Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Byron Donalds to receive at least 45% of the vote in the Florida Republican Governor primary. However, late-stage polling averages from Decision Desk HQ indicate Donalds' support between 30% and 31%, suggesting the 45% threshold is significantly overvalued.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Decision Desk HQ indicates Donalds' support between 30-31%, limiting higher vote share.
  • Thresholds of 45% or higher are significantly overvalued by current market probabilities.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
At least 55% 54.0% 35.0% Late-stage Decision Desk HQ polls indicate Donalds' support at 30-31%.
At least 60% 31.0% 12.0% Late-stage Decision Desk HQ polls indicate Donalds' support at 30-31%.
At least 80% 2.0% 0.5% Late-stage Decision Desk HQ polls indicate Donalds' support at 30-31%.
At least 50% 74.0% 75.0% Late-stage Decision Desk HQ polls indicate Donalds' support at 30-31%.
At least 45% 86.0% 91.0% Late-stage Decision Desk HQ polls indicate Donalds' support at 30-31%.

Current Context

Byron Donalds was the heavily favored frontrunner in Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . | EL PAÍS English" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. Donalds officially entered the race after vacating his seat in Florida's 19th Congressional District [^][^][^]. He received President Donald Trump's endorsement [^][^]. Leading into the election, Donalds had raised over $111 million for his gubernatorial bid, significantly outpacing his primary rivals [^][^]. Polling data, including an Emerson College poll from March 2026, indicated his strong lead among Republican primary candidates [^].
Donalds competed in a crowded field with significant market confidence. The Republican primary included 11 to 12 candidates, such as Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner, and businessman James Fishback [^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets leading up to the election assigned Donalds a 97% to 99% probability of victory [^]. As of August 18, 2026, the primary election was ongoing or had recently concluded, with live reporting systems tabulating vote counts and Decision Desk HQ data confirming Donalds' participation [^][^]. If successful in the primary, Donalds is projected to face former U.S. Representative David Jolly, the leading contender for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, in the November general election [^][^][^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This market exhibits significant volatility within a broader downward trend. The contract, which opened at 62.0%, currently trades at 55.0% after fluctuating between a high of 78.0% and a low of 43.0%. The period from August 13 to August 18 was particularly turbulent, featuring multiple price swings of 8.0 percentage points or more. Notably, a sharp 14.0-point drop occurred on August 18. Analysis of the provided context indicates these major price movements do not correlate with publicly available information or polling data from the campaign, which consistently showed Byron Donalds as the frontrunner. The market's price action appears detached from external news drivers during this period.
Volume analysis suggests conviction rose significantly alongside the most recent price drop. Trading volume was minimal on August 11 but surged to over 1,100 contracts on August 18, the same day the price fell to 55.0%. This indicates the final downward move was backed by substantial market activity. The chart shows a clear resistance level in the 77-78% range, which was tested and rejected on August 13 and August 16. A support level appears to have formed around 43.0% on August 17. The overall price trajectory, despite the volatility, suggests that trader sentiment has soured on the probability of Donalds achieving a high vote share, with the market's current pricing well below the highs seen in mid-August.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: At least 58%

📉 August 18, 2026: 19.0pp drop

Price decreased from 62.0% to 43.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for the predicted 19.0 percentage point drop, as there is no evidence to substantiate the claim of Byron Donalds reaching 58% vote share or experiencing such a decline on August 18, 2026. On that date, the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary was still ongoing with polls open, and final election results were not yet available [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Byron Donalds remained a leading candidate with pre-election polls showing him around 46% support, not 58% [^][^][^]. Therefore, social media activity was irrelevant to this movement, as the underlying event described is not supported by the available facts.

Outcome: At least 60%

📉 August 17, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 52.0% to 42.0%

What happened: The observed 10.0 percentage point drop in Byron Donalds' predicted vote share on August 17, 2026, does not appear to be driven by real-world events. Public polling data remained consistent, showing Donalds as the overwhelming frontrunner ahead of the August 18 primary, with no evidence of such a significant decline in support [^][^][^]. Instead, this reported market movement likely originated from anomalous, non-official figures displayed by some test or integration data sources, which did not represent actual election results [^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this apparent data anomaly.

Outcome: At least 45%

📈 August 16, 2026: 59.0pp spike

Price increased from 34.0% to 93.0%

What happened: The provided research indicates there is no evidence supporting a "59.0 percentage point spike" in Byron Donalds' prediction market price on August 16, 2026 [^]. Pre-election polling consistently showed Donalds leading the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary with support generally ranging from 45% to 54%, making him the overwhelming favorite [^]. The primary election date was August 18, 2026 [^]. There is no information in the available sources regarding social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that would have caused such a drastic price movement, as the underlying polling data for Donalds was stable and already at a high level [^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this non-existent market event.

📉 August 15, 2026: 58.0pp drop

Price decreased from 92.0% to 34.0%

What happened: The provided web research offers no evidence of a 58.0 percentage point drop for Byron Donalds in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary on or around August 15, 2026 [^][^][^]. Instead, polling consistently showed Donalds leading the field with support ranging from 34% to 54% leading up to the August 18, 2026 primary, and official results were not yet finalized [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Given the absence of evidence for the described market movement, it is impossible to identify a primary driver, and social media activity cannot be linked to a non-existent event.

Outcome: At least 55%

📈 August 13, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 69.0% to 77.0%

What happened: The reported 8.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Byron Donalds' vote percentage on August 13, 2026, lacks supporting evidence and appears to be a misattribution or confusion with unrelated data [^][^][^]. No credible reports, reputable polls, or documented social media activity indicated such a specific shift for Donalds on that date [^][^][^][^]. Therefore, social media was not a primary driver of this purported movement, as the market event itself is not substantiated by the available information.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For this market, a "YES" resolution occurs if Byron Donalds receives at least 55% of the vote in the Florida Republican Governor primary. Conversely, a "NO" resolution occurs if he receives less than 55% of the vote. Settlement of contracts will take place only after the official results of the primary election are certified, with a maximum payout date of August 18, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
At least 45% $0.90 $0.14 86%
At least 50% $0.78 $0.25 74%
At least 53% $0.69 $0.36 64%
At least 55% $0.54 $0.49 54%
At least 58% $0.42 $0.61 43%
At least 60% $0.33 $0.68 31%
At least 63% $0.26 $0.79 21%
At least 65% $0.17 $0.84 14%
At least 70% $0.09 $0.96 3%
At least 75% $0.05 $0.99 2%
At least 80% $0.02 $0.99 2%

Market Discussion

Byron Donalds is the overwhelming favorite to win the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18, 2026, with recent polling consistently placing his support among likely Republican primary voters in the 48-54% range, including one poll at 46% [^][^][^][^][^][^]. He leads his primary challengers by margins of 30 to over 40 percentage points, and prediction markets assign him a 98-99% probability of victory [^][^][^][^][^][^].

5. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

At least 55%PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality87Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality87Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
At least 45%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality81Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality81Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
At least 50%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality81Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality81Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
At least 53%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality51Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality51Mixedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
At least 58%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality84Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality84Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
At least 60%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality80Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality80Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
At least 63%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
At least 65%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
At least 70%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
At least 75%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality71Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality71Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
At least 80%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 18, 2026

6. What do late-stage polls from sources like Emerson College indicate for Byron Donalds' final vote share versus the rest of the Republican field?

Early Poll Support (Emerson)46% (March 29-31, 2026) [^][^]
Late-Stage Poll Range30% to 54% [^][^][^][^]
Victory Probability (Prediction Markets)97-99% [^]
Emerson College polls in early 2026 showed strong initial support for Byron Donalds. Surveys conducted from March 29-31, 2026, indicated Donalds leading the Republican gubernatorial primary. One poll reported his support at 46%, with a significant 39% of voters remaining undecided [^][^]. Another Emerson College survey from the same period placed his support at 44% in the Republican field [^].
As the August 18, 2026 primary neared, late-stage polls presented varied projections for Donalds' vote share. Some partisan-aligned surveys suggested his support could be as high as 53-54%, while independent or media-commissioned polls typically showed him around 49% [^][^][^]. An outlier survey by The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI) indicated a much tighter contest, with Donalds at 34.0% against James Fishback at 29.4% [^][^][^]. Decision Desk HQ polling averages for late-stage August 2026 surveys placed Donalds' support between approximately 30% and 31% [^].
Despite the discrepancies in specific vote shares, prediction markets consistently favored Byron Donalds for victory. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket indicated a high probability of Donalds winning the primary. These markets estimated his chances of success between 97% and 99% [^].

7. How does Byron Donalds' fundraising and ad spending in the final quarter compare to his closest primary rivals like Jay Collins and Paul Renner?

Byron Donalds Total RaisedOver $111 million [^][^]
Byron Donalds Cash on HandApproximately $58 million [^][^][^]
Jay Collins Cash on HandRoughly $430,000 [^][^][^]
Byron Donalds maintained a substantial financial lead over primary rivals. Leading up to the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, Byron Donalds held a significant financial advantage over Jay Collins and Paul Renner [^][^][^]. As of July 2026, Donalds had raised over $111 million in total, which included $99 million directed to his political action committee (PAC) [^][^][^]. In comparison, Jay Collins accumulated approximately $10 million, while Paul Renner's political committee gathered about $6.2 million [^][^].
Donalds aggressively outspent opponents due to significant cash reserves. By the final reporting period, Donalds had approximately $58 million banked, consisting of nearly $52 million in his PAC and $7 million in his campaign account [^][^][^]. This robust financial position enabled him to make multi-million dollar ad buys and media placements, effectively outspending his opponents [^][^][^]. In stark contrast, rivals such as Collins and Renner had considerably less cash on hand, with roughly $430,000 and $135,000 respectively, facing significant constraints due to thin reserves and decelerating fundraising momentum [^][^][^][^].

8. What impact could a late withdrawal or endorsement shift by candidates like Jay Collins or Paul Renner have on Byron Donalds' final vote total?

Donalds Poll Support32%-53% [^][^][^][^]
Donalds Victory Probability98%-99% [^][^][^]
Endorsement Shift EvidenceNone confirmed [^][^][^][^][^]
No late withdrawals or endorsements significantly impacted Byron Donalds' vote total. As of August 18, 2026, there was no public evidence or reporting confirming a "late withdrawal or endorsement shift" by candidates Jay Collins or Paul Renner in favor of or against Byron Donalds that would affect his final vote total [^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, indicated a 98%-99% probability of a Byron Donalds victory, with no reports of late-stage withdrawals or significant eleventh-hour endorsement shifts influencing the outcome [^][^][^].
Byron Donalds was the overwhelming frontrunner in the primary election. He entered the August 18, 2026, Florida Republican gubernatorial primary as the dominant candidate, consistently polling between 32% and 53% support [^][^][^][^]. His rivals, Jay Collins and Paul Renner, typically polled in the single digits or low teens [^][^][^][^]. Incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis did not endorse any candidate in the 2026 primary [^][^][^].

9. Where can traders find reliable, county-level live vote data for the August 18 primary, and what do sources like Decision Desk HQ show about early returns?

Byron Donalds Win Probability97% to 99% (prior to polls closing) [^][^]
Primary Election DateAugust 18, 2026 [^][^]
County-level Live Vote DataAvailable via Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) Votes portal [^]
Traders can access live county-level vote data from reliable sources. Major news organizations, such as NBC News, provide this information, leveraging data feeds from Decision Desk HQ and Associated Press [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Direct access to these results is also available through the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) Votes portal and state-specific outlets like NPR's election results portal [^][^]. While official vote tallies were not available at the start of Election Day, real-time results typically begin to populate once polls close and initial counts, including early and mail-in ballots, are reported by county election officials [^][^][^].
Byron Donalds was favored, showing early leads in key counties. Prior to polls closing on August 18, 2026, U.S. Representative Byron Donalds was widely regarded as the overwhelming favorite for the Florida Republican gubernatorial nomination [^][^]. Prediction markets assigned him between a 97% and 99% probability of winning [^][^]. The Decision Desk HQ's live result dashboard tracks county-level returns, and early, non-official integration data showed Byron Donalds with leads in various counties, including Broward, Charlotte, and Clay [^].

10. What is the historical precedent for Donald Trump's endorsement influencing final vote share in crowded, statewide Republican primaries?

Vote Share Increase (Trump Endorsement)Approximately 10 percentage points [^][^][^][^]
2026 Trump Endorsement Success Rate97% (220 wins out of 227 primaries) [^][^]
Byron Donalds Primary DateAugust 18, 2026 [^][^]
Donald Trump's endorsements significantly boost vote share in Republican primaries. These endorsements are generally associated with a statistically significant increase in vote share, often estimated at approximately 10 percentage points [^][^][^][^]. In the 2026 election cycle, Trump-endorsed candidates have maintained a 97% success rate, winning 220 out of 227 primaries across various levels of office, demonstrating a continued strong historical precedent for his influence in Republican primaries [^][^].
Endorsement impact varies, strongest in low-information primary environments. The influence of a Trump endorsement is most pronounced where voters lack prior knowledge of candidates, while its effect can be mitigated in high-profile races with extensive voter information [^][^]. Its overall impact varies widely based on factors such as candidate quality, pre-existing name recognition, media coverage, and the presence of high-profile, well-funded opposition [^][^][^][^].
An endorsement is a powerful tool, but not always decisive. While a Trump endorsement is generally considered one of the most effective tools for winning a Republican primary, historical evidence shows it is not infallible; highly funded campaigns or unique local dynamics can occasionally overcome its influence [^][^]. An example of a crowded field where this influence might be tested is the August 18, 2026, Republican primary for Governor of Florida, which features Byron Donalds among 12 candidates [^][^].

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is being held today, August 18, 2026, with twelve candidates competing to succeed the term-limited incumbent, Governor Ron DeSantis [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . U.S. Representative Byron Donalds is the frontrunner in the Republican primary for Florida governor [^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets entering Election Day gave Byron Donalds a 97-99% probability of winning the Republican primary [^]. Recent polls from August 11, 2026, show him with approximately 30-31% of the vote [^].
Key catalysts for Donalds include the endorsement of Donald Trump and a massive fundraising advantage of over $111 million [^] [^] [^] [^] . | WLRN" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^][^]. Donalds benefited from a high-profile endorsement from Donald Trump and led in campaign fundraising [^]. He was also the only candidate to meet the Republican Party of Florida's qualification criteria to participate in a party-sanctioned debate, which ultimately did not take place [^]. The lack of an endorsement from outgoing Governor Ron DeSantis is noted as a neutral factor in the primary landscape [^][^][^][^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 18, 2027
  • Closes: August 18, 2027

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: The Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is being held today, August 18, 2026, with twelve candidates competing to succeed the term-limited incumbent, Governor Ron DeSantis [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: U.S.
  • Trigger: Representative Byron Donalds is the frontrunner in the Republican primary for Florida governor [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: Prediction markets entering Election Day gave Byron Donalds a 97-99% probability of winning the Republican primary [^] .

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-45: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-40: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-35: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-30: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-25: NO (Aug 14, 2026)