Yes
Market Model 30.0% 26.8%
Politics Markets
Active Markets (27)
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Ken Paxton (R)
Market Model 52.0% 49.0%
James Talarico (D)
Market Model 50.0% 51.0%
28–29
Market Model 3.0% 2.3%
<22
Market Model 18.0% 24.1%
Quebec General Election Winner Polymarket
PCQ
Market Model 0.1% 0.5%
PVQ
Market Model 0.1% 0.5%
Gavin Newsom
Market Model 11.0% 3.7%
Donald Trump
Market Model 7.3% 2.8%
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket
CDU
Market Model 1.8% 2.1%
SPD
Market Model 0.1% 0.3%
Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket
Sweden Democrats (SD)
Market Model 0.8% 0.8%
Moderate Party (M)
Market Model 0.5% 0.5%
Yes
Market Model 29.0% 21.5%
French election called by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 7.5%
Alaska Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Mary Peltola
Market Model 1.0% 1.2%
Bernadette Wilson
Market Model 26.0% 27.0%
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Troy Jackson (D)
Market Model 69.0% 62.9%
Susan Collins (R)
Market Model 32.0% 37.0%
Republican
Market Model 41.0% 35.7%
Democratic
Market Model 60.0% 64.2%
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
James Fishback
Market Model 1.6% 2.1%
Jay Collins
Market Model 0.3% 0.5%
54
Market Model 4.1% 3.0%
52
Market Model 12.7% 11.7%
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket
United Russia (ER)
Market Model 97.9% 96.7%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
Market Model 0.1% 0.4%
Berlin State Election Winner Polymarket
AfD
Market Model 17.1% 20.0%
SPD
Market Model 4.3% 7.5%
Next Prime Minister of Romania? Polymarket
Sorin Grindeanu
Market Model 23.0% 20.1%
Eugen Tomac
Market Model 1.8% 0.9%
Next Prime Minister of Sweden Polymarket
Jimmie Åkesson
Market Model 1.7% 2.0%
Nooshi Dadgostar
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 46.0% 41.6%
Republican Party
Market Model 55.0% 58.4%
Renan Santos
Market Model 6.0% 6.8%
Fernando Haddad
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket
Democrats Sweep
Market Model 46.0% 38.8%
Republicans Sweep
Market Model 13.0% 9.0%
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 87.0% 88.4%
Republican Party
Market Model 14.0% 11.6%
United Russia (ER)
Market Model 64.0% 61.5%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
Market Model 4.5% 3.2%
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 14.0% 8.1%
August 31
Market Model 2.0% 1.2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.9% 3.9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 9.0% 4.5%
September 30
Market Model 3.8% 1.9%
Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket
Tarcisio de Freitas
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Ratinho Júnior
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 30.0% | 26.8% | Med | $3,617,972.37 | Refresh |
| Texas Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Ken Paxton (R) | 52.0% | 49.0% | High | $667,716.46 | Refresh |
| How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 28–29 | 3.0% | 2.3% | High | $685,946.43 | Refresh |
| Quebec General Election Winner Top outcome: PCQ | 0.1% | 0.5% | High | $736,939.3 | Refresh |
| Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? Top outcome: Gavin Newsom | 11.0% | 3.7% | Med | $1,023,193.88 | Refresh |
| Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner Top outcome: CDU | 1.8% | 2.1% | Med | $872,456.37 | Refresh |
| Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner Top outcome: Sweden Democrats (SD) | 0.8% | 0.8% | High | $1,280,539.09 | Refresh |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Yes refers to: Yes | 29.0% | 21.5% | Med | $1,048,994.18 | Refresh |
| French election called by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 13.0% | 7.5% | High | $1,090,565.88 | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 1.0% | 1.2% | High | $1,103,514.18 | Refresh |
| Maine Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Troy Jackson (D) | 69.0% | 62.9% | High | $1,124,761.75 | Refresh |
| Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? Top outcome: Republican | 41.0% | 35.7% | High | $1,987,446.58 | Refresh |
| Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner Top outcome: James Fishback | 1.6% | 2.1% | High | $2,609,875.83 | Refresh |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 54 | 4.1% | 3.0% | High | $2,789,166.08 | Refresh |
| Russia Parliamentary Election Winner Top outcome: United Russia (ER) | 97.9% | 96.7% | High | $2,912,290.84 | Refresh |
| Berlin State Election Winner Top outcome: AfD | 17.1% | 20.0% | High | $3,166,713.69 | Refresh |
| Next Prime Minister of Romania? Top outcome: Sorin Grindeanu | 23.0% | 20.1% | High | $3,276,891.2 | Refresh |
| Next Prime Minister of Sweden Top outcome: Jimmie Åkesson | 1.7% | 2.0% | High | $3,410,863.95 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 46.0% | 41.6% | High | $3,754,539.68 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Top outcome: Renan Santos | 6.0% | 6.8% | High | $4,427,416.33 | Refresh |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Top outcome: Democrats Sweep | 46.0% | 38.8% | Med | $9,458,396.97 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 87.0% | 88.4% | High | $9,060,714.17 | Refresh |
| Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Top outcome: United Russia (ER) | 64.0% | 61.5% | Med | $16,701,673.17 | Refresh |
| Iran leadership change by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 14.0% | 8.1% | High | $22,427,857.81 | Refresh |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.9% | 3.9% | Med | $39,388,370.81 | Refresh |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 9.0% | 4.5% | High | $29,033,085.4 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election Top outcome: Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | $119,092,023.96 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (6)
Yes
Market Model — —
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Clacton by-election Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $3,666.98 | ||
| — | — | High | $663,378.31 | ||
| — | — | Med | $782,938.3 | ||
| — | — | High | $3,817,175.21 | ||
| — | — | High | $14,190,722.88 | ||
| — | — | High | $26,468,472.55 |
