Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
World Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (8)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 2.7%
Putin out as President of Russia by...? Polymarket
December 31, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 4.0%
June 30, 2027
Market Model 16.0% 10.7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei
Market Model 82.1% 80.2%
Mohammad Khatami
Market Model 0.2% 0.5%
Benjamin Netanyahu
Market Model 30.0% 24.2%
Naftali Bennett
Market Model 7.0% 7.7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.8% 3.8%
Netanyahu out by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 48.0% 40.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 15.0% | Med | 55 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 4.0% | 2.7% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Putin out as President of Russia by...? Top outcome: December 31, 2026 | 6.0% | 4.0% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | 45 | Refresh |
| Iran leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Mojtaba Khamenei | 82.1% | 80.2% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Top outcome: Benjamin Netanyahu | 30.0% | 24.2% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.8% | 3.8% | Med | 57 | Refresh |
| Netanyahu out by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 48.0% | 40.1% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (6)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Polymarket
Donald Trump
Market Model 0.0% 13.6%
UNRWA
Market Model 0.0% 11.9%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 23.9%
Ukraine election called by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Ukraine election held by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 1.7%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Top outcome: Donald Trump | 0.0% | 13.6% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 43.0% | 23.9% | High | 63 | |
| Ukraine election called by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 12.0% | 4.2% | High | 52 | |
| Ukraine election held by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 5.0% | 1.7% | High | 46 |
