SCOTUS & courts Markets

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.

Active Markets (17)

When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 5.1% 2.5%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Market Model 21.0% 20.2%

1.1M contracts Refresh

Will a court order a tariff refund? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts Refresh

Comey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 17.0%

12.1K contracts Refresh

Will US Supreme Court ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 36.0% 43.7%

13.8K contracts Refresh

Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 91.0% 93.8%

38.9K contracts Refresh

Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 91.8% 94.8%

22.1K contracts Refresh

Will Elon win his case against OpenAI? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 21.0% 16.2%

1.2M contracts Refresh

Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 12.1%

37.4K contracts Refresh

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Kalshi

Tim Walz

Market Model 17.0% 8.1%

Ilhan Omar

Market Model 49.0% 36.3%

712.8K contracts Refresh

Will any court rule that the 2024 election was fraudulent? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 5.0% 3.7%

41.8K contracts Refresh

Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 12.0% 9.0%

6.5K contracts Refresh

Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 42.0% 49.9%

14.2K contracts Refresh

Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 17.0%

6.8K contracts Refresh

Who will be arrested before 2027? Kalshi

James Comey

Market Model 75.0% 67.3%

Barack Obama

Market Model 11.0% 4.6%

1.7M contracts Refresh

Will any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 8.4% 4.7%

17.6K contracts Refresh

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? Kalshi

Amul Thapar

Market Model 9.0% 7.8%

Aileen Cannon

Market Model 12.0% 8.9%

306.3K contracts Refresh

Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? Kalshi

Clarence Thomas

Market Model 50.0% 27.0%

Samuel Alito

Market Model 70.0% 49.1%

51.5K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	5.1%	2.5%	High	30	Refresh
Will a court order a tariff refund?	—	—	Low	—	Refresh
Comey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027	17.0%	17.0%	Med	57	Refresh
Will US Supreme Court ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams? Yes refers to: Before 2029	36.0%	43.7%	Med	75	Refresh
Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will? Yes refers to: Yes	91.0%	93.8%	Med	—	Refresh
Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans? Yes refers to: Before 2027	91.8%	94.8%	Med	—	Refresh
Will Elon win his case against OpenAI? Yes refers to: Before 2027	21.0%	16.2%	Med	—	Refresh
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody? Yes refers to: Before 2027	17.0%	12.1%	Med	74	Refresh
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Top outcome: Tim Walz	17.0%	8.1%	Med	60	Refresh
Will any court rule that the 2024 election was fraudulent? Yes refers to: Before 2027	5.0%	3.7%	Med	74	Refresh
Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends? Yes refers to: any 3rd Amendment case	12.0%	9.0%	Med	67	Refresh
Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026? Yes refers to: a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump	42.0%	49.9%	Med	69	Refresh
Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court? Yes refers to: Before 2027	17.0%	17.0%	Med	59	Refresh
Who will be arrested before 2027? Top outcome: James Comey	75.0%	67.3%	Med	69	Refresh
Will any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? Yes refers to: Before 2027	8.4%	4.7%	Med	78	Refresh
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? Top outcome: Amul Thapar	9.0%	7.8%	High	68	Refresh
Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? Top outcome: Clarence Thomas	50.0%	27.0%	Med	39	Refresh

Expired Markets (7)

Will the Supreme Court shield Monsanto from Roundup failure-to-warn lawsuits? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

7.7K contracts

Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots after Election Day? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

58.9K contracts

Will SCOTUS uphold the federal gun ban for marijuana users? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

62.6K contracts

How many justices will vote for Trump in the FTC removal case? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

51.5K contracts

When will the Supreme Court issue an opinion on the Voting Rights Act? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

72.3K contracts

How many justices will vote for reversal in Louisiana v. Callais? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

45.1K contracts

Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

499.1K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Will the Supreme Court shield Monsanto from Roundup failure-to-warn lawsuits?	—	—	Med	—
Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots after Election Day?	—	—	Med	—
Will SCOTUS uphold the federal gun ban for marijuana users?	—	—	Med	—
How many justices will vote for Trump in the FTC removal case?	—	—	High	—
When will the Supreme Court issue an opinion on the Voting Rights Act?	—	—	High	—
How many justices will vote for reversal in Louisiana v. Callais?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?	—	—	Med	—

SCOTUS & courts Markets

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