could not be located or accessed by the system.
No poll findings could be extracted due to the error. As a direct consequence of this retrieval failure, no specific findings, data points, or detailed summaries pertaining to the head-to-head matchup between Green and Cordery could be extracted or presented for analysis. The system was entirely unable to retrieve any relevant content for this particular research query, making it impossible to determine if the margin had narrowed to within single digits as typically released one week before the election.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts for the Hawaii Gubernatorial Election
Governor Josh Green's re-election prospects for the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race are bolstered by several bullish catalysts [^] . Continued strong economic performance and effective state budget management could enhance voter confidence in his administration [^]. Successful implementation of key policy initiatives, particularly in affordable housing, would also reflect positively on his leadership [^]. Furthermore, a well-funded campaign with strong organization and endorsements from popular local or national figures, coupled with his decisive primary victory, are expected to solidify his support [^]. Conversely, several bearish catalysts could challenge Governor Green's re-election bid [^]. A significant economic downturn, such as a recession or a collapse in tourism, or a major natural disaster poorly handled by the administration, could erode public trust [^]. The emergence of a strong, well-funded challenger before the June 2, 2026 filing deadline, or a major political scandal involving the governor or his administration, could severely damage his public image [^]. Negative public reaction to key policies or unexpected internal party divisions might also weaken his position [^]. The election timeline presents critical milestones, starting with the candidate filing period in February 2026 and culminating in the candidate filing deadline on June 2, 2026, which finalizes the primary ballot [^]. The Primary Election on August 8, 2026, already saw Governor Green secure the Democratic nomination [^]. The General Election Day is set for November 3, 2026, with the prediction market settlement expected by November 3, 2027 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Governor Josh Green's re-election prospects for the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race are bolstered by several bullish catalysts [^] .
- Trigger: Continued strong economic performance and effective state budget management could enhance voter confidence in his administration [^] .
- Trigger: Successful implementation of key policy initiatives, particularly in affordable housing, would also reflect positively on his leadership [^] .
- Trigger: Furthermore, a well-funded campaign with strong organization and endorsements from popular local or national figures, coupled with his decisive primary victory, are expected to solidify his support [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
