Short Answer

Qualitative indicators of high engagement suggest turnout for the 2026 NH-01 Democratic primary will be at least 55,000, though official aggregate figures are not yet finalized. The market prices this outcome at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market repriced sharply on September 9, the day after the New Hampshire primary election. This 23.0 percentage point increase reflects the processing of actual election results for the NH-01 Democratic primary. The fundamental driver for potentially strong turnout was the competitive nature of the race; nine candidates vied for the open seat after incumbent Chris Pappas sought a U.S. Senate position.
An earlier 19.0 point spike occurred on September 8, the day of the primary itself. The move from a very low probability suggests the market began pricing in the possibility of higher turnout as voting got underway. While no specific news report is cited as a trigger, the timing coincides with real-time information flow from an active and contested election.
  • Turnout is expected high, potentially exceeding 2018's 64,573 votes, driven by an open-seat race.
  • Market shows 99% probability for turnout ≥75,000, amid reports of a "fierce" contest.
  • Official 2026 primary turnout figures remain unfinalized and widely unreported.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
≥80,000 33.0% 33.2% Preliminary or official numerical confirmation for 2026 primary turnout is currently absent.
≥65,000 99.0% 99.0% Official turnout figures are not yet finalized, but qualitative indicators suggest high engagement exceeding 2018 levels.
≥55,000 99.0% 99.5% Official turnout figures are not yet finalized; however, qualitative indicators suggest high engagement.
≥60,000 99.0% 99.5% Official turnout figures are not yet finalized; however, qualitative indicators suggest high engagement.
≥75,000 99.0% 95.0% Preliminary or official numerical confirmation for 2026 primary turnout is currently absent.

Current Context

The New Hampshire primary occurred September 8, with Shaheen winning NH-01. The 2026 New Hampshire State Primary election took place on Tuesday, September 8, 2026 [1][2][3]. Nine candidates competed in the Democratic primary for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District (NH-01) after incumbent Chris Pappas sought a U.S. Senate seat [4][5][6]. Stefany Shaheen won the Democratic nomination, defeating Maura Sullivan and Carleigh Beriont in a closely contested race [7][8]. The Associated Press called the race for Shaheen early Wednesday morning, September 9, 2026 [7].
Shaheen secured a narrow lead; turnout data remains unofficial. With over 95 percent of the vote counted, Shaheen finished with approximately 37 percent, followed by Maura Sullivan with 35 percent and Carleigh Beriont with 23 percent [7][8]. Anthony DiLorenzo secured the Republican nomination for the 1st Congressional District in the same primary [9][10][11]. As of September 9, 2026, official voter turnout figures for the September 8 Democratic primary were not yet finalized or widely reported in aggregate systems like Decision Desk HQ [12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 12026-2027 Political Calendar | New Hampshire Secretary of Statesos.nh.gov
  2. 2New Hampshire Election Dates 2026: Voter Deadlines | Elections Centerelections.mytimetovote.com
  3. 3New Hampshire Primary Election - Tuesday, September 8, 2026ballotready.org
  4. 4Nine candidates are running in the Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  5. 5New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2026...ballotpedia.org
  6. 6New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  7. 7Stefany Shaheen wins Democratic primary for New Hampshire House seat left open by Chris Pappasthehill.com
  8. 8The Dynasty Delivers: Shaheen Snags Narrow Win in NH-01 Primary - NH Journalnhjournal.com
  9. 9DiLorenzo wins GOP primary in 1st Congressional District; Democratic race still open | New Hampshire Public Radionhpr.org
  10. 101st CD Dem primary too close to call - Shaheen holds tenuous lead | State | unionleader.comunionleader.com
  11. 11Races Set, but 1st District Democratic Primary Too Close to Call - InDepthNH.orgInDepthNH.orgindepthnh.org
  12. 122026 New Hampshire US House 1 Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  13. 132026 New Hampshire US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: ≥75,000

📈 September 09, 2026: 71.0pp spike

Price increased from 28.0% to 99.0%

What happened: The provided research indicates there is no evidence of a 71.0 percentage point (pp) spike or a turnout exceeding 75,000 voters for the "NH-01 Democratic primary: voter turnout" market on September 9, 2026 [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6]. Furthermore, the 2026 New Hampshire primary elections were characterized by record low numbers of contested primaries since 2010 [7]. Without evidence that the described price movement occurred, it is not possible to identify a primary driver, whether from social media, traditional news, or market structure factors. Social media's role, therefore, cannot be assessed as a driver, accelerant, or noise.

Outcome: ≥70,000

📈 September 08, 2026: 85.0pp spike

Price increased from 4.0% to 89.0%

What happened: The provided research indicates that the reported "85.0 percentage point spike" in the prediction market for the NH-01 Democratic primary voter turnout (outcome "≥70,000") on September 8, 2026, is not substantiated by available election or market analysis [8]. Credible sources do not document such a turnout spike or an influx of 70,000+ votes for this specific primary [3]. Therefore, a primary driver for this described price movement cannot be identified, as the movement itself appears to be unconfirmed or based on inaccurate data [8]. Consequently, social media activity is irrelevant to this unsubstantiated event.

Outcome: ≥55,000

📈 September 07, 2026: 21.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 22.0%

What happened: The provided research indicates there is no evidence to support the occurrence of a 21.0 percentage point price spike related to a ≥55,000 voter turnout in the NH-01 Democratic primary on September 7, 2026 [9][10][11][12][13][14]. The Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District was held on September 8, 2026 [9][10][11][12][3][13][15]. Without confirmation of this specific market event, it is not possible to identify a primary driver from social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors.
Sources (15)
  1. 1NH-01 Democratic primary: voter turnout - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  2. 2Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09? — Historical market archive | Orrery | Orreryorrery.me
  3. 32026 New Hampshire US House 1 Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 42026 New Hampshire US House 1 Vote History | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 New Hampshire US House 1 | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 New Hampshire US House 1 Vote History | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Primaries and incumbent contests down in New Hampshire this year—record lows since 2010 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Big Polymarket movers — 1m…7d · Polytrackertrackerpoly.com
  9. 9Stefany Shaheen wins Democratic primary for New Hampshire House seat left open by Chris Pappasthehill.com
  10. 10Shaheen defeats Sullivan to win Democratic nomination in 1st Congressional District | News From The Statesnewsfromthestates.com
  11. 11DiLorenzo wins GOP primary in 1st Congressional District; Democratic race still open | New Hampshire Public Radionhpr.org
  12. 12Races Set, but 1st District Democratic Primary Too Close to Call - InDepthNH.orgInDepthNH.orgindepthnh.org
  13. 13New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2026...ballotpedia.org
  14. 14New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2024 (September 10 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  15. 15New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For each contract, a "YES" resolution occurs if the official voter turnout for the NH-01 Democratic primary is greater than or equal to the specified threshold, and a "NO" resolution occurs if it is less than the specified threshold. Settlement for these markets happens only after the results are officially certified. The maximum payout date for contracts in this market is September 8, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
≥55,000 $1.00 $0.01 99%
≥60,000 $1.00 $0.01 99%
≥65,000 $1.00 $0.01 99%
≥70,000 $1.00 $0.01 99%
≥75,000 $1.00 $0.01 99%
≥80,000 $0.34 $0.76 33%
≥85,000 $0.01 $1.00 1%
≥90,000 $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

The Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, held on September 8, 2026, was an extremely close contest between frontrunners Stefany Shaheen and Maura Sullivan, with results remaining too close to call as of September 9, 2026 [1][2]. The race turned increasingly negative, marked by bitter exchanges between campaigns [3]. This open-seat primary featured nine candidates, including several with significant media attention and fundraising, which was extensively tracked by prediction markets, with some specifically focusing on voter turnout [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13].

Sources (13)
  1. 1DiLorenzo wins GOP primary in 1st Congressional District; Democratic race still open | New Hampshire Public Radionhpr.org
  2. 2Races Set, but 1st District Democratic Primary Too Close to Call - InDepthNH.orgInDepthNH.orgindepthnh.org
  3. 3Democratic race for Pappas seat in New Hampshire grows increasingly bitter – Roll Callrollcall.com
  4. 4NH-01 Democratic primary: voter turnout Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  5. 5NH-01 Democratic nominee? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  6. 6https://polymarket.com/event/nh-01-democratic-primary-winner?r=predictionhunteventspolymarket.com
  7. 7NH-01 Democratic nominee Elections Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  8. 8Who Wins the NH-01 Democratic Primary in 2026?lines.com
  9. 9NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner — 19 Markets, Analytics & Predictions | Accrue | Accrueaccrue.com
  10. 10New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2026...ballotpedia.org
  11. 11New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  12. 12Nine candidates are running in the Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  13. 132026 New Hampshire US House 1 Markets | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com

5. What did preliminary, unofficial vote totals from sources like the Associated Press indicate for the NH-01 Democratic primary turnout as of the morning of September 9, 2026?

NH-01 Democratic Primary TurnoutNot available as of September 9, 2026 (Associated Press, etc.) [1][2][3]
Reported Preliminary Vote TotalsNot available from major election sources, some platforms showed 0 votes recorded (Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ) [4][5][6]
Preliminary Vote Count Percentage70-72% counted on election night (September 8, 2026) [1][3]
As of September 9, 2026, preliminary primary turnout data was widely unavailable. Definitive final voter turnout numbers for the New Hampshire 1st Congressional District Democratic primary, which took place on September 8, 2026, were not available from major election tracking sources or media outlets. Preliminary, unofficial vote totals from sources like the Associated Press were also not released [1][2][3].
Major election reporting sources showed no preliminary vote totals. Specifically, finalized or reported preliminary vote totals were not available for the NH-01 Democratic primary through major election reporting sources such as the Associated Press or Decision Desk HQ [4][5][6]. Some platforms, including Decision Desk HQ, indicated 0 votes recorded for the race as of the morning of September 9, 2026 [4][5][6]. Coverage late on election night and early on the morning of September 9, 2026, focused on the competitive nature of the race and the close margin between candidates Stefany Shaheen and Maura Sullivan, rather than providing total vote turnout figures [1][2][3].
Vote counting progressed slowly, leaving the race too close. Preliminary reporting on the night of September 8, 2026, indicated that 70-72% of the vote had been counted [1][3]. At that time, media outlets characterized the Democratic primary as "too close to call" [1][3].
Sources (6)
  1. 11st CD Dem primary too close to call - Shaheen holds tenuous lead | State | unionleader.comunionleader.com
  2. 2DiLorenzo wins GOP primary in 1st Congressional District; Democratic race still open | New Hampshire Public Radionhpr.org
  3. 3Races Set, but 1st District Democratic Primary Too Close to Call - InDepthNH.orgInDepthNH.orgindepthnh.org
  4. 42026 New Hampshire US House 1 Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 New Hampshire US House 1 Vote History | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 New Hampshire US House 1 Vote History | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com

6. What were the primary drivers behind voter engagement in the 2026 NH-01 Democratic primary, particularly the impact of it being an open-seat race and the high-profile candidacies of Stefany Shaheen and Maura Sullivan?

Nature of ContestOpen-seat primary [1][2][3][4]
Number of Democratic CandidatesNine [5][3]
Primary Engagement DriversStefany Shaheen and Maura Sullivan [1][2][6][7]
The 2026 NH-01 Democratic primary was primarily an open-seat race. This occurred after incumbent Representative Chris Pappas decided to run for the U.S. Senate, leaving a vacancy in a historically swing district [1][2][3][4]. This open-seat status attracted a crowded field of nine Democratic candidates and significantly increased media and voter interest [5][3]. The district became unique, as it featured the highest number of candidates among all New Hampshire congressional districts in 2026 [3][1][8].
High-profile candidacies fueled significant voter engagement and competition. Further engagement stemmed from the competitive rivalry between Stefany Shaheen, daughter of Senator Jeanne Shaheen, and Maura Sullivan, a Marine veteran and former Obama administration official [1][2][6][7]. Shaheen and Sullivan, along with Christian Urrutia, led the field in media attention, fundraising, and endorsements [1][8]. The primary was characterized by bitter, negative campaign tactics, including Sullivan's attacks on Shaheen's familial connections and Shaheen's criticisms of Sullivan's donor ties [2][6][7]. Stefany Shaheen ultimately secured the nomination in a close contest against Maura Sullivan [2][4][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Nine candidates are running in the Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  2. 2Stefany Shaheen wins Democratic primary for New Hampshire House seat left open by Chris Pappasthehill.com
  3. 3New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2026...ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Shaheen defeats Sullivan to win Democratic nomination in 1st Congressional District | News From The Statesnewsfromthestates.com
  5. 52026 US House (NH) District 1 Democratic Primary - Local Candidateslocalcandidates.org
  6. 6Live results: Maura Sullivan, Stefany Shaheen face off in testy New Hampshire House primarythehill.com
  7. 7In N.H., Democratic primary for US First Congressional District is too close to callbostonglobe.com
  8. 8Maura Sullivan - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  9. 9Races Set, but 1st District Democratic Primary Too Close to Call - InDepthNH.orgInDepthNH.orgindepthnh.org

7. How did the 2026 Democratic primary turnout in New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District compare to the turnout in the Republican primary for the same district?

Election DateSeptember 8, 2026 [1][2][3]
Vote Count Status (Sept 9, 2026)Not yet finalized or publicly consolidated [4]
Official Totals AvailabilityNot yet available or published [5][6][7][8]
The 2026 New Hampshire state primary election took place on September 8, 2026 [1][2][3].
Final turnout figures for the 1st Congressional District are not yet available. As of the early morning of September 9, 2026, comprehensive, final vote count totals for the turnout in both the 2026 Democratic and Republican primaries in New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District had not yet been finalized or publicly consolidated [4]. Official or confirmed final vote totals for these primaries were also not yet available or published on the day after the election [5][6][7][8]. Therefore, based on the currently available information, a comparison of the turnout in the 2026 Democratic primary to the Republican primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District is not possible.
Sources (8)
  1. 1New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2026...ballotpedia.org
  2. 2United States House elections in New Hampshire, 2026 (September 8 Democratic primaries) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2026...ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Full New Hampshire state primary election results for Sept. 8, 2026wmur.com
  5. 52026 New Hampshire US House 1 Live Election Results | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 New Hampshire US House 1 | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 72026 New Hampshire US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 New Hampshire Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

8. What is the official process and timeline for the New Hampshire Secretary of State to finalize and certify election results, including voter turnout data, for the September 8, 2026 primary?

Local moderator certificate submission48 hours after election [1][2][3]
Clerks absentee ballot certificate submission (2026)72 hours of close of polls [4]
Recount application deadline5:00 p.m. on the Friday following the election [2][3][5]
New Hampshire's election results are finalized by aggregating local returns. The New Hampshire Secretary of State collects returns submitted by local moderators to officially declare primary winners and finalize election outcomes [1][2][3]. Following an election, local moderators must submit a Post-Election Certificate to the Secretary of State within 48 hours, which includes details on voter turnout and reconciliations [1][2][3]. For the 2026 election cycle, new legislation also requires clerks to forward specific absentee ballot certificates and corresponding counts to the Secretary of State within 72 hours of the polls closing [4].
Certification aims for completion before the primary election recount deadline. While there is no formal statutory deadline for the final certification of election results, the Secretary of State's office intends to complete this process prior to the deadline to request a recount [2][3]. This deadline for recount applications is 5:00 p.m. on the Friday immediately following the primary election [2][3][5]. Candidates in state primary elections may apply for a recount if the vote margin between them and the declared winner is less than 10 votes or less than 1.5% of the total ballots cast for their party in the relevant districts [5].
Voter turnout data is collected and publicly available after the election. The Post-Election Certificates submitted by local moderators include voter turnout and reconciliation data [1][2][3]. As of September 9, 2026, the New Hampshire Secretary of State had already published the results for the 2026 State Primary Election, which incorporated 'Ballots Cast' and 'Names on Checklist' data files [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Election Law Navigatorelectionlawnavigator.org
  2. 2Follow the ballot: What happens after you vote in NH? | New Hampshire Public Radionhpr.org
  3. 32024 State Primary Election Media Guidesos.nh.gov
  4. 4New Hampshire HB1306legislation.ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Recount laws in New Hampshire - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 62026 State Primary Election Results | New Hampshire Secretary of...sos.nh.gov

9. How does voter turnout in the 2026 NH-01 Democratic primary compare to historical turnout in the district's primaries during recent midterm elections (e.g., 2018, 2022)?

2026 Primary DateSeptember 8, 2026 [1][2][3]
2026 Primary OutcomeCalled for Stefany Shaheen [4][5][6]
2018 Primary Turnout64,573 votes cast [7][8]
Official voter turnout numbers for the 2026 NH-01 Democratic primary are not yet available. The primary was held on September 8, 2026 [1][2][3] and was characterized as a competitive, high-profile, multi-candidate race that involved significant spending [4][5][6]. As of September 9, 2026, the official voter turnout numbers for this primary are not yet listed or fully aggregated in the examined sources [9][10].
Historical turnout in NH-01 primaries shows varied engagement. In 2018, the NH-01 Democratic primary recorded a total of 64,573 votes cast [7][8]. Conversely, the 2022 NH-01 Democratic primary was largely uncontested, with the incumbent facing no significant opposition [11]. Given that official or final voter turnout numbers for the 2026 primary had not been reported or fully aggregated in the examined sources by September 9, 2026, a direct numerical comparison to the historical figures from 2018 and 2022 is not yet possible [9][10].
Sources (11)
  1. 1New Hampshire election calendar - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 election and voting dates - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3New Hampshire elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Stefany Shaheen and Anthony DiLorenzo win primaries in closely-watched New Hampshire congressional district, CBS News projects - CBS Newscbsnews.com
  5. 5Stefany Shaheen wins Democratic primary for New Hampshire House seat left open by Chris Pappasthehill.com
  6. 6Shaheen defeats Sullivan to win Democratic nomination in 1st Congressional District | News From The Statesnewsfromthestates.com
  7. 7NH Elections Database » 2018 U.S. House Democratic Primary District 1nh.electionstats.com
  8. 8New Hampshire U.S. House Democratic Primary Election, September 11, 2018 - Election Results - Power Voterpowervoter.us
  9. 92026 New Hampshire US House 1 Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  10. 102026 New Hampshire US House 1 Live Election Results | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  11. 11New Hampshire First Congressional District Primary Election Resultsnytimes.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Prediction market sentiment for the New Hampshire 1st Congressional District Democratic primary experienced significant volatility in late August 2026 [1][2][3]. The race shifted from a strong lead for Stefany Shaheen to a competitive contest or a lead for Maura Sullivan following a mid-August Saint Anselm College poll, which indicated a statistical dead heat [1][2][3].
Beyond polling results, other catalysts influencing market probabilities included negative ad campaigns and media reports concerning Shaheen’s connections to the Jeffrey Epstein/ARMI narrative [4][1][2]. The primary election for NH-01 occurred on September 8, 2026 [5][6][7], with the candidate filing deadline having been June 12, 2026 [8]. Incumbent Representative Chris Pappas did not seek re-election to the 1st District [9][10], leaving nine candidates to contest the Democratic nomination [9][10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 08, 2027
  • Closes: September 08, 2027
Sources (10)
  1. 1NH-01 Primary Odds: Shaheen vs Sullivan Dead Heat | Kalshi | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  2. 2NH-01 Democratic Nominee Odds: Shaheen vs Sullivan | Kalshi | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  3. 32026 New Hampshire Democratic House Primary: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  4. 4Who Wins the NH-01 Democratic Primary in 2026?lines.com
  5. 5Democratic Party primaries in New Hampshire, 2026ballotpedia.org
  6. 6NH primary 2026 results. Here's who won and who will be on Nov. ballotfosters.com
  7. 7Live Results: New Hampshire midterm primaries | PBS Newspbs.org
  8. 8Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing Deadlines for Ballot Accessfec.gov
  9. 9Nine candidates are running in the Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  10. 10New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2026...ballotpedia.org

12. Related News

+71.0pp
Last updated: September 9, 2026, 12:39 UTC

Close NH-01 Primary Drives Turnout Expectations Sharply Higher

The conclusion of a closely contested Democratic primary in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District on Tuesday, September 8, 2026, prompted a significant repricing in voter turnout prediction marke...

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 13 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SCRSENS26-400000: NO (Aug 29, 2026)
  • KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SCRSENS26-375000: NO (Aug 29, 2026)
  • KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SCRSENS26-350000: YES (Aug 29, 2026)
  • KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SCRSENS26-325000: YES (Aug 29, 2026)
  • KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SCRSENS26-300000: YES (Aug 29, 2026)