Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for voter turnout "Above 195K" (20.0% model vs 0.0% market). This divergence is driven by the most recent 2024 general election turnout for Hawaii's 2nd District significantly exceeding the market's upper bracket.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market's price chart is completely static, showing a total absence of trading activity. The probability has remained fixed at its opening price of 83.0%. With no price fluctuations, there are no significant movements, spikes, or drops to analyze or correlate with news about the candidates or the expected dynamics of the race. The overall trend is flat, simply reflecting the market's inactivity since its inception.
The lack of activity is further confirmed by a total traded volume of zero contracts. This indicates that no participants have engaged with the market, and therefore the current price does not reflect any collective conviction or informed sentiment. Without any trading history, there are no established support or resistance levels; the 83.0% mark is merely an untested opening price. The chart suggests the market is currently illiquid and does not yet represent a meaningful forecast from traders.
  • The 2024 general election turnout significantly exceeded the market's upper bracket.
  • New automatic voter registration law not expected to impact 2026 turnout.
  • Hawaii's 2nd District 2022 turnout fell within current market projections.
  • Jill Tokuda's campaign appears to maintain a substantial financial advantage.
  • Historical data shows no clear correlation between victory margin and turnout.
  • Incumbent Jill Tokuda is unopposed in the upcoming primary election.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 195K 0.0% 20.0% The most recent 2024 general election turnout was 250,156 total ballots cast.
Above 200K 0.0% 20.0% The most recent 2024 general election turnout was 250,156 total ballots cast.
Above 210K 0.0% 20.0% The most recent 2024 general election turnout was 250,156 total ballots cast.
Above 220K 0.0% 20.0% The most recent 2024 general election turnout was 250,156 total ballots cast.
Above 230K 0.0% 20.0% The most recent 2024 general election turnout was 250,156 total ballots cast.

Current Context

Democrats are strongly favored to win Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District in 2026. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, following the primary on August 8, 2026, with a filing deadline of June 2, 2026 [1][2]. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda is unopposed in her primary and is expected to face Republican Brenton Awa, the presumed nominee [3][4][5]. Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District is rated Solid D by forecasters and has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 [1][2][4]. Prediction markets reflect this strong Democratic leaning, with Polymarket showing Democrats at a 92% probability of winning HI-02 [6].
Incumbent Jill Tokuda holds a significant financial advantage over her Republican challenger. As of Q1 2026, Representative Tokuda's campaign had raised $193,000 and reported $600,000 in cash on hand [3]. In contrast, Brenton Awa's campaign raised $13,500 and had $23,000 cash on hand [3]. This substantial financial disparity highlights the incumbent's strong position.
New legislation aims to increase voter turnout after a historically low election. Voter participation has been a notable concern in Hawaii, with the 2024 primary election experiencing its lowest turnout in 65 years, at 32.1% [7]. However, a new automatic voter registration bill was passed on May 7, 2026, which could impact future turnout figures for the 2026 elections [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Hawaii HI-02 House: 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  2. 2Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Incumbents Lead The Money Race For Congress. Will Outside Groups Wade In? - Honolulu Civil Beatcivilbeat.org
  4. 42026 United States House of Representatives elections in Hawaiien.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 (August 8 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6HI-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  7. 7Hawaii Legislature passes bills for automatic voter registration, native homestead rightscourthousenews.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "Above 220K" market, a "Yes" resolution occurs if the Hawaii 02 House General Election's officially certified total vote count exceeds 220,000; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome is verified by the relevant election commission's official results, including all certified ballots, and the market closes upon certification or by November 3, 2027. If the election is postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to "No."

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 195K $0.91 $0.17 0%
Above 200K $0.77 $0.31 0%
Above 210K $0.64 $0.44 0%
Above 220K $0.50 $0.58 0%
Above 230K $0.37 $0.71 0%

Market Discussion

No specific voter turnout figures or detailed pre-general election discussion have been identified for the Hawaii 02 House General Election, scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1]. The district is rated Solid Democratic with a D+12 Cook PVI, and the incumbent won the 2024 general election by 66.5% [1]. These factors, alongside Polymarket odds showing a 90-92% chance of a Democratic win, indicate that the race is widely considered non-competitive [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Hawaii HI-02 House: 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 73 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score73Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
58Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

1 contract · 12 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 200K58
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract · 12 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 200K—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
80Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 12 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 200K80
Clear · low confidence

Settles on a clear result. Verify the settlement source and resolution date.

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Unclear
Trade quality
31High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 40 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 5.5c slippage (~11% of a 48.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 27.4c slippage (~56% of a 48.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

12 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 200K40Market scoreLiquidity58Move quality–Rule clarity80
Why 40
Liquidity
58 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
80 · Clear · low confidence

Settles on a clear result. Verify the settlement source and resolution date.

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Unclear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 25, 2026

5. How is the implementation of Hawaii's new automatic voter registration law expected to impact registration figures ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election?

AVR Law Effective DateJanuary 1, 2027 [1]
SB 2239 Passage DateMay 6, 2026 [1]
National AVR Registration Increase9-94% [2]
Hawaii's new automatic voter registration will not affect 2026 figures. Hawaii's newly enacted automatic voter registration (AVR) law is not expected to influence voter registration numbers for the upcoming November 3, 2026 general election. This is primarily because the law's effective date is January 1, 2027, which falls after the 2026 election cycle [1].
The AVR legislation establishes an opt-out system for future elections. Senate Bill 2239, which outlines the new AVR system, passed the Senate 24-1 and the House 40-11 on May 6, 2026, before being sent to Governor Green [1]. This legislation will convert the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) to an opt-out system for voter registration, which also includes automatic address updates. However, these system changes will not be active for the 2026 election due to the law's post-election effective date [1].
National AVR trends will not apply to Hawaii's 2026 election. While automatic voter registration has been shown nationally to increase registrations significantly, ranging from 9% to 94% in various states, this potential impact will not materialize in Hawaii for the 2026 election [2]. The Department of Motor Vehicles had previously raised concerns about the necessary IT infrastructure, training, and funding required for the new system's implementation [1]. Currently, there are no specific projections available regarding Hawaii's voter rolls for 2026 [3], and same-day registration is already an available option for voters [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Hawaii Legislature passes bills for automatic voter registration, native homestead rights | Courthouse News Servicecourthousenews.com
  2. 2AVR Impact on State Voter Registration | Brennan Center for Justicebrennancenter.org
  3. 3Office of Elections | Hawaii Voters to Receive Voter Registration Notices Ahead of 2026 Electionselections.hawaii.gov
  4. 4Office of Elections | Registration and Turnout Statisticselections.hawaii.gov

6. How does the official voter turnout in Hawaii's 2nd District for the 2022 and 2024 general elections compare to the current market's brackets of 195K to 230K?

2022 HI-02 Total Ballots Cast206,411 [1][2]
2024 HI-02 Total Ballots Cast250,156 [3][4]
2024 Turnout vs. Market BracketExceeded 195K-230K bracket by 20K [3][4]
Hawaii's 2nd District 2022 turnout fell within market projections. In the 2022 general election, Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District recorded 206,411 total ballots cast [1][2]. This figure included 128,407 votes for Jill Tokuda, 72,874 for Joseph Akana, and 5,130 for Michelle Tippens [1][2]. The 2022 turnout of 206,000 was within the projected market bracket of 195,000 to 230,000 for the district [1]. Statewide turnout in 2022 reached 419,363 ballots, representing a 48.7% participation rate [5].
2024 election turnout in District 2 significantly surpassed market expectations. Voter turnout for Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District in the 2024 general election increased substantially, reaching 250,156 total ballots cast [3][4]. This turnout figure exceeded the upper limit of the 195,000 to 230,000 market bracket by 20,000 [3][4]. In the 2024 election, Jill Tokuda received 166,251 votes, Steven Bond 75,471, Eli Toman 4,497, and Thomas Meyer 3,937 [3][4]. Statewide turnout in 2024 reached 522,236 ballots, indicating a 60.7% participation rate [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 22022 Election Results for Hawaii -- RightDataUSA.comrightdatausa.com
  3. 3Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 42024 Election Results for Hawaii -- RightDataUSA.comrightdatausa.com
  5. 5https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/databook/db2022/section08.pdffiles.hawaii.gov
  6. 6Hawaii 2024 General Election Turnout - ArcGIS Experience Builderexperience.arcgis.com
  7. 72024 Presidential General Election Results - Hawaiiuselectionatlas.org

7. How do the get-out-the-vote (GOTV) resources and strategies of Jill Tokuda's and Brenton Awa's campaigns compare for the 2026 election cycle?

Tokuda Cash on Hand$502,261 (as of December 31, 2025) [1][2]
Awa Cash on Hand$46,679 (as of December 31, 2025) [1][2]
Tokuda Q1 2026 Fundraising$193,000 [1][2]
Jill Tokuda's campaign maintains a substantial financial advantage over Brenton Awa's. As of December 31, 2025, Tokuda's campaign reported $502,261 cash on hand, significantly more than Awa's $46,679 [1][2]. This financial disparity continued into the first quarter of 2026, when Tokuda raised $193,000, dwarfing Awa's $13,500 in contributions [1][2]. Tokuda's fundraising efforts have also featured warnings regarding the influence of GOP dark money [2].
Direct get-out-the-vote strategies are not explicitly detailed for either campaign. However, Brenton Awa's campaign has indicated plans to introduce legislation in 2026 aimed at improving election day access [3]. This initiative stems from his personal experience with six-hour waiting lines during the 2024 election cycle [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Incumbents Lead The Money Race For Congress. Will Outside Groups Wade In? - Honolulu Civil Beatcivilbeat.org
  3. 3Meet Brenton Awa | Congress 2026 | Hawaii’s Home Teamvotebrentonawa.com

8. What historical, precinct-level voter turnout data is available from the Hawaii Office of Elections for the 2020, 2022, and 2024 general elections in HI-02?

2024 Total Ballots Cast (Statewide)522,236 [1][2]
2024 Registered Voters (Statewide)860,868 [1][2]
2024 Turnout Percentage (Statewide)60.7% [1][2]
The Hawaii Office of Elections provides historical, precinct-level voter turnout data for HI-02 [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. This information, covering the 2020, 2022, and 2024 general elections, is accessible via statewide precinct PDFs on the official site. These documents detail registered voters and mail/in-person turnout percentages for each precinct. Precincts specific to HI-02 are identified as U.S. REP=II, and a dedicated precinct-district mapping table confirms their composition [9].
Hawaii's 2024 general election saw 60.7% statewide voter turnout [1][2]. This figure resulted from 522,236 ballots cast by 860,868 registered voters across the state [1][2].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Hawaii 2024 General Election Turnout - ArcGIS Experience Builderexperience.arcgis.com
  2. 22024 Presidential General Election Results - Hawaiiuselectionatlas.org
  3. 3Office of Elections | 2020 General Electionelections.hawaii.gov
  4. 4https://elections.hawaii.gov/wp-content/results/precinct.pdfelections.hawaii.gov
  5. 5Office of Elections | 2022 General Electionelections.hawaii.gov
  6. 6https://elections.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/Statewide-Precinct-Report-2024-November-5th-General-OFFICIAL-11-5-2024-23-41-27-PM.pdfelections.hawaii.gov
  7. 7Office of Elections | 2024 General Electionelections.hawaii.gov
  8. 8Office of Elections | Resultselections.hawaii.gov
  9. 9Office of Elections | Districts and Precinctselections.hawaii.gov

9. What is the historical correlation between the margin of victory in Hawaii's 2nd District and total voter turnout in general elections from 2016 to 2024?

Highest Total Votes272,102 (2020) [1]
Lowest Total VotesApproximately 198,121 (2018) [2]
Highest Margin of Victory62.4 percentage points (2016) [3][4]
Historical data shows no clear correlation between victory margin and voter turnout. Based on the provided general election data for Hawaii's 2nd District from 2016 to 2024, no consistent positive or negative relationship is evident between the margin of victory and total voter turnout [3][2][1][5][6][7]. Over this period, total voter turnout fluctuated, ranging from approximately 198,121 in 2018 [2] to its highest at 272,102 in 2020 [1]. Similarly, the margin of victory varied considerably, from a high of 62.4 percentage points in 2016 [3][4] to a low of 27.0 percentage points in 2022 [6][5].
Each election year presented distinct voter turnout and victory margin figures. In 2016, the district recorded 210,516 total votes, with the margin of victory standing at 62.4 percentage points [3][4]. The 2018 election saw approximately 198,121 total votes and a margin of 54.8 percentage points [2]. For the 2020 election, total votes increased to 272,102, alongside a margin of 32.1 percentage points [1]. The 2022 election reported total votes ranging from 205,558 to 206,411, with a margin of 27.0 percentage points [6][5]. Most recently, the 2024 election generated 250,156 total votes and a margin of 36.3 percentage points [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 12020 United States House of Representatives elections in Hawaiien.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 42016 United States House of Representatives elections in Hawaiien.wikipedia.org
  5. 52022 Election Results for Hawaii -- RightDataUSA.comrightdatausa.com
  6. 6Hawaii's 2nd congressional districten.wikipedia.org
  7. 72024 Election Results for Hawaii -- RightDataUSA.comrightdatausa.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

While incumbent Jill Tokuda (D) is unopposed in the primary [1][2] and Polymarket odds as of early 2026 indicate a Democratic win at 90-91% [3][4], potential shifts could emerge. The district's D+12 Cook PVI and Tokuda's 2024 results, showing her with 66.5% of the vote against the GOP's 30.2% [5][6], highlight the Democratic advantage. However, despite Tokuda's ~$600k cash-on-hand compared to Brenton Awa's (GOP) lower figures, the formation of a Republican super PAC is reported [7], which could influence the financial landscape of the race.
Legislative changes in Hawaii also present potential catalysts for the election outcome. The Hawaii Legislature passed bills for automatic voter registration [8], which may boost turnout [8]. Furthermore, Hawaii is pushing bills aimed at limiting campaign finance, in response to Citizens United [9], and banning prediction markets [10][11]. A bill specifically limiting mainland campaign activity faces likely passage [9], which could alter campaign strategies and financial flows.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (11)
  1. 1Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 (August 8 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3HI-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketbase.polymarket.com
  4. 4HI-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5Hawaii HI-02 House: 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  6. 6Hawaii's 2nd congressional districten.wikipedia.org
  7. 7Incumbents Lead The Money Race For Congress. Will Outside Groups Wade In? - Honolulu Civil Beatcivilbeat.org
  8. 8Hawaii Legislature passes bills for automatic voter registration, native homestead rightscourthousenews.com
  9. 9Bill limiting mainland campaign activity faces likely passagestaradvertiser.com
  10. 10Hawaii First State to Move Bill to Ban Prediction Marketssbcamericas.com
  11. 11States vs. Prediction Markets: Regulatory Battles | MultiStatemultistate.us