Global Elections Markets

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.

Active Markets (24)

Next French Presidential Election Polymarket

Mathilde Panot

Market Model 0.1% 0.5%

François Bayrou

Market Model 0.1% 0.5%

$123.9M Refresh

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket

Tarcisio de Freitas

Market Model 0.1% 0.1%

Renan Santos

Market Model 1.7% 2.0%

$140.4M Refresh

Presidential Election Winner 2028 Polymarket

LeBron James

Market Model 0.1% 0.4%

Tim Walz

Market Model 0.1% 40.0%

$696.1M Refresh

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Polymarket

Byron Donalds

Market Model 0.4% 0.5%

Mike Pence

Market Model 0.2% 50.0%

$693.3M Refresh

France United Left Primary Winner Polymarket

Canceled

Market Model 93.1% 97.0%

Marine Tondelier

Market Model 0.2% 0.2%

$203.1K Refresh

Next Premier of Quebec Polymarket

Bernard Drainville

Market Model 0.1% 0.1%

Sol Zanetti

Market Model 0.1% 0.1%

$246.7K Refresh

Israeli Legislative Election Winner Polymarket

Likud

Market Model 50.0% 47.1%

Yashar

Market Model 41.0% 49.0%

$233.2K Refresh

São Paulo Governor Election Winner Polymarket

Tarcísio de Freitas

Market Model 96.8% 97.5%

Kim Kataguiri

Market Model 0.1% 0.0%

$284.4K Refresh

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? Polymarket

Marine Le Pen

Market Model 86.0% 77.7%

Jordan Bardella

Market Model 8.9% 3.5%

$289.8K Refresh

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won Polymarket

Market Model 77.0% 80.7%

MDB

Market Model 16.3% 16.9%

$293.7K Refresh

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Polymarket

Renan Santos Victory

Market Model 0.9% 0.9%

Lula da Silva 10-15%

Market Model 26.1% 15.2%

$323.4K Refresh

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Polymarket

Fred Pacheco

Market Model 0.1% 0.1%

Eduardo Paes

Market Model 96.7% 91.8%

$324.0K Refresh

Bulgaria Presidential Election Polymarket

Iliana Iotova

Market Model 74.0% 77.3%

Rosen Zhelyazkov

Market Model 0.3% 0.4%

$332.9K Refresh

Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner Polymarket

Cleitinho Azevedo

Market Model 69.8% 73.2%

Alexandre Kalil

Market Model 9.0% 8.5%

$355.4K Refresh

Argentina Presidential Election Winner Polymarket

Javier Milei

Market Model 52.0% 52.5%

Axel Kicillof

Market Model 41.0% 44.0%

$527.2K Refresh

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Market Model 96.1% 95.6%

Tarcisio de Frietas

Market Model 0.5% 0.2%

$480.1K Refresh

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Polymarket

Renan Santos

Market Model 52.0% 50.4%

Ratinho Júnior

Market Model 0.1% 0.1%

$549.3K Refresh

Quebec General Election Winner Polymarket

PCQ

Market Model 0.1% 0.5%

PVQ

Market Model 0.1% 0.5%

$736.9K Refresh

French election called by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 13.0% 7.5%

$1.1M Refresh

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket

Republican

Market Model 41.0% 35.7%

Democratic

Market Model 60.0% 64.2%

$2.0M Refresh

Next Prime Minister of Romania? Polymarket

Sorin Grindeanu

Market Model 23.0% 20.1%

Eugen Tomac

Market Model 1.8% 0.9%

$3.3M Refresh

Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket

Democratic Party

Market Model 46.0% 41.6%

Republican Party

Market Model 55.0% 58.4%

$3.8M Refresh

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Polymarket

Renan Santos

Market Model 6.0% 6.8%

Fernando Haddad

Market Model 0.2% 0.2%

$4.4M Refresh

Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket

Democratic Party

Market Model 87.0% 88.4%

Republican Party

Market Model 14.0% 11.6%

$9.1M Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Next French Presidential Election Top outcome: Mathilde Panot	0.1%	0.5%	High	77	Refresh
Brazil Presidential Election Top outcome: Tarcisio de Freitas	0.1%	0.1%	High	81	Refresh
Presidential Election Winner 2028 Top outcome: LeBron James	0.1%	0.4%	Med	76	Refresh
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Top outcome: Byron Donalds	0.4%	0.5%	Med	40	Refresh
France United Left Primary Winner Top outcome: Canceled	93.1%	97.0%	High	40	Refresh
Next Premier of Quebec Top outcome: Bernard Drainville	0.1%	0.1%	High	73	Refresh
Israeli Legislative Election Winner Top outcome: Likud	50.0%	47.1%	High	62	Refresh
São Paulo Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Tarcísio de Freitas	96.8%	97.5%	High	80	Refresh
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? Top outcome: Marine Le Pen	86.0%	77.7%	Med	78	Refresh
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won Top outcome: PL	77.0%	80.7%	High	77	Refresh
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Top outcome: Renan Santos Victory	0.9%	0.9%	High	77	Refresh
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Fred Pacheco	0.1%	0.1%	High	80	Refresh
Bulgaria Presidential Election Top outcome: Iliana Iotova	74.0%	77.3%	High	78	Refresh
Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Cleitinho Azevedo	69.8%	73.2%	High	72	Refresh
Argentina Presidential Election Winner Top outcome: Javier Milei	52.0%	52.5%	High	73	Refresh
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Top outcome: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva	96.1%	95.6%	Med	74	Refresh
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Top outcome: Renan Santos	52.0%	50.4%	Med	80	Refresh
Quebec General Election Winner Top outcome: PCQ	0.1%	0.5%	High	79	Refresh
French election called by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026	13.0%	7.5%	High	44	Refresh
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? Top outcome: Republican	41.0%	35.7%	High	75	Refresh
Next Prime Minister of Romania? Top outcome: Sorin Grindeanu	23.0%	20.1%	High	69	Refresh
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party	46.0%	41.6%	High	79	Refresh
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Top outcome: Renan Santos	6.0%	6.8%	High	81	Refresh
Which party will win the House in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party	87.0%	88.4%	High	78	Refresh

Expired Markets (13)

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$24.3M

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$285.8M

Zambia Presidential Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$230.4K

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$293.5K

Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$318.9K

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$456.1K

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$663.4K

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$872.5K

Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$1.3M

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$2.9M

Berlin State Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$3.2M

Next Prime Minister of Sweden Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$3.4M

Clacton by-election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$3.8M

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?	—	—	High	—
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	—	—	High	—
Zambia Presidential Election Winner	—	—	High	—
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	—	—	Med	—
Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place	—	—	High	71
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner	—	—	High	80
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner	—	—	High	—
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner	—	—	Med	—
Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner	—	—	High	78
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner	—	—	High	—
Berlin State Election Winner	—	—	High	74
Next Prime Minister of Sweden	—	—	High	69
Clacton by-election Winner	—	—	High	—

Global Elections Markets

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