Next French Presidential Election
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~27d): Marine Le Pen's model dropped 23.2pp, flipping her edge due to eligibility; confidence also down 1.0pp.
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon's model increased 5.7pp (model_led), flipping his edge.
- Édouard Philippe's model declined 5.6pp (model_led); Jordan Bardella gained 2.5pp (edge flipped, model_led).
- Marine Le Pen leads first-round polls but faces an uncertain eligibility appeal decision.
- Édouard Philippe is the leading centrist challenger, but late 2026 polling shows him trailing Le Pen.
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon seeks left-wing unification, yet polling indicates Le Pen would defeat him.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mathilde Panot | 0.1% | 0.5% | No specific evidence or polling data indicates she is a significant contender for the presidency. |
| François Bayrou | 0.1% | 0.5% | No specific evidence or polling data indicates he is a significant contender for the presidency. |
| Ségolène Royal | 0.1% | 0.5% | No specific evidence or polling data indicates she is a significant contender for the presidency. |
| Xavier Bertrand | 0.2% | 0.5% | No specific evidence or polling data indicates he is a significant contender for the presidency. |
| François Asselineau | 0.1% | 0.3% | No specific evidence or polling data indicates he is a significant contender for the presidency. |
Current Context
Sources (13)
- 1Election 2027 -The dates of the 2027 presidential election are announced | Service Publicservice-public.gouv.fr
- 2France sets presidential election date as Macron finishes...france24.com
- 3France confirms dates for 2027 presidential electionrfi.fr
- 4Presidential election in France 2027 - Europe Electseuropeelects.eu
- 5French presidential candidates clash at first debate before...france24.com
- 6Les Français et l'élection présidentielle 2027elabe.fr
- 7Présidentielle 2027: Jean-Luc Mélenchon recule, Raphaël Glucksmann progresse, selon un sondagelefigaro.fr
- 8Daybreak Weekend: Jackson Hole, France Conference, Tokyo CPI | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
- 9SONDAGE BFMTV. Présidentielle 2027: Marine Le Pen gagnante dans tous les cas de figure, Édouard Philippe bien placé pour se qualifier au second tourbfmtv.com
- 10Latest polls and key dates - France's 2027 presidential election guidethelocal.fr
- 11French far-right leader Marine Le Pen barred from seeking office for 5 years, a political earthquake | The Associated Pressap.org
- 12Le Pen's future as French presidential contender... - Newsroomnewsroom.ap.org
- 13Exclusive data analysis and mapping reveal the link between rising poverty and support for France's far right | The Associated Pressap.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content from Polymarket, there are no explicit contract rules, resolution conditions, or key dates/deadlines available for this market. The page displays the "Next French Presidential Election" market with various candidates and their current market probabilities, but it does not detail how a "YES" or "NO" resolution is triggered for any specific candidate, nor does it list special settlement conditions. The date "Apr 29, 2027" is mentioned, which is likely the election date.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | $0.33 | $0.67 | 33% |
| Édouard Philippe | $0.26 | $0.75 | 25% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Gabriel Attal | $0.04 | $0.96 | 4% |
| David Lisnard | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| François Hollande | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Jordan Bardella | $0.03 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | $0.02 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Bruno Retailleau | $0.02 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Dominique de Villepin | $0.02 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Sarah Knafo | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Éric Zemmour | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Sébastien Lecornu | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Fabien Roussel | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Jean Castex | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Juan Branco | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Xavier Bertrand | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Carole Delga | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Clémence Guetté | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Clémentine Autain | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Élisabeth Borne | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| François Asselineau | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| François Baroin | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| François Bayrou | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| François Ruffin | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Gérald Darmanin | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Karim Bouamrane | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Laurent Wauquiez | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Lucie Castets | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Manuel Bompard | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Marine Tondelier | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Marion Maréchal | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Mathilde Panot | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Michel Barnier | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Olivier Faure | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Ségolène Royal | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Valérie Pécresse | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Yannick Jadot | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Other | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AA | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AB | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AC | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AD | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AE | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AF | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AG | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AH | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AI | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AJ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AK | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AL | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AM | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AN | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AO | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AP | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AQ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AR | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AS | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AT | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AU | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AV | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AW | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AX | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AY | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AZ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BA | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BB | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BC | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BD | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BE | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BF | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BG | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BH | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BI | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BJ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BK | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BL | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BM | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BN | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BO | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BP | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BQ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BR | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BS | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BT | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BU | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BV | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BW | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BX | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BY | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BZ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CA | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CB | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CC | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CD | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CE | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CF | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CG | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CH | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CI | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CJ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CK | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CL | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CM | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CN | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CO | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CP | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CQ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person J | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person K | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person L | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person M | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person N | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person O | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person P | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person Q | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person R | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person S | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person T | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person U | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person V | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person W | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person X | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person Y | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person Z | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The next French presidential election is scheduled for April 18, 2027 (first round) and May 2, 2027 (second round), with incumbent President Emmanuel Macron ineligible to run for re-election [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Major political figures frequently mentioned as potential candidates include Marine Le Pen, Édouard Philippe, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Gabriel Attal [5][7][6][8]. As of April 2025, Marine Le Pen has been barred from seeking public office for five years, a ruling she is appealing [9]. Prediction markets generally show a competitive race, with Marine Le Pen often leading, followed by Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, influenced by issues such as high public debt, budget constraints, and immigration [10][11][8][12][4][5][6][13].
Sources (13)
- 1Election 2027 -The dates of the 2027 presidential election are announced | Service Publicservice-public.gouv.fr
- 2France sets presidential election datesreuters.com
- 3France confirms dates for 2027 presidential election - RFIrfi.fr
- 4Bardella, Faure, Lecornu, Hollande, Philippe: Political season begins in France | Euronewseuronews.com
- 5France’s imperiled moderates look weaker than ever ahead of first presidential debate – POLITICOpolitico.eu
- 6Record debt and election politics raise stakes for French budget | The Starthestar.com.my
- 7French election 2027: Poll puts Mélenchon in contention for run-off | Euronewseuronews.com
- 8France Presidential Election 2027 Odds | Polymarket & Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
- 9French far-right leader Marine Le Pen barred from seeking office for 5 years, a political earthquake | The Associated Pressap.org
- 10Next French Presidential Election Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 11Polymarket Deep Dive: Why the Next French Presidential Election Market Is More Fragile Than It Looksainvest.com
- 12Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? - 34% Chancepredictionhunt.com
- 13Record debt and election politics raise stakes for French budgettimeslive.co.za
4. Trust Index
Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.
Integrity risk· Outcome control
Resolution quality is low (60), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 1% of the price to slippage.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
5. Which potential outcomes of the ongoing left-wing primary process would most significantly impact the first-round viability of centrist candidates like Édouard Philippe?
| Main impact on centrists | Unification of the left around a single candidate [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Key challenge for Philippe | Qualifying for the second-round runoff [3][4][5][2] |
| Threat to centrist vote | Internal division within centrist bloc [6][1][2] |
Sources (6)
- 1Radical left Mélenchon courts Greens as presidential bid gains steam – POLITICOpolitico.eu
- 2In French presidential campaign, centrists struggle to...courthousenews.com
- 3Edouard Philippe tilts right to combat far right in French presidential race – POLITICOpolitico.eu
- 4Race for French presidency sees ex-PM Philippe as early favourite to beat populistsbbc.com
- 5Former French PM best placed to beat far right in 2027 presidential race, poll shows – POLITICOpolitico.eu
- 6Feuding French Socialists leave presidential prospects in disarray – POLITICOpolitico.eu
6. What do head-to-head polls from late 2026 indicate about Marine Le Pen's second-round electability against her top challengers, Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal?
| Marine Le Pen vs. Édouard Philippe (2027 second round) | Marine Le Pen defeats Édouard Philippe with 52% to 48% (Ifop-Fiducial, late-August 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen vs. Gabriel Attal (2027 second round) | Marine Le Pen defeats Gabriel Attal with 56% to 44% (Ifop-Fiducial, late-August 2026) [1][2][3] |
| Marine Le Pen first round lead | 33-38% (Late August 2026 polls) [4][1][5][3] |
Sources (6)
- 1Marine Le Pen Maintains Strong Advantage in French Presidential Election - Total Newstotalnews.com
- 2Polling figures for candidates in the 2027 French presidential election | thepublicthepublic.info
- 3Poll Shows Marine Le Pen Leading Every Modeled 2027 French Presidential Runoff | Ukraine news - #Mezhamezha.net
- 4French poll shows Le Pen's biggest challenger may be hard left's Melenchonfrance24.com
- 5Poll for the Presidential Election 2027: Marine Le Pen Leads in All the Hypothesesground.news
- 6Le Pen's future as French presidential contender... - Newsroomnewsroom.ap.org
7. How do the proposed economic platforms of Marine Le Pen and Édouard Philippe compare on key issues like inflation, public debt, and EU policy?
| Marine Le Pen 2027 Election Probability | 33-34% (as of August 31, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Édouard Philippe 2027 Election Probability | 25-26% (as of August 31, 2026) [1][2] |
| Marine Le Pen's Proposed Cost-Cutting Plan | €125 billion [3][4] |
Sources (10)
- 1Next French Presidential Election Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
- 2Next French Presidential Election — odds compared across every prediction market · Predictions Networkthebestpredictionmarkets.com
- 3French presidential hopefuls clash over economy and EU in first debate - RFIrfi.fr
- 4Who next? Economy dominates first debate between French presidential candidates | Euronewseuronews.com
- 5If Marine Le Pen wins: A European guide to a far-right France – European Council on Foreign Relationsecfr.eu
- 6Exclusive data analysis and mapping reveal the link between rising poverty and support for France's far right | The Associated Pressap.org
- 7French far-right leader Marine Le Pen barred from seeking office for 5 years, a political earthquake | The Associated Pressap.org
- 8Former PM Philippe launches presidential campaign to take on far right in France – POLITICOpolitico.eu
- 9Former French PM Philippe slams far right as two-faced at first major campaign rally – POLITICOpolitico.eu
- 10Edouard Philippe tilts right to combat far right in French presidential race – POLITICOpolitico.eu
8. What is the timeline for Marine Le Pen's legal appeal, and how would a final ruling before 2027 impact the National Rally's candidate strategy?
| Appeal Ruling Expected By | Early April 2027 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Conviction Date and Ban | April 2025 with a five-year public office ban [3] |
| Presidential Election Date | April 18, 2027 [1][2] |
Sources (8)
- 1Top French court will rule on Le Pen's appeal before 2027...politico.eu
- 2Convicted but still running: What Marine Le Pen’s political gamble means for France and the rest of Europe - European Policy Centrecep.org.rs
- 3French far-right leader Marine Le Pen barred from seeking...ap.org
- 4Marine Le Pen to run for French presidency and appeal conviction in top courtbbc.com
- 5France's Le Pen cleared to run for president in 2027 but with ankle bracelet - France 24france24.com
- 6Does Le Pen's decision to run for presidency make a far-right victory more likely?thelocal.fr
- 7Le Pen's future as French presidential contender hinges on Paris appeals court ruling | AP Newsapnews.com
- 8France: Le Pen vows to run despite upheld graft convictiondw.com
9. What evidence from polling and party endorsements supports Édouard Philippe's position as the leading centrist challenger to Marine Le Pen?
| Marine Le Pen conviction | April 2025, barred from public office for five years [1] |
|---|---|
| Philippe's prior challenger status | Most viable centrist challenger to the far-right (pre-conviction) [2][3][4][5] |
| Marine Le Pen's prior first-round polling | 33%–36% (August 2026 polls, before conviction) [6][7][8] |
Sources (10)
- 1French far-right leader Marine Le Pen barred from seeking office for 5 years, a political earthquake | The Associated Pressap.org
- 2Former French PM best placed to beat far right in 2027 presidential race, poll shows – POLITICOpolitico.eu
- 3Race for French presidency sees ex-PM Philippe as early favourite to beat populistsbbc.com
- 4Edouard Philippe tilts right to combat far right in French presidential race – POLITICOpolitico.eu
- 5Former PM Philippe launches presidential campaign to take on far right in France – POLITICOpolitico.eu
- 6Voting intentions for the next presidential election - Ifop Groupifop.com
- 7French election 2027: Poll puts Mélenchon in contention...euronews.com
- 8Poll for the Presidential Election 2027: Marine Le Pen Leads in All the Hypothesesground.news
- 9Edouard Philippe Gains Key Endorsement for Presidency | Politicsdevdiscourse.com
- 10Maud Bregeon backs Édouard Philippe for 2027 bidstrasbourgcentre.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: April 30, 2027
Sources (13)
- 1Election 2027 -The dates of the 2027 presidential election are announced | Service Publicservice-public.gouv.fr
- 2France sets presidential election date as Macron finishes...france24.com
- 3France confirms dates for 2027 presidential electionrfi.fr
- 4French far-right leader Marine Le Pen barred from seeking office for 5 years, a political earthquake | The Associated Pressap.org
- 5Exclusive data analysis and mapping reveal the link between rising poverty and support for France's far right | The Associated Pressap.org
- 6Jean-Marie Le Pen, French far-right leader known for fiery...ap.org
- 72027 French presidential election: full list of confirmed and expected candidatesconnexionfrance.com
- 8France heads for post-Macron era on April 18 and May 2brusselssignal.eu
- 9Polymarket Deep Dive: Why the Next French Presidential Election Market Is More Fragile Than It Looksainvest.com
- 10Bardella Drops to 8% as Le Pen Returns and Attal Campaigns Hard | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com
- 11Will Édouard Philippe Win the Next French Presidential Election? | Lines.comlines.com
- 12France 2027: Le Pen Leads, But Rules and Volatility Obscure the Path to the Élyséeainvest.com
- 13Daybreak Weekend: Jackson Hole, France Conference, Tokyo CPI | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com