Topic tracker · Elections

Turnout in primaries

Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 5 so far (5 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Turnout in primaries markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.

Last updated September 9, 2026

Live markets

NH-01 Democratic primary: voter turnout Kalshi

≥80,000

Market Model 33.0% 33.2%

≥65,000

Market Model 99.0% 99.0%

41.3K contracts Refresh

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff: voter turnout Kalshi

Above 325k

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

Above 300k

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

674.1K contracts Refresh

Florida Republican Governor primary: voter turnout Kalshi

Above 1.7M

Market Model 17.0% 0.0%

Above 1.45M

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

300.4K contracts Refresh

KY-04 Republican primary: voter turnout Kalshi

Above 60k

Market Model 96.0% 96.0%

Above 90k

Market Model 52.0% 53.5%

20.5K contracts Refresh

Ohio Republican Governor primary: voter turnout Kalshi

Above 1.0M

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

Above 900k

Market Model 3.0% 0.0%

106.6K contracts Refresh

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