Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~7d): Fishback's probability for at least 1% surged dramatically, model-led (+71.5pp), compressing the edge.
- Similar model-led gains (+69.0pp) for at least 5% also compressed the edge considerably.
- Conversely, for at least 15% and 20%, the edge widened as the market led gains.
- The overall confidence score decreased by 1.0pp, despite significant probability shifts.
- A July 27 ruling confirms Fishback's ballot presence, establishing a fundamental vote share floor.
- Recent polling data indicates Fishback's support generally ranges from 8% to 12%.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1% | 98.0% | 96.8% | A judge ruled James Fishback will remain on the August 18 primary ballot. |
| At least 20% | 19.0% | 12.8% | Aggregated recent polling data indicates Fishback's support generally ranges from 8% to 12%. |
| At least 10% | 75.0% | 65.4% | Fishback remains on the ballot, but recent polling data indicates high single to low double-digit support. |
| At least 30% | 5.3% | 4.2% | Aggregated recent polling data indicates Fishback's support generally ranges from 8% to 12%. |
| At least 3% | 95.1% | 92.3% | A judge ruled James Fishback will remain on the August 18 primary ballot. |
Current Context
Sources (9)
- 1Florida gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 18...ballotpedia.org
- 2James Fishback stays on ballot for governor's race after...nbcmiami.com
- 3Florida Voter Registration and Voting Guidefiles.floridados.gov
- 4Election Dates & Deadlinesmyfloridaelections.com
- 5A look at Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary candidates...news.ballotpedia.org
- 6Florida state executive official elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 7James Fishback will stay on GOP ballot, judge rulesorlandosentinel.com
- 8James Fishback stays on Florida ballot, judge rulestallahassee.com
- 92026 Florida Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: At least 1%
📈 July 27, 2026: 56.4pp spike
Price increased from 41.0% to 97.4%
📉 July 22, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 54.0% to 46.0%
Outcome: At least 15%
📈 July 26, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 4.0% to 13.0%
📉 July 25, 2026: 12.0pp drop
Price decreased from 16.0% to 4.0%
📈 July 24, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 9.0% to 17.0%
Sources (26)
- 1James Fishback stays in Governor’s race after Judge dismisses Jay Collins' residency challengefloridapolitics.com
- 2James Fishback will stay on GOP ballot, judge rulesorlandosentinel.com
- 3James Fishback stays on ballot for governor's race after...nbcmiami.com
- 4Judge rules Fishback eligible for governor racemysuncoast.com
- 5Fishback Hits 27% for Florida GOP Governor 2nd Place as Attacks Multiply | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com
- 6Will James Fishback get more than 9% of the vote in the 2026 Florida Gubernatorial GOP Primary? | Manifoldmanifold.markets
- 7James Fishback is polling at approximately 10% in the Florida Republican Primary for Governor. If no one drops out, the moderate could be the winner. | Kandidateslinkedin.com
- 8A look at Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary candidates...news.ballotpedia.org
- 9Four candidates running in Democratic gubernatorial primary in Florida - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 10Crist defeats Fried in Florida gubernatorial Democratic primary - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 112026 Florida Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 12Fishback hearing: Threats, insults, and admission of D.C. voting, property • Florida Phoenixfloridaphoenix.com
- 13Fishback says he’s a Florida man amid Collins’ DC residence allegation | WGCU News | PBS & NPR for Southwest Floridawgcu.org
- 14Florida judge starts weighing James Fishback ballot eligibilityheraldtribune.com
- 15James Fishbackballotpedia.org
- 16Florida gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 18...ballotpedia.org
- 17Florida gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election...ballotpedia.org
- 18Florida state executive official elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 19Who Wins the Midterms & What It Means for Markets with Dan Clifton | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 67youtube.com
- 20Us & Iran Shun Diplomacy, 100% Drug Tariffs Plan | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
- 21AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lieyoutube.com
- 22US, Iran Talk in Doha; Trump's $1.4 Billion Crypto Haul | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
- 23Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028youtube.com
- 24Fishback makes surprise announcement amid ballot fightgainesville.com
- 25Judge rules James Fishback will stay on primary ballot for...wfla.com
- 26POLL: Donalds Leads Florida GOP Governor Primary with...cygn.al
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if James Fishback's certified popular vote percentage in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is 15% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints. It resolves NO if his percentage is below 15%, or if the election is cancelled, postponed beyond expiration, or certified results are unavailable by the market's final expiration on August 18, 2027, 10:00 AM EDT. Settlement relies solely on official, certified results from the Florida Secretary of State, with percentages calculated from total valid votes and subject to change by recounts before expiration.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1% | $0.98 | $0.05 | 98% |
| At least 3% | $0.97 | $0.05 | 95% |
| At least 5% | $0.95 | $0.07 | 95% |
| At least 10% | $0.77 | $0.26 | 75% |
| At least 15% | $0.44 | $0.59 | 44% |
| At least 20% | $0.19 | $0.82 | 19% |
| At least 30% | $0.05 | $0.95 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Traders are actively debating James Fishback's vote percentage in the Florida Republican Governor primary, with strong disagreements on whether he will achieve thresholds like 1% or 10%. Proponents for "Yes" are confident he will clear these percentages, mocking those betting against him, while "No" proponents argue that even 10% is an overestimation of his support. The discussion is notably confrontational, though the market currently indicates a 75% chance for him to receive at least 10% of the vote.
5. How do James Fishback's policy positions on key Florida issues compare to those of frontrunner Byron Donalds?
| Fishback's Key Policy | Bans AI and statewide data centers [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Donalds' Alignment | Traditional Trump-backed conservative [1] |
| Primary Polling | Donalds has substantial polling advantage in 2026 FL Republican gubernatorial primary [3][4][5] |
Sources (6)
- 1A look at Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary candidates' different backgrounds and their views on data centers - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 2The Platform - James Fishback for Governorfishback2026.com
- 3Fishback hearing: Threats, insults, and admission of D.C. voting, property • Florida Phoenixfloridaphoenix.com
- 4James Fishback again invokes Byron Donalds’ race in pitch to end gun waiting periodfloridapolitics.com
- 5James Fishback again invokes Byron Donalds' race in pitch to end gun waiting period — Spot On Floridaspotonflorida.com
- 6Byron Donaldsballotpedia.org
6. What is the quantifiable impact of the July 27, 2026 court ruling on James Fishback's campaign fundraising and media sentiment?
| Reported Ruling Date | July 27, 2026 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Fundraising Impact of Ruling | No quantifiable positive impact [1][2][4] |
| Public Record of Ruling | No public evidence found [5][6][7][8][9] |
Sources (11)
- 1Florida judge refuses to boot Fishback from the ballot, won't...floridaphoenix.com
- 2James Fishback stays in Governor’s race after Judge dismisses Jay Collins' residency challengefloridapolitics.com
- 3Judge rules James Fishback can stay on Florida ballot | Miami Heraldmiamiherald.com
- 4Judge rules to keep James Fishback on Florida Republican ballotjacksonville.com
- 5Federal district judges issue conflicting rulings on states' use of expanded SAVE system for voting purposes - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 6Supreme Court rules 6-3 for presidential removal of independent agency commissioner - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 7Five 2026 ballot measures address sex-based school sports eligibility, certain medical procedures for transgender minors - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 8A look at Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary candidates' different backgrounds and their views on data centers - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 92026 Florida Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 10https://polymarket.com/event/james-fishback-vote-share-in-2026-florida-republican-governor-primary-20260701214154078polymarket.com
- 11James Fishback vote percent Elections Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
7. What key endorsements or campaign events between now and August 18, 2026, could significantly alter voter support for James Fishback or Byron Donalds?
| Fishback Residency Hearing | July 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Primary Election Date | August 18, 2026 [3] |
| GOP Primary Debates | None scheduled [3] |
8. What public polling data is available to track James Fishback's support in the 2026 Florida Republican primary, and what are the pollsters' release schedules?
| Cygnal Poll (July 20, 2026) | 12% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Tyson Group Poll (July 13, 2026) | 8% [1][3] |
| Change Research Poll (May 17, 2026) | 9% [1][4][5] |
Sources (7)
- 1James Fishback surging support for Florida governor buoyed by young voters and the far right | WLRNwlrn.org
- 2POLL: Donalds Leads Florida GOP Governor Primary with...cygn.al
- 3Byron Donalds takes 48% in new Tyson Group poll, nearly...floridapolitics.com
- 42026 Polls: Florida Governor270towin.com
- 5https://flvoicenews.com/poll-byron-donalds-dominates-as-fishback-flounders-in-florida-gubernatorial-primary/flvoicenews.com
- 6Florida Governor Republican Primary Ballot Test | DDHQ - Pollsstaging-polls.decisiondeskhq.com
- 7A look at Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary candidates...news.ballotpedia.org
9. What specific polling results and major endorsements substantiate Byron Donalds' current status as the frontrunner in the 2026 primary?
| Byron Donalds' July 2026 Polls | 43%–54% support in July 2026 surveys (consistent frontrunner) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Lead Margin | 30-40+ percentage points ahead of rivals in July 2026 surveys [1][2][3][4] |
| Key Endorsement | President Donald Trump (announced February 2025) [1][5][4] |
Sources (8)
- 1Byron Donalds takes 48% in new Tyson Group poll, nearly 40 points ahead of GOP fieldfloridapolitics.com
- 2Byron Donalds' internal poll shows the Republican Primary all but overfloridapolitics.com
- 3Byron Donalds Leads Florida GOP Primary Survey As High Undecided Share Leaves Opening - Tampa Free Presstampafp.com
- 4Trump-Backed Byron Donalds’ Chances of Winning Primary 1 Month to Election - Newsweeknewsweek.com
- 5Donalds Lands Key Lawmaker Endorsements As Rival Polls Spar Over Florida GOP Governor Race - Tampa Free Presstampafp.com
- 6A look at Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary candidates' different backgrounds and their views on data centers - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 7Florida Governor Republican Primary Ballot Test | DDHQ - Pollsstaging-polls.decisiondeskhq.com
- 8Byron Donalds - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 18, 2027
- Closes: August 18, 2027
Sources (8)
- 1Election Dates - Division of Electionsdos.fl.gov
- 2Election Dates & Deadlinesmyfloridaelections.com
- 3James Fishback stays on ballot for governor’s race after judge rejects residency claims – NBC 6 South Floridanbcmiami.com
- 4James Fishback stays in Governor's race after Judge...floridapolitics.com
- 5A look at Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary candidates' different backgrounds and their views on data centers - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 62026 Florida Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 7James Fishback stays on Florida ballot, judge rulestallahassee.com
- 8Judge rules James Fishback can stay on Florida ballotmiamiherald.com
12. Related News
Court Ruling Keeps Fishback on Ballot, Spiking Florida Primary Odds
A Florida judge’s decision on Monday, July 27, 2026, to dismiss a residency challenge against Republican gubernatorial candidate James Fishback triggered a massive upward repricing in markets forecast...
Fishback's Florida Governor Odds Tumble Amid Weak Polling, Eligibility Hearing
A new poll showing insurgent candidate James Fishback with just 12% support, combined with a court hearing on his eligibility that began Tuesday, drove a sharp sell-off in prediction markets for his p...
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-COPRIMARY01D26DDEGDDEG-80: NO (Jul 27, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-COPRIMARY01D26DDEGDDEG-77: NO (Jul 27, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-COPRIMARY01D26DDEGDDEG-75: NO (Jul 27, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-COPRIMARY01D26DDEGDDEG-72: NO (Jul 27, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-COPRIMARY01D26DDEGDDEG-70: NO (Jul 27, 2026)