United Russia (ER)
Market Model 64.0% 61.5%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
Market Model 4.5% 3.2%
Politics Markets
Active Markets (6)
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 14.0% 8.1%
August 31
Market Model 2.0% 1.2%
Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 4.6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.9% 3.9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 9.0% 4.5%
September 30
Market Model 3.8% 1.9%
Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket
Tarcisio de Freitas
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Ratinho Júnior
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Top outcome: United Russia (ER) | 64.0% | 61.5% | Med | $16,701,673.17 | Refresh |
| Iran leadership change by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 14.0% | 8.1% | High | $22,427,857.81 | Refresh |
| Israel closes its airspace by...? Yes refers to: August 15 | 9.0% | 4.6% | High | $26,468,472.55 | Refresh |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.9% | 3.9% | Med | $39,388,370.81 | Refresh |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 9.0% | 4.5% | High | $29,033,085.4 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election Top outcome: Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | $119,092,023.96 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $14,190,722.88 |
