At least 46%
Market Model 84.0% 93.5%
At least 50%
Market Model 45.0% 47.4%
Topic tracker · Elections
Vote percentages in US general elections
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 4 so far (4 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Vote percentages in US general elections markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated October 19, 2026
Live markets
At least 42%
Market Model 16.0% 11.0%
At least 36%
Market Model 44.0% 25.0%
At least 34%
Market Model 18.0% 48.8%
At least 28%
Market Model 91.0% 82.0%
At least 76%
Market Model 64.0% 61.1%
At least 70%
Market Model 94.0% 91.9%
