Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Mary Peltola to receive at least 30% of the vote in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. Peltola received 50.4% of the vote in the 2024 Alaska primary.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action is defined by an extreme, two-day gap. The contract price jumped from 0.0% on August 14 to 90.0% and then to 99.0% by August 15. It has since held this near-100% level. This initial, decisive price movement was reportedly driven by misinformation. The primary election itself was not scheduled until August 18, making any vote count data circulating on August 14 or 15 premature and without a factual basis.
The total volume of 3,627 contracts is moderate, but sample data indicates zero volume traded during the key price spikes on August 14 and 15. This lack of participation suggests the initial gapping move was not the result of broad-based trading activity but may reflect an administrative price set or a single market-maker adjustment. The price has established a firm ceiling at 99.0%, which has acted as resistance. While the current price reflects overwhelming market sentiment for a high vote share for Peltola, this conviction was established on a flawed premise before any valid information was available.
  • Mary Peltola is a frontrunner, leading most primary polls for at least 30% vote share.
  • Her 50.4% vote share in the 2024 primary suggests potential for 50% or more.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
At least 30% 99.0% 98.5% Mary Peltola is a frontrunner with a historical primary vote share of 50.4% in 2024.
At least 50% 85.0% 80.9% Mary Peltola received 50.4% of the vote in the 2024 primary, achieving this threshold.
At least 35% 98.0% 97.1% Mary Peltola received 50.4% of the vote in the 2024 primary, indicating strong historical support.
At least 40% 92.0% 88.7% Her historical primary vote shares include 50.4% in 2024, showing a positive outlook.
At least 45% 65.0% 80.9% Mary Peltola, a frontrunner, received 50.4% in the 2024 Alaska primary.

Current Context

Alaska's U.S. Senate primary is underway; official results are pending. The primary election is being held today, August 18, 2026, with polling places open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. AKDT [1][2][3]. Official vote percentages for Mary Peltola are not yet available, as the election is ongoing [4][5][6]. The Alaska Division of Elections expects to release the first set of unofficial results between 8:45 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. AKDT tonight [7][8][2][3].
Alaska's primary uses a top-four system; Peltola and Sullivan lead. The Senate race features 16 candidates in a nonpartisan top-four primary [9][10][2][11][3][12]. Under this system, all candidates appear on one ballot regardless of party, and the top four vote-getters advance to the November 3, 2026, general election [12][9][10][2][11][3]. The general election will determine the winner via ranked-choice voting [9][10][2][11][3]. Mary Peltola, who filed her candidacy on January 12, 2026 [6][13][14], and incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan are considered the frontrunners among the 16 candidates [15][9][10][3].
Sources (15)
  1. 1Election Informationelections.alaska.gov
  2. 2What to know about Tuesday’s primary electionalaskapublic.org
  3. 3Alaska’s primary election day is Tuesday. Here’s what to know. - Anchorage Daily Newsadn.com
  4. 42026 Alaska US Senate | Live Election Resultsnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026 (August 18...ballotpedia.org
  6. 6United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026ballotpedia.org
  7. 7Alaska Senate primary results live: Dan Sullivan, Mary...washingtonpost.com
  8. 82026 Alaska Primary Live Results270towin.com
  9. 9Live Results: Alaska midterm primariespbs.org
  10. 10What to expect in Alaska’s state primary | AP Newsapnews.com
  11. 112026 Voter Guide • Alaskaalaskabeacon.com
  12. 12United States Senate top-four primaries, 2026ballotpedia.org
  13. 13FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1931952docquery.fec.gov
  14. 14PELTOLA, MARY - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
  15. 15Parties are looking past Alaska's primary to pivotal matchups in the fall | AP Newsapnews.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: At least 50%

📈 August 18, 2026: 55.0pp spike

Price increased from 30.0% to 85.0%

What happened: The 55.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on August 18, 2026, for Mary Peltola's vote percentage in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary, appears primarily driven by an erroneous association with her historical 2022 U.S. House general election victory margin of 55.0% [1][2][3]. While no credible news or public data reported a 55.0% vote for Peltola in the 2026 primary [4][5][6], it is plausible that a misinformed social media post, mistakenly attributing her past success to current results, coincided with and triggered this market movement [1][2][3]. Such a viral misattribution of her prior electoral performance would likely be a primary driver for the precisely matching numerical spike in the prediction market.

Outcome: At least 35%

📈 August 15, 2026: 22.0pp spike

Price increased from 74.0% to 96.0%

What happened: The reported 22.0 percentage point spike in Mary Peltola's vote percent on August 15, 2026, is not supported by available information [7][8][9][10][11]. The Alaska U.S. Senate primary election is occurring on August 18, 2026, which makes any vote percentage movement on August 15 premature [12][13][14]. There is no verified evidence in expert-curated sources of a 22 percentage point vote spike for Mary Peltola occurring on August 15, 2026 [12][13]. Therefore, social media activity or other drivers for this specific market movement cannot be identified as the event itself lacks factual grounding.

Outcome: At least 30%

📈 August 14, 2026: 90.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 90.0%

What happened: The primary driver for this prediction market price movement appears to be rooted in misinformation, as the Alaska U.S. Senate primary election is scheduled for August 18, 2026, making any vote percentage results for Mary Peltola unavailable on August 14, 2026 [10][15][16]. Claims of a 30% vote percentage spike or a 90% share for Peltola on that date are unsupported by election data and appear misinformed [7][8][9][16]. Therefore, if the market experienced a 90.0 percentage point spike, it was likely influenced by the rapid dissemination of unverified information. In this scenario, social media would be a primary driver by propagating such false claims.
Sources (16)
  1. 1United States House election in Alaska, 2024 (August 20...ballotpedia.org
  2. 2United States House of Representatives election in Alaska,...ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Alaska's At-Large Congressional Districtballotpedia.org
  4. 4Kalshi vs Polymarket Arbitrage Scanner | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Group Stage — Historical market archive | Orrery | Orreryorrery.me
  6. 6The E.W. Scripps Company (SSP) Stock Quote & Options Analysis | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  7. 7Alaska U.S. Senate All-Party Primary Election Live Results 2026 | AP Newsapnews.com
  8. 8Alaska Senate primary results live: Dan Sullivan, Mary...washingtonpost.com
  9. 9Here are Alaska's 2026 primary election results | KNKX Public Radioknkx.org
  10. 102026 Alaska Primary Live Results270towin.com
  11. 11Live Results: Alaska midterm primaries | PBS Newspbs.org
  12. 12United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026 (August 18...ballotpedia.org
  13. 132026 Alaska US Senate | Live Election Resultsnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  14. 14United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026ballotpedia.org
  15. 15Polls open at 7 a.m. on Alaska’s pick-one, top-four statewide primary election day | Alaska Beaconalaskabeacon.com
  16. 162026 Alaska US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For contracts in this market, a "YES" resolution occurs if Mary Peltola's officially certified vote percentage in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary meets or exceeds the specific percentage stated in the contract (e.g., "At least 50%"). Conversely, a "NO" resolution occurs if her officially certified vote percentage falls below that specified percentage. Settlement for these contracts will only take place after the election results are officially certified.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
At least 30% $1.00 $0.02 99%
At least 35% $0.99 $0.07 98%
At least 40% $0.97 $0.09 92%
At least 50% $0.35 $0.72 85%
At least 45% $0.72 $0.35 65%
At least 55% $0.10 $0.97 32%

Market Discussion

Mary Peltola is a widely considered frontrunner in Alaska's all-party U.S. Senate primary, held on August 18, 2026, where the top four vote-getters advance to the general election [1][2][3][4]. Polling leading up to the primary showed Peltola leading in most surveys by 2 to 7 percentage points, though some indicated a narrower margin or a tie [5][6][7]. As of August 18, 2026, election results from the primary are ongoing and have not yet been fully tabulated or finalized [8][9].

Sources (9)
  1. 1Parties are looking past Alaska's primary to pivotal matchups in the fall | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 2Live Results: Alaska midterm primariespbs.org
  3. 3Alaska Senate primary tests Sullivan-Peltola racewashingtonexaminer.com
  4. 4United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026 (August 18...ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Alaska Was Safe Trump Territory. Now Republicans Are on Defense - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  6. 6Alaska U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  7. 7Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan: Alaska Senate Primary Final Polls - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  8. 82026 Alaska US Senate | Live Election Resultsnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 92026 Alaska US House At-Large | Live Election Resultsintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com

5. How has Mary Peltola's polling compared to Dan Sullivan's in the final weeks leading into the August 2026 primary?

Peltola lead (August 2026 poll)50.8% (Alaska Survey Research) [1][2][3][4]
Sullivan lead (June 2026 poll)47% (New York Times/Siena University) [1][2][3][4]
Peltola Polymarket odds92% (Polymarket) [3][5]
Mary Peltola generally led Dan Sullivan in most primary polls. Polling conducted in the final weeks before the August 18, 2026, Alaska primary consistently indicated a close contest between Democratic challenger Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Most surveys showed Peltola holding a narrow advantage [1][2][3][4]. For instance, an Alaska Survey Research poll conducted from August 2–5, 2026, projected Peltola at 50.8 percent and Sullivan at 49.2 percent in a final ranked-choice round simulation [1][2][3][4]. An earlier survey in April 2026 also placed Peltola ahead with 50 percent to Sullivan's 44 percent [6][7].
One poll showed Sullivan ahead, but prediction markets favored Peltola. A New York Times/Siena University poll, conducted from June 15–29, 2026, notably presented an exception, showing incumbent Dan Sullivan leading Mary Peltola 47 percent to 45 percent in the initial round of ranked-choice voting [1][2][3][4]. Despite these varying poll results, prediction markets reflected strong confidence in Mary Peltola as of August 17, 2026. Polymarket odds for the winner of the Alaska Senate primary final round placed Peltola at 92 percent, significantly higher than Sullivan's 8 percent [3][5].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan: Alaska Senate Primary Final Polls - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  2. 2Dan Sullivan Within Striking Distance of Mary Peltola in Alaska Senate Race - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  3. 3Alaska Was Safe Trump Territory. Now Republicans Are on Defense - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  4. 4Alaska Senate Race Is a True Toss-Up as Ranked‑Choice System Adds Drama - CRBC Newscrbcnews.com
  5. 5Alaska Senate Primary Final Round Winner Odds | Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
  6. 6Election 2024 Senate Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  7. 7Election 2024 Senate Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org

6. What is the official timeline for the Alaska Division of Elections to report primary results on and after August 18, 2026?

Initial Preliminary Results ReleaseAugust 18, 2026, between 8:45 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. AKDT [1][2][3][4]
Final Unofficial Results ExpectedBy August 28, 2026 [1][3][4]
Official Certification TargetAugust 31, 2026 [1][3][4]
Initial primary election results expected late on election night. The Alaska Division of Elections anticipates releasing initial preliminary results for the August 18, 2026, primary election between 8:45 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. AKDT [1][2][3][4]. This initial report signals the start of a continuous process of updates as additional ballots are processed. Further key update windows are expected around August 25 and August 28, 2026, as the division works through incoming votes [1][2][3].
Mail-in ballots extend the timeline for final counts. In Alaska, mail-in ballots are considered valid if they are postmarked on or before Election Day, which is August 18, 2026 [5]. Official election results are updated incrementally as these ballots are received and verified. This thorough processing means that the complete count can extend significantly beyond election night [6].
Final unofficial results and certification follow soon after. The Alaska Division of Elections aims to provide final unofficial results by August 28, 2026 [1][3][4]. Following this, the official certification of the primary election is targeted for August 31, 2026 [1][3][4].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Here's when to expect results in Alaska's 2026 statewide...alaskabeacon.com
  2. 2Polls open at 7 a.m. on Alaska’s pick-one, top-four statewide primary election day | Alaska Beaconalaskabeacon.com
  3. 3Here’s when to expect results in Alaska’s 2026 statewide primary electionjuneauindependent.com
  4. 4Election Calendarelections.alaska.gov
  5. 5United States House election in Alaska, 2026 (August 18...ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Election results: Alaska Ballot Measures 1 and 2ballotpedia.org

7. How might the presence of 14 other candidates on the ballot impact the final vote distribution between Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan?

Number of other candidates14 (expected to impact vote distribution) [1][2][3][4]
Incumbent Senator's concernVoter confusion and dilution of Republican vote due to Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. [5][1][2][6][7][8]
Mary Peltola's vote focusPrimary vote percentage of 45% or higher (prediction market focus) [9][10][11]
A crowded ballot with 14 candidates will impact vote distribution. The presence of 14 other candidates on the ballot is expected to significantly influence the final vote distribution for both Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan [1][2][3][4]. This extensive field, which notably includes a candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., is seen by analysts as a factor that could dilute the vote shares of leading candidates and potentially favor those with a more consolidated base of support [8][12][13].
Incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan faces concerns about voter confusion. For incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan, the inclusion of 14 other candidates, especially Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., has raised concerns within his campaign regarding potential voter confusion and the fragmentation of the Republican vote [5][1][2][6][7][8]. Analysts and prediction markets suggest this large field could complicate the incumbent's path by impacting primary vote distribution [1][2][3][4]. The incumbent senator has also expressed suspicions that challenger Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. was strategically placed to confuse voters and potentially shift votes towards Mary Peltola [7][8].
Mary Peltola's primary vote percentage is a key focus. Regarding Democrat Mary Peltola, prediction markets are closely watching whether her primary vote percentage will reach or exceed 45% [9][10][11]. This highlights the uncertainty and importance of her vote share in this crowded race.
Sources (13)
  1. 1What to expect in Alaska’s state primary | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 2Democrats eye potential Senate flip in Alaska with 2 Republican Dan Sullivans on the ballot - ABC Newsabcnews.com
  3. 3Live Results: Alaska midterm primaries | PBS Newspbs.org
  4. 42026 Alaska Primary Live Results270towin.com
  5. 5Parties are looking past Alaska's primary to pivotal matchups in the fall | AP Newsapnews.com
  6. 6Alaska Congress U.S. Senate Seat | Voter Guide: 2026 Voter Guide • Alaska Beaconalaskabeacon.com
  7. 7Alaska Supreme Court rules that Dan Sullivan must appear on the state’s U.S. Senate ballot this year - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  8. 8GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan draws an unusual opponent in...ap.org
  9. 9Alaska U.S. Senate primary: Mary Peltola vote percent...kalshi.com
  10. 10Alaska U.S. Senate primary: Mary Peltola vote percentrobinhood.com
  11. 11Alaska U.S. Senate primary: Mary Peltola vote percentcoinbase.com
  12. 12Seventeen candidates compete in top-four primary for open Alaska governor's office - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  13. 13United States House election in Alaska, 2024 (August 20 top-four primary)ballotpedia.org

8. What does historical data from Alaska's top-four primaries indicate about the likely vote ceiling for a leading Democratic candidate like Mary Peltola?

2022 Primary Vote Share36.8% [1][2][3][4]
2024 Primary Vote Share50.4% [1][2][3][4]
Primary Vote Share InfluenceLevel of competition among Republican candidates [5][3][4]
Mary Peltola's vote share varied significantly in Alaska's top-four primary. In this nonpartisan system, she secured 36.8% of the vote in the 2022 regular primary, increasing to 50.4% in the 2024 primary [1][2][3][4]. Her primary vote share is notably influenced by the level of competition among Republican candidates, as evidenced by her achieving over 50% in 2024 amidst low overall turnout and active Republican competition [5][3][4].
Alaska's top-four primary system influences outcomes and prediction accuracy. This system is designed to facilitate moderate results by allowing crossover voting, enabling incumbents like Peltola to garner support beyond their Democratic base [6][7][8][9]. However, the consolidated ballot means a leading candidate's primary share reflects the number of candidates from various parties, rather than indicating a two-party partisan ceiling [10][11]. While Peltola's near 50% primary performance demonstrates significant political strength, analysts caution that low primary turnout can make general election predictions challenging [7][4].
Sources (11)
  1. 12022 United States House of Representatives elections in Alaska - electowikielectowiki.org
  2. 2Preliminary results from Alaska's top-four U.S. House primary - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Peltola leads in Alaska U.S. House primary, with Begich...alaskabeacon.com
  4. 4Results roll in: Peltola, Begich, Dahlstrom, Salisbury are top four - Must Read Alaskamustreadalaska.com
  5. 5Peltola leads Alaska’s primary results amid low turnout - Anchorage Daily Newsadn.com
  6. 6Assessing Alaska's top-4 primary and ranked choice voting...scholarworks.alaska.edu
  7. 7Electoral Innovation and the Alaska System: Partisanship and Populism Are Associated With Support for Top-4/Ranked-Choice Voting Rulesopenprimaries.org
  8. 8Peltola finishes well ahead of rivals in Alaska primary – Roll Callrollcall.com
  9. 9Alaska’s New Electoral System: Countering Polarization or “Crooked as Hell”?escholarship.org
  10. 10United States House election in Alaska, 2024 (August 20...ballotpedia.org
  11. 11United States House of Representatives special election in Alaska, 2022 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

9. How do the fundraising totals and cash-on-hand for Mary Peltola and Dan S. Sullivan compare based on the final pre-primary FEC filings?

Mary Peltola Total Receipts$18,545,132 (July 29, 2026 [1][2])
Dan S. Sullivan Total Raised$11,735,898 (July 29, 2026 [3])
Dan S. Sullivan Cash on Hand$7,295,069 (July 29, 2026 [3][4])
Mary Peltola reported substantial pre-primary fundraising and cash-on-hand. Based on the final pre-primary FEC filings covering the period ending July 29, 2026, Mary Peltola (D) reported total receipts of $18,545,132.43 and held $4,636,755 in cash-on-hand [1][2].
Senator Dan Sullivan raised less but maintained a larger cash-on-hand balance. In comparison, Senator Dan S. Sullivan (R) had raised $11,735,898 and reported a cash-on-hand balance of $7,295,069 as of July 29, 2026 [3][4]. These figures indicate that while Peltola recorded higher total receipts, Senator Sullivan maintained a greater cash-on-hand balance during this pre-primary period.
Sources (4)
  1. 1PELTOLA, MARY - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
  2. 2Can Alaska's Mary Peltola Fish for Enough Cash to Compete with GOP Megadonors?insidepoliticalmoney.com
  3. 3United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026 (August 18...ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Fundraising Update: Senator Dan Sullivan just disclosed $512.3K of new fundraising | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Today, August 18, 2026, Alaska is holding its nonpartisan primary election to select the top four candidates who will advance to the November 3, 2026, general election [1][2][3][4]. Incumbent U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan and former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola are the front-runners among 16 candidates in the Senate primary, with both heavily favored to secure advancement to the general election [1][2][5][3]. Official vote percentage results for Mary Peltola in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary are not yet available as of today, August 18, 2026, due to the ongoing election [6].
Prediction markets currently indicate a tight race for the general election. Mary Peltola's implied probability of winning ranges from approximately 51% to 63% across various platforms as of August 2026 [7][8][9]. Key catalysts for the general election include the ability of candidates to consolidate partisan support, the effectiveness of ranked-choice voting redistribution, national political trends, and the performance of non-incumbent candidates on the ballot [8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 18, 2027
  • Closes: August 18, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1Parties are looking past Alaska's primary to pivotal matchups in the fall | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 2Live Results: Alaska midterm primariespbs.org
  3. 3Alaska Senate primary tests Sullivan-Peltola racewashingtonexaminer.com
  4. 42026 United States Senate election in Alaskaen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5What to expect in Alaska’s state primary | AP Newsapnews.com
  6. 62026 Alaska US Senate | Live Election Resultsnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com
  8. 8Will Mary Peltola Win the Alaska Senate Election?lines.com
  9. 9Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race? | Paritypredictparity.com

12. Related News

+55.0pp
Last updated: August 18, 2026, 15:04 UTC

Election Day Trading Lifts Odds of Peltola Clearing 50% in Alaska Primary

As Alaskans headed to the polls for the state's primary election on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, prediction markets priced in a surge of confidence for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mary Peltola. The ...

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-45: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-40: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-35: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-30: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-25: NO (Aug 14, 2026)