Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that David Crowley won the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- David Crowley won the primary, defeating Francesca Hong by a narrow 0.42 to 0.48 percentage point margin.
- Crowley secured his victory despite public polls consistently positioning Hong as the front-runner.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
David Crowley won the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by a narrow margin. On August 11, 2026, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated Madison state Representative Francesca Hong. Crowley secured 39.81% of the vote, while Hong received 39.33%, resulting in an approximate margin of 0.48 percentage points [^][^][^]. Another report indicated Crowley won with 313,509 votes (39.80%) against Hong's 310,230 votes (39.38%), reflecting a 0.42 percentage point margin [^].
Crowley's victory marked a significant comeback following an earlier campaign suspension. He had previously suspended his campaign in early July before re-entering the race with an endorsement from Governor Tony Evers [^][^][^]. This primary win was largely considered an upset [^][^]. Crowley is now slated to face Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany in the general election on November 3, 2026 [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market, which tracked the probability of Francesca Hong winning the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by at least 30 percentage points, opened with a "YES" probability of 46.0% and trended consistently downward to its current price near zero. The definitive price movement was a 28.0 percentage point drop on August 05, 2026, from 41.5% to 13.5%. This repricing was reportedly driven by the late endorsement of David Crowley by incumbent Governor Tony Evers, an event that significantly diminished the market's expectation of a landslide victory for Hong just days before the August 11 primary.
Following the primary election, the price collapsed further, settling at 0.2%. This final price reflects the actual outcome where David Crowley won by a narrow margin of approximately 0.42 to 0.48 percentage points, definitively resolving the market against the "YES" position. The initial price of 46.0% can be seen as an early high, but no meaningful support or resistance levels formed.
Total volume traded was zero contracts. This lack of participation suggests the price action reflected shifts in theoretical odds based on public information rather than conviction expressed through traded capital. The market began with moderate optimism for a large Hong victory margin but demonstrated high sensitivity to a single, decisive news event that reversed sentiment entirely.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 August 05, 2026: 28.0pp drop
Price decreased from 41.5% to 13.5%
Outcome: Hong 30%+
What happened: The primary driver of the 28.0 percentage point drop for the "Hong 30%+" outcome was likely the traditional news development of David Crowley securing a late endorsement from Governor Tony Evers [^][^]. This significant endorsement, occurring close to the August 11, 2026, primary, would have drastically reduced the perceived likelihood of Francesca Hong winning by a margin of 30% or more, especially as Crowley ultimately defeated Hong [^][^][^]. There is no information provided about social media activity from key figures or viral narratives coinciding with or leading this specific price movement on August 05, 2026. Therefore, social media was not a primary driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This prediction market will resolve based on the "margin of victory" in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election, defined as the absolute difference in valid vote percentages between the top two candidates. A "YES" resolution occurs for the specific outcome (candidate win or margin bracket) that matches the official results, while a "NO" resolves for all other options.
The election is scheduled for August 11, 2026, and the market resolves to "Other" if official results are not known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Special conditions include resolving to the higher margin bracket if the value falls exactly between two, and specific rules for tied candidates at the top, potentially delaying resolution for recounts.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
The market reflects an overwhelming consensus that David Crowley has won the Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary. Traders believe the outcome is confirmed, with Crowley securing a narrow victory over Francesca Hong by a margin of 0.4% (39.8% to 39.4%). The market's high probability for "Crowley wins" (99%) indicates that participants are awaiting official resolution based on these results, with comments urging for prompt market resolution.
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Hong 30%+PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Hong 25–30%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Hong 20–25%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Hong 15–20%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Hong 10–15%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Hong 5–10%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Hong <5%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Crowley winsTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Barnes winsTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
OtherTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 18, 2026
6. What was the specific impact of Governor Tony Evers' late-stage endorsement on David Crowley's campaign momentum before the August 11 primary?
| Crowley Primary Vote Share | 39.80% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Hong Primary Vote Share | 39.38% [^][^][^] |
| Evers' Endorsement Date | July 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
Governor Tony Evers' late endorsement critically shifted David Crowley's campaign momentum. Evers' endorsement on July 18, 2026, upon Crowley's re-entry into the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, was a crucial turning point [^][^][^][^]. This endorsement was instrumental in revitalizing Crowley's candidacy, successfully mobilizing his supporters and consolidating moderate and undecided voters, ultimately leading to his victory in the August 11, 2026, primary [^].
Crowley's support significantly surged, defying earlier polling and prediction markets. Following Evers' endorsement, Crowley's support increased from 3 percent in March to 7 percent in late July, culminating in nearly 40 percent of the vote in the primary [^]. He secured the Democratic primary victory with 39.80% of the vote, narrowly surpassing Francesca Hong, who received 39.38% [^][^][^]. This outcome contradicted earlier polling that had consistently favored Hong [^]. Prediction markets, initially indicating a strong lead for Hong, adjusted to predict a narrow win for Crowley after his campaign gained national attention and momentum from Evers' active involvement [^][^][^]. The endorsement also highlighted a split within the state Democratic Party between establishment figures and progressive supporters of Hong [^][^].
7. Which regional voting patterns and demographic turnout explain David Crowley's narrow victory over Francesca Hong in the 2026 primary?
| Primary vote margin | 0.4 percentage points [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Crowley's total vote share | 39.8% [^][^][^][^] |
| Hong's Madison win margin | approximately 7 percentage points [^] |
David Crowley narrowly defeated Francesca Hong in the 2026 Democratic primary. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley secured the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary nomination by a slim margin of 0.4 percentage points, receiving 39.8% of the vote compared to Francesca Hong's 39.4% [^][^][^][^]. Crowley's victory was largely attributed to his moderate political platform, the significant endorsement from incumbent Governor Tony Evers, and a successful consolidation of undecided and moderate voters. His campaign experienced a late-stage surge, particularly after other candidates, such as Mandela Barnes, withdrew from the race, further uniting centrist support behind him [^][^][^][^].
Regional voting patterns and demographic turnout shaped the election outcome. Crowley built his winning coalition by garnering strong support in predominantly Black urban neighborhoods within Milwaukee, alongside more suburban areas like the North Shore and the southwestern suburbs [^][^]. In contrast, Francesca Hong's primary support primarily originated from liberal strongholds, including Madison (Dane County), Milwaukee’s east side, and various college towns across Wisconsin [^][^]. Hong performed especially well among younger voters, notably winning the city of Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin-Madison, by approximately 7 percentage points [^]. While her progressive, democratic socialist campaign energized the party's left flank and attracted significant youth support, it also faced late-stage national scrutiny over previous social media posts [^][^][^]. This scrutiny raised concerns among the Democratic base regarding her potential viability in the general election [^][^][^].
8. How did the campaign platforms of Francesca Hong and David Crowley compare on key policy issues for Wisconsin's Democratic voters?
| Hong's Ideology | Democratic Socialist, progressive policies [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Crowley's Ideology | Moderate establishment alternative, electability focus [^][^] |
| Key Policy Conflict | School vouchers and AI data center moratorium [^][^] |
Hong and Crowley presented contrasting platforms in the 2026 primary. The August 11, 2026, Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary showcased a clear ideological divide between Francesca Hong, who ran as a democratic socialist, and David Crowley, who positioned himself as a moderate establishment candidate [^]. Hong advocated for progressive policies such as universal childcare, free school meals, BadgerCare expansion, and a moratorium on new AI data center construction [^][^]. Conversely, Crowley emphasized his experience as Milwaukee County Executive, fiscal stability, and general election electability, earning an endorsement from incumbent Governor Tony Evers [^][^].
Specific policy disputes and electability concerns defined the primary’s latter stages. Hong's platform also included proposals to fully fund public schools, guarantee paid leave, lower healthcare costs, and eliminate school vouchers [^][^]. Crowley directly opposed Hong’s specific proposals to eliminate school vouchers and implement a data center moratorium [^][^]. The primary contest ultimately became a debate over general election viability, with Crowley gaining momentum amid concerns regarding Hong's past controversial stances, including support for defunding police and certain comments about Thanksgiving [^][^][^].
9. What did public polling data from July and August 2026 reveal about the trajectory of the Democratic gubernatorial primary between Hong and Crowley?
| Hong's poll lead (late July) | 38% to 7% over Crowley [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Crowley's primary vote | 39.80% [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Hong's primary vote | 39.38% [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Public polls consistently showed Hong as the clear front-runner. Public polling data from July and early August 2026 consistently positioned state Representative Francesca Hong as the clear front-runner against David Crowley in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary [^][^][^][^][^]. Polls indicated Hong held leads ranging from double digits, such as 38% to 7% in late July, to 2-to-1 advantages like 44% to 22% in early August [^][^][^][^][^]. A Marquette Law School poll in late July 2026 also showed Hong with a significant lead, though a substantial number of voters remained undecided [^][^].
Crowley secured an upset victory despite earlier polling. Despite consistent polling favoring Hong and prediction markets overwhelmingly supporting her, David Crowley won the primary on August 11, 2026, in a razor-thin upset [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Crowley's campaign had a temporary suspension in early July before re-entering the race, notably backed by an endorsement from outgoing Governor Tony Evers, a factor largely unmeasured by pollsters and pundits at the time [^][^][^]. His reentry followed Mandela Barnes' departure from the race, allowing Crowley to position himself as a centrist alternative to the progressive Francesca Hong [^][^].
10. How did the fundraising totals and key funding sources differ between the Francesca Hong and David Crowley campaigns in the final reporting period?
| Crowley Fundraising | $776,000 (July 1–July 27, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Hong Fundraising | $339,000 (July 1–July 27, 2026) [^][^][^] |
| Hong Small-Dollar Contributions | Over 99% from individuals, 95% $100 or less [^][^] |
David Crowley's campaign relied heavily on institutional and union support. Key contributions to his fundraising total during this period included $20,000 from Governor Tony Evers' campaign account [^][^]. Furthermore, close to half of the total funds he garnered in this specific timeframe were reported to come from unions [^][^].
Francesca Hong's campaign primarily drew support from small individual donors. Her fundraising efforts were largely driven by grassroots contributions from small-dollar donors [^][^]. A significant majority, over 99%, of her total contributions originated from individuals, with approximately 95% of these individual contributions being $100 or less [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won the August 11, 2026, Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor by a margin of less than 0.5 percentage points against state Representative Francesca Hong [^] [^] . Crowley secured 313,509 votes (39.80%) to Hong's 310,230 votes (39.38%), a difference of 3,279 votes or approximately 0.42 percentage points [^][^]. This outcome was considered an upset in the race [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: August 11, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won the August 11, 2026, Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor by a margin of less than 0.5 percentage points against state Representative Francesca Hong [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Crowley secured 313,509 votes (39.80%) to Hong's 310,230 votes (39.38%), a difference of 3,279 votes or approximately 0.42 percentage points [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This outcome was considered an upset in the race [^] .
- Trigger: Crowley's primary victory followed a significant comeback; he had initially dropped out of the race on July 8, 2026, before re-entering on July 18, 2026, with the endorsement of Governor Tony Evers [^] [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
