HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percent
Short Answer
Brenton Awa is likely to receive at least 30% of the vote in the HI-02 House election, despite model estimates consistently placing his expected vote percentage in the upper 20s to low 30s. The market prices this outcome at 80%, diverging from the model's 64.6% as incumbent Jill Tokuda holds a significant advantage.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market has not moved. The price has remained static at its initial listing of 18.0% due to a complete absence of trading activity. With zero contracts traded, the price does not reflect any market sentiment or reaction to external events. It is a placeholder quote in an illiquid market.
While related prediction markets price Brenton Awa's probability of winning HI-02 between 4% and 7%, this contract on his specific vote percentage has attracted no participation. The flat price chart indicates the market is dormant, with no bids or asks placed to form a consensus price.
- Brenton Awa reaching at least 30% vote share appears overvalued by current market.
- Jill Tokuda's financial advantage and significant endorsements weigh on Awa's prospects.
- Reaching Brenton Awa vote shares above 33% is consistently improbable per model estimates.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 34% | 18.0% | 48.8% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| At least 28% | 91.0% | 82.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| At least 32% | 69.0% | 53.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| At least 30% | 80.0% | 64.6% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| At least 38% | 15.0% | 17.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
Brenton Awa is a substantial underdog in the HI-02 general election. Prediction markets assign him a 4% to 7% probability of winning against incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda [1][2][3][4][5][6]. VoteHub estimates Awa's final vote share at 32.7% [1]. The market pricing for Awa's vote percentage indicates an 87% probability of achieving at least 26%, 54% for at least 28%, 54% for at least 30%, and 33% for at least 32% [7]. The general election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with market resolutions typically occurring on November 4 [7][8].
Recent campaign events outline candidate platforms and Awa's primary showing. Through October 9, developments included an October 8 Civil Beat forum and an October 9 Hawaii News Now interview involving both candidates [9][10][11][12][8]. Awa has emphasized a one-term pledge, housing affordability, military housing construction, changing the Jones Act, Native Hawaiian rights, and leveraging his Republican affiliation [9][11][12][8]. Tokuda has focused on defending her record, cross-party collaboration, and Native Hawaiian protections [12]. In the Republican primary, Awa secured the nomination with approximately 86.1% to 87.7% of the vote across cited county summaries, with blank votes ranging from 8.0% to 8.8% [13][14][15]. These primary results do not directly project November general-election vote percentages [13][14][15].
Sources (15)
- 1Hawaii's 2nd House District Electionvotehub.com
- 2November 3, 2026: HI-02 House winner Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 3HI-02 House Election Winnerpolymarket.com
- 4Which party wins Hawaii's 2nd district? | versusversusapp.com
- 5HI-02 House Election Winner 2026 Odds | Polymarket & Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
- 62026 Hawaii House Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 7HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percent Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 8Maui mayor, state Sen. Awa join Spotlight Now ahead of general election | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
- 9Awa seeks one term in Congress: ‘I don’t care’ about world policies | Election 2026 | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
- 10Awa and Tokuda face off in online forum | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
- 112nd District candidates agree: military should provide more housing in Hawaii | Election 2026 | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
- 12U.S. Rep. Jill Tokuda, Sen. Brenton Awa debate Native Hawaiian programs in Congressional forum | Politics | kitv.comkitv.com
- 13Count_ThreeColumnSummaryResults_Newspaperelections.hawaii.gov
- 14Count_ThreeColumnSummaryResults_Newspaperelections.hawaii.gov
- 15Count_ThreeColumnSummaryResults_Newspaperelections.hawaii.gov
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 October 09, 2026: 58.0pp drop
Price decreased from 73.0% to 15.0%
Outcome: At least 38%
What happened: The existence of a "Brenton Awa vote percent: At least 38%" contract on the market and a 58.0 percentage point price drop on October 9, 2026, could not be verified in the provided market data, suggesting the requested event may be unconfirmed or malformed [1]. Therefore, a primary driver for this specific market movement cannot be identified. Independent forecasts updated October 9, 2026, consistently projected Awa's vote share well below 38%, with his opponent Jill Tokuda having a 99% win probability, indicating a low price for such an outcome, but not a sudden 58-point drop [2][3][4]. While news coverage from October 6-9 detailed candidate forums and Awa's policy positions, no specific social media activity or traditional news event was found to cause such a dramatic price shift [5][6][7][8]. Given the unverified nature of the market event, social media appears irrelevant.
Sources (8)
- 1HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percent Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 22026 Hawaii US House 2 General Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 3HI-02 House race 2026: Tokuda >99 in 100 | Tokuda vs. Awa forecast & polls — Call the Mapcallthemap.com
- 4Hawaii 2nd District (HI-2) 2026 Polls — Tokuda vs Awa — PoliAggpoliagg.com
- 5Awa and Tokuda face off in online forum | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
- 6Awa seeks one term in Congress: ‘I don’t care’ about world policies | Election 2026 | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
- 7U.S. Rep. Jill Tokuda, Sen. Brenton Awa debate Native Hawaiian programs in Congressional forum | Politics | kitv.comkitv.com
- 8Tokuda, Awa split on potential Trump impeachment in race for 2nd District | Election 2026 | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This prediction market, "HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percent," refers to Brenton Awa's final vote percentage in the HI-02 House election.
A YES resolution occurs if Brenton Awa's final vote percentage is 34% or higher. A NO resolution occurs if his final vote percentage is less than 34%. The event date is November 4, 12:00 AM EST, and the maximum payout date is November 3, 2027. No special settlement conditions beyond the reported vote percentage are explicitly stated in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 28% | $0.98 | $0.10 | 91% |
| At least 30% | $0.87 | $0.20 | 80% |
| At least 36% | $0.27 | $0.81 | 71% |
| At least 32% | $0.70 | $0.39 | 69% |
| At least 42% | $0.90 | $0.93 | 38% |
| At least 40% | $0.08 | $0.93 | 25% |
| At least 34% | $0.48 | $0.62 | 18% |
| At least 38% | $0.15 | $0.93 | 15% |
| At least 24% | $0.99 | $0.05 | 0% |
| At least 26% | $1.00 | $0.06 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders believe Brenton Awa has a 69% chance of securing at least 32% of the vote, but significantly lower probabilities for higher thresholds (18% for 34%, 27% for 36%). This outlook is likely influenced by opponent Jill Tokuda's substantial fundraising advantage, having raised over six times more than Awa. The market consensus suggests Awa's final vote percentage is likely to fall in the low 30s, between 32% and 34%.
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score93Strong
Trade quality20% of score42High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score83Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What are the key indicators of Jill Tokuda's incumbency advantage in the HI-02 2026 race, such as fundraising totals and local media coverage?
| Total Receipts | $820,678.15 (through July 19, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Fundraising Advantage | More than 7-to-1 (Tokuda vs. Awa) [2] |
| Cash-on-Hand | Approximately $570,000 [3] |
Jill Tokuda demonstrates a significant financial advantage in the HI-02 2026 race. Her campaign's total receipts reached $820,678.15 through July 19, 2026, indicating robust fundraising efforts [1]. This includes $634,721.65 from individuals and $183,349 from other committees, reflecting a broad financial base with approximately 77% from individuals and 22% from PACs/committees [1][4]. Tokuda maintains more than a 7-to-1 fundraising advantage over Brenton Awa, with roughly $801,000 compared to Awa's $122,000, and holds approximately $570,000 in cash-on-hand [2][3].
Local media coverage and strategic campaign decisions bolster Tokuda's incumbent status. Local media outlets consistently portray Tokuda as the established incumbent while positioning Awa as the challenger. In the final month of the campaign, Hawaii News Now featured Tokuda in multiple stories and interviews discussing various issues [5][6][7][8]. Tokuda strategically declined a televised debate, choosing instead to participate solely in the Civil Beat forum, which was described as her only direct face-off, a common tactic for incumbents to manage exposure [7]. Brenton Awa himself acknowledged the challenging odds in a district that has historically not elected a Republican [5].
Sources (8)
- 1TOKUDA, JILL NAOMI - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
- 2Hawaii District 02 House race, 2026 · U.S. Wealth Watcheruswealthwatcher.com
- 3FEC Disclosure Form 3 for Tokuda for Hawaiidocquery.fec.gov
- 4Jill Naomi Tokuda | 2026 HI House Candidate | ThePolitibasethepolitibase.com
- 5Awa seeks one term in Congress: ‘I don’t care’ about world policies | Election 2026 | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
- 6Tokuda, Awa split on potential Trump impeachment in race for 2nd District | Election 2026 | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
- 7Awa and Tokuda face off in online forum | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
- 82nd District candidates agree: military should provide more housing in Hawaii | Election 2026 | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
7. How do Brenton Awa's and Jill Tokuda's policy platforms compare on key local issues for HI-02, such as the Jones Act, housing, and cost of living?
| Jones Act Stance | Brenton Awa advocates for changes; Jill Tokuda defends its maintenance [1] |
|---|---|
| Housing Policy Shared Goals | Both support using military land/funding for housing, tax changes for owner-occupants, and restrictions on corporate home ownership [2] |
| Cost of Living Proposals | Both propose budget/tax changes for energy, food, and middle-class tax relief [2] |
Brenton Awa and Jill Tokuda present contrasting views on the Jones Act's economic impact and future. Awa advocates for modifying the Jones Act to alleviate Hawaii's affordability challenges, while Tokuda supports its current structure, highlighting its role in ensuring consistent food shipping and sustaining maritime employment [1]. The economic implications of the Jones Act are a key area of disagreement; critics contend that its requirements for U.S.-built ships and American crews contribute to elevated shipping costs in Hawaii, whereas proponents argue it guarantees stable supply-chain services and supports domestic maritime jobs [3].
On housing, both candidates align on key strategies, but differ in specific approaches. Awa and Tokuda concur on several strategies, including utilizing military land and funding for increased construction, adjusting taxes to favor owner-occupants, and restricting corporate home ownership [2]. However, their specific methods diverge. Tokuda proposes that the military construct housing beyond the immediate needs of service members to accommodate civilian base workers, whereas Awa prioritizes limiting military housing allowances and leveraging potential access to a Republican administration [2].
Candidates propose distinct approaches to reduce Hawaii's overall cost of living. Addressing the broader cost of living, both Awa and Tokuda suggest budget or tax reforms aimed at reducing energy and food expenses and easing the middle-class tax burden [2]. Awa has also introduced unconventional ideas, such as making car insurance optional [4]. Tokuda, conversely, frames her affordability solutions within the context of broader federal initiatives [2].
Sources (4)
- 1Awa and Tokuda face off in online forum | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
- 22nd District candidates agree: military should provide more...hawaiinewsnow.com
- 3Covering the Cost: The cost of shipping, Jones Act in Hawaiihawaiinewsnow.com
- 4Awa seeks one term in Congress: ‘I don’t care’ about world policies | Election 2026 | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
8. What potential national political shifts or key endorsements could significantly alter Brenton Awa's vote share forecast in HI-02 ahead of the November 2026 election?
| Awa Projected Vote Share | 27% (as of Oct 9, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Tokuda Projected Vote Share | 73% (as of Oct 9, 2026) [1] |
| Awa Chance (>=26% vote) | 82%-87% (prediction markets) [2][3] |
Brenton Awa has rejected external support, while Jill Tokuda has significant endorsements. Awa has not secured major endorsements and has explicitly rejected outside support, including from national PACs, to cultivate an independent image [4][5][6]. Despite his stance, reports indicate potential "dark money" super PAC activity in the district [5]. In contrast, incumbent Jill Tokuda has garnered significant endorsements from key unions and organizations such as the Hawaii State Teachers Association (HSTA), American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), and the University of Hawaii Professional Assembly (UHPA) [4][7][8][9].
Current projections indicate a solid lead for Tokuda, limiting Awa's vote share. As of October 9, 2026, the HI-02 House election is classified as a "Solid Democratic" race [1]. Jill Tokuda is projected to win approximately 73% of the vote, compared to Brenton Awa's estimated 27% [1]. Prediction markets further indicate an 82%–87% probability that Brenton Awa will receive at least 26% of the vote [2][3]. However, the probabilities decrease for higher vote share thresholds, such as 30% or 32% [2][3].
Sources (9)
- 12026 Hawaii 2nd District House Forecast | Election Odds &...pollsmax.com
- 2HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percent Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 3HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percent - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 42026 United States House of Representatives elections in...en.wikipedia.org
- 5Dark Money Looms Over This Hawaiʻi Congressional Racecivilbeat.org
- 6Awa seeks one term in Congress: 'I don't care' about world...hawaiinewsnow.com
- 7Announcing UHPA's 2026 General Election Endorsements...uhpa.org
- 8HSTA strongly recommends Jill Tokuda for re-election to...hsta.org
- 9AFGE union endorses Tokuda and Case for re-election to...mauinow.com
9. What public polling data, if any, is available for the 2026 Hawaii 2nd congressional district race between Jill Tokuda and Brenton Awa?
| Public Polling Data for HI-02 | None (as of October 9, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Jill Tokuda Win Probability (Pollsmax) | 99.9% [1] |
| Brenton Awa Vote Share Contract Implied Probability | 82% (for at least 26% vote share) [2][3] |
Public polling data for the 2026 Hawaii 2nd District race is unavailable. As of October 9, 2026, there is no public polling data available for the 2026 Hawaii 2nd congressional district general election race between Jill Tokuda and Brenton Awa [1]. Sources like Pollsmax confirm the absence of public polls, showing no polling average or included polls for the HI-02 general election [1]. While public forecasts and market data exist, these are based on models, ratings, or prediction markets, rather than direct candidate surveys [1][4][2].
Public forecasts strongly favor Jill Tokuda, despite the absence of direct polling. Despite the lack of direct polling, available public forecasts strongly favor Jill Tokuda. Pollsmax projects Tokuda with 73% of the vote and a 99.9% win probability [1]. Similarly, DDHQ gives Tokuda a 99% win probability and rates the seat as Safe Democratic [4]. Other ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball also classify the district as Solid or Safe Democratic [5]. A Kalshi prediction market, as reported by a third-party tracker on September 26, showed an 82% implied probability for a contract tied to Brenton Awa achieving at least a 26% vote share; however, this is a market, not a direct candidate survey [2][3].
Sources (5)
- 12026 Hawaii 2nd District House Forecast - Pollsmaxpollsmax.com
- 2HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percent Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 3HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percent - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 42026 Hawaii US House 2 Forecast - DDHQ Votesvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 5Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
10. What are the key scheduled debates and town halls for the Brenton Awa and Jill Tokuda campaigns before the November 2026 election?
| Principal Debate Date | October 7, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Tokuda's Debate Stance | No further debates for the election cycle as of October 10, 2026 [2][3][4] |
| Awa Solo Appearance | October 6, 2026 on Hawaii News Now Spotlight Now [3] |
The principal direct debate between Brenton Awa and Jill Tokuda before the November 3, 2026 election was the Honolulu Civil Beat’s 2026 General Election Forum. This event took place on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, from 12:00 p.m. to 1:00 p.m. [1][2]. The forum, focused on Congressional District 2, was free, in-person, and livestreamed, and included a live audience Q&A session moderated by Politics Editor Chad Blair [1].
As of October 10, 2026, no further joint debates were scheduled between the candidates. Jill Tokuda's campaign stated she would not participate in additional debates during the current election cycle, with Hawaii News Now reporting that the Honolulu Civil Beat forum was the only face-off Tokuda agreed to [2][3][4]. Separately, on October 6, 2026, Brenton Awa appeared alone for a half-hour on Hawaii News Now’s Spotlight Now. This solo broadcast focused on district issues and included viewer questions, as Tokuda had declined to participate, making it a town-hall-style appearance rather than a joint debate [3].
Available reporting did not identify any additional publicly scheduled town halls for either candidate through Election Day. While Jill Tokuda's campaign actively engages in regular town halls and constituent-service outreach, no specific events were identified between October 10 and the November 3, 2026 election [5]. Therefore, based on publicly confirmed schedules as of October 10, 2026, the remaining slate of debates or town halls is currently empty unless new events are announced before the election [2][3][4].
Sources (5)
- 12026 General Election Forum: Congressional District 2 – Honolulu Civil Beatcivilbeat.org
- 2Awa and Tokuda face off in online forumhawaiinewsnow.com
- 3Maui mayor, state Sen. Awa join Spotlight Now ahead of...hawaiinewsnow.com
- 4Tokuda, Awa split on potential Trump impeachment in race...hawaiinewsnow.com
- 5Candidate Q&A: US House District 2 – Jill Tokudacivilbeat.org
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The market for Brenton Awa's vote percentage in the 2026 HI-02 general election faces significant bearish catalysts. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's win probability is consistently strong across various markets: Prediction Edge showed Tokuda at 95% and Awa at 6% on October 8, while Polymarket reported Tokuda at 95% and Awa at 5% on October 10 [1][2]. PoliAgg further indicated a 99% probability for Tokuda against 1% for Awa, alongside a D+32.2 modeled margin [3]. These figures reflect Hawaii's Democratic baseline and the race's solid-D rating [4][5][6][7][8]. Kalshi's market for Awa to achieve "at least 26%" of the vote was priced at approximately 82% on September 26, 2026 [5].
Further negative pressure on Awa's vote share stems from Tokuda's incumbency and her substantial fundraising advantage [4][5][6]. Campaign finance data through July 19, 2026, reported Awa's authorized committees with $122,614.57 in total receipts, $106,514 in disbursements, and approximately $16,101 cash on hand, contrasting with Tokuda's materially larger reported resources [9][7].
Despite the strong odds against an Awa victory, model-based vote-share estimates suggest a more favorable outcome for his percentage. Pollsmax projected Tokuda at 73% and Awa at 27% as of October 9, while Call the Map projected Awa at 29.0% with an 80% interval of 25.0%–32.9% [10][11]. Catalysts bullish for Awa's vote share include a Republican-leaning national environment, unusually strong late turnout or persuasion among Hawaii's neighbor-island and rural voters, Tokuda campaign weakness, or a polling/model miss [4][5][6]. The contract for Awa's vote percentage resolves from certified Hawaii election results, with Kalshi indicating a November 3, 2027 scheduled resolution date [4][5][6][12].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (12)
- 12026 Hawaii House Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 2HI-02 House Election Winnerpolymarket.com
- 3Hawaii 2nd District (HI-2) 2026 Polls — Tokuda vs Awa — PoliAggpoliagg.com
- 4HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percent Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 5HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percent - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percent Prediction Markets...dexwin.bet
- 7Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 8Awa seeks one term in Congress: ‘I don’t care’ about world policies | Election 2026 | Hawaii News Nowhawaiinewsnow.com
- 9AWA, BRENTON - Candidate overviewfec.gov
- 102026 Hawaii 2nd District House Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
- 11HI-02 House race 2026: Tokuda >99 in 100 | Tokuda vs. Awa forecast & polls — Call the Mapcallthemap.com
- 12HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percentcoinbase.com
