Quebec general election: PLQ number of seats?

Pollsters consistently projected a Parti Québécois lead over the PLQ in the final month before the October 2026 election. The Writ's final pre-election tracker, updated on October 4, 2026, projected the Parti Québécois to average 58 seats across 10,000 simulations ^[1]. This projection reflected a strengthening trajectory for the Parti Québécois, which had moved from approximately 47.4 average seats on September 14 to 59 seats on September 28, before settling at 58 seats in the final update. During this period, the PLQ's projected seat count remained in the mid-30s, specifically around 34 to 36 seats ^[4][5].

Other projections largely corroborated a PQ lead with varied seat numbers. PoliWave's central estimate placed the Parti Québécois at approximately 57 seats and the PLQ at 44 seats ^[2]. Route127's October 1 update estimated the Parti Québécois at 71 seats and the PLQ at 35 seats, a forecast notably more favorable to the Parti Québécois compared to The Writ or PoliWave ^[3]. Supporting these trends, late-September polling from Pallas Data and Léger showed the Parti Québécois around 30% and the PLQ in the low-to-mid-20s, though these surveys did not provide specific seat projections ^[6]. Prediction market pricing on October 3 further indicated a 94% probability for the PLQ to secure at least 29 seats, with the 32–35-seat PLQ bucket priced at 37% ^[7].

A strong leaders' debate could significantly shift PLQ support in key Montreal-area ridings. Such a catalyst would need to reframe the election as a choice between the PLQ's anti-referendum stance and a potential PQ government ^[4][1]. The most sensitive targets for such a shift would be close, multi-party contests within Montreal and its suburbs, where the PQ required wins to secure a majority ^[4][1]. PLQ leader Charles Milliard consistently emphasized "Referendum, No" during a period when the PQ was leading and actively seeking Montreal seats for a majority ^[4].

The campaign window is limited for major electoral shifts before the vote. The National Assembly was dissolved on August 27, leaving only the final campaign period for any debate or policy announcement to impact the October 5, 2026 vote ^[1][2]. While a significant policy announcement has the potential to influence PLQ voters, the provided research does not identify a specific PLQ announcement or quantify its likely effect ^[1].

Polling and markets show a challenging path for the PLQ. Available polling data from late September indicates the PLQ at approximately 22–26% provincially, trailing the PQ at 29–30% ^[1]. For the prediction market, which offered contracts for 28 through 37 seats and indicated 29 or more seats at 94% by October 3, a late catalyst would need to convert several marginal Montreal-area contests rather than merely improving the provincial vote share ^[3][4].

Q3 2026 polling revealed a collapse in CAQ voter support. A Léger poll conducted from September 25–27, 2026, indicated a significant decline, with the CAQ's support among decided voters dropping 4 points in a single week, from 20% to 16%, positioning them fourth overall ^[1][2][3]. This specific decrease was part of a broader trend observed throughout September, during which the CAQ's support consistently fell from approximately 23% in early September to 16% by the month's end ^[5][6][7][4].

Several parties, including the PLQ, significantly benefited from this shift. The Parti Québécois (PQ) and the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) were identified as primary beneficiaries, with the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) also showing gains in vote intention ^[1][3][7]. Public sentiment further underscored the desire for change, as the same September 25–27, 2026 Léger poll found that 74% of respondents wished for a change of government, a 9-point increase week-over-week ^[1][2][3]. The CAQ's weakness was particularly pronounced among francophone voters, where they secured only 18% support, trailing the PQ at 37% and the PCQ at 19% ^[2][3][4]. Concurrently, the PLQ experienced an increase from 22–23% in mid-September to 26% by September 27, while the PQ maintained strong support within the high-20s to 30% range ^[5][6][7][4]. Across late-Q3 polls, a consistent pattern emerged: the PQ held the lead, the CAQ was no longer dominant, and the PLQ became competitive for second place ^[8][4][9].

Public riding-level data primarily consists of modeled projections, not direct polls. By October 5, 2026, publicly available riding-level information for the 2026 Quebec election predominantly took the form of modeled projections rather than conventional, directly released riding-by-riding polls ^[1][2]. For ridings currently held by the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) and potential swing ridings, the most reliable public signal on this date was model-based, as opposed to direct local polling ^[2][1][6]. The public polling that underpinned these projections was generally provincial and regional in scope, rather than being specific to individual ridings ^[3][1][4].

Several platforms offer seat projections, but not robust direct riding polls. For instance, The Writ provided its comprehensive riding-level projections to subscribers, with its public methodology detailing projections for all 127 ridings, based on a combination of provincial and regional polls, local candidate data, and simulations ^[1][2]. While other publicly accessible resources such as PoliWave, Vote-Scope, and Global Election Simulator offered interactive seat projections and riding maps ^[7][8][3], there was no robust public dataset of independent, riding-level PLQ polling specifically for every key held or swing riding ^[5][1]. Consequently, any publicly visible riding numbers should be interpreted as forecasts or models, distinct from actual constituency polls, and their understanding must account for potential paywalls and the inherent uncertainty of models ^[5][1].

Both parties advocate for autonomy, but immigration policies diverge significantly. The Parti Québécois (PQ) and the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) both champion Quebec autonomy, tighter immigration control, and pro-business economic measures. The PQ's immigration policy explicitly aims to reduce the population, proposing an annual cap of 35,000 for permanent immigration and a reduction of non-permanent immigration by roughly half, targeting 200,000–250,000 by the end of a four-year term ^[1][2]. The PQ would also pause permanent economic immigration from outside Quebec, selecting economic immigrants primarily from temporary residents already in the province. Furthermore, it plans to tighten temporary-worker selection, setting the Temporary Foreign Worker Program at around 40,000 and aiming for 50,000 international students ^[1][2][8][9]. The PQ also seeks to accelerate family reunification for spouses and children and implement stronger French-integration requirements, including francophone schooling for children of temporary immigrants after 12 months in Quebec ^[2][8][9]. In contrast, the Conservative Party of Quebec views immigration as an economic asset when effectively managed, prioritizing economic immigration tailored to regional labor demands ^[10]. The PCQ seeks full Quebec control over all immigration powers, aiming to decentralize and modulate permanent immigration by region instead of applying a single province-wide threshold ^[10]. While restrictive regarding abuse and integration, particularly citing asylum-demand pressure on public services, its platform emphasizes increasing economically beneficial immigration and limiting channels considered socially or fiscally detrimental, without specifying a permanent-admission cap like the PQ's 35,000 ^[10][3].

Economic policies differ in scale, from targeted relief to aggressive liberalization. Economically, the Parti Québécois champions a more efficient state and provides targeted pro-business relief, such as reducing corporate tax from 11.5% to 9.5% and aiming for a 2.5% reduction in public-sector payroll costs over three years ^[1][2]. The PQ also plans to create a government-efficiency secretariat and invest an additional $450 million in agriculture over four years ^[1][2]. The Conservative Party of Quebec, however, proposes a much more aggressive tax-cutting and market-liberal agenda. This includes gradually reducing the provincial corporate-income-tax rate from 11.5% to 4.7% and cutting spending by $47 billion over five years ^[3][4][5][6]. The PCQ also aims to reduce the public service by 20,000 positions and regulatory requirements by 30% ^{[3][4][5][6][7]}. Furthermore, the PCQ intends to abolish the carbon market/carbon tax, suspend the provincial gasoline tax for five months, and significantly reduce direct business subsidies and tax credits ^[5][11][7].

Prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, priced Parti Québécois (PQ) win odds around 91–92% before the Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, despite polling near 27% ^[1][2][3]. This market sentiment was driven by a fragmented field and the refusal of PQ, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) leaders to form an anti-PQ alliance ^[1][2][3]. Bullish catalysts for PQ-market prices included a sustained polling lead, strong debate performance, and a credible balanced-budget plan ^[1][2][4]. Continued vote splitting among CAQ, PLQ, Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ), and Québec solidaire (QS), alongside federal-provincial or U.S.-trade tensions that could energize sovereigntist voters, also supported PQ market prices ^[1][2][4].

Conversely, bearish catalysts for PQ-market prices included late opposition consolidation or strategic voting, a CAQ recovery around cost-of-living or national-unity messaging, or a major debate failure ^[1][2][4]. A poll narrowing below roughly five points or a Québec solidaire breakthrough diverting PQ votes in urban ridings also posed downside risks ^[1][2][4]. Preliminary results reported on October 6, 2026, showed the Parti Québécois won 59 of Quebec's 127 seats, forming a minority government, as 64 seats were required for a majority ^[5][6][7]. The Quebec Liberal Party won 40 seats ^[5]. Election-night projections had PQ around 65 seats, but the final reported result was 59, demonstrating late seat-level uncertainty ^[1][8][3].