Short Answer

Josh Green is likely to win the Hawaii Governor election in 2026, with the market pricing this outcome at 95.9%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's high, stable pricing reflects the outcome of the August 8 primary election. Incumbent Democrat Josh Green won his party's nomination with 88.51% of the vote, cementing his position as the frontrunner for the general election. The market opened after this event, with contract prices consistently holding above 95%, indicating a strong consensus that the Democratic candidate will win.
The price has remained in a narrow range between 95.6% and 98.0% since trading began. Total volume is extremely low at just 7 contracts. This minimal activity suggests there is little interest in challenging the market's initial assessment. The minor price fluctuations are not attributable to any specific developments and are likely noise in a thinly traded market.
  • Since last update (~28d): Josh Green's market probability fell 2.1pp (market-led), widening our edge by 2.1pp.
  • Our confidence score increased significantly by 4.0pp, now reflecting stronger conviction.
  • Headline market probability decreased by 2.1pp while our model remained unchanged.
  • Gary Cordery's market probability rose 1.7pp, a market-led move that widened his edge.
  • Democratic Party favored for Hawaii governorship via incumbent Josh Green.
  • Incumbent Josh Green holds a $2 million cash on hand advantage.
  • Hawaii has not elected a Republican governor since 2006.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Josh Green 95.9% 97.7% Incumbent Governor Josh Green won his primary, holds a significant fundraising advantage, and benefits from Hawaii's strong Democratic lean.
Gary Cordery 4.0% 2.3% Republican Gary Cordery faces significant structural hurdles in deep-blue Hawaii and a substantial fundraising deficit.

Current Context

Incumbent Josh Green and Gary Cordery secured their party nominations on August 8. The Hawaii gubernatorial primary election took place on August 8, 2026 [1][2][3]. Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green won his party's nomination with 88.51% of the vote [4]. Gary Cordery secured the Republican gubernatorial primary with approximately 75% of the vote [1][2][5]. The general election for Hawaii Governor is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026 [6][7][8][9][10]; the filing deadline for candidates passed on June 2, 2026 [9][10].
Governor Green is the clear favorite for re-election. Governor Josh Green is widely considered the favorite for re-election, given a reportedly favorable political environment for the Democratic Party in Hawaii [1][2]. As of August 31, 2026, Decision Desk HQ forecasts a 99% probability that Joshua Green will win the Hawaii gubernatorial general election on November 3, 2026 [8].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Gov. Josh Green, Derek Kawakami head to the general election | Honolulu Star-Advertiserstaradvertiser.com
  2. 2Hawaii Gov Josh Green wins Democratic primary against challengers | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  3. 3Gov. Green and Kawakami cruise to victory in the Democratic primary | Honolulu Star-Advertiserstaradvertiser.com
  4. 42026 Hawaii Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5Hawaii Governor Primary Election 2026 Live Results - NBC Newsnbcnews.com
  6. 6Office of Elections | 2026 Proclamationelections.hawaii.gov
  7. 7Office of Elections | Governor and Lieutenant Governorelections.hawaii.gov
  8. 82026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9Hawaii state executive official elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  10. 10Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 8 Nonpartisan primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For each specific candidate, a YES resolution occurs if that candidate wins the Hawaii Governor election, and a NO resolution occurs if the candidate does not win. The market begins trading on November 3, 8:00 AM EST, with the maximum payout scheduled for November 3, 2027. Resolution is formally determined based on the winning party of the election.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Josh Green $0.98 $0.04 96%
Gary Cordery $0.04 $0.98 4%

Market Discussion

Joshua Green, the incumbent Governor of Hawaii since December 5, 2022 [1][2][3][4][5], won the Democratic nomination in the August 8, 2026 primary election, while Gary Cordery won the Republican primary [6][7][8][9]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [10], and prediction markets overwhelmingly favor the Democratic party to win, with odds frequently cited at 94% to 98% probability [11][12][13][14][15]. Decision Desk HQ forecasts the race as 'Safe Democratic' with Joshua Green having a 99% win probability [10][16][17].

Sources (17)
  1. 1Office of Elections | Elected Officialselections.hawaii.gov
  2. 2Josh Green (politician) - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3List of current governors in the United States - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Joshua Green - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Governor of Hawaii - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Ken Martin on Gab: 'JUST IN: Josh Green has clinched the Democratic no…'gab.com
  7. 7The Pac-Man Election - by AMRX Mark II - NO COPEnocope.substack.com
  8. 82026 Hawaii Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 92026 Hawaii Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  10. 102026 Hawaii Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  11. 11Hawaii Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  12. 12Hawaii Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  13. 13Hawaii Governor winner Elections Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  14. 14Hawaii Governor Winner | Gemini Predictionsgemini.com
  15. 152026 Hawaii Governor Markets | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  16. 162026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  17. 172026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 74 Good

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score82Good
Trade quality20% of score41High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score74Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
76Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Josh Green” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
38Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first

Josh Green38
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Gary Cordery42
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 79% vs realized 7%
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

Josh Green—
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Gary Cordery—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Josh Green100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Gary Cordery100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
41High Risk

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 38 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.6c slippage (<1% of a 97.4c contract)

$1,000 order: 1.8c slippage (~2% of a 97.4c contract)

$10,000 order: 2.4c slippage (~2% of a 97.4c contract)

Josh Green38Market scoreLiquidity38Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 38
Liquidity
38 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Gary Cordery42Market scoreLiquidity42Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 42
Liquidity
42 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 79% vs realized 7%
Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 26, 2026

5. What historical voting patterns and demographic data in Hawaii support the consensus forecast of a Josh Green victory in November 2026?

Last Republican gubernatorial win in Hawaii2006 [1][2]
Average Democratic winning percentage (gubernatorial)59.1% (across five most recent gubernatorial elections leading up to 2022) [3]
Josh Green 2026 primary vote share88.51% [4]
Hawaii's strong Democratic lean underpins the forecast for Green's victory. The consensus forecast robustly supports Josh Green's anticipated victory in November 2026, primarily due to Hawaii's consistent historical voting patterns favoring Democrats [5][6][7]. Hawaii has consistently elected Democratic governors in every election since 2010 and has supported the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1988 [1][2][8][9]. The average winning percentage for Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Hawaii's five most recent elections leading up to 2022 was 59.1% [3]. This enduring Democratic partisan baseline is a fundamental factor in the forecast for Green's anticipated win [5][6][7].
Demographics and incumbency further bolster Governor Green's electoral prospects. Hawaii's electorate features large minority populations and urban concentrations that reliably align with Democratic voting patterns, making it one of the most consistently Democratic states in the U.S. [2][10]. Incumbent Governor Josh Green benefits from high name recognition and general approval [11][1]. He secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8, 2026, primary elections with 88.51% of the vote [4]. In contrast, Republican challenger Gary Cordery, who secured his party's nomination with 75.85% of the vote in the same primary [12], faces substantial structural disadvantages. These include a lack of organizational and fundraising strength in a state where Republicans have not been competitive statewide for decades [11][1].
Sources (12)
  1. 12026 Hawaii gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Politics of Hawaii - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 8 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 42026 Hawaii Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 72026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 8Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 8 Republican primary)ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Hawaii Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin.com270towin.com
  10. 10Ranking the States Demographically, from Most Republican...centerforpolitics.org
  11. 11https://polymarket.com/event/hawaii-governor-winner-2026?r=predictionhunteventspolymarket.com
  12. 122026 Hawaii Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

6. How do the stated policy positions of Josh Green and Gary Cordery on Hawaii's housing crisis and economic development compare?

Green's Housing Goal50,000 to 64,000 affordable units over next decade [1][2][3][4]
Cordery's Housing Goal15,000 homes (market-driven) [5][6]
Cordery's Budget CritiqueCritiques $20.5 billion state budget [7][8][6]
Green advocates state-led housing; Cordery prefers market-driven solutions. Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green proposes a large-scale, state-led housing strategy, aiming to deliver approximately 50,000 to 64,000 affordable units over the next decade [1][2][3][4]. His approach includes issuing emergency proclamations, utilizing state-owned land, collaborating with private developers, and streamlining permitting processes [1][2][3][4][9][10][11]. In contrast, Republican challenger Gary Cordery advocates a market-driven housing strategy, targeting 15,000 new homes by streamlining permits and reducing regulations, while explicitly opposing government-subsidized housing initiatives [5][6].
Economic development plans diverge on government intervention and taxation. Governor Green's economic development initiatives include expanding film tax credits, investing in energy resilience projects, and promoting the "Housing is Healthcare" model to address both homelessness and the broader cost of living [1][2][3][12]. Gary Cordery's economic platform, however, focuses on reducing the cost of living through measures such as eliminating the state's General Excise Tax (GET) on food and medicine, freezing property taxes for retirees, and conducting an audit of the state's $20.5 billion budget [7][8][6]. Cordery also supports reintroducing business-oriented ferries but opposes rezoning agricultural land for solar energy projects [13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Governor Green Unveils 2026 Policy Report Titled “A Vision For...governor.hawaii.gov
  2. 2Read and listen to Gov. Green's 2026 State of the State addresshawaiipublicradio.org
  3. 3Hawaii Governor Wants to Build 64,000 Affordable Homes. Can He...governing.com
  4. 4Office of the Governor's Housing Team – State of Hawaiihale.hawaii.gov
  5. 5Candidate Q&A: Governor — Gary Cordery - Honolulu Civil Beatcivilbeat.org
  6. 6Republicans nominate candidate to take on Democratic... - Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  7. 7Families in Hawai'i are being stretched thin by rising costs - Instagraminstagram.com
  8. 8Aloha friends! Hawai'i's government grows larger and more...facebook.com
  9. 9Joshua Green - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  10. 10Joshua Green defeats Vicky Cayetano, Kaiali'i Kahele, and four other candidates in Hawaii's Democratic gubernatorial primary - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  11. 11Seven candidates running in Democratic primary for governor of Hawaii - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  12. 12Charting a “Housing is Healthcare” Model for Preventing and...journals.law.harvard.edu
  13. 13Gary Cordery - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

7. What potential events or campaign developments between August and November 2026 could significantly alter Josh Green's high probability of winning?

Probability of Green winning (Prediction Markets)92%-99% [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Probability of Green winning (Decision Desk HQ)99% (as of September 2026) [7][8]
Projected Vote MarginD+32 ('Safe Democratic') [7][8]
Incumbent Josh Green is overwhelmingly favored to win Hawaii's 2026 gubernatorial election. Prediction markets currently assign Green a 92% to 99% probability of victory [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Decision Desk HQ further projects a 99% probability against Republican candidate Gary Cordery as of September 2026 [7][8]. Green secured the Democratic nomination on August 8, 2026, receiving 88.51% of the vote [9], while Cordery won the Republican nomination with 75.85% [10].
Hawaii's strong Democratic lean underpins Green's high probability of victory. This is largely due to the state's enduring partisan advantage, as Hawaii has not elected a Republican governor since 2006 [11][4]. The 2026 gubernatorial race is characterized as 'Safe Democratic,' with structural fundamentals like incumbency and the state's partisan baseline suggesting a projected vote margin of D+32 [7][8].
Despite high probabilities, unforeseen events could theoretically alter the election outcome. While Green's victory is highly probable, potential low-probability developments between August and November 2026 could include a major scandal, an unforeseen health event, or an extraordinary political shift [1].
Sources (11)
  1. 1https://polymarket.com/event/hawaii-governor-winner-2026?r=predictionhunteventspolymarket.com
  2. 22026 Hawaii Elections, Odds & Candidates | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  3. 3Hawaii Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  4. 42026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
  5. 5Hawaii Governor Winner | Gemini Predictionsgemini.com
  6. 6PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
  7. 72026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 92026 Hawaii Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  10. 102026 Hawaii Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  11. 112026 Hawaii gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org

8. What public polling data has been released for the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial general election, and what are the key trends in head-to-head matchups?

Public Polling DataNo data released as of September 9, 2026 [1][2]
Prediction Market Win Probability (Josh Green)92% to 98% (as of September 2026) [3][4][5][6][7]
Decision Desk HQ Win Probability (Josh Green)>99% [2][8]
Public polling data for the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial general election is currently unavailable. As of September 9, 2026, public polling data for the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial general election has not yet been released [1][2]. Despite the absence of polls, election analysts consider the race to be solidly Democratic [1][9]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [10][11].
Incumbent Governor Josh Green is heavily favored in the 2026 election. The 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial general election features incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green and Republican businessman Gary Cordery, both of whom won their respective primaries on August 8, 2026 [9]. Prediction markets, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood, heavily favor the Democratic nominee, Josh Green, with implied win probabilities ranging from approximately 92% to 98% as of September 2026 [3][4][5][6][7]. Furthermore, forecast models from Decision Desk HQ assign incumbent Governor Joshua Green a greater than 99% win probability [2][8].
Sources (11)
  1. 12026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
  2. 22026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 3https://polymarket.com/event/hawaii-governor-winner-2026?r=predictionhunteventspolymarket.com
  4. 4Hawaii Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5Hawaii Governor winner Elections Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  6. 6Hawaii Governor Winner | Gemini Predictionsgemini.com
  7. 7PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
  8. 82026 Hawaii Governor Markets | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 92026 Hawaii gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  10. 10Hawaii state executive official elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  11. 11Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 8 Nonpartisan primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

9. What do fundraising totals and key endorsements for Republican candidate Gary Cordery indicate about his campaign's viability ahead of the November 2026 general election?

Cordery Campaign Fundraising$300,000 raised (July 2026) [1]
Cordery Primary Vote Share75.85% [2][3]
Democratic Victory Odds92-98% (September 2026) [4][5][6]
Cordery's campaign faces significant financial hurdles ahead of the 2026 general election. As of July 2026, Republican gubernatorial candidate Gary Cordery's campaign had raised just over $300,000, all of which had been spent, with a reported $14,000 in debt [1]. This financial position sharply contrasts with incumbent Governor Josh Green, who had accumulated $3.5 million since his 2022 victory and maintained $2 million in cash on hand by July 2026. Political analysts indicate that Cordery's depleted financial resources severely hinder his campaign's ability to compete effectively in the upcoming election [1].
Despite nomination, Cordery lacks major endorsements and faces long odds. Cordery successfully secured the Republican nomination for Governor of Hawaii on August 8, 2026, earning 75.85% of the primary vote [2][3]. Although he is slated to appear on the November 3, 2026, general election ballot [7][8][9], available public information regarding formal endorsements for his general election campaign is limited [10][11]. Furthermore, prediction markets consistently show a very low probability of a Republican victory as of September 2026, with Democratic victory odds ranging between 92% and 98% [7][8][9][4][5][6].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Green overwhelms, Bissen lags in campaign spending reportshawaiinewsnow.com
  2. 22026 Hawaii Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 Hawaii Governor Live Election Results | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4https://polymarket.com/event/hawaii-governor-winner-2026?r=predictionhunteventspolymarket.com
  5. 5Hawaii Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  6. 6PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
  7. 7Gary Cordery - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 82026 Hawaii Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9Hawaii gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  10. 10State executive election endorsements, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11Endorsers in Hawaii - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green won the primary election on August 8, 2026, and is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election [1][2]. Republican Gary Cordery won his party's primary on August 8, 2026, and is the Republican nominee [3][2]. Prediction markets and election forecasts currently consider Governor Green an overwhelming favorite, with approximately 94-99% win probability against Cordery [4][5][6]. Decision Desk HQ models identify Governor Green as having a >99% probability of winning the 2026 general election, which is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [4][7][8]. This forecast is based on structural fundamentals, including incumbent advantage and partisan baseline, with a projected margin of victory of approximately D+32 [4][8].
Key bullish catalysts for Governor Green include his significant campaign fundraising advantage, reporting $3.5M as of June 30, 2026, compared to $313k for Cordery [1][9]. Strong polling, high approval ratings, and Hawaii's history as a reliably Democratic state, with no GOP governor since 2010, further support his position [1][9]. Governor Green secured his party's nomination in the August 8, 2026, Democratic primary with approximately 88.51% of the vote [10][11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (11)
  1. 1Hawaii Gov Josh Green wins Democratic primary against challengers | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  2. 2Gov. Josh Green, Derek Kawakami head to the general election | Honolulu Star-Advertiserstaradvertiser.com
  3. 32026 Hawaii gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  4. 42026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
  6. 6Hawaii Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  7. 72026 Hawaii Governor Markets | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 Hawaii Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9Why Hawaiʻi Gov. Josh Green Is Getting A Free Ride In This Year's Primary - Honolulu Civil Beatcivilbeat.org
  10. 102026 Hawaii Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  11. 11Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 8 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org