United Russia (ER)
Market Model 70.0% 60.6%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
Market Model 4.9% 6.8%
Global Elections Markets
Active Markets (31)
Next French Presidential Election Polymarket
Mathilde Panot
Market Model 0.1% 0.5%
François Bayrou
Market Model 0.1% 0.5%
Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket
Tarcisio de Freitas
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Renan Santos
Market Model 1.7% 2.0%
Presidential Election Winner 2028 Polymarket
LeBron James
Market Model 0.1% 0.4%
Tim Walz
Market Model 0.1% 40.0%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Polymarket
Byron Donalds
Market Model 0.4% 0.5%
Mike Pence
Market Model 0.2% 50.0%
France United Left Primary Winner Polymarket
Canceled
Market Model 93.1% 97.0%
Marine Tondelier
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Next Premier of Quebec Polymarket
Bernard Drainville
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Sol Zanetti
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Israeli Legislative Election Winner Polymarket
Likud
Market Model 50.0% 47.1%
Yashar
Market Model 41.0% 49.0%
São Paulo Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Tarcísio de Freitas
Market Model 96.8% 97.5%
Kim Kataguiri
Market Model 0.1% 0.0%
Marine Le Pen
Market Model 86.0% 77.7%
Jordan Bardella
Market Model 8.9% 3.5%
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won Polymarket
PL
Market Model 77.0% 80.7%
MDB
Market Model 16.3% 16.9%
Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place Polymarket
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
Market Model 81.0% 79.0%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
Market Model 10.9% 9.7%
Renan Santos Victory
Market Model 0.9% 0.9%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
Market Model 26.1% 15.2%
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Fred Pacheco
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Eduardo Paes
Market Model 96.7% 91.8%
Bulgaria Presidential Election Polymarket
Iliana Iotova
Market Model 74.0% 77.3%
Rosen Zhelyazkov
Market Model 0.3% 0.4%
Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Cleitinho Azevedo
Market Model 69.8% 73.2%
Alexandre Kalil
Market Model 9.0% 8.5%
SPD
Market Model 16.0% 14.8%
AfD
Market Model 85.0% 84.6%
Argentina Presidential Election Winner Polymarket
Javier Milei
Market Model 52.0% 52.5%
Axel Kicillof
Market Model 41.0% 44.0%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Market Model 96.1% 95.6%
Tarcisio de Frietas
Market Model 0.5% 0.2%
Renan Santos
Market Model 52.0% 50.4%
Ratinho Júnior
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Quebec General Election Winner Polymarket
PCQ
Market Model 0.1% 0.5%
PVQ
Market Model 0.1% 0.5%
Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket
Sweden Democrats (SD)
Market Model 0.8% 0.8%
Moderate Party (M)
Market Model 0.5% 0.5%
French election called by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 7.5%
Republican
Market Model 41.0% 35.7%
Democratic
Market Model 60.0% 64.2%
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket
United Russia (ER)
Market Model 97.9% 96.7%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
Market Model 0.1% 0.4%
Berlin State Election Winner Polymarket
AfD
Market Model 17.1% 20.0%
SPD
Market Model 4.3% 7.5%
Next Prime Minister of Romania? Polymarket
Sorin Grindeanu
Market Model 23.0% 20.1%
Eugen Tomac
Market Model 1.8% 0.9%
Next Prime Minister of Sweden Polymarket
Jimmie Åkesson
Market Model 1.7% 2.0%
Nooshi Dadgostar
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 46.0% 41.6%
Republican Party
Market Model 55.0% 58.4%
Renan Santos
Market Model 6.0% 6.8%
Fernando Haddad
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 87.0% 88.4%
Republican Party
Market Model 14.0% 11.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Top outcome: United Russia (ER) | 70.0% | 60.6% | High | $24,256,661.21 | Refresh |
| Next French Presidential Election Top outcome: Mathilde Panot | 0.1% | 0.5% | High | $123,852,609.64 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election Top outcome: Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | $140,378,330.29 | Refresh |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 Top outcome: LeBron James | 0.1% | 0.4% | Med | $696,135,851.19 | Refresh |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Top outcome: Byron Donalds | 0.4% | 0.5% | Med | $693,297,468.38 | Refresh |
| France United Left Primary Winner Top outcome: Canceled | 93.1% | 97.0% | High | $203,052.17 | Refresh |
| Next Premier of Quebec Top outcome: Bernard Drainville | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | $246,698.33 | Refresh |
| Israeli Legislative Election Winner Top outcome: Likud | 50.0% | 47.1% | High | $233,182.46 | Refresh |
| São Paulo Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Tarcísio de Freitas | 96.8% | 97.5% | High | $284,392.56 | Refresh |
| 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? Top outcome: Marine Le Pen | 86.0% | 77.7% | Med | $289,784.2 | Refresh |
| Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won Top outcome: PL | 77.0% | 80.7% | High | $293,650.06 | Refresh |
| Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place Top outcome: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 81.0% | 79.0% | High | $318,944.38 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Top outcome: Renan Santos Victory | 0.9% | 0.9% | High | $323,380.99 | Refresh |
| Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Fred Pacheco | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | $323,998.28 | Refresh |
| Bulgaria Presidential Election Top outcome: Iliana Iotova | 74.0% | 77.3% | High | $332,872.45 | Refresh |
| Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Cleitinho Azevedo | 69.8% | 73.2% | High | $355,399.45 | Refresh |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner Top outcome: SPD | 16.0% | 14.8% | High | $456,070.41 | Refresh |
| Argentina Presidential Election Winner Top outcome: Javier Milei | 52.0% | 52.5% | High | $527,243.62 | Refresh |
| Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Top outcome: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 96.1% | 95.6% | Med | $480,108.39 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Top outcome: Renan Santos | 52.0% | 50.4% | Med | $549,272.03 | Refresh |
| Quebec General Election Winner Top outcome: PCQ | 0.1% | 0.5% | High | $736,939.3 | Refresh |
| Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner Top outcome: Sweden Democrats (SD) | 0.8% | 0.8% | High | $1,280,539.09 | Refresh |
| French election called by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 13.0% | 7.5% | High | $1,090,565.88 | Refresh |
| Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? Top outcome: Republican | 41.0% | 35.7% | High | $1,987,446.58 | Refresh |
| Russia Parliamentary Election Winner Top outcome: United Russia (ER) | 97.9% | 96.7% | High | $2,912,290.84 | Refresh |
| Berlin State Election Winner Top outcome: AfD | 17.1% | 20.0% | High | $3,166,713.69 | Refresh |
| Next Prime Minister of Romania? Top outcome: Sorin Grindeanu | 23.0% | 20.1% | High | $3,276,891.2 | Refresh |
| Next Prime Minister of Sweden Top outcome: Jimmie Åkesson | 1.7% | 2.0% | High | $3,410,863.95 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 46.0% | 41.6% | High | $3,754,539.68 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Top outcome: Renan Santos | 6.0% | 6.8% | High | $4,427,416.33 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 87.0% | 88.4% | High | $9,060,714.17 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (6)
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Zambia Presidential Election Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Clacton by-election Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $285,812,184.18 | ||
| — | — | High | $230,447.46 | ||
| — | — | Med | $293,543.5 | ||
| — | — | High | $663,378.31 | ||
| — | — | Med | $872,456.37 | ||
| — | — | High | $3,817,175.21 |
