Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Geopolitics Markets
Active Markets (22)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
September 30
Market Model 0.8% 0.4%
December 31
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
October 31
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 2.7%
Putin out as President of Russia by...? Polymarket
December 31, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 4.0%
September 30, 2026
Market Model 1.4% 0.8%
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Polymarket
Donald Trump
Market Model 2.1% 13.6%
UNRWA
Market Model 4.3% 11.9%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket
September 30
Market Model 21.0% 14.2%
December 31
Market Model 64.0% 55.0%
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 16.0% 14.2%
December 31
Market Model 14.0% 14.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei
Market Model 82.1% 80.2%
Mohammad Khatami
Market Model 0.2% 0.5%
Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 6.0% 3.5%
Benjamin Netanyahu
Market Model 30.0% 24.2%
Naftali Bennett
Market Model 7.0% 7.7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.8% 3.8%
September 30
Market Model 2.1% 1.2%
December 31
Market Model 8.0% 4.6%
Venezuela leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Richard Grenell
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Frank Donovan
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Netanyahu out by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 48.0% 40.1%
Yes
Market Model 60.0% 56.7%
Ukraine election called by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Ukraine election held by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 1.7%
Trump out as President before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 5.2%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.2% 4.2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 4.0% 4.5%
September 30
Market Model 1.1% 1.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 15.0% | Med | 56 | Refresh |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Top outcome: December 31 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 4.0% | 2.7% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Putin out as President of Russia by...? Top outcome: December 31, 2026 | 6.0% | 4.0% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Top outcome: Donald Trump | 2.1% | 13.6% | High | 58 | Refresh |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Top outcome: September 30 | 21.0% | 14.2% | High | 59 | Refresh |
| Iran leadership change by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 16.0% | 14.2% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | 49 | Refresh |
| Iran leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Mojtaba Khamenei | 82.1% | 80.2% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Israel closes its airspace by...? Yes refers to: September 30 | 6.0% | 3.5% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Top outcome: Benjamin Netanyahu | 30.0% | 24.2% | High | 67 | Refresh |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.8% | 3.8% | Med | 60 | Refresh |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Top outcome: September 30 | 2.1% | 1.2% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Richard Grenell | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | 59 | Refresh |
| Netanyahu out by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 48.0% | 40.1% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes refers to: Yes | 60.0% | 56.7% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| Ukraine election called by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 12.0% | 4.2% | High | 48 | Refresh |
| Ukraine election held by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 5.0% | 1.7% | High | 46 | Refresh |
| Trump out as President before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 5.2% | Med | 33 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 4.2% | 4.2% | Med | 53 | Refresh |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 4.0% | 4.5% | High | 50 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (6)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 23.9%
Yes
Market Model — —
September 30
Market Model 88.0% 99.5%
October 31
Market Model 77.0% 99.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 43.0% | 23.9% | High | 68 | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Top outcome: September 30 | 88.0% | 99.5% | High | — |
