Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect James Fishback to secure at least 1% of the vote in the Florida Republican Governor primary, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. The Leon Circuit Court judge ruled Fishback will remain on the ballot, establishing a floor for his vote share.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~7d): Fishback's probability for at least 1% surged dramatically, model-led (+71.5pp), compressing the edge.
- Similar model-led gains (+69.0pp) for at least 5% also compressed the edge considerably.
- Conversely, for at least 15% and 20%, the edge widened as the market led gains.
- The overall confidence score decreased by 1.0pp, despite significant probability shifts.
- A July 27 ruling confirms Fishback's ballot presence, establishing a fundamental vote share floor.
- Recent polling data indicates Fishback's support generally ranges from 8% to 12%.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1% | 98.0% | 96.8% | A judge ruled James Fishback will remain on the August 18 primary ballot. |
| At least 20% | 19.0% | 12.8% | Aggregated recent polling data indicates Fishback's support generally ranges from 8% to 12%. |
| At least 10% | 75.0% | 65.4% | Fishback remains on the ballot, but recent polling data indicates high single to low double-digit support. |
| At least 30% | 5.3% | 4.2% | Aggregated recent polling data indicates Fishback's support generally ranges from 8% to 12%. |
| At least 3% | 95.1% | 92.3% | A judge ruled James Fishback will remain on the August 18 primary ballot. |
Current Context
James Fishback is a candidate in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary. The primary election is scheduled for August 18, 2026, with mandatory early voting from August 8 to August 15, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. A Leon Circuit Court judge ruled on July 27, 2026, that Fishback will remain on the August 18 primary ballot, dismissing a residency challenge by opponent Lt. Gov. Jay Collins [^][^][^].
No specific vote percentage for James Fishback is available yet. The Republican primary election has not occurred as of July 28, 2026 [^][^]. Current polling data indicates Fishback is trailing in the race, alongside Jay Collins, while U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is identified as a frontrunner in the primary [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has seen a sharp upward trend, with the contract price rising from an opening of 65.0% to a current 94.6%. The price action is dominated by a single event on July 27, 2026, when the market repriced 56.4 percentage points higher, from 41.0% to 97.4%. This spike was a direct reaction to a Leon County Circuit Court ruling that confirmed James Fishback's eligibility to remain on the ballot for the Republican gubernatorial primary. The ruling resolved a key legal uncertainty that had previously suppressed the price.
Trading volume, which totals 351,979 contracts, shows increased conviction around this news event. Volume was elevated during the repricing, indicating active participation as the market absorbed the court's decision. The price action blew through any prior resistance levels, establishing a new floor far above the pre-ruling lows. The current price near 95% reflects strong market sentiment that a major obstacle to the candidate's primary performance has been removed. The market is now pricing in a high probability of a strong vote share for Fishback.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: At least 1%
📈 July 27, 2026: 56.4pp spike
Price increased from 41.0% to 97.4%
What happened: The primary driver of the significant price movement on July 27, 2026, was a Leon County Circuit Court judge's ruling confirming James Fishback's eligibility to remain on the Florida Republican Governor primary ballot [^][^][^][^]. This decision dismissed a residency challenge, removing a major obstacle to Fishback's candidacy and making the "at least 1%" vote share outcome viable, causing its implied probability to surge [^][^][^][^]. The ruling coincided directly with the reported market spike, following days of volatility as prediction markets tracked his candidacy status [^][^][^][^][^]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant, as no relevant activity was present in the provided research.
📉 July 22, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 54.0% to 46.0%
What happened: The provided research indicates there is no evidence or verifiable data of an 8.0 percentage point drop in James Fishback's vote percent in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary prediction market on July 22, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. The primary election has not yet occurred, and no verified vote percentages are available as of July 28, 2026 [^][^]. While Fishback admitted to voting in Washington, D.C., in 2020 during a July 21, 2026, hearing [^][^][^], this event is not linked to any specific market price drop on the following day. Therefore, social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors cannot be identified as primary drivers for a market movement that lacks corroborating evidence.
Outcome: At least 15%
📈 July 26, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 4.0% to 13.0%
What happened: Research indicates there is no verified report or data confirming a 9.0 percentage point spike in James Fishback's "vote percent" market on July 26, 2026 [^]. However, prediction markets reported that Fishback's implied probability of finishing in second place in the primary climbed by 13 percentage points, culminating on July 26, 2026 [^]. Market analysts noted no single catalyst for this increase; rather, it appears the market absorbed a cumulative picture of Fishback's resilience amid various attacks [^]. No specific social media activity was identified as a primary driver or significant accelerant for this observed market movement.
📉 July 25, 2026: 12.0pp drop
Price decreased from 16.0% to 4.0%
What happened: Research indicates there is no verifiable evidence in expert-curated sources of a specific 12.0 percentage point drop for James Fishback's prediction market price on July 25, 2026, for the outcome "At least 15%" [^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, no primary driver, whether from social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors, can be identified for this purported movement [^][^][^][^][^]. Without verifiable evidence of the market movement itself, social media's role cannot be determined, rendering it irrelevant.
📈 July 24, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 9.0% to 17.0%
What happened: The 8.0 percentage point spike in James Fishback's prediction market on July 24, 2026, was primarily driven by increasing market confidence he would overcome his ballot residency challenge. News "around that date was primarily focused on his legal ballot battle" [^], even though a judge formally rejected the challenge and ruled Fishback eligible on July 27, 2026 [^][^][^]. This likely improved his perceived viability to reach "At least 15%" support, given he polled at approximately 12% in mid-July [^]. Social media was irrelevant, as no specific activity leading to the spike was found.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if James Fishback's certified popular vote percentage in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is 15% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints. It resolves NO if his percentage is below 15%, or if the election is cancelled, postponed beyond expiration, or certified results are unavailable by the market's final expiration on August 18, 2027, 10:00 AM EDT. Settlement relies solely on official, certified results from the Florida Secretary of State, with percentages calculated from total valid votes and subject to change by recounts before expiration.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1% | $0.98 | $0.05 | 98% |
| At least 3% | $0.97 | $0.05 | 95% |
| At least 5% | $0.95 | $0.07 | 95% |
| At least 10% | $0.77 | $0.26 | 75% |
| At least 15% | $0.44 | $0.59 | 44% |
| At least 20% | $0.19 | $0.82 | 19% |
| At least 30% | $0.05 | $0.95 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Traders are actively debating James Fishback's vote percentage in the Florida Republican Governor primary, with strong disagreements on whether he will achieve thresholds like 1% or 10%. Proponents for "Yes" are confident he will clear these percentages, mocking those betting against him, while "No" proponents argue that even 10% is an overestimation of his support. The discussion is notably confrontational, though the market currently indicates a 75% chance for him to receive at least 10% of the vote.
5. How do James Fishback's policy positions on key Florida issues compare to those of frontrunner Byron Donalds?
| Fishback's Key Policy | Bans AI and statewide data centers [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Donalds' Alignment | Traditional Trump-backed conservative [^] |
| Primary Polling | Donalds has substantial polling advantage in 2026 FL Republican gubernatorial primary [^][^][^] |
James Fishback and Byron Donalds hold contrasting political platforms on key Florida issues. Fishback champions a populist, 'America First' approach, prioritizing affordability and specific measures to reduce the cost of living and combat inflation [^]. Conversely, Donalds adheres to a traditional Trump-backed conservative stance, emphasizing fiscal sanity and limited government principles [^].
Their specific policy proposals highlight these differences in political philosophy. Fishback’s key initiatives include banning AI data centers and implementing a statewide ban on all data centers to conserve Florida’s resources. He also advocates for abolishing homestead property taxes, restricting H-1B visas, and prohibiting private equity firms from purchasing single-family homes [^][^]. In contrast, Donalds focuses on issues such as school choice and Second Amendment rights, with his work as a U.S. Representative concentrating on federal committees related to financial services, oversight, government reform, budget, and economic policy, emphasizing regulatory affairs and energy policy [^].
6. What is the quantifiable impact of the July 27, 2026 court ruling on James Fishback's campaign fundraising and media sentiment?
| Reported Ruling Date | July 27, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Fundraising Impact of Ruling | No quantifiable positive impact [^][^][^] |
| Public Record of Ruling | No public evidence found [^][^][^][^][^] |
Reports conflict on a July 27, 2026 court ruling for James Fishback. Some sources detail a Leon County circuit judge's decision allowing James Fishback to remain on the ballot by dismissing a residency challenge [^][^][^][^]. However, other available information indicates no public record or evidence of such a ruling specifically involving Fishback's campaign on that date, with news reports instead covering other electoral and legal developments [^][^][^][^][^].
The alleged ruling offered no significant boost to Fishback's campaign. Sources that describe the ruling indicate no quantifiable positive impact on campaign fundraising, which remained significantly underfunded [^][^][^]. Media sentiment generally framed the decision as a minor legal victory for Fishback in his dispute with establishment Republicans [^][^][^]. However, major news outlets continued to categorize Fishback as a long-shot, far-right candidate, considerably behind front-runner U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds [^][^][^]. Furthermore, as of July 28, 2026, prediction markets reflected low expectations for Fishback's primary performance, heavily favoring a vote share of less than 10% [^][^].
7. What key endorsements or campaign events between now and August 18, 2026, could significantly alter voter support for James Fishback or Byron Donalds?
| Fishback Residency Hearing | July 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Election Date | August 18, 2026 [^] |
| GOP Primary Debates | None scheduled [^] |
Fishback's residency challenge presents the most significant hurdle. A substantial legal challenge concerning James Fishback's eligibility to run for governor is currently underway, with a hearing scheduled for July 2026 [^][^]. This legal battle is identified as the most impactful potential event that could alter voter support before the primary election, as a disqualification would directly undermine his campaign's viability [^]. Such an outcome could considerably shift voter support for both candidates [^].
No primary debate limits challengers' outreach efforts. The Republican Party of Florida has opted not to host a primary debate, stating that only Byron Donalds fulfilled their specific polling and fundraising criteria [^]. This decision substantially curtails the opportunities for challengers, including James Fishback, to influence voter support through conventional campaign events leading up to the August 18, 2026, primary election [^]. The absence of official debates, combined with Byron Donalds' existing endorsements from Donald Trump and considerable backing from Florida GOP establishment figures and major donors, is expected to favor the existing political landscape [^][^].
8. What public polling data is available to track James Fishback's support in the 2026 Florida Republican primary, and what are the pollsters' release schedules?
| Cygnal Poll (July 20, 2026) | 12% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Tyson Group Poll (July 13, 2026) | 8% [^][^] |
| Change Research Poll (May 17, 2026) | 9% [^][^][^] |
James Fishback's support in the 2026 Florida Republican primary shows fluctuation. Recent public polling data indicates varying levels of support for Fishback. Cygnal reported 12% on July 20, 2026 [^][^], while Tyson Group found 8% on July 13, 2026 [^][^]. An earlier poll from Change Research on May 17, 2026, placed his support at 9% [^][^][^]. While some sources calculate his polling average around 10-11%, one outlier poll from May 2026 indicated a significantly higher figure of 35% [^][^][^].
Specific polling data for Fishback is not widely available. Despite receiving media attention, public polling data that specifically tracks James Fishback's individual vote percentage is not broadly accessible or prominent in major tracked averages [^][^]. This is largely due to the frontrunner, Byron Donalds, frequently being the sole candidate who meets established polling and fundraising thresholds for inclusion in broader analyses [^]. Consequently, public surveys for this race are commissioned on an ad-hoc basis by various organizations, including Cygnal, Tyson Group, universities, and media outlets. These releases occur sporadically throughout the primary campaign cycle, and there is no standard release schedule for this data [^].
9. What specific polling results and major endorsements substantiate Byron Donalds' current status as the frontrunner in the 2026 primary?
| Byron Donalds' July 2026 Polls | 43%–54% support in July 2026 surveys (consistent frontrunner) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Lead Margin | 30-40+ percentage points ahead of rivals in July 2026 surveys [^][^][^][^] |
| Key Endorsement | President Donald Trump (announced February 2025) [^][^][^] |
Byron Donalds consistently leads 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary polls. In July 2026 surveys, U.S. Representative Byron Donalds has polled between 43% and 54%, establishing a significant lead of 30-40+ percentage points over his closest competitors [^][^][^][^]. Other Republican candidates, including investor James Fishback, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, and former House Speaker Paul Renner, have consistently registered single-digit support throughout July 2026. Earlier polling from June 2026 also showed Byron Donalds with 37.3% support, notably ahead of James Fishback, who held 26.7% at that time [^][^].
Donalds' frontrunner status is bolstered by significant endorsements and party support. A key endorsement from President Donald Trump, first announced in February 2025, provides substantial backing [^][^][^]. His campaign has also secured support from major state and national officials, including Senator Rick Scott, House Speaker Mike Johnson, numerous sheriffs, and a majority of the Republican legislative caucus, alongside several other prominent Republicans [^][^][^][^][^]. The Republican Party of Florida further acknowledged Byron Donalds' strong polling and fundraising by qualifying him as the sole candidate permitted in their primary debate [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Florida Republican gubernatorial primary election is scheduled for August 18, 2026, with early voting set for August 8–15, 2026 [^] [^] . James Fishback is a candidate in this primary [^][^][^]. Recent polling indicates Fishback holds approximately 8% support, placing him behind front-runner Byron Donalds, who has 48%, and Jay Collins, with 9% [^][^]. Donalds is reported to be leading in both polling and fundraising [^]. As of July 28, 2026, official vote percentages for Fishback are not available, as the primary election has not yet occurred [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 18, 2027
- Closes: August 18, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The Florida Republican gubernatorial primary election is scheduled for August 18, 2026, with early voting set for August 8–15, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: James Fishback is a candidate in this primary [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Recent polling indicates Fishback holds approximately 8% support, placing him behind front-runner Byron Donalds, who has 48%, and Jay Collins, with 9% [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Donalds is reported to be leading in both polling and fundraising [^] .
13. Related News
Last updated: July 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC
Court Ruling Keeps Fishback on Ballot, Spiking Florida Primary Odds
A Florida judge’s decision on Monday, July 27, 2026, to dismiss a residency challenge against Republican gubernatorial candidate James Fishback triggered a massive upward repricing in markets forecast...
Last updated: July 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC
Fishback's Florida Governor Odds Tumble Amid Weak Polling, Eligibility Hearing
A new poll showing insurgent candidate James Fishback with just 12% support, combined with a court hearing on his eligibility that began Tuesday, drove a sharp sell-off in prediction markets for his p...
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-COPRIMARY01D26DDEGDDEG-80: NO (Jul 27, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-COPRIMARY01D26DDEGDDEG-77: NO (Jul 27, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-COPRIMARY01D26DDEGDDEG-75: NO (Jul 27, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-COPRIMARY01D26DDEGDDEG-72: NO (Jul 27, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-COPRIMARY01D26DDEGDDEG-70: NO (Jul 27, 2026)
