Topic tracker · Elections

Vote percentages in primaries

Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 5 so far (5 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Vote percentages in primaries markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.

Last updated August 18, 2026

Live markets

FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent Kalshi

At least 50%

Market Model 98.0% 97.0%

At least 70%

Market Model 79.0% 71.8%

$12.2K Refresh

Florida Republican Governor primary: Byron Donalds vote percent Kalshi

At least 55%

Market Model 54.0% 35.0%

At least 60%

Market Model 31.0% 12.0%

$218.5K Refresh

FL-20 Democratic primary: Debbie Wasserman Schultz vote percent Kalshi

At least 35%

Market Model 81.0% 72.8%

At least 40%

Market Model 80.0% 71.5%

Alaska U.S. Senate primary: Mary Peltola vote percent Kalshi

At least 30%

Market Model 99.0% 98.5%

At least 50%

Market Model 85.0% 80.9%

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent Kalshi

At least 1%

Market Model 98.0% 96.8%

At least 20%

Market Model 19.0% 12.8%

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