Republican party
Market Model 99.0% 47.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 99.0% 52.2%
Topic tracker · Elections
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (2 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new State legislature winners markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated August 21, 2026