Topic tracker · Elections
Turnout in primaries
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 5 so far (0 live, 5 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Turnout in primaries markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated September 9, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| NH-01 Democratic primary: voter turnout | September 8, 2027 | 33.2% vs 33.0% | Report → |
| South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff: voter turnout | August 25, 2027 | 100.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Florida Republican Governor primary: voter turnout | August 18, 2027 | 0.0% vs 17.0% | Report → |
| KY-04 Republican primary: voter turnout | May 19, 2027 | 96.0% vs 0.0% | Report → |
| Ohio Republican Governor primary: voter turnout | May 5, 2027 | 100.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
