Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary voter turnout to be above 1.45M, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. The reported total vote count of 1,696,547 definitively exceeds this threshold.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Total reported turnout for the 2026 primary confirmed at 1,696,547 votes [12].
  • Turnout definitively surpassed 1,650,000 votes, confirming "Yes" for lower thresholds [12].
  • Turnout remained below 1,700,000 votes, confirming "No" for higher thresholds [12].

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 1.7M 17.0% 0.0% The reported total vote count of 1,696,547 is below this threshold.
Above 1.45M 99.0% 100.0% The reported total vote count of 1,696,547 is above this threshold.
Above 1.75M 1.0% 0.0% The reported total vote count of 1,696,547 is below this threshold.
Above 1.5M 99.0% 100.0% The reported total vote count of 1,696,547 is above this threshold.
Above 1.8M 1.0% 0.0% The reported total vote count of 1,696,547 is below this threshold.

Current Context

Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination for Florida Governor. Donalds won the August 18, 2026, Republican primary election, receiving 810,675 votes, or approximately 47.78% of the total ballots counted [^][^][^][^][^]. The total ballots counted in the primary, as of August 19, 2026, were 1,696,547 [^]. Donalds will advance to face Democrat David Jolly in the general election on November 3, 2026, to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis [^][^][^][^][^][^]. His victory was supported by significant campaign funding and an endorsement from Donald Trump [^][^][^].
Primary turnout for the August 18 election was low. Statewide voter turnout for the Florida primary was approximately 24.52% [^][^]. Twelve candidates competed in the Republican primary, with Byron Donalds, Jay Collins, James Fishback, and Paul Renner identified as leading candidates prior to the election [^]. The Florida Republican Party canceled the primary debate, citing that only Donalds met their established polling and fundraising criteria, a decision that drew criticism from other candidates [^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This market experienced a near-total price collapse driven by the release of election results. The contract traded at a high of 97.0% on August 18 before declining sharply. The price action was defined by two major drops: a 21.0 percentage point fall on August 18, followed by a more substantial 44.0 percentage point drop on August 19. This repricing took the contract from near-certainty to its current price of 21.0%.
The primary catalyst for the market's collapse was the reporting of preliminary vote totals for the August 18 primary. According to reports, approximately 1,696,547 votes were cast. This figure appears to have been below the market's initial expectation, triggering the steep sell-off on August 19. Trading volume surged to over 10,000 contracts during this period, a massive increase that confirms strong market conviction as participants reacted to the new, definitive data. The provided information does not specify a driver for the initial price drop on August 18.
Market sentiment shifted from extreme confidence in a high-turnout scenario to a strong consensus against it. The key price points were the pre-election high of 97.0% and the post-results low of 21.0%. This reversal shows a market moving from speculation to processing a real-world outcome, effectively resolving the contract's central question. The price has since stabilized at the lower level, reflecting the new information.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 1.75M

📉 August 19, 2026: 78.0pp drop

Price decreased from 79.0% to 1.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 78.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market was the reporting of actual voter turnout for the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary. As of August 19, 2026, preliminary results from the August 18, 2026, primary indicated approximately 1,696,547 total votes were cast [^]. This figure fell below the "Above 1.75M" threshold for the market's outcome, leading to the substantial decline in its probability [^]. There is no evidence in the provided research to suggest that social media activity was a primary driver or even a contributing accelerant to this market movement.

Outcome: Above 1.65M

📈 August 18, 2026: 89.0pp spike

Price increased from 8.0% to 97.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not contain information on social media activity, traditional news announcements, or specific market events that would explain the 89.0 percentage point price spike for the "Above 1.65M" outcome in the Florida Republican Governor primary voter turnout market [^]. While the actual voter turnout for the August 18, 2026, election ultimately reached approximately 1.696 million votes, exceeding the threshold [^], the available data does not establish the timing or cause of the market movement. Without details on external catalysts or the exact time of the spike, no primary driver can be identified from the given sources, rendering social media's impact impossible to assess.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi prediction market is for the voter turnout in the Florida Republican Governor primary during the 2026 Primary Elections. For a contract like "Above 1.7M," a YES resolution is triggered if the total voter turnout exceeds 1.7 million, and a NO resolution is triggered if the turnout is 1.7 million or less. Settlement occurs only after the official results are certified, with a maximum payout date of August 18, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 1.45M $1.00 $0.01 99%
Above 1.55M $1.00 $0.01 99%
Above 1.5M $1.00 $0.01 99%
Above 1.65M $1.00 $0.01 99%
Above 1.6M $1.00 $0.01 99%
Above 1.7M $0.17 $0.86 17%
Above 1.85M $0.01 $1.00 2%
Above 1.75M $0.01 $1.00 1%
Above 1.8M $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Ahead of the August 18, 2026, Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, analysts projected voter turnout to be approximately 1.6 million ballots, with a range of 1.5 million to 1.75 million, reflecting a modest increase over recent cycles [^][^]. Although the primary was largely non-competitive, public discourse and prediction markets focused on turnout as a key indicator of general election enthusiasm, with Republicans showing a reported surge in in-person Election Day voting [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Total participation in the closed primary ultimately reached approximately 1,696,547 votes as of the morning of August 19, 2026 [^][^].

5. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

Above 1.7MPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality57Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality57Mostly confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
Above 1.45MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality90Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality90Confirmedlow confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
Above 1.5MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality89Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality89Confirmedlow confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
Above 1.55MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality85Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality85Confirmedlow confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
Above 1.6MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality86Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality86Confirmedlow confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
Above 1.65MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality80Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality80Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
Above 1.75MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above 1.8MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality84Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality84Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
Above 1.85MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality77Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality77Confirmedlow confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 19, 2026

6. How did turnout in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary compare to previous midterm cycles, specifically 2022 and 2018?

2026 Primary TurnoutApproximately 24% [^]
2026 Republican Primary Votes1,696,547 [^]
2018 Primary Turnout27% [^]
Florida's 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary turnout significantly decreased from prior midterms. The August 18, 2026 primary saw an approximate voter turnout of 24% across the state [^]. This represented a total of 1,696,547 votes cast in the Republican gubernatorial primary [^]. This turnout figure was lower than previous midterm cycles, specifically 27% in the 2018 gubernatorial primary and 26% in the 2022 gubernatorial primary [^].
The 2026 primary nominated Byron Donalds amidst a contested field. Byron Donalds successfully secured the nomination for governor, competing against other candidates including Jay Collins, James Fishback, and Paul Renner [^][^][^]. It is important to note the specific context of the 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary in Florida, which was not contested; the incumbent candidate advanced automatically, resulting in the primary being canceled [^][^].

7. What pre-election polling and turnout models from major forecasters predicted for the August 2026 primary, and how did they match the final results?

Predicted Donalds Vote Share34.0% (TPSI) [^]
Actual Donalds Vote Share47.78% [^]
Actual Total Turnout1,696,547 votes [^]
Major forecasters offered varied predictions for the August 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary. The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI) predicted Byron Donalds would secure 34.0% of the vote, with a projected turnout of approximately 1.635 million ballots [^]. An Emerson College poll from March 2026 also showed Byron Donalds leading the GOP primary field for governor [^], and some analysts suggested turnout could be between 1.6 and 1.75 million [^]. Prediction markets consistently identified Byron Donalds as the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination [^][^][^]. However, these platforms did not maintain active markets for voter turnout [^].
Donalds won with a significantly higher vote share than forecasted in the primary. In the August 18, 2026, election, Byron Donalds secured the nomination with 47.78% of the vote, accumulating 810,675 votes [^]. TPSI's prediction of 34.0% for Donalds' vote share was considerably lower than his actual performance [^]. While prediction markets correctly identified Donalds as the favorite, they did not accurately forecast his high final vote share percentage [^][^][^].
Turnout projections were largely accurate compared to the final total. The total number of votes cast in the primary reached 1,696,547 [^]. TPSI's turnout projection of approximately 1.635 million ballots was close to the final total [^]. Similarly, the 1.6 to 1.75 million turnout projections from other analysts were also close to the actual figure [^]. Prediction markets did not maintain active markets for voter turnout, and therefore did not provide specific forecasts for this metric [^].

8. Which key events, such as Donald Trump's endorsement of Byron Donalds or the cancellation of the primary debate, likely drove or suppressed voter turnout before the August 18 primary?

Primary Voter Turnout18.98% [^]
Byron Donalds' Primary Vote Share47.78% [^]
Trump's Endorsement DateFebruary 2025 [^]
Donald Trump's endorsement propelled Byron Donalds to frontrunner status. Donald Trump's preemptive endorsement of Byron Donalds in February 2025, combined with Donalds' significant financial advantage, established him as the presumptive frontrunner for the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary well before the election [^]. This high-profile endorsement was a core element of Donalds' campaign strategy [^]. Donalds ultimately won the August 18, 2026, Republican primary for Governor of Florida, securing approximately 47.78% of the vote [^]. The primary observed an 18.98% voter turnout, with 244,454 ballots cast from 1,288,156 registered voters [^].
The Florida GOP canceled its gubernatorial debate, generating controversy. The Republican Party of Florida canceled its scheduled gubernatorial debate because Byron Donalds was the sole candidate to meet all internal qualification criteria [^]. These criteria included specific polling thresholds, $10 million raised, and over 10,000 donors [^]. This cancellation provoked considerable controversy, drawing criticism from primary opponents who alleged the process was designed to favor Donalds [^]. Governor Ron DeSantis also voiced criticism regarding the Florida GOP's decision not to hold a primary debate for governor [^].

9. What were the certified vote totals by county for the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary according to the Florida Division of Elections?

Primary DateAugust 18, 2026 [^][^]
Official Results StatusNot yet released as of August 19, 2026 [^]
Projected WinnerU.S. Representative Byron Donalds [^][^][^][^]
The Florida Republican gubernatorial primary occurred on August 18, 2026 [^] [^] . Following the primary election, U.S. Representative Byron Donalds was projected as the winner of the race [^][^][^][^]. However, as of August 19, 2026, the Florida Division of Elections had not yet released the official certified vote totals by county for this election [^].
Current results available are unofficial and preliminary. Consequently, the results currently available are unofficial and based on reporting from various news organizations, including Decision Desk HQ [^][^][^]. Official certified county-level vote totals have not yet been published by the Florida Division of Elections [^].

10. How did voter turnout rates in Republican strongholds like Southwest Florida and the Panhandle compare to each other in the August 2026 primary?

Statewide primary turnout (2026)24.52% (as of late election night) [^][^]
Lee County anticipated primary turnout (2026)Exceeding 23% (from 2024) [^]
Sarasota County votes (2026 Republican gubernatorial primary)56,477 votes [^]
Southwest Florida anticipated higher voter participation in the 2026 primary. For the August 18, 2026, Florida primary, counties in Southwest Florida such as Lee and Collier anticipated increased voter participation compared to the 2024 primary, with Lee County officials projecting turnout to surpass the 23% recorded in 2024 [^]. Statewide, the voter turnout for the 2026 primary reached approximately 24.52% by late election night [^][^]. This figure was slightly less than the 27% turnout observed in the 2018 primary election [^][^].
Direct regional turnout rate comparison for 2026 is not possible. While specific vote counts are available for the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, the available information does not provide comparable voter turnout rates as percentages, which prevents a direct comparison between Southwest Florida and the Panhandle regions for this primary [^]. In Southwest Florida, Sarasota County reported 56,477 votes [^]. In the Panhandle region, Escambia County registered 31,844 votes and Santa Rosa County reported 24,822 votes [^].

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

U.S. Representative Byron Donalds traded at approximately 98-99% to win the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary nomination in prediction markets [^][^][^][^]. This high probability reflected a Trump endorsement and consistent double-digit polling leads [^][^][^][^]. Market liquidity concentrated on the nomination winner and, to a lesser extent, runner-up status between Jay Collins and James Fishback [^][^][^].
Bullish catalysts identified by markets included maintained Donalds candidacy and fundraising dominance [^] [^] . Bearish or disruptive catalysts encompassed hypothetical events such as major late-breaking scandals, health issues, or an appellate reversal of ballot-qualification rulings [^][^]. The primary election occurred on August 18, 2026 [^][^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 18, 2027
  • Closes: August 18, 2027

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: U.S.
  • Trigger: Representative Byron Donalds traded at approximately 98-99% to win the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary nomination in prediction markets [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: This high probability reflected a Trump endorsement and consistent double-digit polling leads [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: Market liquidity concentrated on the nomination winner and, to a lesser extent, runner-up status between Jay Collins and James Fishback [^] [^] [^] .

14. Related News

+67.0pp
Last updated: August 19, 2026, 12:36 UTC

Florida GOP Primary Turnout Nears 1.7M, Pushing Prediction Market Odds to 99%

The release of official vote counts from Florida's primary on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, drove a sharp repricing in prediction markets for Republican gubernatorial primary turnout, with contracts imply...

15. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 14 resolved YES, 6 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY13D26-85000: NO (Jul 20, 2026)
  • KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY13D26-80000: NO (Jul 20, 2026)
  • KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY13D26-75000: NO (Jul 20, 2026)
  • KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY13D26-70000: YES (Jul 20, 2026)
  • KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY13D26-65000: YES (Jul 20, 2026)