Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 5.1% 2.5%
Before Jul 1, 2027
Market Model 21.0% 20.2%
SCOTUS & courts Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (13)
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
Yes
Market Model 36.0% 43.7%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 12.1%
Tim Walz
Market Model 17.0% 8.1%
Ilhan Omar
Market Model 49.0% 36.3%
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 3.7%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 9.0%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 49.9%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
James Comey
Market Model 75.0% 67.3%
Barack Obama
Market Model 11.0% 4.6%
Yes
Market Model 8.4% 4.7%
Amul Thapar
Market Model 9.0% 7.8%
Aileen Cannon
Market Model 12.0% 8.9%
Clarence Thomas
Market Model 50.0% 27.0%
Samuel Alito
Market Model 70.0% 49.1%
Expired Markets (11)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 91.0% 93.8%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 91.8% 94.8%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 16.2%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Low | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will? Yes refers to: Yes | 91.0% | 93.8% | Med | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 91.8% | 94.8% | Med | — | |
| Will Elon win his case against OpenAI? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 21.0% | 16.2% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — |
