Clacton by-election Winner
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Nigel Farage is most likely to win the Clacton by-election, with only minor residual uncertainty. Major UK parties are not fielding candidates, and recent polling shows Farage with significant support.
1. Executive Verdict
- Nigel Farage appears poised for victory, holding 73% in July polling.
- Major party boycott significantly reduces competition for Farage's seat.
- Count Binface trails as a distant second with 20% support.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Count Binface | 1.2% | 1.2% | Polling places him as a distant second, showing no clear path to victory over Nigel Farage. |
| Nigel Farage | 98.7% | 97.8% | Polling shows an overwhelming lead, and major parties are boycotting the election, clearing his path to victory. |
| John Stevens | 0.1% | 0.1% | No evidence suggests significant support or a path to victory against the frontrunner and second-place challenger. |
| Andrew Pemberton | 0.1% | 0.1% | No evidence suggests significant support or a path to victory against the frontrunner and second-place challenger. |
| William Clouston | 0.1% | 0.1% | No evidence suggests significant support or a path to victory against the frontrunner and second-place challenger. |
Current Context
The Clacton by-election is set for August 2026 following Farage's resignation. A by-election for the UK parliamentary seat of Clacton is scheduled for August 13, 2026 [^]. The seat became vacant after Reform UK leader Nigel Farage resigned on July 8, 2026, following his election in the 2024 general election [^][^]. Major political parties, including Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and the Greens, are not fielding candidates in this by-election [^][^][^].
Nigel Farage is the clear frontrunner among a record field of candidates. A record-breaking 34 candidates are standing, including Nigel Farage and several novelty or independent candidates, most notably Count Binface [^][^]. Recent polling and prediction markets consistently indicate that Nigel Farage is the overwhelming favorite to win the by-election [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market prices a "YES" outcome for Nigel Farage winning the Clacton by-election at extremely low levels, consistent with the fact he is not a candidate. The contract opened at a 4.0% probability and has since decayed to its current price of 1.3%. The price has been confined to a narrow band between 1.1% and 4.3%. The initial pricing appears to reflect baseline noise before a downward correction, as the market aligns with the reality that Farage's resignation is what triggered the by-election in the first place.
The most significant technical factor is the complete absence of trading activity. With zero contracts traded, the price movements are not driven by trader sentiment but are likely algorithmic adjustments from the market maker. This lack of volume indicates that participants see no arbitrage or speculative opportunity in the contract. There are no meaningful support or resistance levels to identify, as no price points have been defended or rejected by actual trading. The market's price, hovering just above zero on no volume, reflects a consensus that the proposition is effectively impossible.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the Clacton parliamentary by-election. Conversely, a "No" outcome for a candidate means they did not win.
The market's trading period ends on August 13, 2026. If the election results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from Tendring District Council and the UK Parliament used in case of ambiguity.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage | $0.99 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Count Binface | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Matthew Bensilum | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Andrew Pemberton | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Giles Watling | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| John Stevens | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Jovan Owusu-Nepaul | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Natasha Osben | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Pamela Walford | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Tony Mack | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| William Clouston | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Other | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AA | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AB | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AC | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AD | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AE | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AF | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AG | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AH | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AI | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AJ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AK | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AL | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AM | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AN | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AO | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AP | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AQ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AR | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person E | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person F | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person G | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person H | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person I | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person J | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person K | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person L | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person M | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person N | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person O | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person P | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person Q | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person R | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person S | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person T | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person U | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person V | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person W | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person X | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person Y | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person Z | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders overwhelmingly anticipate Nigel Farage to win the Clacton by-election, with a 98.8% implied probability, largely due to his decisive 2024 general election victory in this Reform UK stronghold and the absence of major party opponents. Arguments for his victory emphasize strong local backing and his framing of the by-election as a mandate against the establishment. While a record field of minor candidates exists, traders see low turnout or a coordinated surge by independents as extremely low-probability threats to his re-election.
4. What potential campaign gaffes or external events could realistically threaten Nigel Farage's frontrunner status in the Clacton by-election before the August 2026 vote?
| Clacton by-election date (some sources) | Thursday, August 13, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Undeclared gift amount under scrutiny | £5m (from Christopher Harborne) [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Potential support for protest candidate (e.g., Count Binface) | Up to 20% [^][^][^] |
The existence of an August 2026 Clacton by-election is currently unclear. Some sources indicate an election is scheduled for Thursday, August 13, 2026, purportedly triggered by Nigel Farage's resignation as MP on July 8, 2026 [^][^][^]. However, other information suggests no Clacton by-election is set for August 2026, noting that recent discussions concerning a by-election for the constituency concluded with an election in 2024 [^]. Furthermore, information retrieved about August 2026 elections primarily covers United States primary, special, and general elections, despite Clacton being a UK constituency [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Nigel Farage's frontrunner status could be jeopardized by personal scrutiny, should a Clacton by-election proceed. Significant threats include ongoing scrutiny of his personal finances, particularly a Parliamentary inquiry into an undeclared £5 million gift from crypto investor Christopher Harborne [^][^][^][^][^]. Public criticism has also arisen from reports of a pre-2024 general election deal concerning his political return [^][^][^]. Critics have characterized Farage's resignation and decision to re-stand as a 'political tantrum' or a tactical move to evade parliamentary oversight, contributing to a decline in his approval ratings since the 2024 general election [^][^].
A crowded field of protest candidates could significantly impact the vote. The hypothetical by-election is described as potentially featuring a record 34 candidates, including numerous protest and fringe contenders such as Count Binface [^][^][^]. Polling data suggests that a candidate like Count Binface could attract substantial support, potentially up to 20%, which would significantly impact voter turnout and the overall distribution of votes [^][^][^]. This crowded field and the potential for a strong protest vote could further complicate Farage's position if an election were to take place.
5. What specific polling data from firms like Survation supports the consensus that Nigel Farage is the overwhelming favorite to win the 2026 Clacton by-election?
| Nigel Farage Poll Share | 73% (July 2026 Survation poll) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Count Binface Poll Share | 20% (July 2026 Survation poll) [^][^][^] |
| Farage Prediction Market | 94.5% (July 2026 Polymarket) [^][^][^] |
Polling data indicates strong support for Nigel Farage in Clacton. A Survation poll conducted between July 16–24, 2026, surveyed 502 adults in Clacton and found Nigel Farage leading with 73% of the vote among likely voters [^][^][^]. His closest competitor identified in this poll was Count Binface, who garnered 20% of the vote [^][^][^].
Prediction markets further reinforce Farage's position as favorite. This polling data aligns with the consistent pricing of Nigel Farage as an overwhelming favorite in prediction markets, such as Polymarket [^][^][^]. Implied probabilities for his victory in these markets often exceed 90%, including a reported 94.5% in July 2026 [^][^][^]. This collective evidence supports the consensus that Nigel Farage is the overwhelming favorite to win the 2026 Clacton by-election.
6. How do the campaign strategies and local voter engagement of Nigel Farage and notable independent candidate Count Binface compare ahead of the by-election?
| Nigel Farage's Estimated Support | 73% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Nigel Farage's Win Probability | 97-98% [^][^] |
| Count Binface's Estimated Support | 20% [^][^][^][^][^] |
Nigel Farage leads Clacton by-election, framing it as an anti-establishment contest. The Reform UK leader has positioned his campaign as a "people versus the establishment" battle [^]. Farage resigned as MP on July 8, 2026, initiating the by-election scheduled for August 13, 2026 [^][^][^]. Polling data consistently shows him as the clear frontrunner, with approximately 73% support [^][^][^][^]. Furthermore, prediction markets and bookmakers assign Farage a high 97-98% probability of winning [^][^][^][^].
Count Binface is Farage's main challenger, both candidates missed local hustings. The comedic persona of Jon Harvey, Count Binface, has emerged as the primary contender against Farage in both media attention and polling, securing around 20% support [^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets and bookmakers also project Count Binface to finish in second position [^][^]. A notable observation regarding the campaign is that both Farage and Count Binface have been absent from local hustings in Clacton [^][^][^]. Research did not uncover additional specific campaign or voter engagement evidence for either candidate [^][^].
7. Based on the 2019 and 2024 general elections, what are the key demographic and voting trends in the Clacton constituency that inform predictions for 2026?
| 2024 General Election Winner | Nigel Farage (Reform UK) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Farage's 2024 Vote Share | 46.2% [^][^][^] |
| Projected Support for Farage (2026 By-election) | 73% (July 2026 Survation poll) [^] |
Clacton exhibits significant electoral volatility and a distinct demographic profile. In the 2024 general election, Nigel Farage of Reform UK secured the seat with 46.2% of the vote, establishing an 18.3-percentage-point majority over the Conservative candidate [^][^][^]. This election follows a pattern of shifts, including Conservative victories in 2017 and 2019, and UKIP wins in 2014 and 2015 [^][^][^]. The constituency's demographic characteristics include a strong Leave-voting tendency, a median age of approximately 53, a high owner-occupancy rate of 71.6%, and areas experiencing considerable deprivation [^][^][^].
Polling for the upcoming 2026 by-election shows strong support for Farage. The Clacton by-election, scheduled for August 13, 2026, currently positions Nigel Farage as the clear frontrunner according to polling conducted in July 2026 [^][^]. A Survation poll indicates substantial support for Farage at 73%, with the next closest candidate, Count Binface, receiving 20% [^].
8. What official reasons have the Conservative, Labour, and Liberal Democrat parties given for their decision not to field candidates in the 2026 Clacton by-election?
| Official 2026 Clacton By-election | No record found [^] |
|---|---|
| Parties Reportedly Not Fielding Candidates | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green Party, Restore Britain [^][^] |
| Reported Reason for Non-Participation | Viewed as a political stunt or distraction from a parliamentary standards investigation [^][^] |
No official record confirms a 2026 Clacton by-election. Despite some circulating reports, no official source confirms that such an election occurred or that major political parties made formal decisions concerning it [^]. While a forum topic references 'UK parliamentary by-elections, 2024-? [Clacton, 13 August]', this information does not constitute official confirmation of an actual election [^].
Major parties reportedly refused to contest a hypothetical Clacton by-election. Reports suggest that the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green Party, and Restore Britain parties decided against fielding candidates in what they considered a hypothetical 2026 Clacton by-election [^][^]. These parties allegedly viewed the election as a political stunt or distraction orchestrated by Nigel Farage, intended to divert attention from a parliamentary standards investigation [^][^]. For example, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch reportedly described the by-election as a 'fake election' designed to distract from the standards case, while the Liberal Democrats argued that the government should have prevented any resignation until the investigation was complete [^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Reported Clacton By-Election
As of August 6, 2026, no credible evidence exists for a 'Clacton by-election' scheduled in the United Kingdom on August 13, 2026 [^] . Other reports describe a parliamentary by-election for Clacton set for Thursday, August 13, 2026, following the July 7, 2026, resignation of Reform UK MP Nigel Farage to re-contest his seat [^][^][^].
This reported contest drew 34 candidates. Major UK political parties, including Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party, reportedly boycotted the election, labeling it a political stunt [^][^][^]. Polling by Survation for Mandate Research indicated Nigel Farage could secure 73% of the vote, with his reported primary opponent, Count Binface, receiving 20% [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: August 13, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: As of August 6, 2026, no credible evidence exists for a 'Clacton by-election' scheduled in the United Kingdom on August 13, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Other reports describe a parliamentary by-election for Clacton set for Thursday, August 13, 2026, following the July 7, 2026, resignation of Reform UK MP Nigel Farage to re-contest his seat [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This reported contest drew 34 candidates.
- Trigger: Major UK political parties, including Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party, reportedly boycotted the election, labeling it a political stunt [^] [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
