Quebec general election: CAQ number of seats?
Short Answer
The market expects the CAQ to win 20 or more seats in the Quebec general election, pricing this outcome as likely at 57.0%. This outlook contrasts with expert polling from Qc125 and 338Canada, which project the CAQ to secure significantly fewer seats, averaging 6-7 with an upper range of 29-30; the model assigns a 34.3% probability.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's sharp downward trend reflects polling models projecting a collapse for the incumbent Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ). Projections from 338Canada and Qc125 on September 24–25 show the CAQ, which currently holds 79 seats, winning only 6 or 7 seats in the next general election. This forecast, which gives the party a vote share of just 21.2%, underpins the market's current low probability. The models show the CAQ in a defensive position, with numerous seats held by cabinet ministers considered vulnerable.
A period of extreme price volatility occurred between September 15 and September 20, with multiple daily swings exceeding 70 percentage points. However, available research did not identify any specific news or social media catalysts coinciding with these movements. The spikes to over 80% run contrary to the fundamental polling data, which suggests a low probability of a CAQ victory. With total volume at only 440 contracts, these large price swings likely reflect market illiquidity rather than new information.
- Model projections indicate CAQ likely secures 12 or more seats.
- Expert polling aggregators cap CAQ's likely seat count near 29-30.
- Market probabilities for 20 or more seats exceed model expectations.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 or more | 7.0% | 3.5% | Expert polling models project the CAQ's maximum likely seat count at approximately 29-30 seats. |
| 12 or more | 17.0% | 34.8% | Expert polling aggregators project the CAQ's upper seat count reaching 29-30 seats. |
| 27 or more | 15.0% | 7.5% | Expert polling aggregators project the CAQ's maximum likely seat count around 29-30 seats. |
| 52 or more | 1.0% | 0.2% | Expert polling models project the CAQ's maximum likely seat count at approximately 29-30 seats. |
| 31 or more | 9.0% | 4.5% | Expert polling models project the CAQ's maximum likely seat count at approximately 29-30 seats. |
Current Context
Models project significant losses for the incumbent CAQ. The Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) currently holds 79 Members of the National Assembly (MNAs) but September 24–25, 2026, polling models project only 6–7 CAQ seats, with broad ranges from 0–29 or 0–30. [1][2] The CAQ faces a severe defensive position, with a projected vote share around 21.2%. It leads only a small number of ridings in current models, and many vulnerable seats are CAQ-held, including those of cabinet ministers and senior officials. [1][2][3][4] Quebec’s 2026 provincial general election is scheduled for Monday, October 5, 2026, encompassing 127 electoral divisions. [5][6] Recent polling indicates a fragmented race: the Parti Québécois (PQ) at roughly 27–29%, CAQ about 23–24%, Liberals about 20–23%, Conservatives about 16%, and Québec solidaire about 10–11%. This fragmentation contributes to high seat volatility. [7][8][9]
The Parti Québécois holds a strong lead in seat projections. The latest expert and model evidence favors the PQ, with The Writ’s September 21 model showing PQ leading 61 ridings and averaging about 49 seats. [3] A September 25 Qc125 analysis projected PQ at 62 seats, just below the 64-seat majority threshold, with 28 ridings classified as toss-ups. [4] Prediction market reporting indicates PQ at roughly 91–92% probability to win the most seats. [8] The CAQ’s probability of winning the election was reported near 14% on September 15. [9] For the specific CAQ-seat prediction market, Polymarket describes aggregator expectations around 24 CAQ seats on average. [10][11] A Kalshi-linked market reported 73% odds that CAQ wins at least 12 seats as of September 27; traders should verify directly on the exchange due to an apparent settlement-date inconsistency. [10]
The forecast indicates a PQ plurality with significant CAQ uncertainty. Key election administration dates included advance voting on September 27–28 and voting at returning offices from September 25–26 and September 29–October 1. [5][12] The strongest evidence points to a PQ plurality and likely government, but not necessarily a majority. [3][7][4] The CAQ’s exact seat result is unusually uncertain because dozens of ridings are close, and the party’s current seat count is far above its modeled outcome. [3][7][4] Certain external sources, such as Decision Desk HQ, Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, and Ballotpedia, concern U.S. elections or general news and do not provide Quebec CAQ seat forecasts. [13][14][15][16][17]
Sources (17)
- 1Coalition avenir Québec | 338Canada Quebec338canada.com
- 2Coalition avenir Québec | Qc125 Québecqc125.com
- 3The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker - by Éric Grenierthewrit.ca
- 4PQ projected to form Quebec government as key ridings remain toss-ups | Politicsca.headtopics.com
- 52026 provincial election: polling day is October 5electionsquebec.qc.ca
- 6Current and upcoming electionselectionsquebec.qc.ca
- 7PQ lead holds in divided race - by Éric Grenier - The Writthewrit.ca
- 82026 Quebec Election Polls and PQ Odds Explained | Prediction.comprediction.com
- 9CAQ 2026 Quebec Election Odds Fall to 14% | Prediction.comprediction.com
- 10Quebec general election: CAQ number of seats? - Compare Kalshi vs Polymarket Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 11Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?polymarket.com
- 12Élections provinciales de 2026: un scrutin aura lieu le 5 octobre – Élections Québecelectionsquebec.qc.ca
- 132026 Election Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 14https://votes-docs.decisiondeskhq.com/2026-forecast-methodologyvotes-docs.decisiondeskhq.com
- 15Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
- 16Election results, 2025: State legislative seats that changed party control - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 17Daily Brew: September 28, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 12 or more
📉 September 28, 2026: 69.0pp drop
Price decreased from 86.0% to 17.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the market price drop appears to be a rapid and significant decline in the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ)'s polling support and seat projections, widely reported by traditional news outlets and polling firms around September 27-28, 2026. New polls indicated CAQ support had fallen to 16-17%, with 338Canada projecting an average of only 6 seats, making the "12 or more" outcome highly improbable [1][2]. This collapse in support, translating to potential major seat losses, coincided directly with the date of the market movement [2][3][4]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver in the provided information.
Outcome: 34 or more
📉 September 26, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 28.0% to 17.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point drop was a significant decline in the Coalition Avenir Québec's (CAQ) projected electoral performance, as indicated by recent polls and expert forecasts. A Léger poll released on September 22 showed the CAQ's support falling to 20%, down from 24% earlier in the campaign [5]. This was reinforced by September 25–26 projections from 338Canada and CTV/Headtopics, which estimated the CAQ to win approximately 6 seats, with a range of 0–29, making the "34 or more" outcome highly improbable [1]. No evidence of social media activity acting as a catalyst for this price movement was found [6]. Social media was irrelevant to this market movement.
Outcome: 27 or more
📉 September 23, 2026: 26.0pp drop
Price decreased from 61.0% to 35.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the price movement was the publication of a Léger poll on September 22, which reported the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 20% support, a significant decline from 24% earlier in the campaign [5]. This poll, conducted September 18-21, prompted 338Canada to update its projection, showing the CAQ winning an average of only 6 seats with a 0–29 likely range, making the "27 or more" outcome highly improbable [1]. This traditional news announcement, indicating a sharp drop in support and projected seats for the CAQ, directly preceded and caused the market's 26.0 percentage point decline. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, as the provided sources do not establish it as a definitive catalyst for this specific price movement [7].
Outcome: 31 or more
📉 September 21, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 45.0% to 31.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 14.0 percentage point drop on September 21, 2026, was the release of new polling data indicating a significant decline in support for the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ). A Léger poll from the September 21-era projected the CAQ to win approximately 20 seats, well below the "31 or more" threshold, and reported their voter intentions had dropped to 20% [8][5][9]. This traditional news and data release coincided with the price move, directly influencing market sentiment regarding the CAQ's prospects. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
Outcome: 20 or more
📈 September 20, 2026: 77.0pp spike
Price increased from 4.0% to 81.0%
What happened: The provided web research did not identify a Quebec-specific social media or news catalyst for the 77.0 percentage point price spike on September 20, 2026 [10]. Projections around that date, such as 338Canada's September 25 estimate of 6 CAQ seats with a 0-29 range, would suggest a low probability for "20 or more" seats, rather than a significant increase [1]. Consequently, based on the available information, social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver or contributing accelerant for this particular market movement.
Sources (10)
- 1Coalition avenir Québec | 338Canada Quebec338canada.com
- 2Quebec votes 2026: New poll shows support for CAQ collapsing as PQ enters majority zone on 1st day of advance votingmontreal.citynews.ca
- 3Building backlash. CAQ drop. Democrats path.davidakin.substack.com
- 4338 Quebec Update: CAQ Slips, PQ Nears Majority Territory338canada.ca
- 5PQ inches toward majority territory in new Quebec pollmontrealgazette.com
- 62026 Election Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 7Quebec Voting Intentions: CAQ Falls to Third, PCQ Reaches 17%leger360.com
- 8The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker - by Éric Grenierthewrit.ca
- 92026 Quebec general electionen.wikipedia.org
- 10Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — Historical market archive | Orrery | Orreryorrery.me
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves based on the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the Quebec general election. A "YES" resolution occurs if the CAQ secures 27 or more seats out of the 127 National Assembly seats. Conversely, a "NO" resolution is triggered if the CAQ wins fewer than 27 seats. Trading for this market began on October 5th, and it will settle according to the official election results, with payouts occurring by October 5, 2027, at the latest.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 or more | $0.67 | $0.95 | 57% |
| 24 or more | $0.50 | $0.95 | 40% |
| 12 or more | $0.67 | $0.97 | 17% |
| 27 or more | $0.30 | $0.94 | 15% |
| 31 or more | $0.31 | $0.97 | 9% |
| 34 or more | $0.31 | $0.96 | 7% |
| 37 or more | $0.95 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 40 or more | $0.30 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 45 or more | $0.27 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 52 or more | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Current election modelling predicts a severe decline for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the 2026 Quebec general election, with 338Canada projecting 6 seats (range 0–29) and The Writ placing them well behind other parties [1]. As of September 27–28, 2026, prediction markets were bearish on the CAQ's chances, with Kalshi implying a 73% probability of at least 12 seats, Polymarket showing 25–29 seats at about 32%, and Parity indicating 30+ seats at roughly 41.5% [2]. Traders on Polymarket overwhelmingly expected the Parti Québécois (PQ) to win the most seats (73%) compared to the CAQ (13%) [3].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score78Good
Market integrity is low (66), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score49High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score72Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What are the final seat projections for the CAQ from key polling aggregators like Qc125 and The Writ heading into the October 5 election?
| CAQ Projected Seats | 7 (Qc125, September 24, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| CAQ Projected Vote Share | 21.2% +/- 3.0% (Qc125, September 24, 2026) [1] |
| Seats Needed for Majority | 64 [2][3] |
Recent projections indicate a challenging election for the CAQ. As of September 24, 2026, Qc125 estimated the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) to win 7 seats, with a likely range between 0 and 30 seats. This projection is based on a projected 21.2% vote share, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0% [1]. The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker, updated on September 23, 2026, confirmed that the CAQ had fallen back in the polls, though it did not specify an exact average seat projection for the party in that particular update [4]. The election is contested on a 127-seat map, requiring 64 seats to secure a majority [2][3].
The Writ's model previously showed stronger CAQ performance. The Writ's projection model utilizes 10,000 simulations to report average, leading, and 95% high/low outcome scenarios [4]. Prior to its September 23 update, The Writ had projected the CAQ to win an average of 29.2 seats on September 14, leading in 19 ridings, and a 21.5% projected vote share on September 21 [5][6]. However, the subsequent September 23 tracker reiterated a further weakening of the CAQ's position [4].
Sources (6)
- 1Coalition avenir Québec | Qc125 Québecqc125.com
- 22026 Quebec general election - Wikiwandwikiwand.com
- 3Quebec, Canada General election 2026 — Live Results & Map | ElectioMapelectiomap.com
- 4The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker - by Éric Grenierthewrit.ca
- 5PQ lead holds in divided race - by Éric Grenier - The Writthewrit.ca
- 6PQ remains favourite in Quebec election against divided oppositionthewrit.ca
7. How might the performance of CAQ leader François Legault in the final leaders' debates against PQ's Paul St-Pierre Plamondon impact voter intention before October 5?
| CAQ Leader 2026 Election | Christine Fréchette (as outgoing premier François Legault's replacement) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Final Leaders' Debate Date | September 23, 2026 [4][1] |
| Quebecers opposed to referendum | Approximately 70% [1][5][3] |
The premise suggesting a debate between François Legault and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is inaccurate. Christine Fréchette was identified as the CAQ leader for the 2026 election, with François Legault serving as the outgoing premier [1][2][3]. The final leaders' debate, a crucial televised event intended to influence undecided voters, took place between Fréchette and St-Pierre Plamondon on September 23, 2026, less than two weeks before the October 5 election [4][1].
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon consistently led voting-intention polls before the debate. Prior to this final confrontation, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon had maintained a consistent lead in voting-intention polls for several months and delivered a solid performance in the earlier TVA debate [2][6]. The final debate largely centered on the issue of sovereignty and the risk of a referendum. St-Pierre Plamondon championed independence as Quebec's future, while the CAQ and federalist parties countered by highlighting that approximately 70% of Quebecers do not desire a referendum [1][5][3].
Debate performance impact on voter intention is likely limited. Considering St-Pierre Plamondon's existing lead and the familiar nature of the sovereignty debate, a strong showing from him would likely solidify the Parti Québécois's lead and put pressure on CAQ candidates [1][2][3]. Conversely, a robust defense of the Legault government's record and a clear warning about a referendum from Fréchette could stabilize or slightly improve the CAQ's standing [1][2][3]. A significant shift in voter sentiment before the October 5 election is improbable without a major misstep [1][2][3]. Prediction market data, as of September 27, indicated a 73%–75% probability of the CAQ securing at least 12 seats [7][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1Dernier débat des chefs | Des airs de campagne référendairelapresse.ca
- 2Avantage St-Pierre Plamondon et Milliard | La Presselapresse.ca
- 3Débat des chefs de Noovo | Fréchette reconnaît des « erreurs », St-Pierre Plamondon encaisse des coupslapresse.ca
- 4Élections québécoises: le débat des chefs aura lieu le 23 septembre à Radio-Canada | Radio-Canadaici.radio-canada.ca
- 5Dernier débat des chefs | Des airs de campagne référendairelapresse.ca
- 6Face-à-face de TVA | Avantage St-Pierre Plamondon et Milliardlapresse.ca
- 7Quebec general election: CAQ number of seats? - Compare Kalshi vs Polymarket Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 8Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?polymarket.com
- 9Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?polymarket.com
- 10Quebec provincial polling results August 2026facebook.com
8. How does the regional vote concentration of the CAQ compare to the Parti Québécois, and which party has an advantage in converting votes to seats in the 2026 election?
| PQ Projected Seats (Sep 2026) | 63 (range 40–77) [1] |
|---|---|
| CAQ Projected Seats (Sep 2026) | 6 (range 0–29) [2][3][1] |
| Prediction Market CAQ Avg | Around 24 seats [4][5] |
The Parti Québécois currently holds a significant vote-to-seat advantage. As of September 25–27, 2026, 338Canada projects the Parti Québécois (PQ) to achieve 28.7% of the vote and 63 seats, with a range between 40 and 77 [1][3]. In contrast, the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) is projected to receive 21.2% of the vote (±2.9%) but only 6 seats, with a wider range of 0 to 29 [1][2]. This indicates a notably more efficient conversion of votes to seats for the PQ compared to the CAQ [1][2][3].
Regional support patterns are crucial for the parties' electoral efficiency. This efficiency gap is primarily due to the geographic distribution of support [6]. The CAQ's remaining support is concentrated in scattered suburban, exurban, and specific regional ridings, making its position vulnerable across much of Quebec [6]. Conversely, the PQ is projected to secure a broad array of ridings across eastern Quebec, Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, Gaspésie, Bas-Saint-Laurent, parts of Lanaudière/Mauricie, and several ridings in the Montreal area, with many listed as safe or likely seats for the PQ [6][7]. This represents a reversal from the 2022 election results, where the CAQ won 74 of 125 seats with 37.42% of the vote, while the PQ secured only 10 seats with 17.06% [8][9].
Prediction markets also suggest a low seat count for the CAQ. Data from Polymarket indicates an average of approximately 24 seats for the CAQ [4]. Additionally, a Kalshi-linked tracker on September 27, 2026, suggested a roughly 73% probability of the CAQ winning 12 or more seats [5]. It is worth noting that the listed resolution date for this tracker shows an inconsistency between the user's stated October 5, 2026, and the tracker text's October 5, 2027 [4][5].
Sources (9)
- 1338Canada Quebec | Synopsis Recherche poll, September 2026338canada.com
- 2Coalition avenir Québec | 338Canada Quebec338canada.com
- 3Parti Québécois | 338Canada Quebec338canada.com
- 4Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?polymarket.com
- 5Quebec general election: CAQ number of seats? - Compare Kalshi vs Polymarket Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6338Canada Quebec | All 127 districts338canada.com
- 7The 450 | 338Canada Quebec338canada.com
- 8Results of October 3, 2022 general electionelectionsquebec.qc.ca
- 9CAQ sails to victory in Quebec with largest majority...cbc.ca
9. What riding-level polling data is available for the 2026 Quebec election, particularly for toss-up ridings involving the CAQ and PQ?
| Conventional Riding Polling Availability | Not widely available for 2026 Quebec election (September 26, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] |
|---|---|
| Primary Riding Data Source | Vote-Scope model-based projections (September 26, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] |
| Richmond Riding Projection | PQ 30.7%, CAQ 23.4% (PQ win probability 81%) [2][3][6] |
Conventional riding-level polling data for the 2026 Quebec election is not widely available. Particularly for toss-up ridings involving the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and the Parti Québécois (PQ), conventional constituency polling is not a prevalent source. As of September 26, 2026, Vote-Scope serves as the main publicly discoverable source, offering model-based projections rather than traditional riding-level polls [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. A province-wide CTV-reported poll from August 28, 2026, showed a close provincial race but did not include riding-level data [8].
Vote-Scope projects several CAQ–PQ toss-up ridings with specific probabilities. Richmond is projected to lean Parti Québécois with 30.7% of the vote compared to the CAQ's 23.4%, assigning the PQ an 81% win probability [2][3][6]. Similarly, Saint-François also leans PQ, with projections showing 28.8% for the PQ and 21.6% for the CAQ, resulting in an 80% PQ win probability [2][3][6]. Drummond–Bois-Francs reflects a tighter race, with the PQ at 30.1% and the CAQ at 27.7%, giving the PQ a 57% probability of winning [2][3][6]. Conversely, La Prairie is projected as a CAQ victory at 31.0% against the PQ's 24.2%, with a 63% probability for the CAQ [1].
Other sources offer model-based projections or qualitative analysis, not conventional polls. PoliWave also provides model-based projections, including a province-wide seat forecast and a riding projection page; however, the search extract does not expose a complete, date-consistent table of CAQ–PQ toss-up ridings from this source [7][9][10]. A September 2026 election analysis provides qualitative classifications for ridings, but these are not published constituency poll toplines [11]. Furthermore, expert-curated sources such as DDHQ, AP Elections, NASS, FEC, UF Election Lab, MIT Election Data Lab, Dave Leip’s Atlas, and Ballotpedia produced no relevant Quebec provincial riding-level polling in the retrieved results [12][13].
Sources (13)
- 1La Prairie — Quebec riding projectionvote-scope.com
- 2Richmond — Quebec riding projectionvote-scope.com
- 3Saint-François — Quebec riding projection — Vote-Scopevote-scope.com
- 4Lévis — Quebec riding projection — Vote-Scopevote-scope.com
- 5Montmorency — Quebec riding projection — Vote-Scopevote-scope.com
- 6Drummond–Bois-Francs — Quebec riding projection — Vote-Scopevote-scope.com
- 7Quebec Election Projections, Every Riding, Latest Forecast | PoliWavepoliwave.com
- 8Quebec election: PQ and CAQ in near dead heatvancouverisland.ctvnews.ca
- 9QC Election Projection & Seat Forecastpoliwave.com
- 10Quebec Election Projection Map | PoliWavepoliwave.com
- 11Quebec election 2026: Where the parties stand on taxes and...publisherpt.substack.com
- 122026 Election Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 13Canada Election Results | DDHQdecisiondeskhq.com
10. How do prediction market odds on exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket for the CAQ's seat count correlate with the projections from polling models throughout September 2026?
| Kalshi CAQ 12+ Seats Probability | 73% (September 27) [1] |
|---|---|
| The Writ Average Seats | 29.2 (September 14) [2] |
| 338Canada Seat Projection | 6 (September 25) [3] |
General consensus emerged on a weakening outlook for CAQ. Prediction market odds and polling model projections for the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) in September 2026 largely converged on the view that CAQ was no longer the likely governing party, though specific estimates varied significantly [1][4][5][6][2][7][3]. This directional agreement highlighted a declining market perception for the party, with separate winner markets showing CAQ's win odds dropping from 35% to 23% by September 13 [8].
Prediction markets showed varied estimates for CAQ's seat count. They offered diverse insights into the CAQ's electoral prospects. As of September 27, Kalshi's binary threshold market indicated a 73% probability that CAQ would secure at least 12 seats [1]. On the same date, Polymarket's seat-band market displayed a fragmented distribution, with significant allocations for under 5 seats (26.9%), 15–19 seats (19.7%), 20–24 seats (18%), and 30+ seats (17%) [5]. Another snapshot from Polymarket reported 25–29 seats at 32%, illustrating the variability across platforms and reporting periods [5].
Polling models offered a diverse range of CAQ seat projections. They presented a broader spectrum of CAQ seat count projections for September. The Writ's projections estimated CAQ in the roughly 30-seat range, with an average of 30.6 seats on September 8 and 29.2 seats on September 14, while also noting a loss of momentum by September 23 [9][2][6]. The Writ further indicated a decline in CAQ's vote share, reporting 22.1% on September 14 and 21.5% on September 21 [2][7]. In contrast, 338Canada's September 25 projection was more pessimistic, predicting 6 seats (within a 0–29 range) and 21.2% ± 2.9% support [3]. Other September polls showed CAQ support ranging from 23% to 29% [10][11].
Sources (11)
- 1Quebec general election: CAQ number of seats? - Compare Kalshi vs Polymarket Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2PQ lead holds in divided race - by Éric Grenier - The Writthewrit.ca
- 3Coalition avenir Québec | 338Canada Quebec338canada.com
- 4Eleições gerais de Quebec: CAQ # Lugares?polymarket.com
- 5Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?polymarket.com
- 6The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker - by Éric Grenierthewrit.ca
- 7PQ remains favourite in Quebec election against divided oppositionthewrit.ca
- 8CAQ 2026 Quebec Election Odds Drop 12 Pointspredictionhunt.com
- 9Liberals widen federal lead, PQ holds in Quebecthewrit.ca
- 10Mainstreet Research Poll Results - September 2026poliwave.com
- 11Pallas Data Poll Results - September 2026 | Quebec Pollingpoliwave.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, will elect 127 National Assembly members, with 64 seats required for a majority [1][2]. The campaign commenced on August 27, 2026 [1]. Current projections indicate challenges for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ): 338Canada projects 6 seats (range 0–29) as of September 25, 2026, and The Writ's September 21 model describes the CAQ as stalling below the 64-seat majority threshold [3][4]. Bullish catalysts for CAQ seat-market pricing include a late polling rebound, favorable debate performance, or an unexpectedly favorable riding-level turnout pattern [4][3]. Bearish catalysts include continued Parti Québécois momentum, Conservative gains, or additional polling showing the CAQ near its projected low seat count [4][3]. Quebec polls close at 20:00 Eastern on October 5, with preliminary results expected to move contracts sharply [5][4][3].
A dense cluster of international elections immediately surrounds October 5: Latvia's parliament votes October 3; Brazil's presidency and legislature, alongside Bosnia and Herzegovina's presidency and House, vote October 4; Quebec votes October 5 [6][7][8]. Later international events include the Czech Senate, beginning October 9; Israel's Knesset, October 27; and Cabo Verde's presidential election, tentatively October 31 [7][8]. The major U.S. general-election catalyst is November 3, 2026, when all 435 House districts, 33 Senate seats, and numerous state and local contests are scheduled [9][10][11][12]. DDHQ's September forecasts showed Democrats favored, with House control at 70% Democratic on September 18 and Senate control at 54% Democratic on September 25 [13][14]. Bullish U.S. market catalysts include improving Democratic control probabilities or favorable late polling; bearish catalysts include Republican gains in toss-ups or adverse candidate or issue news [15].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 05, 2027
- Closes: October 05, 2027
Sources (15)
- 12026 Quebec general electionen.wikipedia.org
- 2Quebec, Canada General election 2026 — Live Results & Map | ElectioMapelectiomap.com
- 3Coalition avenir Québec | 338Canada Quebec338canada.com
- 4The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker - by Éric Grenierthewrit.ca
- 52026 provincial general election results – Élections Québecelectionsquebec.qc.ca
- 62026 Worldwide Elections Calendar Presented by the International School of Politics at the Leadership Instituteleadershipinstitute.org
- 7IFES Election Guide | Electionselectionguide.org
- 8IFES Election Guideelectionguide.org
- 9Elections Ballotpedia is covering in October 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 102026 election and voting dates - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 11Elections calendar - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 12Statewide elections calendar - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 132026 Election Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 142026 U.S. Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 15Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
