Next Serbian presidential election

Aleksandar Vučić’s resignation and parliamentary defeat reset the presidential race. As of October 26, 2026, Vučić conceded defeat in the October 25 parliamentary election, where the student-backed Student List is projected to win 135–140 of 250 seats, against the SNS camp’s projected 103–105 seats ^[1][2][3][4]. This fundamental shift mandates a presidential vote no later than December 27, 2026, within the three-month constitutional window following Vučić’s September 27 resignation ^{[5][4][6][7][8][9]}. Acting president Ana Brnabić is responsible for calling the election; the earliest practical voting window opens in November, requiring 30–60 days between the call and the vote ^{[5][4][6][7][8][9]}. Vučić is constitutionally barred from another presidential term, having served two ^[5][4][7]. His resignation aimed to enable a return to the premiership, suggesting the next president may contend with a powerful prime ministerial center if Vučić’s bloc retains influence ^[5][4][7].

The candidate field remains unsettled, with prediction markets showing divergence. No major candidate has been formally confirmed by either the student movement or the SNS camp ^{[2][5][10][11]}. Names discussed for the student-backed side include Vladan Đokić, Dejan Bodiroga, and Radomir Šajčić ^{[2][5][10][11]}. SNS-associated possibilities include Ana Brnabić, Đuro Macut, Miloš Vučević, and Vladan Petrov ^{[2][5][10][11]}. Polymarket’s October 26 snapshot priced Ana Brnabić as the leading named candidate at 35%, followed by Đuro Macut at 17%, Vladan Đokić at 13%, Miloš Vučević at 13%, Vladan Petrov at 10%, and Zdravko Ponoš at 5%, with about $17,016 volume ^[11]. ElectionTracker’s October 26 market snapshot differed materially, showing Vladan Đokić leading at 26%, followed by Miloš Vučević at 10%, Đuro Macut at 5%, Zdravko Ponoš and Vladan Petrov each at 4%, and Ana Brnabić at 2% ^[10]. Both market trackers explicitly state their figures are prediction-market probabilities, not polling or forecasts ^[10][11]. Kalshi’s bloc-level contract displayed an SNS-backed candidate at roughly 54¢ (77% implied probability) and a student-backed candidate at roughly 51¢ (46% implied probability); this mismatch indicates contract or display methodology issues, precluding a clean candidate forecast ^[12].

Structural uncertainty favors a student-backed candidate in a runoff scenario. Expert analysis emphasizes this structural uncertainty ^[5][9]. Dušan Pavlović suggested Vučić preferred the parliamentary vote first to demoralize anti-government voters, potentially improving a weaker SNS presidential candidate’s prospects ^[5][9]. The OSW noted the ruling camp lacks an obvious nationally competitive successor, as politics centralized around Vučić ^[5][9]. The most consequential scenario involves a student-backed candidate benefiting from the Student List’s parliamentary majority and anti-government momentum ^[2][3][4]. The student movement must still select a presidential nominee and reconcile its diverse activist, academic, liberal, and potentially conservative constituencies ^[2][3][4]. The race is too unsettled for a high-confidence individual winner ^[10][11][8]. If market evidence is considered, Ana Brnabić is the narrowest Polymarket favorite, while Vladan Đokić leads ElectionTracker ^[10][11]. The more defensible forecast points to a runoff between a student-backed candidate and an SNS-associated candidate, with the student-backed side holding a strategic advantage following the October parliamentary result ^[10][11][8].