Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Abdul El-Sayed won the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary by less than 5%, a result now confirmed by official election outcomes.
1. Executive Verdict
- Abdul El-Sayed winning by less than 5% is confirmed by official election results.
- El-Sayed secured a 1.03 percentage point victory over Haley Stevens.
- All other outcomes are definitively contradicted by the August 4, 2026 results.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
Abdul El-Sayed narrowly won the Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary. He defeated Representative Haley Stevens on August 4, 2026 [^][^][^]. El-Sayed received 48.51% of the vote (742,850 votes) compared to Stevens' 47.48% (727,137 votes) [^]. This resulted in a 1.03 percentage point margin of victory, totaling 15,713 votes, out of over 1.5 million ballots cast [^][^][^][^]. State Senator Mallory McMorrow, despite suspending her campaign in early July 2026, remained on the ballot and secured approximately 4% of the vote [^][^][^].
The competitive primary tested the Democratic party's progressive wing. Major media outlets officially called the race on the morning of August 5, 2026, after Representative Stevens conceded to El-Sayed [^][^][^][^]. El-Sayed's victory was characterized as a narrow win over the Democratic establishment candidate [^][^]. He will now face Republican former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers in the general election on November 3, 2026 [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market, which priced the probability of Abdul El-Sayed winning the Michigan Democratic Senate primary by more than 25 percentage points, saw its value collapse to near zero following the election. The contract's price trended downwards from a starting point of 16.0% to a current price of 0.2%. The definitive price move was a 12.6 percentage point drop on August 5, 2026, which occurred immediately after official election results were released.
The catalyst for the collapse was the narrow margin of victory. El-Sayed was reported to have won the primary with 48.51% of the vote against Haley Stevens' 47.48%. The resulting 1.03 percentage point margin was far short of the threshold for the contract to resolve as "YES". Once this information became public, the market repriced the contract's probability to effectively zero, reflecting the certainty of the outcome.
The total trading volume for this contract was zero. This lack of participation means the price chart does not reflect aggregated trader sentiment or conviction. Instead, the price movements simply tracked the availability of public information. Without trading activity, technical indicators like support and resistance levels are not meaningful. The market's price action demonstrates a direct and efficient incorporation of a binary, publicly-verifiable event outcome rather than a dynamic trading environment.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 August 05, 2026: 12.6pp drop
Price decreased from 12.7% to 0.1%
Outcome: El-Sayed 5–10%
What happened: The primary driver of the 12.6 percentage point drop for the "El-Sayed 5–10%" outcome on August 5, 2026, was the release of official election results for the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. News outlets reported that Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated Haley Stevens by approximately 1 percentage point (48.5% to 47.5%), rather than the 5–10% margin specified by the market outcome [^][^][^][^][^]. This discrepancy between the market's predicted margin and the actual outcome, widely reported in traditional news, caused the price of the "El-Sayed 5–10%" outcome to drop significantly. No social media activity was identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "YES" resolution is triggered for the outcome bracket that precisely matches the absolute difference in official vote percentages between the top two candidates in the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary; otherwise, it resolves "NO" for that specific outcome. The primary election is on August 4, 2026, and the market resolves based on official state results (or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting) by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolving to "Other" if results are not definitive by then. Special conditions include resolving to the higher bracket if the margin falls exactly between two, specific rules for tied candidates, and remaining open during a recount until official certification.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
In the Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary held on August 4, 2026, Abdul El-Sayed defeated Representative Haley Stevens [^][^][^]. El-Sayed won by a margin of 1 percentage point (48.5% to 47.5%), making it a historically narrow victory in one of the most closely watched Democratic Senate primaries in U.S.
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
El-Sayed 5–10%PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
El-Sayed 25%+Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
El-Sayed 20–25%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
El-Sayed 15–20%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
El-Sayed 10–15%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
El-Sayed <5%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Stevens <5%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Stevens 5–10%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Stevens 10–15%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Stevens 15%+Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
OtherTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 18, 2026
6. Which key endorsements did El-Sayed and Stevens secure, and how did they reflect the progressive vs. establishment divide within the Democratic party?
| Primary Election Date | August 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Stevens' Key Establishment Endorsers | Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Senator Gary Peters, Senator Chuck Schumer, Congressional Black Caucus PAC [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| El-Sayed's Key Progressive Endorsers | Senator Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Senator Chris Van Hollen, Rep. Maxwell Frost [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
The Michigan Democratic Senate primary on August 4, 2026, became a significant contest reflecting the Democratic party's internal divisions. Featuring Representative Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed, the race served as a proxy battle between the party's establishment and progressive factions, highlighting a clear ideological split [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Haley Stevens secured endorsements from prominent Democratic establishment figures. Her notable supporters included Governor Gretchen Whitmer, retiring Senator Gary Peters, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Stevens also received backing from the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, further solidifying her position as the candidate favored by the establishment [^][^][^][^][^].
Abdul El-Sayed garnered support from leading progressive Democrats. His endorsements highlighted his appeal to the party's left wing, including Senator Bernie Sanders, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Senator Chris Van Hollen, and Representative Maxwell Frost [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. El-Sayed consistently campaigned as a progressive candidate, reinforcing the ideological divide evident in the primary [^][^][^].
7. How accurate were the final pre-election polls from major pollsters in forecasting the narrow margin between El-Sayed and Stevens?
| El-Sayed Vote Share | 48.51% [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Stevens Vote Share | 47.48% [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Actual Victory Margin | Approximately 1 percentage point [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
The 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary was highly competitive. In the August 4, 2026, Michigan Democratic Senate primary, Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated Haley Stevens. El-Sayed secured 48.51% of the vote, while Stevens received 47.48%. This resulted in an approximate 1 percentage point margin, equating to roughly 15,000 votes [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Most pre-election polls inaccurately predicted a wide El-Sayed victory. Final pre-election polls from major pollsters were largely inaccurate in forecasting this narrow margin. Most polls significantly overestimated El-Sayed's lead, predicting a double-digit victory for him, with some showing leads as large as 14-19 percentage points [^][^][^][^]. The primary polling error is attributed to challenges in accurately measuring voters who had cast mail-in ballots, as Stevens performed notably better among early voters compared to Election Day voters, who were the primary focus of the polls [^][^].
One mid-July poll stood out for its relative accuracy. A mid-July poll by the Glengariff Group was the most accurate among them, indicating a 7-point lead for Stevens, though it was largely viewed as an outlier at the time [^]. While polling averages for the race were provided by Decision Desk HQ [^][^], the explicit accuracy of individual final pre-election polls in forecasting this close margin is not specifically documented in the available data [^][^].
8. What impact did Mallory McMorrow's suspended campaign have on the final vote share for Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens?
| McMorrow campaign suspension | July 5, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed winning margin | 1.03 percentage points [^] |
| Mallory McMorrow final vote share | 4.01% [^][^] |
Mallory McMorrow's campaign suspension reshaped the Michigan Democratic Senate primary. She withdrew from the race on July 5, 2026, approximately one month before the August 4, 2026 primary election [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This action consolidated the contest into a two-way competition between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens [^][^][^][^][^][^]. McMorrow's withdrawal was perceived as heightening the focus on the distinct ideological platforms of El-Sayed, a progressive, and Stevens, characterized as a moderate/establishment candidate [^][^][^][^]. Despite suspending her campaign, McMorrow's name still appeared on the ballot.
Abdul El-Sayed narrowly won the primary despite McMorrow remaining on ballot. He secured 48.51% of the vote, defeating Haley Stevens, who received 47.48% [^][^]. El-Sayed's victory margin was 1.03 percentage points [^]. Mallory McMorrow, whose name was still present on the ballot after her suspension, garnered 4.01% of the total vote share [^][^].
9. How did fundraising totals and spending priorities differ between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
| El-Sayed Campaign Funds | $14.5 million [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Stevens Campaign Funds | $11.9 million [^][^][^] |
| Stevens Outside Support | over $50 million [^][^][^] |
El-Sayed outraised Stevens in direct funding, but Stevens gained significant outside support. Abdul El-Sayed secured approximately $14.5 million in campaign funds for the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary, out-raising Haley Stevens, who raised roughly $11.9 million [^][^][^]. However, Stevens benefited considerably more from outside spending, with super PACs spending over $50 million on her behalf, while outside groups supporting El-Sayed spent approximately $5 million [^][^][^]. The total financial investment in the contest, including both campaign and outside expenditures, ultimately exceeded $80 million [^][^][^]. For the final pre-primary reporting period, El-Sayed's campaign officially reported raising $12,222,406.75 and spending $9,492,277.33 [^], while Stevens' campaign raised $11,884,632.43 and spent $9,091,338.23 [^].
Campaigns differed in funding sources and ideological platforms. El-Sayed's campaign was largely financed by a high volume of small-dollar grassroots contributions [^][^][^]. His platform emphasized progressive issues such as Medicare for All and the abolition of ICE, positioning his campaign as a challenge to establishment politics [^]. In contrast, Haley Stevens benefited from institutional backing, including support from national party leaders and traditional establishment donors [^][^][^]. Her campaign focused on expanding the Affordable Care Act and operating within existing political structures [^].
10. What did the geographic distribution of votes across key Michigan counties reveal about the respective support bases for El-Sayed and Stevens?
| El-Sayed's Lead in Kent County | +26.50% (Kent County) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Stevens' Lead in Wayne County | +5.90% (Wayne County) [^][^][^] |
| El-Sayed's Performance in Highly Educated Counties | Won 13 of 15 counties with highest share of college degrees [^][^][^] |
The August 4, 2026, Michigan Democratic Senate primary highlighted a clear geographic split in voter support. Abdul El-Sayed garnered significant backing in college towns, highly educated counties, and liberal strongholds. Conversely, Haley Stevens demonstrated strength in Detroit, the broader metro Detroit area, the Thumb region, and less-educated, working-class counties [^][^][^].
Abdul El-Sayed secured strong support in educated, liberal areas. His strength was particularly evident in counties with high proportions of college degrees, leading in Kent County by 26.50% and Ingham County by 22.80% [^][^][^]. El-Sayed successfully carried 13 of the 15 counties with the highest college degree attainment and won 5 of the 12 most populous counties, primarily those hosting major universities [^][^][^]. His overall victory was propelled by high voter turnout and substantial margins in liberal, educated precincts, alongside strong support from precincts with notable Arab American populations, such as Dearborn [^][^].
Haley Stevens performed strongly in urban and working-class regions. Stevens maintained a lead in Wayne County by 5.90% and secured victories in 7 of the 12 most populous counties, including key areas like Wayne, Saginaw, and Genesee [^][^][^]. Her robust performance in urban and manufacturing-heavy regions reflected her strength among the Democratic establishment base [^][^]. In contrast, El-Sayed was notably unable to win any of the state's 15 least-educated counties [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Abdul El-Sayed defeated Representative Haley Stevens in the Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary on August 4, 2026 [^][^]. El-Sayed secured 48.51% (742,850 votes) to Stevens' 47.48% (727,137 votes), a victory margin of 1.03 percentage points [^]. The victory margin was approximately 1 percentage point (48.5% to 47.5%) [^][^] and was noted as the second narrowest in a U.S. Senate primary in Michigan history with a 0.98-point margin [^].
The competitive primary tested the Democratic party's progressive wing [^] , with El-Sayed characterized as progressive and Stevens as establishment-backed. They vied for the seat vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters [^]. The race was also characterized by significant spending disparities, with approximately $60 million in total outside spending; roughly $54 million favored Stevens, while El-Sayed received $5 million [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: August 04, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Abdul El-Sayed defeated Representative Haley Stevens in the Michigan Democratic U.S.
- Trigger: Senate primary on August 4, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: El-Sayed secured 48.51% (742,850 votes) to Stevens' 47.48% (727,137 votes), a victory margin of 1.03 percentage points [^] .
- Trigger: The victory margin was approximately 1 percentage point (48.5% to 47.5%) [^] [^] and was noted as the second narrowest in a U.S.
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
