Short Answer

Jerri Green securing at least 36% of the vote in the Tennessee Governor election is not expected. Polling data, model forecasts, and historical performance consistently place her likely vote share below this threshold; the market prices this outcome at 44.0%, while the model indicates 25.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's consistent downward trajectory on Jerri Green's expected vote share aligns with polling data showing a significant deficit in the Tennessee gubernatorial race. A TargetSmart/The Progress Fund poll conducted from September 9–12 showed Green with 36% support among likely voters, trailing Republican Marsha Blackburn by nine points. With 7% of voters undecided in that poll, the market has priced in a low probability of Green significantly outperforming this figure.

Sharp daily price movements in this contract do not appear to be driven by specific news events. Research identified no clear catalyst for a 12.0 percentage point spike on October 4. Other significant price changes noted on October 6 and October 12 could not be substantiated. The total traded volume of 1,694 contracts suggests a thin market where price action may not always reflect a direct response to new fundamental information.

Jerri Green's vote share likely remains below 38% given current polling data. Exceeding 40% is highly improbable, unsupported by models or historical Democratic trends. * Green's financial disadvantage and Blackburn's declined debates constrain potential upside.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
At least 42%	16.0%	11.0%	The 42% threshold lacks support from polls, models, or historical trends for Democrats in Tennessee.
At least 36%	44.0%	25.0%	Jerri Green's highest listed poll is 36%, indicating challenges to exceed this level.
At least 44%	26.0%	9.0%	The 44% target is ambitious, entirely unsupported by polling, model projections, or historical performance.
At least 40%	11.0%	13.0%	Reaching 40% requires a substantial surge unsupported by current polling, models, or historical data for Democrats.
At least 38%	32.0%	17.0%	Jerri Green's highest poll is 36%, making 38% a significant leap unsupported by current data.

Current Context

Jerri Green is the Democratic nominee in Tennessee's open-seat gubernatorial race. As of October 13, 2026, Green faces Republican Marsha Blackburn in the general election on November 3, 2026, with early voting scheduled for October 14–29 ^[1]^[2]. The latest public poll, conducted by TargetSmart/The Progress Fund from September 9–12 among 600 likely voters, showed Blackburn with 45% to Green's 36%, yielding a nine-point lead for Blackburn. Other candidates, David Hatley and Lauren Pinkston, polled at 10% and 2% respectively, with 7% undecided ^[1]^[2]. A September 2026 TargetSmart poll, funded by a Green-aligned donor, reported an initial vote choice of 45% for Blackburn and 36% for Green, although an issue-trust question narrowly favored Green 42% to Blackburn 41% after candidate biographies. This issue-trust result should not be interpreted as a standard ballot test ^[3].

Quantitative models and prediction markets strongly favor Republican Marsha Blackburn. Vote-Scope projected a 99% Republican win probability, estimating Green at 35.5% of the vote against Blackburn's 53.4%, with other candidates at 11.1% ^[4]. Decision Desk HQ assessed Blackburn's win probability at 94% versus Green's 6%, forecasting a Republican margin of approximately 21 points ^[5]. Prediction markets, from October 10–13, reflected a roughly 5–6% chance of Green winning, compared to about 94% for Blackburn. ElectionOdds reported Green at 5.5% and Blackburn at 94.1% on October 13, with cross-market summaries generally aligning ^[6]^[7]^[8]. A separate market for Jerri Green's vote share quoted a 36% threshold at approximately 90% as of October 2; this price reflects a threshold probability, not a direct forecast of Green receiving exactly 36% of the vote ^[9].

The consensus views Green as a substantial underdog despite recent polling improvement. Expert analysis and model-based forecasts indicate Green remains behind, with the latest conventional poll showing a nine-point deficit ^[10]^[1]. Structural models project Green's vote share around the mid-30s, giving Blackburn a 94–99% chance of victory ^[4]. Final vote percentages will be determined by certified official results, maintained by the Tennessee Secretary of State ^[11]^[2].

Sources (11)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: At least 38%

📈 October 13, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 23.0% to 32.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point market spike on October 13, 2026, appears to be Jerri Green's strategic use of social media to frame positive campaign narratives. Green's campaign promoted a recent poll by emphasizing her 42% to 41% lead over Blackburn on a "trust to address issues" question, despite a 36% vote share in the same poll ^[1]. Discussions across social media and media outlets also covered Green's request for independent Lauren Pinkston to withdraw, which could theoretically boost Green's vote share closer to the 38% target ^[1]^[2]. This social media-driven perception of momentum was likely reinforced by the coinciding October 13 announcement of a candidate forum featuring Green, which her opponent Marsha Blackburn had not confirmed for, just ahead of early voting ^[3]^[4]^[5]. Social media was a primary driver, establishing a positive narrative for Green that fueled the market movement.

📉 October 10, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 78.0% to 68.0%

What happened: The primary driver for a 10.0 percentage point drop in Jerri Green's vote percent prediction market on October 10, 2026, cannot be identified from the provided research, as the premise appears mismatched. Contemporaneous polling and forecasts consistently showed Green's support already below 38% on or around October 10, clustering between 32-36% ^[6]^[7]. While Jerri Green's campaign engaged in traditional media appearances and promoted her platform from October 8–10, these were campaign visibility efforts, not a polling collapse ^[3]^[8]^[9]^[10]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, as no specific activity leading to such a sudden and significant decline was found.

Outcome: At least 40%

📉 October 12, 2026: 55.0pp drop

Price decreased from 68.0% to 13.0%

What happened: The premise of a 55.0 percentage point drop in the "Jerri Green vote percent: At least 40%" market is not supported by the available evidence. On October 13, 2026, the market showed a flat 24-hour change, with the "at least 40%" outcome priced at 65% ^[11]. Polling averages and forecasts from October 12-13 consistently placed Green's expected vote share well below 40%, ranging from 31.6% to 35.5% ^[7]^[12]^[6]. There is no cited social media activity or traditional news event that indicates a significant price movement, let alone a 55-point drop, during this period ^[11]^[3]^[13].

Outcome: At least 42%

📉 October 06, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 45.0% to 37.0%

What happened: The requested 8.0 percentage point drop on October 6, 2026, for the "Tennessee Governor election: Jerri Green vote percent" market cannot be substantiated by the available research, as a similar move was identified for a different market (Democratic primary) in July 2026 ^[14]^[15]. While Jerri Green promoted a September 17–18 TargetSmart poll on social media, highlighting a 42% lead after voters heard candidate biographies, this activity predates the alleged October 6 movement and concerned a methodologically qualified figure, not initial vote preference which was 36% ^[1]^[16]^[17]^[18]. Therefore, a primary driver for the specified drop cannot be identified, and social media activity cannot be assessed as a driver for this unsubstantiated event.

📈 October 04, 2026: 12.0pp spike

Price increased from 40.0% to 52.0%

What happened: Research did not identify a clear social media post or traditional news event on October 04, 2026, that directly triggered the 12.0 percentage point price spike ^[19]^[10]. While Jerri Green's campaign had previously highlighted a September 17 poll showing 42% support in a non-vote-intention question, October 4 social media focused on campaign activities, not new polling ^[20]^[18]^[17]. Available polling data through October 12, 2026, continued to place Green's standard vote intention well below 42% ^[21]^[6]^[7]. Consequently, social media appears to be mostly noise or irrelevant to this specific price surge, which lacks an evident immediate catalyst.

Sources (21)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves based on Jerri Green's final official vote percentage in the Tennessee Governor election. A 'Yes' contract resolves if her vote percentage is at or above the specific threshold for that contract (e.g., 40%), and a 'No' contract resolves if it falls below that threshold. The election event is scheduled for November 3, 8:00 PM EST, and no special settlement conditions or specific sources for official results are detailed on the provided page.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
At least 36%	$1.00	$0.57	44%
At least 38%	$0.98	$0.77	32%
At least 44%	$0.92	$0.92	26%
At least 42%	$0.89	$0.92	16%
At least 40%	$0.89	$0.90	11%
At least 30%	$1.00	$0.36	0%
At least 32%	$1.00	$0.36	0%
At least 34%	$1.00	$0.36	0%
At least 46%	$0.89	$1.00	0%
At least 48%	$0.89	$1.00	0%

Market Discussion

A prediction market snapshot on October 2, 2026, indicated a 90% probability for Jerri Green to receive "At least 36%" of the valid votes in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial general election ^[1]. However, other prediction markets, as of October 12–13, 2026, strongly favored Republican Marsha Blackburn to win, showing Green's probability of victory around 5-6% ^[2]. Although Green won the Democratic primary with approximately 69.0% of the vote, and social media engagement for her was reported up 139% week over week on October 6, 2026, the general election on November 3, 2026, is not yet an observed result ^[3].

Sources (3)

5. Trust Index

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score91Strong

Trade quality20% of score42High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score81Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. What campaign events or debates between Jerri Green and Marsha Blackburn are scheduled before the November 3, 2026 election, and what is their potential to shift polling?

Head-to-head debate	None confirmed; Blackburn declined invitations (before Nov 3, 2026 election) ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Only confirmed forum date	Tuesday, October 27 ^[5]^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Reported poll deficit (Blackburn vs Green)	13 points (Blackburn 46%, Green 33%) ^[5]^[1]^[2]^[3]^[6]

Marsha Blackburn has reportedly declined all pre-election debate invitations and forums. Marsha Blackburn has reportedly declined all debate invitations, including any head-to-head debates with Jerri Green, before the November 3, 2026 election ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. The only clearly scheduled nonpartisan gubernatorial forum is set for Tuesday, October 27, featuring Jerri Green, David Hatley, and Lauren Pinkston from Middle Tennessee State University ^[5]^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. Blackburn was invited to this forum but has not confirmed her participation and is reported to have declined, having done no public forums during the campaign and characterizing Green as a 'socialist' ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5].

The upcoming forum is unlikely to significantly shift statewide polling. The October 27 forum, studio-produced and livestreamed statewide by Tennessee Press Association member newspapers, will not be open to in-person attendance ^[5]^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. This event is unlikely to cause a large polling realignment because Blackburn's absence removes the direct contrast voters would need for a conventional debate effect ^[5]^[1]^[2]^[3]. Furthermore, the forum includes two independent candidates and takes place during early voting, which commenced on October 14 ^[5]^[1]^[2]^[3].

Jerri Green may gain modest visibility but faces significant electoral hurdles. For Jerri Green, the main upside of this forum is increased earned media and statewide exposure, which could modestly improve visibility and potentially sway a small segment of undecided or weakly committed voters ^[5]^[1]^[2]^[3]^[6]. However, a major Green surge is less probable, considering a reported 13-point deficit in a Targoz poll (Blackburn 46%, Green 33%), Tennessee's prevailing Republican statewide environment, and the lack of a verified comprehensive event calendar for Green's campaign beyond social media posts ^[5]^[1]^[2]^[3]^[6]^[7]^[8].

Sources (8)

7. What do non-polling models like Vote-Scope and Decision Desk HQ project for Jerri Green's final vote share, and how do their methodologies differ from traditional polling?

Jerri Green Win Probability	6% (Decision Desk HQ) ^[1]
Marsha Blackburn Win Probability	94% (Decision Desk HQ) ^[1]
Projected Republican Margin	21 points (Decision Desk HQ) ^[1]

Decision Desk HQ projects a low win probability for Jerri Green. Its forecast for the Tennessee governor race, updated on October 11, 2026, assigns a 6% win probability to Jerri Green and 94% to Marsha Blackburn, projecting a Republican margin of 21 points ^[1]. This model relies entirely on fundamental factors, including partisan baseline adjustments, incumbency, presidential-party-cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage ^[1]. This approach is structurally different from a conventional poll average, with recent polls displayed separately ^[1]. However, the available information does not provide specific numeric projected vote shares for Jerri Green from Decision Desk HQ ^[1].

Vote-Scope employs a sophisticated model aggregating public polling data. Its methodology aggregates public polls using an open Bayesian BSTS model, which corrects for pollster house effects and calibrates accuracy based on past elections ^[2]. The model also utilizes prediction-market data as a disagreement detector rather than a direct substitute for polls ^[2]. Further details from its Orbit explanation describe a Kalman filter that updates estimates as new polls arrive, discounts pollster-specific lean, addresses repeated daily releases, and models uncertainty through simulations ^[3]. Despite its detailed methodology, the available facts do not state an exact Jerri Green vote-share point estimate from Vote-Scope ^[2].

Sources (3)

8. How do the latest campaign finance reports for Jerri Green and Marsha Blackburn compare in terms of fundraising, spending, and cash on hand for the final weeks of the election?

Marsha Blackburn Cash on Hand	$2,691,224 (as of October 13, 2026) ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Jerri Green Cash on Hand	$118,002 (as of October 13, 2026) ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Blackburn's Cash Reserve Advantage	Approximately 22.8 times larger than Green's ^[1]^[3]

Marsha Blackburn holds a significant financial advantage over Jerri Green as the final weeks of the election approach. As of October 13, 2026, Blackburn reported $2,691,224 in cash on hand, which is approximately 22.8 times more than Green's $118,002 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. Blackburn's total fundraising also substantially outpaced Green's, with $10,735,910 raised compared to Green's $849,586, representing about a 12.6-fold difference ^[1]^[3].

Spending patterns reveal Green has utilized a greater proportion of funds compared to Blackburn. Blackburn has expended approximately 74.9% of her raised funds, while Green has spent about 86.1% of hers ^[1]^[2]. This indicates that Green not only possesses significantly less absolute cash but has also consumed a larger percentage of her receipts ^[1]^[2]. Blackburn's substantially larger cash reserve provides her with a greater capacity for late advertising, organizing, and turnout spending in the crucial period leading up to the November 3, 2026 general election ^[1]^[2]^[4].

Earlier reports indicated Blackburn consistently out-raised and outspent Green even before the general election period. Pre-primary disclosures showed Blackburn raising $2.8 million and spending $1.1 million, whereas Green raised $303,817 and spent around $179,000 ^[5]. Furthermore, Blackburn benefited from over $2.5 million in supportive PAC spending, which is separate from her direct candidate account totals ^[5]. This substantial financial asymmetry suggests Blackburn enters the election's closing period with a major resource advantage, though campaign finance data does not directly determine vote percentages ^[1]^[3]^[6].

Sources (6)

9. When will final, certified results for the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election be available from the Tennessee Secretary of State, and what is the process?

General Election Date	Tuesday, November 3, 2026 ^[1]^[2]
County Certification Deadline	Monday, November 23, 2026 ^[1]^[2]
Final Certified Results Expected	After Monday, November 23, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]

Final certified results for the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election will be available following a multi-step process. The 2026 Tennessee state and federal general election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026 ^[1]^[2]. After the election, each county election commission must complete its canvassing of returns and submit results to the Secretary of State no later than the third Monday following the election ^[4]^[5]. For the 2026 election, this crucial county certification deadline falls on Monday, November 23, 2026 ^[1]^[2].

State officials complete the final statewide canvass and declare winners. Once all county returns are received, state officials, including the Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General and Reporter, conduct the final statewide canvass ^[4]^[5]^[3]. This process involves publicly calculating and comparing votes for state and federal offices, ultimately declaring the highest vote-getter elected, with the Governor issuing official certificates of election ^[4]^[5]. While initial election-night totals are considered unofficial, the final, certified results for the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election are anticipated after the county certification deadline of November 23, 2026. The Secretary of State’s Election Results page serves as the primary official source for this data ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[6].

The statewide canvass timing is flexible, with limited recount options. There is no specific fixed date for the final statewide canvass after the county returns arrive; instead, state officials conduct this process as soon as all necessary returns have been received ^[3]^[4]. Tennessee does not provide a general automatic or candidate-requested recount process outside of court decisions ^[4]^[7]^[8]. However, a newly enacted or proposed statutory challenge mechanism for local elections could potentially impact the timing of final resolution if applicable in an unusually close or contested result ^[4]^[7]^[8].

Sources (8)

10. What does historical data since 2002 show about the typical vote share for Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Tennessee, and what does this imply for Jerri Green's chances of reaching 40%?

Average Dem. Vote Share (2002-2022)	34.6% ^[1]
Highest Dem. Vote Share (excluding 2002)	38.5% (2018) ^[2]^[3]
Kalshi Market Price for Green >= 40%	11% ^[4]

Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Tennessee consistently receive less than 40% of the vote. Historical data since 2002 indicates that Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Tennessee have typically garnered less than 40% of the vote share, with only one exception. Across six general elections from 2002 to 2022, the average Democratic vote share stood at approximately 34.6% ^[1]. The highest share for a Democratic candidate, excluding the victory in 2002, was 38.5% in 2018 ^[2]^[3]. This trend suggests that a candidate reaching 40% would perform significantly above the typical Democratic showing in the state ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4].

Reaching 40% presents a substantial challenge for Jerri Green. Given these historical voting patterns, Jerri Green faces a substantial challenge in reaching the 40% threshold ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. As of an October 2026 market snapshot, a prediction market estimated Green's chance of achieving at least 40% at approximately 11% ^[4]. This estimation aligns with contemporaneous polling data, which placed Green at 36% in an initial ballot question and 34% in another poll ^[4]^[5]^[6]. These figures imply that surpassing 40% would require a notable improvement beyond her current polling range. While a result such as 38.5% in 2018 shows it is not impossible, the weight of historical evidence and current market assessments suggests that staying below 40% remains more probable ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4].

Sources (6)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Kalshi's threshold contracts for Jerri Green's certified share of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial popular vote price a substantially more favorable outcome for Green than current public polling ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]. The market shows approximately 65% for at least 40% of the vote, 44% for at least 42%, and 24% for at least 44% ^[1]. This contrasts with publicly surfaced polls showing Green at 36% in a September 9–12 poll, and other listed polls placing her between 27% and 34% ^[6]^[2]^[3]^[7]. A polling average cited October 12 put Green at 32.3% ^[4]. Bearish catalysts include the persistent Republican structural advantage, Blackburn's consistent polling lead, and the race being rated Safe/Solid Republican by multiple forecasters ^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]. The broader election-winner market displays a 94% forecasted win probability for Blackburn, versus 5% for Green as of October 12, 2026 ^[8]^[5].

Potential bullish catalysts for Green's vote-percent contracts include a late polling improvement, consolidation of anti-Blackburn/anti-Republican votes, strong early-vote and turnout organization, favorable campaign news, or a polling miss ^[2]^[4]^[9]. The strongest concrete positive signal found was TargetSmart's 36% Green result in its September 9–12 poll, alongside a post-biographical-description trust question showing Green at 42% versus Blackburn at 41% ^[2]^[4]. However, this poll was sponsored by a PAC supporting Green and initially showed Blackburn ahead 45%–36% ^[2]^[4]. Key election dates are the filing deadline March 10, 2026, and the general Election Day November 3, 2026 ^[9]^[10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: November 03, 2027
Closes: November 03, 2027

Sources (10)

12. Keep Exploring

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Tennessee Governor election: Jerri Green vote percent

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: At least 38%

📈 October 13, 2026: 9.0pp spike

📉 October 10, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Outcome: At least 40%

📉 October 12, 2026: 55.0pp drop

Outcome: At least 42%

📉 October 06, 2026: 8.0pp drop

📈 October 04, 2026: 12.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. What campaign events or debates between Jerri Green and Marsha Blackburn are scheduled before the November 3, 2026 election, and what is their potential to shift polling?

7. What do non-polling models like Vote-Scope and Decision Desk HQ project for Jerri Green's final vote share, and how do their methodologies differ from traditional polling?

8. How do the latest campaign finance reports for Jerri Green and Marsha Blackburn compare in terms of fundraising, spending, and cash on hand for the final weeks of the election?

9. When will final, certified results for the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election be available from the Tennessee Secretary of State, and what is the process?

10. What does historical data since 2002 show about the typical vote share for Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Tennessee, and what does this imply for Jerri Green's chances of reaching 40%?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: At least 38%

📈 October 13, 2026: 9.0pp spike

📉 October 10, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Outcome: At least 40%

📉 October 12, 2026: 55.0pp drop

Outcome: At least 42%

📉 October 06, 2026: 8.0pp drop

📈 October 04, 2026: 12.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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