Alaska U.S. Senate primary: Mary Peltola vote percent
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Mary Peltola to receive at least 30% of the vote in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. Peltola received 50.4% of the vote in the 2024 Alaska primary.
1. Executive Verdict
- Mary Peltola is a frontrunner, leading most primary polls for at least 30% vote share.
- Her 50.4% vote share in the 2024 primary suggests potential for 50% or more.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 30% | 99.0% | 98.5% | Mary Peltola is a frontrunner with a historical primary vote share of 50.4% in 2024. |
| At least 50% | 85.0% | 80.9% | Mary Peltola received 50.4% of the vote in the 2024 primary, achieving this threshold. |
| At least 35% | 98.0% | 97.1% | Mary Peltola received 50.4% of the vote in the 2024 primary, indicating strong historical support. |
| At least 40% | 92.0% | 88.7% | Her historical primary vote shares include 50.4% in 2024, showing a positive outlook. |
| At least 45% | 65.0% | 80.9% | Mary Peltola, a frontrunner, received 50.4% in the 2024 Alaska primary. |
Current Context
Alaska's U.S. Senate primary is underway; official results are pending. The primary election is being held today, August 18, 2026, with polling places open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. AKDT [^][^][^]. Official vote percentages for Mary Peltola are not yet available, as the election is ongoing [^][^][^]. The Alaska Division of Elections expects to release the first set of unofficial results between 8:45 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. AKDT tonight [^][^][^][^].
Alaska's primary uses a top-four system; Peltola and Sullivan lead. The Senate race features 16 candidates in a nonpartisan top-four primary [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Under this system, all candidates appear on one ballot regardless of party, and the top four vote-getters advance to the November 3, 2026, general election [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The general election will determine the winner via ranked-choice voting [^][^][^][^][^]. Mary Peltola, who filed her candidacy on January 12, 2026 [^][^][^], and incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan are considered the frontrunners among the 16 candidates [^][^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action is defined by an extreme, two-day gap. The contract price jumped from 0.0% on August 14 to 90.0% and then to 99.0% by August 15. It has since held this near-100% level. This initial, decisive price movement was reportedly driven by misinformation. The primary election itself was not scheduled until August 18, making any vote count data circulating on August 14 or 15 premature and without a factual basis.
The total volume of 3,627 contracts is moderate, but sample data indicates zero volume traded during the key price spikes on August 14 and 15. This lack of participation suggests the initial gapping move was not the result of broad-based trading activity but may reflect an administrative price set or a single market-maker adjustment. The price has established a firm ceiling at 99.0%, which has acted as resistance. While the current price reflects overwhelming market sentiment for a high vote share for Peltola, this conviction was established on a flawed premise before any valid information was available.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: At least 50%
📈 August 18, 2026: 55.0pp spike
Price increased from 30.0% to 85.0%
What happened: The 55.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on August 18, 2026, for Mary Peltola's vote percentage in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary, appears primarily driven by an erroneous association with her historical 2022 U.S. House general election victory margin of 55.0% [^][^][^]. While no credible news or public data reported a 55.0% vote for Peltola in the 2026 primary [^][^][^], it is plausible that a misinformed social media post, mistakenly attributing her past success to current results, coincided with and triggered this market movement [^][^][^]. Such a viral misattribution of her prior electoral performance would likely be a primary driver for the precisely matching numerical spike in the prediction market.
Outcome: At least 35%
📈 August 15, 2026: 22.0pp spike
Price increased from 74.0% to 96.0%
What happened: The reported 22.0 percentage point spike in Mary Peltola's vote percent on August 15, 2026, is not supported by available information [^][^][^][^][^]. The Alaska U.S. Senate primary election is occurring on August 18, 2026, which makes any vote percentage movement on August 15 premature [^][^][^]. There is no verified evidence in expert-curated sources of a 22 percentage point vote spike for Mary Peltola occurring on August 15, 2026 [^][^]. Therefore, social media activity or other drivers for this specific market movement cannot be identified as the event itself lacks factual grounding.
Outcome: At least 30%
📈 August 14, 2026: 90.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 90.0%
What happened: The primary driver for this prediction market price movement appears to be rooted in misinformation, as the Alaska U.S. Senate primary election is scheduled for August 18, 2026, making any vote percentage results for Mary Peltola unavailable on August 14, 2026 [^][^][^]. Claims of a 30% vote percentage spike or a 90% share for Peltola on that date are unsupported by election data and appear misinformed [^][^][^][^]. Therefore, if the market experienced a 90.0 percentage point spike, it was likely influenced by the rapid dissemination of unverified information. In this scenario, social media would be a primary driver by propagating such false claims.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For contracts in this market, a "YES" resolution occurs if Mary Peltola's officially certified vote percentage in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary meets or exceeds the specific percentage stated in the contract (e.g., "At least 50%"). Conversely, a "NO" resolution occurs if her officially certified vote percentage falls below that specified percentage. Settlement for these contracts will only take place after the election results are officially certified.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 30% | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| At least 35% | $0.99 | $0.07 | 98% |
| At least 40% | $0.97 | $0.09 | 92% |
| At least 50% | $0.35 | $0.72 | 85% |
| At least 45% | $0.72 | $0.35 | 65% |
| At least 55% | $0.10 | $0.97 | 32% |
Market Discussion
Mary Peltola is a widely considered frontrunner in Alaska's all-party U.S. Senate primary, held on August 18, 2026, where the top four vote-getters advance to the general election [^][^][^][^]. Polling leading up to the primary showed Peltola leading in most surveys by 2 to 7 percentage points, though some indicated a narrower margin or a tie [^][^][^]. As of August 18, 2026, election results from the primary are ongoing and have not yet been fully tabulated or finalized [^][^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
At least 30%PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
At least 35%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality71Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality71Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
At least 40%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
At least 45%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality68Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality68Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
At least 50%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
At least 55%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 18, 2026
6. How has Mary Peltola's polling compared to Dan Sullivan's in the final weeks leading into the August 2026 primary?
| Peltola lead (August 2026 poll) | 50.8% (Alaska Survey Research) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Sullivan lead (June 2026 poll) | 47% (New York Times/Siena University) [^][^][^][^] |
| Peltola Polymarket odds | 92% (Polymarket) [^][^] |
Mary Peltola generally led Dan Sullivan in most primary polls. Polling conducted in the final weeks before the August 18, 2026, Alaska primary consistently indicated a close contest between Democratic challenger Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Most surveys showed Peltola holding a narrow advantage [^][^][^][^]. For instance, an Alaska Survey Research poll conducted from August 2–5, 2026, projected Peltola at 50.8 percent and Sullivan at 49.2 percent in a final ranked-choice round simulation [^][^][^][^]. An earlier survey in April 2026 also placed Peltola ahead with 50 percent to Sullivan's 44 percent [^][^].
One poll showed Sullivan ahead, but prediction markets favored Peltola. A New York Times/Siena University poll, conducted from June 15–29, 2026, notably presented an exception, showing incumbent Dan Sullivan leading Mary Peltola 47 percent to 45 percent in the initial round of ranked-choice voting [^][^][^][^]. Despite these varying poll results, prediction markets reflected strong confidence in Mary Peltola as of August 17, 2026. Polymarket odds for the winner of the Alaska Senate primary final round placed Peltola at 92 percent, significantly higher than Sullivan's 8 percent [^][^].
7. What is the official timeline for the Alaska Division of Elections to report primary results on and after August 18, 2026?
| Initial Preliminary Results Release | August 18, 2026, between 8:45 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. AKDT [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Final Unofficial Results Expected | By August 28, 2026 [^][^][^] |
| Official Certification Target | August 31, 2026 [^][^][^] |
Initial primary election results expected late on election night. The Alaska Division of Elections anticipates releasing initial preliminary results for the August 18, 2026, primary election between 8:45 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. AKDT [^][^][^][^]. This initial report signals the start of a continuous process of updates as additional ballots are processed. Further key update windows are expected around August 25 and August 28, 2026, as the division works through incoming votes [^][^][^].
Mail-in ballots extend the timeline for final counts. In Alaska, mail-in ballots are considered valid if they are postmarked on or before Election Day, which is August 18, 2026 [^]. Official election results are updated incrementally as these ballots are received and verified. This thorough processing means that the complete count can extend significantly beyond election night [^].
8. How might the presence of 14 other candidates on the ballot impact the final vote distribution between Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan?
| Number of other candidates | 14 (expected to impact vote distribution) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Incumbent Senator's concern | Voter confusion and dilution of Republican vote due to Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Mary Peltola's vote focus | Primary vote percentage of 45% or higher (prediction market focus) [^][^][^] |
A crowded ballot with 14 candidates will impact vote distribution. The presence of 14 other candidates on the ballot is expected to significantly influence the final vote distribution for both Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan [^][^][^][^]. This extensive field, which notably includes a candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., is seen by analysts as a factor that could dilute the vote shares of leading candidates and potentially favor those with a more consolidated base of support [^][^][^].
Incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan faces concerns about voter confusion. For incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan, the inclusion of 14 other candidates, especially Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., has raised concerns within his campaign regarding potential voter confusion and the fragmentation of the Republican vote [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Analysts and prediction markets suggest this large field could complicate the incumbent's path by impacting primary vote distribution [^][^][^][^]. The incumbent senator has also expressed suspicions that challenger Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. was strategically placed to confuse voters and potentially shift votes towards Mary Peltola [^][^].
9. What does historical data from Alaska's top-four primaries indicate about the likely vote ceiling for a leading Democratic candidate like Mary Peltola?
| 2022 Primary Vote Share | 36.8% [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2024 Primary Vote Share | 50.4% [^][^][^][^] |
| Primary Vote Share Influence | Level of competition among Republican candidates [^][^][^] |
Mary Peltola's vote share varied significantly in Alaska's top-four primary. In this nonpartisan system, she secured 36.8% of the vote in the 2022 regular primary, increasing to 50.4% in the 2024 primary [^][^][^][^]. Her primary vote share is notably influenced by the level of competition among Republican candidates, as evidenced by her achieving over 50% in 2024 amidst low overall turnout and active Republican competition [^][^][^].
Alaska's top-four primary system influences outcomes and prediction accuracy. This system is designed to facilitate moderate results by allowing crossover voting, enabling incumbents like Peltola to garner support beyond their Democratic base [^][^][^][^]. However, the consolidated ballot means a leading candidate's primary share reflects the number of candidates from various parties, rather than indicating a two-party partisan ceiling [^][^]. While Peltola's near 50% primary performance demonstrates significant political strength, analysts caution that low primary turnout can make general election predictions challenging [^][^].
10. How do the fundraising totals and cash-on-hand for Mary Peltola and Dan S. Sullivan compare based on the final pre-primary FEC filings?
| Mary Peltola Total Receipts | $18,545,132 (July 29, 2026 [^][^]) |
|---|---|
| Dan S. Sullivan Total Raised | $11,735,898 (July 29, 2026 [^]) |
| Dan S. Sullivan Cash on Hand | $7,295,069 (July 29, 2026 [^][^]) |
Senator Dan Sullivan raised less but maintained a larger cash-on-hand balance. In comparison, Senator Dan S. Sullivan (R) had raised $11,735,898 and reported a cash-on-hand balance of $7,295,069 as of July 29, 2026 [^][^]. These figures indicate that while Peltola recorded higher total receipts, Senator Sullivan maintained a greater cash-on-hand balance during this pre-primary period.
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Today, August 18, 2026, Alaska is holding its nonpartisan primary election to select the top four candidates who will advance to the November 3, 2026, general election [^] [^] [^] [^] . Incumbent U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan and former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola are the front-runners among 16 candidates in the Senate primary, with both heavily favored to secure advancement to the general election [^][^][^][^]. Official vote percentage results for Mary Peltola in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary are not yet available as of today, August 18, 2026, due to the ongoing election [^].
Prediction markets currently indicate a tight race for the general election. Mary Peltola's implied probability of winning ranges from approximately 51% to 63% across various platforms as of August 2026 [^][^][^]. Key catalysts for the general election include the ability of candidates to consolidate partisan support, the effectiveness of ranked-choice voting redistribution, national political trends, and the performance of non-incumbent candidates on the ballot [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 18, 2027
- Closes: August 18, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Today, August 18, 2026, Alaska is holding its nonpartisan primary election to select the top four candidates who will advance to the November 3, 2026, general election [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Incumbent U.S.
- Trigger: Senator Dan Sullivan and former U.S.
- Trigger: Representative Mary Peltola are the front-runners among 16 candidates in the Senate primary, with both heavily favored to secure advancement to the general election [^] [^] [^] [^] .
14. Related News
15. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-45: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-40: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-35: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-30: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-25: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
