Yes
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
U.S. x Iran Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (4)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 64.0% 55.0%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 4.6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 4.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | 65 | Refresh |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 64.0% | 55.0% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 8.0% | 4.6% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 4.0% | 4.5% | High | 58 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | — |
