Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 14.0% 8.1%
August 31
Market Model 2.0% 1.2%
Geopolitics Markets
Active Markets (4)
Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 4.6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.9% 3.9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 9.0% 4.5%
September 30
Market Model 3.8% 1.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 14.0% | 8.1% | High | $22,427,857.81 | Refresh |
| Israel closes its airspace by...? Yes refers to: August 15 | 9.0% | 4.6% | High | $26,468,472.55 | Refresh |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.9% | 3.9% | Med | $39,388,370.81 | Refresh |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 9.0% | 4.5% | High | $29,033,085.4 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $14,190,722.88 |
