CA-07 primary: first place Kalshi
Doris Matsui
Market Model 88.0% 77.2%
Mai Vang
Market Model 12.0% 14.4%
Topic tracker · Elections
Who will advance in the CA primary?
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 12 so far (12 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Who will advance in the CA primary? markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated May 8, 2026
Live markets
CA-12 primary: first place Kalshi
Lateefah Simon
Market Model 91.0% 99.6%
Jamie Joyce
Market Model 0.0% 0.4%
Robb Tucker
Market Model 69.0% 47.8%
Christine Bish
Market Model 22.0% 11.5%
Christopher Gonzales
Market Model 7.5% 4.6%
Eric Troutman
Market Model 26.0% 13.6%
Hilda Solis
Market Model 98.0% 98.1%
Monica Sanchez
Market Model 34.0% 18.4%
CA-32 primary: first place Kalshi
Brad Sherman
Market Model 96.0% 92.6%
Marena Lin
Market Model 8.0% 1.6%
Ceci Truman
Market Model 28.0% 16.1%
Joe Males
Market Model 77.0% 69.9%
Laura Friedman
Market Model 99.1% 98.8%
Scott Meyers
Market Model 75.0% 67.3%
Rakhi Israni Singh
Market Model 49.0% 36.3%
Aisha Wahab
Market Model 98.8% 98.4%
Maxine Waters
Market Model 97.9% 98.0%
David Sedlik
Market Model 7.5% 2.9%
Salud Carbajal
Market Model 95.8% 94.5%
Sarah Bacon
Market Model 7.1% 2.7%
April Verlato
Market Model 94.7% 96.9%
Peter Roybal
Market Model 36.0% 11.5%
