Primaries Markets

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.

Active Markets (2)

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Polymarket

Byron Donalds

Market Model 0.4% 0.5%

Mike Pence

Market Model 0.2% 50.0%

$693.3M Refresh

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Polymarket

Oprah Winfrey

Market Model 0.3% 0.4%

Bernie Sanders

Market Model 0.4% 0.5%

$1268.4M Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Top outcome: Byron Donalds	0.4%	0.5%	Med	40	Refresh
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Top outcome: Oprah Winfrey	0.3%	0.4%	High	40	Refresh

Expired Markets (169)

DE-AL Republican nominee? Kalshi

Joseph Arminio

Market Model 99.0% 99.6%

John J. Whalen III

Market Model 1.0% 0.1%

184.5K contracts

Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Aaron Guckian

Market Model 99.4% 99.5%

Elaine Pelino

Market Model 0.4% 0.4%

216.5K contracts

NH-01 Democratic primary: voter turnout Kalshi

≥80,000

Market Model 33.0% 33.2%

≥65,000

Market Model 99.0% 99.0%

41.3K contracts

MA-01 Democratic primary: Richard Neal vote percent Kalshi

At least 55%

Market Model 10.0% 0.0%

At least 70%

Market Model 5.0% 0.0%

19.8K contracts

LA-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Lauren Jewett

Market Model 16.0% 98.9%

Jim Long

Market Model 0.3% 1.1%

73.1K contracts

Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory? (Mike Mazzei) Kalshi

Mike Mazzei, ≥6%

Market Model 1.0% 0.1%

Mike Mazzei, ≥3%

Market Model 1.0% 0.1%

19.4K contracts

Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory? Kalshi

Gentner Drummond, 0-3%

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

Mike Mazzei, 0-3%

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

96.8K contracts

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff: voter turnout Kalshi

Above 325k

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

Above 300k

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

674.1K contracts

FL-19 Republican primary: Jim Schwartzel vote percent Kalshi

At least 35%

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

At least 30%

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

33.4K contracts

Florida Republican Governor primary: voter turnout Kalshi

Above 1.7M

Market Model 17.0% 0.0%

Above 1.45M

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

300.4K contracts

FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent Kalshi

At least 50%

Market Model 99.0% 99.9%

At least 80%

Market Model 1.0% 0.1%

43.3K contracts

FL-07 Republican primary margin of victory? Kalshi

Ryan Elijah, 12-16%

Market Model 97.0% 69.0%

Ryan Elijah, ≥20%

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

28.8K contracts

Florida Republican Governor primary: Byron Donalds vote percent Kalshi

At least 55%

Market Model 54.0% 35.0%

At least 60%

Market Model 31.0% 12.0%

218.5K contracts

FL-20 Democratic primary: Debbie Wasserman Schultz vote percent Kalshi

At least 35%

Market Model 81.0% 72.8%

At least 40%

Market Model 80.0% 71.5%

5.0K contracts

Alaska U.S. Senate primary: Mary Peltola vote percent Kalshi

At least 30%

Market Model 99.0% 98.5%

At least 50%

Market Model 85.0% 80.9%

9.7K contracts

Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$206.4K

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory (0.2% Brackets) Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$213.1K

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$213.0K

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$216.3K

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$263.5K

FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$269.7K

Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$286.5K

Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$450.7K

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? Kalshi

Darline Graham

Market Model 86.0% 91.4%

Ralph Norman

Market Model 14.0% 5.6%

9.8M contracts

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary: Milwaukee County Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$3.7K

Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.6M contracts

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$782.9K

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$2.6M

Florida Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

16.9M contracts

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent Kalshi

At least 1%

Market Model 98.0% 96.8%

At least 20%

Market Model 19.0% 12.8%

1.4M contracts

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.2M contracts

Oklahoma Democratic Senate nominee? Kalshi

Jim Priest

Market Model 11.0% 8.3%

N’Kiyla Thomas

Market Model 88.0% 91.7%

30.2K contracts

South Carolina Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.5M contracts

Georgia Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.3M contracts

California Governor primary: 1st place Kalshi

Steve Hilton

Market Model 0.8% 0.0%

Xavier Becerra

Market Model 99.3% 100.0%

5.8M contracts

SC-01 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Mark Smith

Market Model 62.0% 60.9%

Jenny Costa Honeycutt

Market Model 47.0% 39.1%

131.8K contracts

California Governor primary advancers? (Party) Kalshi

1 Democrat and 1 Republican

Market Model 87.0% 84.8%

2 Democrats

Market Model 17.0% 15.2%

1.5M contracts

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory Kalshi

Ken Paxton, 20%+

Market Model 99.8% 99.9%

Ken Paxton, 15-20%

Market Model 0.2% 0.0%

3.5M contracts

CO-02 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Christina Blunt

Market Model 0.0% 46.9%

Kelley Dennison

Market Model 0.0% 53.1%

0 contracts

CA-40 primary advancers? Kalshi

Esther Kim Varet

Market Model 39.0% 26.0%

Young Kim

Market Model 86.0% 81.5%

50.2K contracts

2026 Texas Senate matchup? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.1M contracts

Texas Republican Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

14.0M contracts

MA-06 Republican nominee? Kalshi

John Field

Market Model 0.0% 47.8%

Micah Jones

Market Model 0.0% 52.2%

0 contracts

VA-10 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Anthony Suttles

Market Model 0.0% 27.0%

Julie Perry

Market Model 0.0% 27.0%

0 contracts

Who will advance from the CA-22 primary? Kalshi

Jasmeet Bains

Market Model 61.0% 50.0%

Eric Garcia

Market Model 1.0% 0.3%

38.1K contracts

ND-AL Republican nominee? Kalshi

Alex Balazs

Market Model 5.0% 3.9%

Julie Fedorchak

Market Model 97.0% 92.0%

2.6K contracts

NY-05 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Alexandria Foxworth

Market Model 0.0% 53.1%

George Marsh

Market Model 0.0% 47.0%

0 contracts

Idaho Republican Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.1K contracts

Louisiana Democratic Senate nominee? Kalshi

Jamie Davis

Market Model 86.0% 85.0%

Gary Crockett

Market Model 2.0% 9.0%

17.2K contracts

AL-04 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Amanda Pusczek

Market Model 36.0% 73.8%

Shane Weaver

Market Model 9.3% 26.2%

4.4K contracts

Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory Kalshi

Spencer Pratt wins

Market Model 31.0% 23.1%

Karen Bass, 4-8%

Market Model 14.0% 19.5%

35.5K contracts

GA-10 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Ryan Millsap

Market Model 54.0% 46.5%

Houston Gaines

Market Model 46.0% 52.5%

27.8K contracts

NM-02 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Jose Orozco

Market Model 5.0% 80.0%

Greg Cunningham

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

1 contracts

IA-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Christina Bohannan

Market Model 96.0% 93.0%

Travis Terrell

Market Model 9.0% 7.0%

8.8K contracts

SD-AL Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Nikki Gronli

Market Model 97.0% 97.1%

Scott Schlagel

Market Model 4.0% 2.9%

28.1K contracts

Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? Kalshi

Dave Bronson

Market Model 35.0% 22.2%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Market Model 52.0% 39.6%

49.2K contracts

Louisiana Republican Senate primary: first round winner Kalshi

Julia Letlow

Market Model 67.0% 57.6%

John Fleming

Market Model 31.0% 35.3%

17.5K contracts

ID-01 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Russ Fulcher

Market Model 99.0% 99.8%

Joseph Morrison

Market Model 0.1% 0.1%

11.0K contracts

NE-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

49.3K contracts

2026 Republican Senate primaries combo Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

26.8K contracts

Georgia Republican Governor primary: first round margin of victory Kalshi

Burt Jones, 3-6%

Market Model 96.0% 34.6%

Rick Jackson, 6-9%

Market Model 23.0% 8.5%

1.7K contracts

CA-07 primary: first place Kalshi

Doris Matsui

Market Model 88.0% 77.2%

Mai Vang

Market Model 12.0% 14.4%

13.9K contracts

Michigan Senate Democratic primary: 2nd place Kalshi

Haley Stevens

Market Model 31.0% 30.6%

Mallory McMorrow

Market Model 31.0% 24.3%

4.4K contracts

CA-12 primary: first place Kalshi

Lateefah Simon

Market Model 91.0% 99.6%

Jamie Joyce

Market Model 0.0% 0.4%

18.1K contracts

TX-18 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Christian Menefee

Market Model 94.3% 95.6%

Al Green

Market Model 6.0% 4.4%

84.6K contracts

CA-03 primary: Who will advance? Kalshi

Robb Tucker

Market Model 69.0% 47.8%

Christine Bish

Market Model 22.0% 11.5%

33.2K contracts

NJ-08 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Robert Menendez Jr.

Market Model 89.0% 91.7%

Mussab Ali

Market Model 13.0% 8.3%

22.5K contracts

WV-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Brit Aguirre

Market Model 78.0% 89.1%

Vince George

Market Model 22.0% 10.9%

4.4K contracts

CA-47 primary: Who will advance? Kalshi

Christopher Gonzales

Market Model 7.5% 4.6%

Eric Troutman

Market Model 26.0% 13.6%

18.8K contracts

Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee? Kalshi

Diego Morales

Market Model 81.0% 47.9%

David Shelton

Market Model 91.0% 51.7%

25.2K contracts

CA-38 primary: Who will advance? Kalshi

Hilda Solis

Market Model 98.0% 98.1%

Monica Sanchez

Market Model 34.0% 18.4%

27.0K contracts

CA-32 primary: first place Kalshi

Brad Sherman

Market Model 96.0% 92.6%

Marena Lin

Market Model 8.0% 1.6%

7.3K contracts

KY-04 Republican primary: voter turnout Kalshi

Above 60k

Market Model 96.0% 96.0%

Above 90k

Market Model 52.0% 53.5%

20.5K contracts

2026 Democratic Senate primaries combo Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

121.0K contracts

Who will advance from the CA-11 primary? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 5.0% 1.1%

100.6K contracts

CA-25 primary: Who will advance? Kalshi

Ceci Truman

Market Model 28.0% 16.1%

Joe Males

Market Model 77.0% 69.9%

9.3K contracts

How many Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

108.5K contracts

TX-33 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Colin Allred

Market Model 79.0% 82.5%

Julie Johnson

Market Model 23.0% 17.5%

249.0K contracts

MI-11 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

7.8K contracts

West Virginia Democratic Senate nominee? Kalshi

Jeff Kessler

Market Model 87.0% 83.6%

Rachel Fetty Anderson

Market Model 2.0% 1.5%

19.2K contracts

Texas Republican Attorney General nominee? Kalshi

Chip Roy

Market Model 38.0% 29.5%

Mayes Middleton

Market Model 67.0% 70.5%

193.4K contracts

CA-30 primary: Who will advance? Kalshi

Laura Friedman

Market Model 99.1% 98.8%

Scott Meyers

Market Model 75.0% 67.3%

78.0K contracts

CA-14 primary: Who will advance? Kalshi

Rakhi Israni Singh

Market Model 49.0% 36.3%

Aisha Wahab

Market Model 98.8% 98.4%

75.9K contracts

CA-43 primary: Who will advance? Kalshi

Maxine Waters

Market Model 97.9% 98.0%

David Sedlik

Market Model 7.5% 2.9%

9.0K contracts

NJ-09 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Tiffany Burress

Market Model 10.0% 6.7%

Rosie Pino

Market Model 86.0% 93.3%

15.0K contracts

California Governor primary advancers? (Person) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 5.6% 2.0%

829.9K contracts

Ohio Republican Governor primary: voter turnout Kalshi

Above 1.0M

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

Above 900k

Market Model 3.0% 0.0%

106.6K contracts

TX-38 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Jon Bonck

Market Model 98.6% 97.8%

Shelly DeZevallos

Market Model 4.5% 2.2%

37.1K contracts

Georgia Democratic Lieutenant Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

16.7K contracts

Michigan Republican Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.8K contracts

CA-24 primary: Who will advance? Kalshi

Salud Carbajal

Market Model 95.8% 94.5%

Sarah Bacon

Market Model 7.1% 2.7%

10.9K contracts

ID-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Kaylee Peterson

Market Model 98.0% 96.1%

Ken Brungardt

Market Model 7.0% 3.9%

5.4K contracts

NV-02 Republican nominee? Kalshi

David Flippo

Market Model 53.0% 37.1%

James Settelmeyer

Market Model 52.0% 49.5%

11.4K contracts

MO-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

13.3K contracts

OR-03 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Maxine Dexter

Market Model 99.0% 88.4%

Jessica Salas

Market Model 9.0% 8.0%

9.3K contracts

DC Democratic House delegate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

7.0K contracts

Arizona Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

59.4K contracts

Georgia Democratic Attorney General nominee? Kalshi

Bob Trammell

Market Model 6.3% 18.0%

Tanya Miller

Market Model 99.0% 82.0%

12.6K contracts

Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee? Kalshi

Tim Walz

Market Model 1.6% 0.0%

Amy Klobuchar

Market Model 93.0% 78.9%

444.0K contracts

South Carolina Democratic Governor nominee? Kalshi

Billy Webster

Market Model 18.0% 16.2%

Jermaine Johnson

Market Model 72.0% 64.9%

2.6K contracts

New Mexico Democratic Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

33.5K contracts

NY-17 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

17.3K contracts

Kansas Democratic Senate nominee? Kalshi

Sharice Davids

Market Model 15.0% 15.6%

Noah Taylor

Market Model 17.0% 18.0%

26.4K contracts

ME-01 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Ronald Russell

Market Model 95.0% 87.0%

Joshua Pietrowicz

Market Model 33.0% 13.0%

1.0K contracts

OH-12 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Jerrad Christian

Market Model 95.3% 91.4%

Jason Reynard

Market Model 9.0% 8.6%

115 contracts

Colorado Democratic Governor nominee? Kalshi

Phil Weiser

Market Model 32.0% 26.1%

Michael Bennet

Market Model 73.0% 73.1%

32.1K contracts

Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

14.8K contracts

Margin of victory in the Maine Democratic Senate primary? Kalshi

Graham Platner, ≥50%

Market Model 20.0% 18.8%

Graham Platner, 30-40%

Market Model 20.0% 18.8%

4.7K contracts

Minnesota Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

115.7K contracts

Maine Democratic Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

42.6K contracts

NH-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.7K contracts

MT-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Ryan Busse

Market Model 56.0% 53.6%

Sam Forstag

Market Model 26.0% 33.5%

17.0K contracts

NY-07 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Antonio Reynoso

Market Model 24.0% 26.3%

Claire Valdez

Market Model 74.0% 66.2%

57.7K contracts

Rhode Island Republican Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.2K contracts

Tennessee Democratic Governor nominee? Kalshi

Jerri Green

Market Model 86.0% 76.7%

Adam Kurtz

Market Model 11.0% 11.3%

8.5K contracts

MA-06 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.5K contracts

NE-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Chris Backemeyer

Market Model 94.0% 94.2%

Eric Moyer

Market Model 8.0% 5.8%

1.7K contracts

Nevada Democratic Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

8.4K contracts

MD-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Adrian Boafo

Market Model 61.0% 38.4%

Rushern Baker III

Market Model 14.0% 7.7%

12.3K contracts

IN-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

J.D. Ford

Market Model 92.2% 87.2%

Jackson Franklin

Market Model 8.3% 8.2%

17.6K contracts

Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

67.2K contracts

South Carolina Republican Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

151.8K contracts

NY-08 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

33.3K contracts

Louisiana Republican Senate primary: margin of victory Kalshi

Bill Cassidy, 9%+

Market Model 1.0% 4.1%

Bill Cassidy, 3-6%

Market Model 1.0% 8.1%

39.5K contracts

Massachusetts Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Michael Minogue

Market Model 80.0% 93.4%

Brian Shortsleeve

Market Model 6.0% 5.9%

33.9K contracts

Michigan Democratic Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

43.6K contracts

MA-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Katherine Clark

Market Model 88.0% 99.8%

Jonathan Paz

Market Model 12.0% 0.1%

1.2K contracts

CA-04 primary advancers? Kalshi

Mike Thompson

Market Model 97.7% 97.4%

Eric Jones

Market Model 90.0% 93.0%

18.9K contracts

Maine Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

56.3K contracts

SC-06 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Jim Clyburn

Market Model 96.0% 99.0%

Frederick Goodwin

Market Model 9.0% 1.0%

911 contracts

PA-07 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Ryan Crosswell

Market Model 27.0% 32.7%

Bob Brooks

Market Model 71.0% 58.0%

32.5K contracts

Georgia Republican Lieutenant Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

8.1K contracts

Los Angeles mayor matchup Kalshi

Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass

Market Model 62.0% 53.5%

Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt

Market Model 17.0% 16.5%

9.3K contracts

Oklahoma Republican Lieutenant Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

14.6K contracts

NY-13 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Darializa Avila Chevalier

Market Model 47.0% 21.2%

Adriano Espaillat

Market Model 56.0% 55.1%

13.5K contracts

AZ-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.7K contracts

Alabama Republican Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

110.1K contracts

UT-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.8K contracts

NJ-12 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Adam Hamawy

Market Model 52.0% 26.4%

Sue Altman

Market Model 15.0% 9.1%

5.2K contracts

NY-15 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

16.2K contracts

Wyoming Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

12.5K contracts

Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

61.4K contracts

Louisiana Republican Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

154.4K contracts

GA-13 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Jasmine Clark

Market Model 79.0% 75.6%

Everton Blair Jr.

Market Model 18.0% 7.6%

6.9K contracts

PA-03 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

53.9K contracts

Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

8.7K contracts

MN-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

22.3K contracts

How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

342.3K contracts

Iowa Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

59.2K contracts

KY-06 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Cherlynn Stevenson

Market Model 47.0% 41.7%

Zach Dembo

Market Model 46.0% 31.8%

14.2K contracts

Voter turnout in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election? Kalshi

Above 1.2M

Market Model 99.5% 99.6%

Above 1.4M

Market Model 99.7% 99.4%

76.7K contracts

OH-09 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Derek Merrin

Market Model 86.0% 88.0%

Madison Sheahan

Market Model 0.3% 0.3%

34.7K contracts

UT-03 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Celeste Maloy

Market Model 70.0% 75.5%

Phil Lyman

Market Model 29.0% 24.5%

16.5K contracts

Georgia Republican Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

151.3K contracts

Iowa Democratic Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

45.0K contracts

NY-04 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

36.2K contracts

Michigan Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

159.8K contracts

Oregon Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Christine Drazan

Market Model 86.0% 78.3%

Chris Dudley

Market Model 5.0% 5.5%

78.6K contracts

Kentucky Republican Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

159.6K contracts

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

399.8K contracts

Georgia Democratic Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

182.1K contracts

Nebraska Republican Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.3K contracts

KY-04 Republican nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.2M contracts

Ohio Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

760.3K contracts

SC-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Nancy Lacore

Market Model 81.0% 69.2%

Mac Deford

Market Model 20.0% 24.7%

13.8K contracts

CA-28 primary: Who will advance? Kalshi

April Verlato

Market Model 94.7% 96.9%

Peter Roybal

Market Model 36.0% 11.5%

2.4K contracts

California Governor matchup? Kalshi

Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton

Market Model 93.0% 14.7%

Xavier Becerra vs. Tom Steyer

Market Model 7.0% 10.0%

209.3K contracts

LA-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi

Renada Collins

Market Model 4.0% 2.3%

Troy Carter

Market Model 95.2% 97.7%

118 contracts

Maine Democratic Senate nominee? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.6M contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
DE-AL Republican nominee? Top outcome: Joseph Arminio	99.0%	99.6%	High	—
Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Aaron Guckian	99.4%	99.5%	High	—
NH-01 Democratic primary: voter turnout Top outcome: ≥80,000	33.0%	33.2%	High	—
MA-01 Democratic primary: Richard Neal vote percent Top outcome: At least 55%	10.0%	0.0%	High	—
LA-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Lauren Jewett	16.0%	98.9%	High	—
Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory? (Mike Mazzei) Top outcome: Mike Mazzei, ≥6%	1.0%	0.1%	High	—
Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory? Top outcome: Gentner Drummond, 0-3%	1.0%	0.0%	High	—
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 325k	99.0%	100.0%	High	—
FL-19 Republican primary: Jim Schwartzel vote percent Top outcome: At least 35%	1.0%	0.0%	High	—
Florida Republican Governor primary: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 1.7M	17.0%	0.0%	High	—
FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent Top outcome: At least 50%	99.0%	99.9%	High	—
FL-07 Republican primary margin of victory? Top outcome: Ryan Elijah, 12-16%	97.0%	69.0%	High	—
Florida Republican Governor primary: Byron Donalds vote percent Top outcome: At least 55%	54.0%	35.0%	High	—
FL-20 Democratic primary: Debbie Wasserman Schultz vote percent Top outcome: At least 35%	81.0%	72.8%	Med	—
Alaska U.S. Senate primary: Mary Peltola vote percent Top outcome: At least 30%	99.0%	98.5%	High	—
Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner	—	—	High	—
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory (0.2% Brackets)	—	—	High	—
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory	—	—	High	—
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory	—	—	High	—
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?	—	—	Med	—
FL-06 Republican Primary Winner	—	—	High	—
Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner	—	—	High	—
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner	—	—	High	—
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? Top outcome: Darline Graham	86.0%	91.4%	Med	—
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary: Milwaukee County Winner	—	—	High	—
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner	—	—	Med	—
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner	—	—	High	—
Florida Republican Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent Top outcome: At least 1%	98.0%	96.8%	High	—
South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
Oklahoma Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jim Priest	11.0%	8.3%	High	—
South Carolina Republican Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
Georgia Republican Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
California Governor primary: 1st place Top outcome: Steve Hilton	0.8%	0.0%	High	—
SC-01 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Mark Smith	62.0%	60.9%	High	—
California Governor primary advancers? (Party) Top outcome: 1 Democrat and 1 Republican	87.0%	84.8%	Med	—
Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory Top outcome: Ken Paxton, 20%+	99.8%	99.9%	High	—
CO-02 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Christina Blunt	0.0%	46.9%	High	—
CA-40 primary advancers? Top outcome: Esther Kim Varet	39.0%	26.0%	Med	—
2026 Texas Senate matchup?	—	—	High	—
Texas Republican Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
MA-06 Republican nominee? Top outcome: John Field	0.0%	47.8%	High	—
VA-10 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Anthony Suttles	0.0%	27.0%	High	—
Who will advance from the CA-22 primary? Top outcome: Jasmeet Bains	61.0%	50.0%	Med	—
ND-AL Republican nominee? Top outcome: Alex Balazs	5.0%	3.9%	High	—
NY-05 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Alexandria Foxworth	0.0%	53.1%	High	—
Idaho Republican Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
Louisiana Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jamie Davis	86.0%	85.0%	High	—
AL-04 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Amanda Pusczek	36.0%	73.8%	High	—
Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory Top outcome: Spencer Pratt wins	31.0%	23.1%	High	—
GA-10 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Millsap	54.0%	46.5%	High	—
NM-02 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Jose Orozco	5.0%	80.0%	High	—
IA-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Christina Bohannan	96.0%	93.0%	High	—
SD-AL Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Nikki Gronli	97.0%	97.1%	High	—
Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? Top outcome: Dave Bronson	35.0%	22.2%	Med	—
Louisiana Republican Senate primary: first round winner Top outcome: Julia Letlow	67.0%	57.6%	High	—
ID-01 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Russ Fulcher	99.0%	99.8%	High	—
NE-02 Democratic nominee?	—	—	High	—
2026 Republican Senate primaries combo	—	—	Med	—
Georgia Republican Governor primary: first round margin of victory Top outcome: Burt Jones, 3-6%	96.0%	34.6%	High	—
CA-07 primary: first place Top outcome: Doris Matsui	88.0%	77.2%	High	—
Michigan Senate Democratic primary: 2nd place Top outcome: Haley Stevens	31.0%	30.6%	High	—
CA-12 primary: first place Top outcome: Lateefah Simon	91.0%	99.6%	High	—
TX-18 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Christian Menefee	94.3%	95.6%	High	—
CA-03 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Robb Tucker	69.0%	47.8%	Med	—
NJ-08 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Robert Menendez Jr.	89.0%	91.7%	High	—
WV-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Brit Aguirre	78.0%	89.1%	High	—
CA-47 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Christopher Gonzales	7.5%	4.6%	Med	—
Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee? Top outcome: Diego Morales	81.0%	47.9%	High	—
CA-38 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Hilda Solis	98.0%	98.1%	Med	—
CA-32 primary: first place Top outcome: Brad Sherman	96.0%	92.6%	High	—
KY-04 Republican primary: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 60k	96.0%	96.0%	High	—
2026 Democratic Senate primaries combo	—	—	Med	—
Who will advance from the CA-11 primary? Yes refers to: Marie Hurabiell	5.0%	1.1%	Med	—
CA-25 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Ceci Truman	28.0%	16.1%	Med	—
How many Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?	—	—	High	—
TX-33 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Colin Allred	79.0%	82.5%	High	—
MI-11 Democratic nominee?	—	—	High	—
West Virginia Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jeff Kessler	87.0%	83.6%	High	—
Texas Republican Attorney General nominee? Top outcome: Chip Roy	38.0%	29.5%	High	—
CA-30 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Laura Friedman	99.1%	98.8%	Med	—
CA-14 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Rakhi Israni Singh	49.0%	36.3%	Med	—
CA-43 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Maxine Waters	97.9%	98.0%	Med	—
NJ-09 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Tiffany Burress	10.0%	6.7%	High	—
California Governor primary advancers? (Person) Yes refers to: Matt Mahan	5.6%	2.0%	Med	—
Ohio Republican Governor primary: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 1.0M	1.0%	0.0%	High	—
TX-38 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Jon Bonck	98.6%	97.8%	High	—
Georgia Democratic Lieutenant Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
Michigan Republican Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
CA-24 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Salud Carbajal	95.8%	94.5%	Med	—
ID-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Kaylee Peterson	98.0%	96.1%	High	—
NV-02 Republican nominee? Top outcome: David Flippo	53.0%	37.1%	High	—
MO-01 Democratic nominee?	—	—	High	—
OR-03 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Maxine Dexter	99.0%	88.4%	High	—
DC Democratic House delegate nominee?	—	—	High	—
Arizona Republican Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
Georgia Democratic Attorney General nominee? Top outcome: Bob Trammell	6.3%	18.0%	High	—
Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Tim Walz	1.6%	0.0%	High	—
South Carolina Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Billy Webster	18.0%	16.2%	Med	—
New Mexico Democratic Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
NY-17 Democratic nominee?	—	—	High	—
Kansas Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Sharice Davids	15.0%	15.6%	High	—
ME-01 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Ronald Russell	95.0%	87.0%	High	—
OH-12 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jerrad Christian	95.3%	91.4%	High	—
Colorado Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Phil Weiser	32.0%	26.1%	High	—
Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
Margin of victory in the Maine Democratic Senate primary? Top outcome: Graham Platner, ≥50%	20.0%	18.8%	High	—
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
Maine Democratic Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
NH-01 Democratic nominee?	—	—	High	—
MT-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Busse	56.0%	53.6%	High	—
NY-07 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Antonio Reynoso	24.0%	26.3%	High	—
Rhode Island Republican Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
Tennessee Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Jerri Green	86.0%	76.7%	High	—
MA-06 Democratic nominee?	—	—	High	—
NE-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Chris Backemeyer	94.0%	94.2%	High	—
Nevada Democratic Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
MD-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Adrian Boafo	61.0%	38.4%	High	—
IN-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: J.D. Ford	92.2%	87.2%	Med	—
Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
South Carolina Republican Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
NY-08 Democratic nominee?	—	—	High	—
Louisiana Republican Senate primary: margin of victory Top outcome: Bill Cassidy, 9%+	1.0%	4.1%	Med	—
Massachusetts Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Michael Minogue	80.0%	93.4%	High	—
Michigan Democratic Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
MA-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Katherine Clark	88.0%	99.8%	High	—
CA-04 primary advancers? Top outcome: Mike Thompson	97.7%	97.4%	Med	—
Maine Republican Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
SC-06 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jim Clyburn	96.0%	99.0%	High	—
PA-07 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Crosswell	27.0%	32.7%	High	—
Georgia Republican Lieutenant Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
Los Angeles mayor matchup Top outcome: Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass	62.0%	53.5%	Med	—
Oklahoma Republican Lieutenant Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
NY-13 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Darializa Avila Chevalier	47.0%	21.2%	High	—
AZ-01 Democratic nominee?	—	—	High	—
Alabama Republican Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
UT-01 Democratic nominee?	—	—	High	—
NJ-12 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Adam Hamawy	52.0%	26.4%	Med	—
NY-15 Democratic nominee?	—	—	Med	—
Wyoming Republican Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
Louisiana Republican Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
GA-13 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jasmine Clark	79.0%	75.6%	High	—
PA-03 Democratic nominee?	—	—	High	—
Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
MN-02 Democratic nominee?	—	—	High	—
How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?	—	—	High	—
Iowa Republican Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
KY-06 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Cherlynn Stevenson	47.0%	41.7%	High	—
Voter turnout in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election? Top outcome: Above 1.2M	99.5%	99.6%	High	—
OH-09 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Derek Merrin	86.0%	88.0%	High	—
UT-03 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Celeste Maloy	70.0%	75.5%	High	—
Georgia Republican Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
Iowa Democratic Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
NY-04 Republican nominee?	—	—	High	—
Michigan Republican Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
Oregon Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Christine Drazan	86.0%	78.3%	High	—
Kentucky Republican Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
Nebraska Republican Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—
KY-04 Republican nominee?	—	—	Med	—
Ohio Republican Governor nominee?	—	—	High	—
SC-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Nancy Lacore	81.0%	69.2%	High	—
CA-28 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: April Verlato	94.7%	96.9%	Med	—
California Governor matchup? Top outcome: Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton	93.0%	14.7%	Med	—
LA-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Renada Collins	4.0%	2.3%	High	—
Maine Democratic Senate nominee?	—	—	High	—

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