Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Polymarket
Byron Donalds
Market Model 0.4% 0.5%
Mike Pence
Market Model 0.2% 50.0%
Primaries Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (4)
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Polymarket
Oprah Winfrey
Market Model 0.3% 0.4%
Bernie Sanders
Market Model 0.4% 0.5%
LA-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Lauren Jewett
Market Model 16.0% 98.9%
Jim Long
Market Model 0.3% 1.1%
LA-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Renada Collins
Market Model 4.0% 2.3%
Troy Carter
Market Model 95.2% 97.7%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Top outcome: Byron Donalds | 0.4% | 0.5% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Top outcome: Oprah Winfrey | 0.3% | 0.4% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| LA-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Lauren Jewett | 16.0% | 98.9% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| LA-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Renada Collins | 4.0% | 2.3% | High | 40 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (167)
DE-AL Republican nominee? Kalshi
Joseph Arminio
Market Model 99.0% 99.6%
John J. Whalen III
Market Model 1.0% 0.1%
Aaron Guckian
Market Model 99.4% 99.5%
Elaine Pelino
Market Model 0.4% 0.4%
≥80,000
Market Model 33.0% 33.2%
≥65,000
Market Model 99.0% 99.0%
At least 55%
Market Model 10.0% 0.0%
At least 70%
Market Model 5.0% 0.0%
Mike Mazzei, ≥6%
Market Model 1.0% 0.1%
Mike Mazzei, ≥3%
Market Model 1.0% 0.1%
Gentner Drummond, 0-3%
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
Mike Mazzei, 0-3%
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Above 325k
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Above 300k
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
At least 35%
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
At least 30%
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
Above 1.7M
Market Model 17.0% 0.0%
Above 1.45M
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
At least 50%
Market Model 99.0% 99.9%
At least 80%
Market Model 1.0% 0.1%
Ryan Elijah, 12-16%
Market Model 97.0% 69.0%
Ryan Elijah, ≥20%
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
At least 55%
Market Model 54.0% 35.0%
At least 60%
Market Model 31.0% 12.0%
At least 35%
Market Model 81.0% 72.8%
At least 40%
Market Model 80.0% 71.5%
At least 30%
Market Model 99.0% 98.5%
At least 50%
Market Model 85.0% 80.9%
Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Darline Graham
Market Model 86.0% 91.4%
Ralph Norman
Market Model 14.0% 5.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Francesca Hong
Market Model 90.2% 87.2%
David Crowley
Market Model 9.6% 10.2%
Yes
Market Model — —
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
James Fishback
Market Model 2.2% 2.7%
Jay Collins
Market Model 0.3% 0.5%
At least 1%
Market Model 98.0% 96.8%
At least 20%
Market Model 19.0% 12.8%
Toby Doeden
Market Model 11.0% 8.6%
Larry Rhoden
Market Model 89.0% 91.4%
Jim Priest
Market Model 11.0% 8.3%
N’Kiyla Thomas
Market Model 88.0% 91.7%
Pamela Evette
Market Model 14.0% 11.8%
Alan Wilson
Market Model 85.0% 88.2%
Burt Jones
Market Model 77.0% 69.4%
Rick Jackson
Market Model 24.0% 30.6%
Steve Hilton
Market Model 0.8% 0.0%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 99.3% 100.0%
SC-01 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Mark Smith
Market Model 62.0% 60.9%
Jenny Costa Honeycutt
Market Model 47.0% 39.1%
1 Democrat and 1 Republican
Market Model 87.0% 84.8%
2 Democrats
Market Model 17.0% 15.2%
Ken Paxton, 20%+
Market Model 99.8% 99.9%
Ken Paxton, 15-20%
Market Model 0.2% 0.0%
CO-02 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Christina Blunt
Market Model 0.0% 46.9%
Kelley Dennison
Market Model 0.0% 53.1%
CA-40 primary advancers? Kalshi
Esther Kim Varet
Market Model 39.0% 26.0%
Young Kim
Market Model 86.0% 81.5%
2026 Texas Senate matchup? Kalshi
Talarico vs. Paxton
Market Model 93.4% 94.0%
Talarico vs. Cornyn
Market Model 6.0% 6.0%
Ken Paxton
Market Model 93.9% 95.8%
John Cornyn
Market Model 6.7% 4.2%
MA-06 Republican nominee? Kalshi
John Field
Market Model 0.0% 47.8%
Micah Jones
Market Model 0.0% 52.2%
VA-10 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Anthony Suttles
Market Model 0.0% 27.0%
Julie Perry
Market Model 0.0% 27.0%
Randy Villegas
Market Model 44.0% 31.0%
Rudy Salas
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
ND-AL Republican nominee? Kalshi
Alex Balazs
Market Model 5.0% 3.9%
Julie Fedorchak
Market Model 97.0% 92.0%
NY-05 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Alexandria Foxworth
Market Model 0.0% 53.1%
George Marsh
Market Model 0.0% 47.0%
Jim Risch
Market Model 97.2% 96.8%
Joe Evans
Market Model 3.8% 3.2%
Jamie Davis
Market Model 86.0% 85.0%
Gary Crockett
Market Model 2.0% 9.0%
AL-04 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Amanda Pusczek
Market Model 36.0% 73.8%
Shane Weaver
Market Model 9.3% 26.2%
Spencer Pratt wins
Market Model 31.0% 23.1%
Karen Bass, 4-8%
Market Model 14.0% 19.5%
GA-10 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Ryan Millsap
Market Model 54.0% 46.5%
Houston Gaines
Market Model 46.0% 52.5%
NM-02 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Jose Orozco
Market Model 5.0% 80.0%
Greg Cunningham
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
IA-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Christina Bohannan
Market Model 96.0% 93.0%
Travis Terrell
Market Model 9.0% 7.0%
SD-AL Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Nikki Gronli
Market Model 97.0% 97.1%
Scott Schlagel
Market Model 4.0% 2.9%
Dave Bronson
Market Model 35.0% 22.2%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Market Model 52.0% 39.6%
Julia Letlow
Market Model 67.0% 57.6%
John Fleming
Market Model 31.0% 35.3%
ID-01 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Russ Fulcher
Market Model 99.0% 99.8%
Joseph Morrison
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
NE-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
John Cavanaugh
Market Model 60.0% 60.5%
Denise Powell
Market Model 41.0% 38.2%
Yes
Market Model 52.0% 56.0%
Burt Jones, 3-6%
Market Model 96.0% 34.6%
Rick Jackson, 6-9%
Market Model 23.0% 8.5%
CA-07 primary: first place Kalshi
Doris Matsui
Market Model 88.0% 77.2%
Mai Vang
Market Model 12.0% 14.4%
Haley Stevens
Market Model 31.0% 30.6%
Mallory McMorrow
Market Model 31.0% 24.3%
CA-12 primary: first place Kalshi
Lateefah Simon
Market Model 91.0% 99.6%
Jamie Joyce
Market Model 0.0% 0.4%
TX-18 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Christian Menefee
Market Model 94.3% 95.6%
Al Green
Market Model 6.0% 4.4%
Robb Tucker
Market Model 69.0% 47.8%
Christine Bish
Market Model 22.0% 11.5%
NJ-08 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Robert Menendez Jr.
Market Model 89.0% 91.7%
Mussab Ali
Market Model 13.0% 8.3%
WV-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Brit Aguirre
Market Model 78.0% 89.1%
Vince George
Market Model 22.0% 10.9%
Christopher Gonzales
Market Model 7.5% 4.6%
Eric Troutman
Market Model 26.0% 13.6%
Diego Morales
Market Model 81.0% 47.9%
David Shelton
Market Model 91.0% 51.7%
Hilda Solis
Market Model 98.0% 98.1%
Monica Sanchez
Market Model 34.0% 18.4%
CA-32 primary: first place Kalshi
Brad Sherman
Market Model 96.0% 92.6%
Marena Lin
Market Model 8.0% 1.6%
Above 60k
Market Model 96.0% 96.0%
Above 90k
Market Model 52.0% 53.5%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 22.0%
Scott Wiener
Market Model 94.3% 91.9%
Saikat Chakrabarti
Market Model 79.0% 69.7%
Ceci Truman
Market Model 28.0% 16.1%
Joe Males
Market Model 77.0% 69.9%
0
Market Model 79.0% 76.7%
1
Market Model 19.0% 14.4%
TX-33 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Colin Allred
Market Model 79.0% 82.5%
Julie Johnson
Market Model 23.0% 17.5%
MI-11 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Jeremy Moss
Market Model 93.0% 88.5%
Dave Woodward
Market Model 0.6% 0.5%
Jeff Kessler
Market Model 87.0% 83.6%
Rachel Fetty Anderson
Market Model 2.0% 1.5%
Chip Roy
Market Model 38.0% 29.5%
Mayes Middleton
Market Model 67.0% 70.5%
Laura Friedman
Market Model 99.1% 98.8%
Scott Meyers
Market Model 75.0% 67.3%
Rakhi Israni Singh
Market Model 49.0% 36.3%
Aisha Wahab
Market Model 98.8% 98.4%
Maxine Waters
Market Model 97.9% 98.0%
David Sedlik
Market Model 7.5% 2.9%
NJ-09 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Tiffany Burress
Market Model 10.0% 6.7%
Rosie Pino
Market Model 86.0% 93.3%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 62.0% 51.2%
Matt Mahan
Market Model 5.6% 2.0%
Above 1.0M
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
Above 900k
Market Model 3.0% 0.0%
TX-38 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Jon Bonck
Market Model 98.6% 97.8%
Shelly DeZevallos
Market Model 4.5% 2.2%
Yes
Market Model — —
Mike Rogers
Market Model 99.0% 93.4%
Kent Benham
Market Model 1.0% 0.8%
Salud Carbajal
Market Model 95.8% 94.5%
Sarah Bacon
Market Model 7.1% 2.7%
ID-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Kaylee Peterson
Market Model 98.0% 96.1%
Ken Brungardt
Market Model 7.0% 3.9%
NV-02 Republican nominee? Kalshi
David Flippo
Market Model 53.0% 37.1%
James Settelmeyer
Market Model 52.0% 49.5%
MO-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Cori Bush
Market Model 37.0% 31.2%
Wesley Bell
Market Model 68.0% 68.8%
OR-03 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Maxine Dexter
Market Model 99.0% 88.4%
Jessica Salas
Market Model 9.0% 8.0%
Robert White
Market Model 59.0% 44.3%
Brooke Pinto
Market Model 27.0% 23.4%
Andy Biggs
Market Model 96.9% 65.9%
Karrin Taylor Robson
Market Model 1.0% 21.0%
Bob Trammell
Market Model 6.3% 18.0%
Tanya Miller
Market Model 99.0% 82.0%
Tim Walz
Market Model 1.6% 0.0%
Amy Klobuchar
Market Model 93.0% 78.9%
Billy Webster
Market Model 18.0% 16.2%
Jermaine Johnson
Market Model 72.0% 64.9%
Sam Bregman
Market Model 13.0% 11.1%
Deb Haaland
Market Model 86.0% 87.1%
NY-17 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Beth Davidson
Market Model 43.0% 28.8%
Cait Conley
Market Model 50.0% 33.0%
Sharice Davids
Market Model 15.0% 15.6%
Noah Taylor
Market Model 17.0% 18.0%
ME-01 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Ronald Russell
Market Model 95.0% 87.0%
Joshua Pietrowicz
Market Model 33.0% 13.0%
OH-12 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Jerrad Christian
Market Model 95.3% 91.4%
Jason Reynard
Market Model 9.0% 8.6%
Phil Weiser
Market Model 32.0% 26.1%
Michael Bennet
Market Model 73.0% 73.1%
Amy McGrath
Market Model 12.0% 11.5%
Charles Booker
Market Model 87.0% 83.2%
Graham Platner, ≥50%
Market Model 20.0% 18.8%
Graham Platner, 30-40%
Market Model 20.0% 18.8%
Mike Lindell
Market Model 15.0% 15.5%
Lisa Demuth
Market Model 63.0% 62.5%
Nirav Shah
Market Model 21.0% 29.7%
Troy Jackson
Market Model 4.4% 22.1%
NH-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Stefany Shaheen
Market Model 61.0% 62.8%
Maura Sullivan
Market Model 35.0% 28.1%
MT-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Ryan Busse
Market Model 56.0% 53.6%
Sam Forstag
Market Model 26.0% 33.5%
NY-07 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Antonio Reynoso
Market Model 24.0% 26.3%
Claire Valdez
Market Model 74.0% 66.2%
Allen Waters
Market Model 7.0% 3.4%
Raymond McKay
Market Model 87.0% 96.6%
Jerri Green
Market Model 86.0% 76.7%
Adam Kurtz
Market Model 11.0% 11.3%
MA-06 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Dan Koh
Market Model 79.0% 76.2%
Seth Moulton
Market Model 3.0% 15.9%
NE-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Chris Backemeyer
Market Model 94.0% 94.2%
Eric Moyer
Market Model 8.0% 5.8%
Aaron Ford
Market Model 98.1% 96.3%
Steve Sisolak
Market Model 1.7% 1.8%
MD-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Adrian Boafo
Market Model 61.0% 38.4%
Rushern Baker III
Market Model 14.0% 7.7%
IN-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
J.D. Ford
Market Model 92.2% 87.2%
Jackson Franklin
Market Model 8.3% 8.2%
Mike Mazzei
Market Model 28.0% 23.5%
Gentner Drummond
Market Model 52.0% 38.0%
Lindsey Graham
Market Model 87.0% 86.2%
Paul Dans
Market Model 1.0% 0.1%
NY-08 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Chi Ossé
Market Model 7.2% 5.2%
Hakeem Jeffries
Market Model 97.5% 88.0%
Bill Cassidy, 9%+
Market Model 1.0% 4.1%
Bill Cassidy, 3-6%
Market Model 1.0% 8.1%
Michael Minogue
Market Model 80.0% 93.4%
Brian Shortsleeve
Market Model 6.0% 5.9%
Jocelyn Benson
Market Model 89.0% 92.5%
Chris Swanson
Market Model 6.7% 6.8%
MA-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Katherine Clark
Market Model 88.0% 99.8%
Jonathan Paz
Market Model 12.0% 0.1%
CA-04 primary advancers? Kalshi
Mike Thompson
Market Model 97.7% 97.4%
Eric Jones
Market Model 90.0% 93.0%
Laurel Libby
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Jonathan Bush
Market Model 23.0% 22.9%
SC-06 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Jim Clyburn
Market Model 96.0% 99.0%
Frederick Goodwin
Market Model 9.0% 1.0%
PA-07 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Ryan Crosswell
Market Model 27.0% 32.7%
Bob Brooks
Market Model 71.0% 58.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Los Angeles mayor matchup Kalshi
Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass
Market Model 62.0% 53.5%
Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt
Market Model 17.0% 16.5%
T.W. Shannon
Market Model 89.0% 86.2%
Cindy Byrd
Market Model 2.0% 1.6%
NY-13 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Darializa Avila Chevalier
Market Model 47.0% 21.2%
Adriano Espaillat
Market Model 56.0% 55.1%
AZ-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Amish Shah
Market Model 72.0% 69.3%
Marlene Galán-Woods
Market Model 2.0% 2.1%
Barry Moore
Market Model 90.1% 78.1%
Jared Hudson
Market Model 9.9% 16.7%
UT-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Ben McAdams
Market Model 76.0% 85.8%
Nate Blouin
Market Model 24.0% 8.3%
NJ-12 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Adam Hamawy
Market Model 52.0% 26.4%
Sue Altman
Market Model 15.0% 9.1%
NY-15 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Michael Blake
Market Model 15.0% 3.1%
Ritchie Torres
Market Model 85.0% 90.4%
Megan Degenfelder
Market Model 77.0% 77.5%
Eric Barlow
Market Model 28.0% 18.3%
Angie Craig
Market Model 26.0% 18.4%
Peggy Flanagan
Market Model 76.0% 72.8%
Julia Letlow
Market Model 62.0% 61.2%
John Fleming
Market Model 39.0% 26.5%
GA-13 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Jasmine Clark
Market Model 79.0% 75.6%
Everton Blair Jr.
Market Model 18.0% 7.6%
PA-03 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Chris Rabb
Market Model 38.0% 39.2%
Sharif Street
Market Model 63.0% 40.3%
Dan McKee
Market Model 29.0% 19.9%
Helena Foulkes
Market Model 70.0% 79.1%
MN-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Matt Little
Market Model 69.0% 76.4%
Matt Klein
Market Model 12.0% 14.4%
4 or more
Market Model 12.0% 11.3%
2
Market Model 41.0% 38.7%
Randy Feenstra
Market Model 74.0% 69.3%
Zach Lahn
Market Model 17.0% 9.1%
KY-06 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Cherlynn Stevenson
Market Model 47.0% 41.7%
Zach Dembo
Market Model 46.0% 31.8%
Above 1.2M
Market Model 99.5% 99.6%
Above 1.4M
Market Model 99.7% 99.4%
OH-09 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Derek Merrin
Market Model 86.0% 88.0%
Madison Sheahan
Market Model 0.3% 0.3%
UT-03 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Celeste Maloy
Market Model 70.0% 75.5%
Phil Lyman
Market Model 29.0% 24.5%
Mike Collins
Market Model 87.0% 61.5%
Brian Kemp
Market Model 1.0% 0.4%
Zach Wahls
Market Model 22.0% 32.7%
Josh Turek
Market Model 75.0% 65.1%
NY-04 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Anthony D’Esposito
Market Model 0.4% 20.0%
Don Clavin
Market Model 3.6% 1.0%
Perry Johnson
Market Model 56.0% 41.8%
John James
Market Model 39.0% 36.8%
Christine Drazan
Market Model 86.0% 78.3%
Chris Dudley
Market Model 5.0% 5.5%
Andy Barr
Market Model 95.1% 72.8%
Nate Morris
Market Model 0.9% 6.9%
Abdul El-Sayed
Market Model 51.0% 36.4%
Haley Stevens
Market Model 21.0% 26.3%
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Market Model 86.0% 68.5%
Michael Thurmond
Market Model 13.0% 14.0%
Pete Ricketts
Market Model 96.0% 98.9%
Edward Dunn
Market Model 2.5% 1.1%
KY-04 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Thomas Massie
Market Model 44.0% 71.9%
Ed Gallrein
Market Model 58.0% 27.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
Market Model 98.2% 95.3%
Casey Putsch
Market Model 2.7% 3.0%
SC-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Nancy Lacore
Market Model 81.0% 69.2%
Mac Deford
Market Model 20.0% 24.7%
April Verlato
Market Model 94.7% 96.9%
Peter Roybal
Market Model 36.0% 11.5%
California Governor matchup? Kalshi
Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton
Market Model 93.0% 14.7%
Xavier Becerra vs. Tom Steyer
Market Model 7.0% 10.0%
Graham Platner
Market Model 98.2% 81.8%
Janet Mills
Market Model 1.4% 13.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE-AL Republican nominee? Top outcome: Joseph Arminio | 99.0% | 99.6% | High | — | |
| Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Aaron Guckian | 99.4% | 99.5% | High | — | |
| NH-01 Democratic primary: voter turnout Top outcome: ≥80,000 | 33.0% | 33.2% | High | — | |
| MA-01 Democratic primary: Richard Neal vote percent Top outcome: At least 55% | 10.0% | 0.0% | High | — | |
| Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory? (Mike Mazzei) Top outcome: Mike Mazzei, ≥6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | High | — | |
| Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory? Top outcome: Gentner Drummond, 0-3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | High | — | |
| South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 325k | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | — | |
| FL-19 Republican primary: Jim Schwartzel vote percent Top outcome: At least 35% | 1.0% | 0.0% | High | — | |
| Florida Republican Governor primary: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 1.7M | 17.0% | 0.0% | High | — | |
| FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent Top outcome: At least 50% | 99.0% | 99.9% | High | — | |
| FL-07 Republican primary margin of victory? Top outcome: Ryan Elijah, 12-16% | 97.0% | 69.0% | High | — | |
| Florida Republican Governor primary: Byron Donalds vote percent Top outcome: At least 55% | 54.0% | 35.0% | High | — | |
| FL-20 Democratic primary: Debbie Wasserman Schultz vote percent Top outcome: At least 35% | 81.0% | 72.8% | Med | — | |
| Alaska U.S. Senate primary: Mary Peltola vote percent Top outcome: At least 30% | 99.0% | 98.5% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? Top outcome: Darline Graham | 86.0% | 91.4% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Francesca Hong | 90.2% | 87.2% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Florida Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: James Fishback | 2.2% | 2.7% | High | — | |
| Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent Top outcome: At least 1% | 98.0% | 96.8% | High | — | |
| South Dakota Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Toby Doeden | 11.0% | 8.6% | High | — | |
| Oklahoma Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jim Priest | 11.0% | 8.3% | High | — | |
| South Carolina Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Pamela Evette | 14.0% | 11.8% | High | — | |
| Georgia Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Burt Jones | 77.0% | 69.4% | High | — | |
| California Governor primary: 1st place Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 0.8% | 0.0% | High | — | |
| SC-01 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Mark Smith | 62.0% | 60.9% | High | — | |
| California Governor primary advancers? (Party) Top outcome: 1 Democrat and 1 Republican | 87.0% | 84.8% | Med | — | |
| Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory Top outcome: Ken Paxton, 20%+ | 99.8% | 99.9% | High | — | |
| CO-02 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Christina Blunt | 0.0% | 46.9% | High | — | |
| CA-40 primary advancers? Top outcome: Esther Kim Varet | 39.0% | 26.0% | Med | — | |
| 2026 Texas Senate matchup? Top outcome: Talarico vs. Paxton | 93.4% | 94.0% | High | — | |
| Texas Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Ken Paxton | 93.9% | 95.8% | High | — | |
| MA-06 Republican nominee? Top outcome: John Field | 0.0% | 47.8% | High | — | |
| VA-10 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Anthony Suttles | 0.0% | 27.0% | High | — | |
| Who will advance from the CA-22 primary? Top outcome: Randy Villegas | 44.0% | 31.0% | Med | — | |
| ND-AL Republican nominee? Top outcome: Alex Balazs | 5.0% | 3.9% | High | — | |
| NY-05 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Alexandria Foxworth | 0.0% | 53.1% | High | — | |
| Idaho Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jim Risch | 97.2% | 96.8% | High | — | |
| Louisiana Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jamie Davis | 86.0% | 85.0% | High | — | |
| AL-04 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Amanda Pusczek | 36.0% | 73.8% | High | — | |
| Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory Top outcome: Spencer Pratt wins | 31.0% | 23.1% | High | — | |
| GA-10 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Millsap | 54.0% | 46.5% | High | — | |
| NM-02 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Jose Orozco | 5.0% | 80.0% | High | — | |
| IA-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Christina Bohannan | 96.0% | 93.0% | High | — | |
| SD-AL Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Nikki Gronli | 97.0% | 97.1% | High | — | |
| Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? Top outcome: Dave Bronson | 35.0% | 22.2% | Med | — | |
| Louisiana Republican Senate primary: first round winner Top outcome: Julia Letlow | 67.0% | 57.6% | High | — | |
| ID-01 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Russ Fulcher | 99.0% | 99.8% | High | — | |
| NE-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: John Cavanaugh | 60.0% | 60.5% | High | — | |
| 2026 Republican Senate primaries combo Yes refers to: Yes | 52.0% | 56.0% | Med | — | |
| Georgia Republican Governor primary: first round margin of victory Top outcome: Burt Jones, 3-6% | 96.0% | 34.6% | High | — | |
| CA-07 primary: first place Top outcome: Doris Matsui | 88.0% | 77.2% | High | — | |
| Michigan Senate Democratic primary: 2nd place Top outcome: Haley Stevens | 31.0% | 30.6% | High | — | |
| CA-12 primary: first place Top outcome: Lateefah Simon | 91.0% | 99.6% | High | — | |
| TX-18 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Christian Menefee | 94.3% | 95.6% | High | — | |
| CA-03 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Robb Tucker | 69.0% | 47.8% | Med | — | |
| NJ-08 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Robert Menendez Jr. | 89.0% | 91.7% | High | — | |
| WV-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Brit Aguirre | 78.0% | 89.1% | High | — | |
| CA-47 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Christopher Gonzales | 7.5% | 4.6% | Med | — | |
| Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee? Top outcome: Diego Morales | 81.0% | 47.9% | High | — | |
| CA-38 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Hilda Solis | 98.0% | 98.1% | Med | — | |
| CA-32 primary: first place Top outcome: Brad Sherman | 96.0% | 92.6% | High | — | |
| KY-04 Republican primary: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 60k | 96.0% | 96.0% | High | — | |
| 2026 Democratic Senate primaries combo Yes refers to: Yes | 17.0% | 22.0% | Med | — | |
| Who will advance from the CA-11 primary? Top outcome: Scott Wiener | 94.3% | 91.9% | Med | — | |
| CA-25 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Ceci Truman | 28.0% | 16.1% | Med | — | |
| How many Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026? Top outcome: 0 | 79.0% | 76.7% | High | — | |
| TX-33 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Colin Allred | 79.0% | 82.5% | High | — | |
| MI-11 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jeremy Moss | 93.0% | 88.5% | High | — | |
| West Virginia Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jeff Kessler | 87.0% | 83.6% | High | — | |
| Texas Republican Attorney General nominee? Top outcome: Chip Roy | 38.0% | 29.5% | High | — | |
| CA-30 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Laura Friedman | 99.1% | 98.8% | Med | — | |
| CA-14 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Rakhi Israni Singh | 49.0% | 36.3% | Med | — | |
| CA-43 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Maxine Waters | 97.9% | 98.0% | Med | — | |
| NJ-09 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Tiffany Burress | 10.0% | 6.7% | High | — | |
| California Governor primary advancers? (Person) Top outcome: Xavier Becerra | 62.0% | 51.2% | Med | — | |
| Ohio Republican Governor primary: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 1.0M | 1.0% | 0.0% | High | — | |
| TX-38 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Jon Bonck | 98.6% | 97.8% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Michigan Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Mike Rogers | 99.0% | 93.4% | High | — | |
| CA-24 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Salud Carbajal | 95.8% | 94.5% | Med | — | |
| ID-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Kaylee Peterson | 98.0% | 96.1% | High | — | |
| NV-02 Republican nominee? Top outcome: David Flippo | 53.0% | 37.1% | High | — | |
| MO-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Cori Bush | 37.0% | 31.2% | High | — | |
| OR-03 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Maxine Dexter | 99.0% | 88.4% | High | — | |
| DC Democratic House delegate nominee? Top outcome: Robert White | 59.0% | 44.3% | High | — | |
| Arizona Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Andy Biggs | 96.9% | 65.9% | High | — | |
| Georgia Democratic Attorney General nominee? Top outcome: Bob Trammell | 6.3% | 18.0% | High | — | |
| Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Tim Walz | 1.6% | 0.0% | High | — | |
| South Carolina Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Billy Webster | 18.0% | 16.2% | Med | — | |
| New Mexico Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Sam Bregman | 13.0% | 11.1% | High | — | |
| NY-17 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Beth Davidson | 43.0% | 28.8% | High | — | |
| Kansas Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Sharice Davids | 15.0% | 15.6% | High | — | |
| ME-01 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Ronald Russell | 95.0% | 87.0% | High | — | |
| OH-12 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jerrad Christian | 95.3% | 91.4% | High | — | |
| Colorado Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Phil Weiser | 32.0% | 26.1% | High | — | |
| Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Amy McGrath | 12.0% | 11.5% | High | — | |
| Margin of victory in the Maine Democratic Senate primary? Top outcome: Graham Platner, ≥50% | 20.0% | 18.8% | High | — | |
| Minnesota Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Mike Lindell | 15.0% | 15.5% | High | — | |
| Maine Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Nirav Shah | 21.0% | 29.7% | High | — | |
| NH-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Stefany Shaheen | 61.0% | 62.8% | High | — | |
| MT-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Busse | 56.0% | 53.6% | High | — | |
| NY-07 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Antonio Reynoso | 24.0% | 26.3% | High | — | |
| Rhode Island Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Allen Waters | 7.0% | 3.4% | High | — | |
| Tennessee Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Jerri Green | 86.0% | 76.7% | High | — | |
| MA-06 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Dan Koh | 79.0% | 76.2% | High | — | |
| NE-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Chris Backemeyer | 94.0% | 94.2% | High | — | |
| Nevada Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Aaron Ford | 98.1% | 96.3% | High | — | |
| MD-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Adrian Boafo | 61.0% | 38.4% | High | — | |
| IN-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: J.D. Ford | 92.2% | 87.2% | Med | — | |
| Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Mike Mazzei | 28.0% | 23.5% | High | — | |
| South Carolina Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Lindsey Graham | 87.0% | 86.2% | High | — | |
| NY-08 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Chi Ossé | 7.2% | 5.2% | High | — | |
| Louisiana Republican Senate primary: margin of victory Top outcome: Bill Cassidy, 9%+ | 1.0% | 4.1% | Med | — | |
| Massachusetts Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Michael Minogue | 80.0% | 93.4% | High | — | |
| Michigan Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Jocelyn Benson | 89.0% | 92.5% | High | — | |
| MA-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Katherine Clark | 88.0% | 99.8% | High | — | |
| CA-04 primary advancers? Top outcome: Mike Thompson | 97.7% | 97.4% | Med | — | |
| Maine Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Laurel Libby | 1.0% | 0.6% | High | — | |
| SC-06 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jim Clyburn | 96.0% | 99.0% | High | — | |
| PA-07 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Crosswell | 27.0% | 32.7% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Los Angeles mayor matchup Top outcome: Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass | 62.0% | 53.5% | Med | — | |
| Oklahoma Republican Lieutenant Governor nominee? Top outcome: T.W. Shannon | 89.0% | 86.2% | High | — | |
| NY-13 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Darializa Avila Chevalier | 47.0% | 21.2% | High | — | |
| AZ-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Amish Shah | 72.0% | 69.3% | High | — | |
| Alabama Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Barry Moore | 90.1% | 78.1% | High | — | |
| UT-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ben McAdams | 76.0% | 85.8% | High | — | |
| NJ-12 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Adam Hamawy | 52.0% | 26.4% | Med | — | |
| NY-15 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Michael Blake | 15.0% | 3.1% | Med | — | |
| Wyoming Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Megan Degenfelder | 77.0% | 77.5% | High | — | |
| Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Angie Craig | 26.0% | 18.4% | High | — | |
| Louisiana Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Julia Letlow | 62.0% | 61.2% | High | — | |
| GA-13 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jasmine Clark | 79.0% | 75.6% | High | — | |
| PA-03 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Chris Rabb | 38.0% | 39.2% | High | — | |
| Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Dan McKee | 29.0% | 19.9% | High | — | |
| MN-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Matt Little | 69.0% | 76.4% | High | — | |
| How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026? Top outcome: 4 or more | 12.0% | 11.3% | High | — | |
| Iowa Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Randy Feenstra | 74.0% | 69.3% | High | — | |
| KY-06 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Cherlynn Stevenson | 47.0% | 41.7% | High | — | |
| Voter turnout in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election? Top outcome: Above 1.2M | 99.5% | 99.6% | High | — | |
| OH-09 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Derek Merrin | 86.0% | 88.0% | High | — | |
| UT-03 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Celeste Maloy | 70.0% | 75.5% | High | — | |
| Georgia Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Mike Collins | 87.0% | 61.5% | High | — | |
| Iowa Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Zach Wahls | 22.0% | 32.7% | High | — | |
| NY-04 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Anthony D’Esposito | 0.4% | 20.0% | High | — | |
| Michigan Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Perry Johnson | 56.0% | 41.8% | High | — | |
| Oregon Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Christine Drazan | 86.0% | 78.3% | High | — | |
| Kentucky Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Andy Barr | 95.1% | 72.8% | High | — | |
| Michigan Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Abdul El-Sayed | 51.0% | 36.4% | High | — | |
| Georgia Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Keisha Lance Bottoms | 86.0% | 68.5% | High | — | |
| Nebraska Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Pete Ricketts | 96.0% | 98.9% | High | — | |
| KY-04 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Thomas Massie | 44.0% | 71.9% | Med | — | |
| Ohio Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Vivek Ramaswamy | 98.2% | 95.3% | High | — | |
| SC-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Nancy Lacore | 81.0% | 69.2% | High | — | |
| CA-28 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: April Verlato | 94.7% | 96.9% | Med | — | |
| California Governor matchup? Top outcome: Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton | 93.0% | 14.7% | Med | — | |
| Maine Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Graham Platner | 98.2% | 81.8% | High | — |
