Topic tracker · Elections
Who will advance in the CA primary?
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 12 so far (0 live, 12 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Who will advance in the CA primary? markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated May 8, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-07 primary: first place | November 3, 2027 | 77.2% vs 88.0% | Report → |
| CA-12 primary: first place | November 3, 2027 | 99.6% vs 91.0% | Report → |
| CA-03 primary: Who will advance? | November 3, 2027 | 85.4% vs 92.2% | Report → |
| CA-47 primary: Who will advance? | November 3, 2027 | 98.7% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| CA-38 primary: Who will advance? | November 3, 2027 | 18.4% vs 34.0% | Report → |
| CA-32 primary: first place | November 3, 2027 | 92.6% vs 96.0% | Report → |
| CA-25 primary: Who will advance? | November 3, 2027 | 97.4% vs 96.9% | Report → |
| CA-30 primary: Who will advance? | November 3, 2027 | 98.8% vs 99.1% | Report → |
| CA-14 primary: Who will advance? | November 3, 2027 | 1.4% vs 4.1% | Report → |
| CA-43 primary: Who will advance? | November 3, 2027 | 98.0% vs 97.9% | Report → |
| CA-24 primary: Who will advance? | November 3, 2027 | 2.7% vs 7.1% | Report → |
| CA-28 primary: Who will advance? | November 3, 2027 | 93.4% vs 95.0% | Report → |
