Topic tracker · Elections
Vote percentages in primaries
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 7 so far (0 live, 7 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Vote percentages in primaries markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated September 2, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA-01 Democratic primary: Richard Neal vote percent | September 1, 2027 | 0.0% vs 10.0% | Report → |
| FL-19 Republican primary: Jim Schwartzel vote percent | August 18, 2027 | 0.0% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent | August 18, 2027 | 99.9% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Florida Republican Governor primary: Byron Donalds vote percent | August 18, 2027 | 35.0% vs 54.0% | Report → |
| FL-20 Democratic primary: Debbie Wasserman Schultz vote percent | August 18, 2027 | 72.8% vs 81.0% | Report → |
| Alaska U.S. Senate primary: Mary Peltola vote percent | August 18, 2027 | 98.5% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent | August 18, 2027 | 96.8% vs 98.0% | Report → |
