Shen Bo-yang
Market Model 23.0% 19.8%
Chiang Wan-an
Market Model 81.0% 75.4%
International elections Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (19)
Volt
Market Model 73.0% 70.0%
FDP
Market Model 13.0% 10.0%
CDU
Market Model 99.0% 87.7%
AfD
Market Model 2.0% 2.1%
Su Chiao-hui
Market Model 11.0% 15.6%
Lee Shu-chuan
Market Model 71.0% 84.4%
At least 5%
Market Model 2.0% 23.4%
At least 11%
Market Model 5.0% 0.0%
AfD
Market Model 10.0% 0.0%
CDU
Market Model 42.0% 48.8%
Die Linke
Market Model 1.0% 86.9%
Greens
Market Model 85.0% 86.9%
At least 20%
Market Model 4.0% 12.0%
At least 26%
Market Model 4.0% 4.0%
APC
Market Model 63.0% 93.2%
Labour
Market Model 4.0% 6.4%
Before July 1, 2027
Market Model 26.0% 15.4%
Before January 1, 2028
Market Model 29.0% 17.3%
New Democracy
Market Model 77.0% 89.7%
SYRIZA
Market Model 0.5% 0.4%
Australian Labor Party
Market Model 59.0% 47.0%
Liberal-National Coalition
Market Model 43.0% 41.8%
Coalition including ODM
Market Model 56.0% 57.2%
Coalition including UDA
Market Model 36.0% 31.3%
Flávio Bolsonaro
Market Model 46.0% 35.9%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Market Model 52.0% 48.6%
Javier Milei
Market Model 64.0% 67.8%
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
Market Model 7.9% 6.8%
Union of Greens and Farmers
Market Model 2.0% 8.2%
New Unity
Market Model 35.0% 27.1%
John Coupar
Market Model 12.0% 11.2%
Ken Sim
Market Model 32.0% 27.1%
Iliana Yotova
Market Model 57.0% 42.9%
Nikolai Denkov
Market Model 20.0% 17.4%
Bennett 2026
Market Model 5.1% 16.8%
Likud
Market Model 49.0% 50.0%
Expired Markets (17)
At least 20%
Market Model 4.0% 1.0%
At least 23%
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
At least 13%
Market Model 98.0% 99.9%
At least 19%
Market Model 98.0% 99.9%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Yes
Market Model 84.0% 88.4%
Keiko Fujimori
Market Model 72.0% 60.3%
Roberto Sánchez
Market Model 29.0% 39.7%
Abelardo de la Espriella
Market Model 82.0% 71.3%
Iván Cepeda Castro
Market Model 16.0% 28.6%
Patriotic Front
Market Model 9.9% 11.4%
United Party for National Development
Market Model 63.0% 88.6%
Yes
Market Model 41.0% 48.9%
Keiko Fujimori vs. Rafael López Aliaga
Market Model 4.0% 3.2%
Keiko Fujimori vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino
Market Model 98.0% 85.7%
Civil Contract
Market Model 92.0% 84.8%
Armenia Alliance
Market Model 3.3% 3.1%
Plaid Cymru
Market Model 86.0% 67.1%
Reform
Market Model 3.6% 23.6%
Janez Janša
Market Model 83.0% 70.5%
Robert Golob
Market Model 7.0% 4.5%
SNP
Market Model 99.9% 94.7%
Conservatives
Market Model 0.1% 1.7%
Rafael López Aliaga
Market Model 2.1% 2.9%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
Market Model 95.8% 93.7%
Keiko Fujimori
Market Model 96.4% 89.4%
Carlos Álvarez
Market Model 0.1% 2.8%
Iván Cepeda Castro
Market Model 89.0% 92.8%
Abelardo de la Espriella
Market Model 15.0% 6.4%
Chong Won-o
Market Model 89.0% 71.1%
Oh Se-hoon
Market Model 10.0% 13.4%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swedish general election: Sweden Democrats vote percent Top outcome: At least 20% | 4.0% | 1.0% | High | — | |
| Swedish general election: Moderate Party vote percent Top outcome: At least 13% | 98.0% | 99.9% | High | — | |
| Iceland EU Membership Negotiations Referendum Yes refers to: Yes | 1.0% | 0.6% | Med | — | |
| Will Serbia announce a snap election? Yes refers to: Before Oct 1, 2026 | 84.0% | 88.4% | High | — | |
| Peru Presidential election winner? Top outcome: Keiko Fujimori | 72.0% | 60.3% | High | — | |
| Who will win the next Colombian presidential election? Top outcome: Abelardo de la Espriella | 82.0% | 71.3% | High | — | |
| Who will win the next Zambian National Assembly election? Top outcome: Patriotic Front | 9.9% | 11.4% | High | — | |
| Will the Switzerland 10 million population cap referendum pass? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 41.0% | 48.9% | Med | — | |
| Peru presidential election matchup Top outcome: Keiko Fujimori vs. Rafael López Aliaga | 4.0% | 3.2% | High | — | |
| Who will win the next Armenian parliamentary election? Top outcome: Civil Contract | 92.0% | 84.8% | High | — | |
| Who will win the 2026 Welsh Parliament election? Top outcome: Plaid Cymru | 86.0% | 67.1% | High | — | |
| Who will be Prime Minister of Slovenia after their election? Top outcome: Janez Janša | 83.0% | 70.5% | High | — | |
| Who will win the 2026 Scottish Parliament election? Top outcome: SNP | 99.9% | 94.7% | High | — | |
| Peru presidential election: first round second place? Top outcome: Rafael López Aliaga | 2.1% | 2.9% | High | — | |
| Peru presidential election: first round winner? Top outcome: Keiko Fujimori | 96.4% | 89.4% | High | — | |
| Colombian presidential election first round winner? Top outcome: Iván Cepeda Castro | 89.0% | 92.8% | High | — | |
| Who will win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election? Top outcome: Chong Won-o | 89.0% | 71.1% | High | — |
