Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that David Crowley won the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, which tracked the probability of Francesca Hong winning the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by at least 30 percentage points, opened with a "YES" probability of 46.0% and trended consistently downward to its current price near zero. The definitive price movement was a 28.0 percentage point drop on August 05, 2026, from 41.5% to 13.5%. This repricing was reportedly driven by the late endorsement of David Crowley by incumbent Governor Tony Evers, an event that significantly diminished the market's expectation of a landslide victory for Hong just days before the August 11 primary.
Following the primary election, the price collapsed further, settling at 0.2%. This final price reflects the actual outcome where David Crowley won by a narrow margin of approximately 0.42 to 0.48 percentage points, definitively resolving the market against the "YES" position. The initial price of 46.0% can be seen as an early high, but no meaningful support or resistance levels formed.
Total volume traded was zero contracts. This lack of participation suggests the price action reflected shifts in theoretical odds based on public information rather than conviction expressed through traded capital. The market began with moderate optimism for a large Hong victory margin but demonstrated high sensitivity to a single, decisive news event that reversed sentiment entirely.
  • David Crowley won the primary, defeating Francesca Hong by a narrow 0.42 to 0.48 percentage point margin.
  • Crowley secured his victory despite public polls consistently positioning Hong as the front-runner.

Current Context

David Crowley won the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by a narrow margin. On August 11, 2026, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated Madison state Representative Francesca Hong. Crowley secured 39.81% of the vote, while Hong received 39.33%, resulting in an approximate margin of 0.48 percentage points [1][2][3]. Another report indicated Crowley won with 313,509 votes (39.80%) against Hong's 310,230 votes (39.38%), reflecting a 0.42 percentage point margin [4].
Crowley's victory marked a significant comeback following an earlier campaign suspension. He had previously suspended his campaign in early July before re-entering the race with an endorsement from Governor Tony Evers [5][6][7]. This primary win was largely considered an upset [7][8]. Crowley is now slated to face Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany in the general election on November 3, 2026 [3][6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Wisconsin Governor Primary Election Resultsnytimes.com
  2. 2Wisconsin Governor Primary Election 2026 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
  3. 3David Crowley’s win sets up Wisconsin race with Trump-backed Tom Tiffany | AP Newsapnews.com
  4. 42026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5Wisconsin’s Democratic race for governor remains too close to callwisconsinwatch.org
  6. 6Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primaryjsonline.com
  7. 7How David Crowley upset Wisconsin’s governor’s race | CNN Politicscnn.com
  8. 8Moderate Democrat Projected to Win Wisconsin Primary; Trump Claims Hormuz Control | Bloomberg...youtube.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 August 05, 2026: 28.0pp drop

Price decreased from 41.5% to 13.5%

Outcome: Hong 30%+

What happened: The primary driver of the 28.0 percentage point drop for the "Hong 30%+" outcome was likely the traditional news development of David Crowley securing a late endorsement from Governor Tony Evers [1][2]. This significant endorsement, occurring close to the August 11, 2026, primary, would have drastically reduced the perceived likelihood of Francesca Hong winning by a margin of 30% or more, especially as Crowley ultimately defeated Hong [3][4][5]. There is no information provided about social media activity from key figures or viral narratives coinciding with or leading this specific price movement on August 05, 2026. Therefore, social media was not a primary driver.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Wisconsin’s Democratic race for governor remains too close to callwisconsinwatch.org
  2. 2Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primaryusatoday.com
  3. 3Wisconsin Governor Primary Election 2026 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
  4. 4Francesca Hong and David Crowley battle for the lead in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governornbcnews.com
  5. 52026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This prediction market will resolve based on the "margin of victory" in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election, defined as the absolute difference in valid vote percentages between the top two candidates. A "YES" resolution occurs for the specific outcome (candidate win or margin bracket) that matches the official results, while a "NO" resolves for all other options.

The election is scheduled for August 11, 2026, and the market resolves to "Other" if official results are not known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Special conditions include resolving to the higher margin bracket if the value falls exactly between two, and specific rules for tied candidates at the top, potentially delaying resolution for recounts.

Market Discussion

The market reflects an overwhelming consensus that David Crowley has won the Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary. Traders believe the outcome is confirmed, with Crowley securing a narrow victory over Francesca Hong by a margin of 0.4% (39.8% to 39.4%). The market's high probability for "Crowley wins" (99%) indicates that participants are awaiting official resolution based on these results, with comments urging for prompt market resolution.

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 18, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality17
Poor
Liquidity
17

10 contracts · worst first

Crowley wins17
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Hong <5%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Hong 5–10%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Hong 15–20%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Hong 30%+—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Hong 25–30%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Hong 20–25%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Hong 10–15%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Barnes wins—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Other—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

Move quality
—

No reading right now

10 contracts · worst first

Crowley wins—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Hong <5%—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Hong 5–10%—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Hong 15–20%—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Hong 30%+—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Hong 25–30%—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Hong 20–25%—
Only 0 candle closes

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Hong 10–15%—
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Barnes wins—
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Other—
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Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

10 contracts · worst first

Crowley wins100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Hong <5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Hong 5–10%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Hong 15–20%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Hong 30%+100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Hong 25–30%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Hong 20–25%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Hong 10–15%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Barnes wins100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Other100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 18, 2026

6. What was the specific impact of Governor Tony Evers' late-stage endorsement on David Crowley's campaign momentum before the August 11 primary?

Crowley Primary Vote Share39.80% [1][2][3]
Hong Primary Vote Share39.38% [1][2][3]
Evers' Endorsement DateJuly 18, 2026 [4][5][6][7]
Governor Tony Evers' late endorsement critically shifted David Crowley's campaign momentum. Evers' endorsement on July 18, 2026, upon Crowley's re-entry into the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, was a crucial turning point [4][5][6][7]. This endorsement was instrumental in revitalizing Crowley's candidacy, successfully mobilizing his supporters and consolidating moderate and undecided voters, ultimately leading to his victory in the August 11, 2026, primary [4].
Crowley's support significantly surged, defying earlier polling and prediction markets. Following Evers' endorsement, Crowley's support increased from 3 percent in March to 7 percent in late July, culminating in nearly 40 percent of the vote in the primary [4]. He secured the Democratic primary victory with 39.80% of the vote, narrowly surpassing Francesca Hong, who received 39.38% [1][2][3]. This outcome contradicted earlier polling that had consistently favored Hong [4]. Prediction markets, initially indicating a strong lead for Hong, adjusted to predict a narrow win for Crowley after his campaign gained national attention and momentum from Evers' active involvement [4][8][9]. The endorsement also highlighted a split within the state Democratic Party between establishment figures and progressive supporters of Hong [1][6].
Sources (9)
  1. 1David Crowley (D) defeated Joel Brennan (D), Francesca...news.ballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4The 'Crowley comeback' defied the odds, and reset expectations - WPRwpr.org
  5. 5Wisconsin and Minnesota primaries next to feature... - AP.orgap.org
  6. 6Wisconsin Democrats ask state commission to let mail-in voters recast ballots after changes to gubernatorial candidate field - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  7. 7Mandela Barnes drops out of the Democratic primary for...ap.org
  8. 8Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory...polymarket.com
  9. 9Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory...polymarket.com

7. Which regional voting patterns and demographic turnout explain David Crowley's narrow victory over Francesca Hong in the 2026 primary?

Primary vote margin0.4 percentage points [1][2][3][4]
Crowley's total vote share39.8% [1][2][3][4]
Hong's Madison win marginapproximately 7 percentage points [5]
David Crowley narrowly defeated Francesca Hong in the 2026 Democratic primary. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley secured the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary nomination by a slim margin of 0.4 percentage points, receiving 39.8% of the vote compared to Francesca Hong's 39.4% [1][2][3][4]. Crowley's victory was largely attributed to his moderate political platform, the significant endorsement from incumbent Governor Tony Evers, and a successful consolidation of undecided and moderate voters. His campaign experienced a late-stage surge, particularly after other candidates, such as Mandela Barnes, withdrew from the race, further uniting centrist support behind him [1][6][7][8].
Regional voting patterns and demographic turnout shaped the election outcome. Crowley built his winning coalition by garnering strong support in predominantly Black urban neighborhoods within Milwaukee, alongside more suburban areas like the North Shore and the southwestern suburbs [3][8]. In contrast, Francesca Hong's primary support primarily originated from liberal strongholds, including Madison (Dane County), Milwaukee’s east side, and various college towns across Wisconsin [3][8]. Hong performed especially well among younger voters, notably winning the city of Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin-Madison, by approximately 7 percentage points [5]. While her progressive, democratic socialist campaign energized the party's left flank and attracted significant youth support, it also faced late-stage national scrutiny over previous social media posts [9][5][10]. This scrutiny raised concerns among the Democratic base regarding her potential viability in the general election [2][3][9].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Wisconsin’s Democratic race for governor remains too close to callwisconsinwatch.org
  2. 2Francesca Hong and David Crowley battle for the lead in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governornbcnews.com
  3. 3Breaking Down David Crowley’s Win in the Wild Democratic Primarymilwaukeemag.com
  4. 4Moderate Democrat Projected to Win Wisconsin Primary; Trump Claims Hormuz Control | Bloomberg...youtube.com
  5. 5Forget left vs. center. Democratic voters are making clear they...ap.org
  6. 6David Crowley’s win sets up Wisconsin race with Trump-backed Tom Tiffany | AP Newsapnews.com
  7. 7In upset, moderate David Crowley defeats democratic socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin gubernatorial primary - CBS Newscbsnews.com
  8. 8David Crowley Wins an Upset with a Familiar Coalition Behind Himbluebookmke.substack.com
  9. 9David Crowley pulls off stunning comeback victory over Francesca Hongusatoday.com
  10. 10Tuesday's takeaways: No clear direction for Wisconsin...ap.org

8. How did the campaign platforms of Francesca Hong and David Crowley compare on key policy issues for Wisconsin's Democratic voters?

Hong's IdeologyDemocratic Socialist, progressive policies [1][2]
Crowley's IdeologyModerate establishment alternative, electability focus [3][2]
Key Policy ConflictSchool vouchers and AI data center moratorium [3][4]
Hong and Crowley presented contrasting platforms in the 2026 primary. The August 11, 2026, Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary showcased a clear ideological divide between Francesca Hong, who ran as a democratic socialist, and David Crowley, who positioned himself as a moderate establishment candidate [2]. Hong advocated for progressive policies such as universal childcare, free school meals, BadgerCare expansion, and a moratorium on new AI data center construction [1][2]. Conversely, Crowley emphasized his experience as Milwaukee County Executive, fiscal stability, and general election electability, earning an endorsement from incumbent Governor Tony Evers [3][2].
Specific policy disputes and electability concerns defined the primary’s latter stages. Hong's platform also included proposals to fully fund public schools, guarantee paid leave, lower healthcare costs, and eliminate school vouchers [3][5]. Crowley directly opposed Hong’s specific proposals to eliminate school vouchers and implement a data center moratorium [3][4]. The primary contest ultimately became a debate over general election viability, with Crowley gaining momentum amid concerns regarding Hong's past controversial stances, including support for defunding police and certain comments about Thanksgiving [6][4][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Wisconsin governor race: Democratic primary candidates in 2026 | FOX6 Milwaukeefox6now.com
  2. 2Tuesday's takeaways: No clear direction for Wisconsin...ap.org
  3. 3Crowley minimizes policy differences with Hong at campaign eventusatoday.com
  4. 4David Crowley wins Democratic primary for Wisconsin’s…inkl.com
  5. 5David Crowley (D) defeated Joel Brennan (D), Francesca...news.ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Wisconsin Primary: Moderates Hope to Stop Socialist Francesca Hongtime.com
  7. 7David Crowley pulls off upset over Francesca Hong in...nbcnews.com

9. What did public polling data from July and August 2026 reveal about the trajectory of the Democratic gubernatorial primary between Hong and Crowley?

Hong's poll lead (late July)38% to 7% over Crowley [1][2][3][4][5]
Crowley's primary vote39.80% [6][1][7][8][9][10][11]
Hong's primary vote39.38% [6][1][7][8][9][10][11]
Public polls consistently showed Hong as the clear front-runner. Public polling data from July and early August 2026 consistently positioned state Representative Francesca Hong as the clear front-runner against David Crowley in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary [1][2][3][4][5]. Polls indicated Hong held leads ranging from double digits, such as 38% to 7% in late July, to 2-to-1 advantages like 44% to 22% in early August [1][2][3][4][5]. A Marquette Law School poll in late July 2026 also showed Hong with a significant lead, though a substantial number of voters remained undecided [12][13].
Crowley secured an upset victory despite earlier polling. Despite consistent polling favoring Hong and prediction markets overwhelmingly supporting her, David Crowley won the primary on August 11, 2026, in a razor-thin upset [6][1][7][8][9][5][14][15][16]. Crowley's campaign had a temporary suspension in early July before re-entering the race, notably backed by an endorsement from outgoing Governor Tony Evers, a factor largely unmeasured by pollsters and pundits at the time [6][1][8]. His reentry followed Mandela Barnes' departure from the race, allowing Crowley to position himself as a centrist alternative to the progressive Francesca Hong [12][13].
Crowley narrowly won the primary by a slim margin. In the final count, David Crowley received 39.80% of the vote compared to Francesca Hong's 39.38% [6][1][7][8][9][10][11]. This secured his victory by an approximate margin of 0.4 percentage points [6][1][7][8][9][10][11].
Sources (16)
  1. 1Wisconsin’s Democratic race for governor remains too close to callwisconsinwatch.org
  2. 2wisconsin - 2026 democratic primaries - follow-up pollstatenavigate.org
  3. 3Barnes sits second and Crowley thirdlaw.marquette.edu
  4. 4New WI governor poll: Hong still has a 2-to-1 advantage over Crowley in Democratic primaryupnorthnewswi.com
  5. 5Francesca Hong’s Chances of Beating David Crowley in Wisconsin: Final Polls - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  6. 6David Crowley’s win sets up Wisconsin race with Trump-backed Tom Tiffany | AP Newsapnews.com
  7. 7Francesca Hong and David Crowley battle for the lead in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governornbcnews.com
  8. 8How David Crowley upset Wisconsin’s governor’s race | CNN Politicscnn.com
  9. 9In Wisconsin, David Crowley defeats Francesca Hong in Democratic primary for governorwkyufm.org
  10. 102026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  11. 112026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  12. 12Mandela Barnes drops out of the Democratic primary for...ap.org
  13. 13David Crowley (D) defeated Joel Brennan (D), Francesca...news.ballotpedia.org
  14. 14https://polymarket.com/event/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner/will-francesca-hong-win-the-2026-wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-election?r=predictionhunteventspolymarket.com
  15. 15Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner — Compare Odds on 4 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  16. 16Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner Predictions (08/11/2026)deadspin.com

10. How did the fundraising totals and key funding sources differ between the Francesca Hong and David Crowley campaigns in the final reporting period?

Crowley Fundraising$776,000 (July 1–July 27, 2026) [1][2][3]
Hong Fundraising$339,000 (July 1–July 27, 2026) [1][2][3]
Hong Small-Dollar ContributionsOver 99% from individuals, 95% $100 or less [1][4]
Crowley significantly outpaced Hong in fundraising during the final pre-primary period. From July 1 to July 27, 2026, David Crowley's campaign raised approximately $776,000, which was substantially more than Francesca Hong's campaign, which raised about $339,000 [1][2][3].
David Crowley's campaign relied heavily on institutional and union support. Key contributions to his fundraising total during this period included $20,000 from Governor Tony Evers' campaign account [1][3]. Furthermore, close to half of the total funds he garnered in this specific timeframe were reported to come from unions [1][3].
Francesca Hong's campaign primarily drew support from small individual donors. Her fundraising efforts were largely driven by grassroots contributions from small-dollar donors [1][4]. A significant majority, over 99%, of her total contributions originated from individuals, with approximately 95% of these individual contributions being $100 or less [1][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Crowley Outraises Hong in July, Despite Briefly Leaving Race for Governor » Urban Milwaukeeurbanmilwaukee.com
  2. 2Crowley gains late support as Hong confronts social media controversy • Wisconsin Examinerwisconsinexaminer.com
  3. 3David Crowley outraises Francesca Hong in Julynorthernnewsnow.com
  4. 4Francesca Hong Raises Nearly Half a Million Dollars Since July 1, Enters Final Primary Stretch With $406,000 Cash on Hand » Urban Milwaukeeurbanmilwaukee.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won the August 11, 2026, Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor by a margin of less than 0.5 percentage points against state Representative Francesca Hong [1][2]. Crowley secured 313,509 votes (39.80%) to Hong's 310,230 votes (39.38%), a difference of 3,279 votes or approximately 0.42 percentage points [3][4]. This outcome was considered an upset in the race [5].
Crowley's primary victory followed a significant comeback; he had initially dropped out of the race on July 8, 2026, before re-entering on July 18, 2026, with the endorsement of Governor Tony Evers [1][6][7].
Crowley is now slated to face Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany in the Wisconsin gubernatorial general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026 [2][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: August 11, 2026
Sources (8)
  1. 1Wisconsin’s Democratic race for governor remains too close to callwisconsinwatch.org
  2. 2David Crowley’s win sets up Wisconsin race with Trump-backed Tom Tiffany | AP Newsapnews.com
  3. 32026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 42026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5Moderate Democrat Projected to Win Wisconsin Primary; Trump Claims Hormuz Control | Bloomberg...youtube.com
  6. 6Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primaryjsonline.com
  7. 7How David Crowley upset Wisconsin’s governor’s race | CNN Politicscnn.com
  8. 8Crowley upsets Hong to face Trump-backed Tiffany in race for Wisconsin governor | WUWM 89.7 FM - Milwaukee's NPRwuwm.com