International elections Markets

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.

Active Markets (44)

Next Serbian presidential election winner? Kalshi

SNS-backed candidate

Market Model 1.0% 8.3%

Student-backed candidate

Market Model 11.0% 91.7%

6.5K contracts Refresh

SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia? Kalshi

SNS-led list, ≥20%

Market Model 95.0% 72.2%

SNS-led list, ≥10%

Market Model 2.0% 72.2%

10.3K contracts Refresh

Alberta referendum: Remain vote share? Kalshi

At least 60%

Market Model 95.0% 99.5%

At least 70%

Market Model 91.0% 99.5%

60.0K contracts Refresh

Saanich mayoral election winner? Kalshi

Rishi Sharma

Market Model 95.0% 94.1%

Zac de Vries

Market Model 6.0% 4.4%

7.0K contracts Refresh

Revelstoke mayoral election winner? Kalshi

Taha Attiah

Market Model 91.0% 100.0%

Gary Sulz

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

2.3K contracts Refresh

Prince George mayoral election winner? Kalshi

Simon Yu

Market Model 1.0% 0.9%

Garth Frizzell

Market Model 99.0% 91.2%

13.2K contracts Refresh

Quebec general election: PLQ number of seats? Kalshi

30 or more

Market Model 70.0% 100.0%

36 or more

Market Model 98.0% 100.0%

5.6K contracts Refresh

Brazil Gubernatorial Elections: Most Governorships Won Kalshi

Market Model 68.0% 70.3%

PSD

Market Model 21.0% 19.6%

6.8K contracts Refresh

Quebec general election: CAQ number of seats? Kalshi

34 or more

Market Model 7.0% 3.5%

12 or more

Market Model 17.0% 34.8%

12.8K contracts Refresh

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election: CDU vote share? Kalshi

At least 5%

Market Model 1.0% 0.6%

At least 11%

Market Model 1.0% 0.2%

40.7K contracts Refresh

Taipei mayoral election winner? Kalshi

Shen Bo-yang

Market Model 23.0% 19.8%

Chiang Wan-an

Market Model 81.0% 75.4%

3.5K contracts Refresh

Which of these parties will win a seat in the Berlin state election? Kalshi

Volt

Market Model 73.0% 70.0%

FDP

Market Model 13.0% 10.0%

7.7K contracts Refresh

Berlin State Election: 2nd Place Kalshi

CDU

Market Model 99.0% 87.7%

AfD

Market Model 2.0% 2.1%

9.9K contracts Refresh

New Taipei mayoral election winner? Kalshi

Su Chiao-hui

Market Model 11.0% 15.6%

Lee Shu-chuan

Market Model 71.0% 84.4%

2.9K contracts Refresh

Osnabrück mayoral election winner? Kalshi

AfD

Market Model 10.0% 0.0%

CDU

Market Model 42.0% 48.8%

8.1K contracts Refresh

Swedish general election: Sweden Democrats vote percent Kalshi

At least 20%

Market Model 4.0% 1.0%

At least 23%

Market Model 3.0% 1.0%

34.8K contracts Refresh

Hannover mayoral election winner? Kalshi

Die Linke

Market Model 1.0% 86.9%

Greens

Market Model 85.0% 86.9%

17.9K contracts Refresh

Swedish general election: Moderate Party vote percent Kalshi

At least 13%

Market Model 98.0% 99.9%

At least 19%

Market Model 98.0% 99.9%

29.0K contracts Refresh

Saxony-Anhalt state election: CDU vote percent Kalshi

At least 20%

Market Model 4.0% 12.0%

At least 26%

Market Model 4.0% 4.0%

2.6K contracts Refresh

Iceland EU Membership Negotiations Referendum Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 1.0% 0.6%

56.0K contracts Refresh

Peru Presidential election winner? Kalshi

Keiko Fujimori

Market Model 72.0% 60.3%

Roberto Sánchez

Market Model 29.0% 39.7%

4.7M contracts Refresh

Who will win the next Colombian presidential election? Kalshi

Abelardo de la Espriella

Market Model 82.0% 71.3%

Iván Cepeda Castro

Market Model 16.0% 28.6%

1.4M contracts Refresh

Who will win the next Zambian National Assembly election? Kalshi

Patriotic Front

Market Model 9.9% 11.4%

United Party for National Development

Market Model 63.0% 88.6%

10.0K contracts Refresh

Who will win the next Nigerian Senate election? Kalshi

APC

Market Model 63.0% 93.2%

Labour

Market Model 4.0% 6.4%

197 contracts Refresh

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan? Kalshi

Before July 1, 2027

Market Model 26.0% 15.4%

Before January 1, 2028

Market Model 29.0% 17.3%

15.3K contracts Refresh

Will the Switzerland 10 million population cap referendum pass? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 41.0% 48.9%

10.9K contracts Refresh

Who will win the next Greek general election? Kalshi

New Democracy

Market Model 77.0% 89.7%

SYRIZA

Market Model 0.5% 0.4%

4.3K contracts Refresh

Peru presidential election matchup Kalshi

Keiko Fujimori vs. Rafael López Aliaga

Market Model 4.0% 3.2%

Keiko Fujimori vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino

Market Model 98.0% 85.7%

499.1K contracts Refresh

Who will win the next Australian House election? Kalshi

Australian Labor Party

Market Model 59.0% 47.0%

Liberal-National Coalition

Market Model 43.0% 41.8%

16.0K contracts Refresh

Who will win the next Kenyan Senate election? Kalshi

Coalition including ODM

Market Model 56.0% 57.2%

Coalition including UDA

Market Model 36.0% 31.3%

9.4K contracts Refresh

Brazil presidential election: first round winner? Kalshi

Flávio Bolsonaro

Market Model 46.0% 35.9%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Market Model 52.0% 48.6%

11.8K contracts Refresh

Who will win the next Armenian parliamentary election? Kalshi

Civil Contract

Market Model 92.0% 84.8%

Armenia Alliance

Market Model 3.3% 3.1%

9.3K contracts Refresh

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? Kalshi

Javier Milei

Market Model 64.0% 67.8%

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta

Market Model 7.9% 6.8%

7.1K contracts Refresh

Who will win the 2026 Welsh Parliament election? Kalshi

Plaid Cymru

Market Model 86.0% 67.1%

Reform

Market Model 3.6% 23.6%

29.5K contracts Refresh

Who will win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary election? Kalshi

Union of Greens and Farmers

Market Model 2.0% 8.2%

New Unity

Market Model 35.0% 27.1%

6.9K contracts Refresh

Who will be Prime Minister of Slovenia after their election? Kalshi

Janez Janša

Market Model 83.0% 70.5%

Robert Golob

Market Model 7.0% 4.5%

68.7K contracts Refresh

Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Kalshi

John Coupar

Market Model 12.0% 11.2%

Ken Sim

Market Model 32.0% 27.1%

35.8K contracts Refresh

Who will win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election? Kalshi

Iliana Yotova

Market Model 57.0% 42.9%

Nikolai Denkov

Market Model 20.0% 17.4%

14.5K contracts Refresh

Who will win the 2026 Scottish Parliament election? Kalshi

SNP

Market Model 99.9% 94.7%

Conservatives

Market Model 0.1% 1.7%

21.0K contracts Refresh

Peru presidential election: first round second place? Kalshi

Rafael López Aliaga

Market Model 2.1% 2.9%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

Market Model 95.8% 93.7%

399.2K contracts Refresh

Who will win the next Israeli legislative election? Kalshi

Bennett 2026

Market Model 5.1% 16.8%

Likud

Market Model 49.0% 50.0%

50.3K contracts Refresh

Peru presidential election: first round winner? Kalshi

Keiko Fujimori

Market Model 96.4% 89.4%

Carlos Álvarez

Market Model 0.1% 2.8%

270.2K contracts Refresh

Colombian presidential election first round winner? Kalshi

Iván Cepeda Castro

Market Model 89.0% 92.8%

Abelardo de la Espriella

Market Model 15.0% 6.4%

136.4K contracts Refresh

Who will win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election? Kalshi

Chong Won-o

Market Model 89.0% 71.1%

Oh Se-hoon

Market Model 10.0% 13.4%

57.4K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Next Serbian presidential election winner? Top outcome: SNS-backed candidate	1.0%	8.3%	High	82	Refresh
SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia? Top outcome: SNS-led list, ≥20%	95.0%	72.2%	High	—	Refresh
Alberta referendum: Remain vote share? Top outcome: At least 60%	95.0%	99.5%	High	—	Refresh
Saanich mayoral election winner? Top outcome: Rishi Sharma	95.0%	94.1%	High	—	Refresh
Revelstoke mayoral election winner? Top outcome: Taha Attiah	91.0%	100.0%	Med	—	Refresh
Prince George mayoral election winner? Top outcome: Simon Yu	1.0%	0.9%	High	—	Refresh
Quebec general election: PLQ number of seats? Top outcome: 30 or more	70.0%	100.0%	High	—	Refresh
Brazil Gubernatorial Elections: Most Governorships Won Top outcome: PL	68.0%	70.3%	High	—	Refresh
Quebec general election: CAQ number of seats? Top outcome: 34 or more	7.0%	3.5%	High	—	Refresh
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election: CDU vote share? Top outcome: At least 5%	1.0%	0.6%	High	—	Refresh
Taipei mayoral election winner? Top outcome: Shen Bo-yang	23.0%	19.8%	High	90	Refresh
Which of these parties will win a seat in the Berlin state election? Top outcome: Volt	73.0%	70.0%	Med	—	Refresh
Berlin State Election: 2nd Place Top outcome: CDU	99.0%	87.7%	High	—	Refresh
New Taipei mayoral election winner? Top outcome: Su Chiao-hui	11.0%	15.6%	Med	85	Refresh
Osnabrück mayoral election winner? Top outcome: AfD	10.0%	0.0%	High	—	Refresh
Swedish general election: Sweden Democrats vote percent Top outcome: At least 20%	4.0%	1.0%	High	—	Refresh
Hannover mayoral election winner? Top outcome: Die Linke	1.0%	86.9%	High	—	Refresh
Swedish general election: Moderate Party vote percent Top outcome: At least 13%	98.0%	99.9%	High	—	Refresh
Saxony-Anhalt state election: CDU vote percent Top outcome: At least 20%	4.0%	12.0%	High	—	Refresh
Iceland EU Membership Negotiations Referendum Yes refers to: Yes	1.0%	0.6%	Med	—	Refresh
Peru Presidential election winner? Top outcome: Keiko Fujimori	72.0%	60.3%	High	—	Refresh
Who will win the next Colombian presidential election? Top outcome: Abelardo de la Espriella	82.0%	71.3%	High	—	Refresh
Who will win the next Zambian National Assembly election? Top outcome: Patriotic Front	9.9%	11.4%	High	—	Refresh
Who will win the next Nigerian Senate election? Top outcome: APC	63.0%	93.2%	High	79	Refresh
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan? Top outcome: Before July 1, 2027	26.0%	15.4%	Med	59	Refresh
Will the Switzerland 10 million population cap referendum pass? Yes refers to: In 2026	41.0%	48.9%	Med	—	Refresh
Who will win the next Greek general election? Top outcome: New Democracy	77.0%	89.7%	High	72	Refresh
Peru presidential election matchup Top outcome: Keiko Fujimori vs. Rafael López Aliaga	4.0%	3.2%	High	—	Refresh
Who will win the next Australian House election? Top outcome: Australian Labor Party	59.0%	47.0%	High	76	Refresh
Who will win the next Kenyan Senate election? Top outcome: Coalition including ODM	56.0%	57.2%	High	71	Refresh
Brazil presidential election: first round winner? Top outcome: Flávio Bolsonaro	46.0%	35.9%	High	—	Refresh
Who will win the next Armenian parliamentary election? Top outcome: Civil Contract	92.0%	84.8%	High	—	Refresh
Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? Top outcome: Javier Milei	64.0%	67.8%	High	78	Refresh
Who will win the 2026 Welsh Parliament election? Top outcome: Plaid Cymru	86.0%	67.1%	High	—	Refresh
Who will win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary election? Top outcome: Union of Greens and Farmers	2.0%	8.2%	High	—	Refresh
Who will be Prime Minister of Slovenia after their election? Top outcome: Janez Janša	83.0%	70.5%	High	—	Refresh
Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Top outcome: John Coupar	12.0%	11.2%	High	—	Refresh
Who will win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election? Top outcome: Iliana Yotova	57.0%	42.9%	High	—	Refresh
Who will win the 2026 Scottish Parliament election? Top outcome: SNP	99.9%	94.7%	High	—	Refresh
Peru presidential election: first round second place? Top outcome: Rafael López Aliaga	2.1%	2.9%	High	—	Refresh
Who will win the next Israeli legislative election? Top outcome: Bennett 2026	5.1%	16.8%	High	—	Refresh
Peru presidential election: first round winner? Top outcome: Keiko Fujimori	96.4%	89.4%	High	—	Refresh
Colombian presidential election first round winner? Top outcome: Iván Cepeda Castro	89.0%	92.8%	High	—	Refresh
Who will win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election? Top outcome: Chong Won-o	89.0%	71.1%	High	—	Refresh

Expired Markets (1)

Will Serbia announce a snap election? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.1K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Will Serbia announce a snap election?	—	—	High	—

International elections Markets

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