Short Answer

The U.S. is not expected to invade Venezuela by December 31; no immediate drivers for such an action are currently identified, and the market prices this outcome at 4.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price movement is not tied to any reported news or fundamental driver, including the US capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. The market has recorded zero trading volume throughout its history. Price fluctuations between 3.5% and 3.9% are therefore not indicative of any shift in trader sentiment or conviction.
The absence of any traded contracts means the market's price discovery mechanism is inactive. The minor price changes likely reflect automated adjustments by a market maker or shifts in untraded limit orders rather than a response to geopolitical events.
  • Since last update (~28d): The model-market edge compressed by +1.3pp, led by a -1.0pp decline in market probability.
  • Our overall confidence score for this prediction declined by -3.0pp.
  • The headline model probability for December 31 increased slightly by +0.3pp.
  • Several prior outcomes, including January 31 and March 31, have now resolved to "no".
  • The market implies low probability for a U.S. invasion by December 31. A U.S. military operation captured President Maduro on January 3, 2026.

Current Context

U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela in January 2026. On January 3, 2026, the United States conducted 'Operation Absolute Resolve' in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture and arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores [1][2][3][4]. They were subsequently transferred to New York to face criminal charges [2][3][4]. Following Maduro's capture, President Trump stated that the United States would administer Venezuela until a transition and established an energy deal involving control of Venezuelan oil assets and sales [2][5][6]. Throughout January 2026, legislative resolutions were introduced in Congress challenging the legality of these military actions under the War Powers Resolution; none were approved [7][4]. Administration officials maintained that no U.S. troops were present in Venezuela as of late January 2026 [7][4].
An extensive oil deal now supplants a full U.S. invasion. As of September 1, 2026, no U.S. invasion of Venezuela has occurred; instead, the Trump administration secured an extensive oil deal with the acting Venezuelan government of Delcy Rodríguez [8][9][1][10]. The U.S. oil agreement, announced in August 2026, involves a private joint venture, North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), in which the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital holds a 35% stake [9][10][11]. This grants the U.S. rights to develop 17 oil fields and purchase a portion of their output [9][10][11]. While U.S. military assets were deployed in early 2026 for Maduro's extraction, analysts and officials consistently characterized a large-scale ground invasion or full-scale occupation of Venezuela as unlikely due to logistical challenges, potential instability, and lack of political support [1][12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Making sense of the US military operation in Venezuelabrookings.edu
  2. 2U.S. Capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro: Considerations for Congresscongress.gov
  3. 3Venezuela: Overview of U.S. Sanctions Policycongress.gov
  4. 4U.S. Capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro: Considerations for Congresscongress.gov
  5. 5Venezuela: Overview of U.S. Sanctions Policycongress.gov
  6. 6If10715.htmlcongress.gov
  7. 7Crec 2026 01 22 pt1 pgh1317.htmcongress.gov
  8. 8U.S. company to take over some Venezuela oilfields previously run by Chinese, Russian firms, officials say - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  9. 9What we know about Trump’s deal giving the US access to Venezuela’s oil | Euronewseuronews.com
  10. 10White House unveils more details of Trump’s Venezuela oil deal | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
  11. 11White House provides details on Venezuela oil deal Trump announcednbcnews.com
  12. 12US faces challenges if it wants ‘boots on the ground’ in Venezuela | Stars and Stripesstripes.com
  13. 13Opening ‘Pandora’s box’: What happens if the US attacks Venezuela? | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeera1-e8259.azureedge.net

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Sovereign territory is defined by land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible sources.

Market Discussion

The market largely anticipates a "No" resolution, with trader odds indicating only a 4% chance of a US invasion by late 2026. This consensus stems from the interpretation that US actions, such as targeted strikes and a leadership transition in early 2026, do not meet the market's specific definition of an "invasion" requiring intent for sustained territorial control, and that the US favors economic and diplomatic approaches. While some participants hint at "semantic games" influencing the resolution and encourage "Yes" holders to gather evidence, the prevailing sentiment aligns with the "No" outcome.

4. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Sep 1, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality27
Poor
Liquidity
27

1 contract

December 3127
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

December 31—
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

1 contract

December 31100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 1, 2026

5. What specific geopolitical or economic catalysts could realistically trigger a U.S. invasion of Venezuela before the end of 2025?

Geopolitical & Economic Catalysts for Escalation by 2025Narco-terrorism narrative, 2024 election fraud allegations, desire for oil resources [1][2][3]
U.S. Military Buildup Near VenezuelaLate 2025 [4]
Date of Major Military InterventionJanuary 2, 2026 [5]
Potential catalysts for a U.S. invasion of Venezuela before the end of 2025 were identifiable. These included the Trump administration's framing of a 'narco-terrorism' narrative, allegations of electoral fraud following the 2024 Venezuelan elections, and a strategic interest in securing access to Venezuelan oil resources [1][2][3]. These factors contributed to a significant U.S. military buildup near Venezuela in late 2025. This buildup involved the deployment of warships and thousands of troops, which was officially presented as an effort to counter drug trafficking and address the Tren de Aragua gang [4].
The actual major military intervention, however, occurred in early 2026. This operation, often termed an 'invasion' or the 'capture' of President Nicolás Maduro, took place on January 2, 2026 [5]. This date fell outside the 2025 calendar window that was specified in certain market contracts [6][7][8][9]. Consequently, prediction markets that had anticipated a U.S. invasion by the end of 2025 resolved in controversy or negatively [6][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1What Trump's Attack on Venezuela Meansglobalaffairs.org
  2. 2Venezuela and Trumprealinstitutoelcano.org
  3. 3US Action in Venezuela Challenges International Legal Normsappliedgeopolitics.com
  4. 4Here are the facts on the U.S. military operation against Venezuela | CBC Newscbc.ca
  5. 5Making sense of the US military operation in Venezuelabrookings.edu
  6. 6Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?polymarket.com
  7. 7Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? — Final Result | GEOPOLITICS | Polymirapolymira.org
  8. 8Polymarket Won't Pay Users Who Bet on a U.S. Invasion...nytimes.com
  9. 9Polymarket refuses to pay bets that US would 'invade'...ft.com

6. What is the official 2025 military and diplomatic posture of the Pentagon and State Department regarding intervention in Venezuela?

Date of US Military OperationJanuary 3, 2026 [1][2][3]
Individuals CapturedVenezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores [1][2][3]
Interim Venezuelan PresidentDelcy Rodríguez [2][3]
Official 2025 U.S. posture on Venezuela intervention is not detailed. However, a U.S. military operation conducted on January 3, 2026, led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores [1][2][3]. They were subsequently transported to New York to face criminal charges, including narco-terrorism [1][2][3].
Following the capture, the Trump Administration outlined its strategy for Venezuela. The administration expressed an intent to temporarily "run" Venezuela to stabilize its oil infrastructure and manage counternarcotics efforts [1][4][3]. Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that the U.S. would not take a direct governing role, but instead planned to utilize a blockade and maintain military pressure in the region [1][4][3]. Delcy Rodríguez, formerly Maduro's vice president and oil minister, assumed power as acting president of Venezuela, with the Trump Administration opting to work with her government rather than opposition leaders [2][3].
Prediction markets generally distinguished the operation from a full-scale invasion. Markets asking whether the U.S. would "invade" Venezuela largely resolved or remained at very low probabilities, as market participants typically differentiated the January 2026 targeted military operation from a full-scale land invasion [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Making sense of the US military operation in Venezuelabrookings.edu
  2. 2Venezuela's Post-Maduro Political Transition and U.S. Policyeverycrsreport.com
  3. 3Instability in Venezuela | Global Conflict Trackercfr.org
  4. 4U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Madurocongress.gov
  5. 5https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-by-december-31-2026polymarket.com
  6. 6Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com

7. How does the Trump administration's approach to Venezuela compare with the historical precedents of U.S. interventions in Panama (1989) and Grenada (1983)?

Maduro's StatusCaptured and detained in the U.S. as of September 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Key Difference from PanamaVenezuela is substantially larger in population and land area [5][6][7]
Venezuela Oil ReservesMore than 65 million barrels [8]
The Trump administration's approach to Venezuela drew comparisons to the 1989 Panama intervention. The January 2026 U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro mirrored the 1989 U.S. invasion of Panama in its aim to remove a leader accused of drug trafficking [5][6][9]. However, the U.S. intervention in Venezuela employed a more targeted strategy, focusing on economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and selective use of force, which differed from the large ground force occupation utilized in the 1989 Panama invasion [5][7][10]. Experts highlighted key distinctions, noting that Venezuela significantly surpasses Panama in population and land area, lacked an existing U.S. military footprint, and possessed a government more structurally integrated and resilient to sudden collapse [5][6][7].
The Venezuela operation resulted in Maduro's capture but faced domestic challenges. As of September 2026, the U.S. operation led to Maduro's capture and detention in the U.S. [1][2][3][4]. Domestically, the Trump administration encountered challenges, including congressional attempts to limit further military action via the War Powers Resolution and ongoing discussions regarding the legality and long-term goals of the U.S. involvement in Venezuela [1][2][3][4]. President Trump stated that crude from Venezuela's more than 65 million barrels of oil reserves would be used to replenish America's depleted emergency reserve [8].
Sources (10)
  1. 1U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Madurocongress.gov
  2. 2Unilateral U.S. military intervention to remove authoritarian...wola.org
  3. 3US Senate votes to curb military action in Venezuela...reuters.com
  4. 4Does the War Powers Resolution apply to military actions...constitutioncenter.org
  5. 5A tale of 2 U.S. interventions and why Venezuela is not...npr.org
  6. 6The Model for a U.S. Military Intervention in Venezuelatime.com
  7. 7Invading Panama and deposing Noriega in 1989 was easy...responsiblestatecraft.org
  8. 8US-Iran Exchange Strikes; Nepal Races to Find Missing | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  9. 9How US intervention in Venezuela mirrors its actions in...theconversation.com
  10. 10Making sense of the US military operation in Venezuelabrookings.edu

8. How do the military capabilities of the U.S. Southern Command compare to those of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces?

Operation NameOperation Absolute Resolve [1]
Operation DateJanuary 3, 2026 [1]
US Official Classification of OperationLaw enforcement operation [1]
A U.S. military operation in 2026 captured Venezuela's President. On January 3, 2026, the United States executed a military operation named Absolute Resolve, during which U.S. special operations forces successfully captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in Caracas [1]. Following this capture, the U.S. government shifted its strategy toward stabilizing Venezuela and re-establishing diplomatic ties. This strategic adjustment resulted in the U.S. Southern Command's regional presence being reconfigured into the Joint Task Force–Western Hemisphere (JTF-WHEM) [1].
Operation classification impacted invasion prediction markets significantly. Despite international legal experts and some organizations categorizing the January 2026 operation as an armed conflict, the Trump administration officially classified it as a law enforcement operation rather than a full-scale land invasion [1]. This classification has notably affected prediction markets concerning a U.S. "invasion" of Venezuela. As of September 1, 2026, prediction markets for a U.S. "invasion" by the end of 2026 show very low probabilities. This outcome is primarily due to market results being heavily dependent on strict definitions distinguishing an invasion from the specialized military operation already conducted earlier in the year [2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Instability in Venezuela | Global Conflict Trackercfr.org
  2. 2https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-by-december-31-2026polymarket.com
  3. 3Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?polymarket.com
  4. 4Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com

9. How might the strategic importance of Venezuela's oil reserves under the Trump administration influence a decision to intervene before 2026?

Energy Agreement AnnouncedAugust 2026 (Trump administration) [1][2][3][4]
Military Operation DateJanuary 3, 2026 (Caracas) [3][5][4][6]
Oil Reserves Targeted65 billion barrels [1][2][3][4]
A 2026 energy deal secured Venezuelan oil for the U.S. The Trump administration announced an energy agreement in August 2026 with the post-Maduro Venezuelan government to develop 65 billion barrels of oil reserves, with the explicit goal of enhancing U.S. energy security [1][2][3][4]. Experts noted that due to existing infrastructure limitations, these reserves were anticipated to be a long-term supply solution rather than an immediate fix for U.S. gasoline prices or Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels [1][2][3][4].
U.S. forces conducted a tactical operation to remove Maduro. This energy agreement followed a specialized U.S. military operation in Caracas on January 3, 2026, which resulted in the capture and removal of President Nicolás Maduro [3][5][4][6]. Analysts largely characterized this January 2026 operation as a tactical strike, not a full-scale land invasion, a perspective supported by prediction markets that mostly resolved to 'No' regarding whether the U.S. had 'invaded' Venezuela by late 2026 [3][5][4][6][7][8][9].
The influence of oil on intervention prior to 2026 is unclear. While the August 2026 energy agreement highlighted increasing U.S. energy security through Venezuelan oil reserves, the provided information does not detail how the strategic importance of these reserves specifically influenced any decision to intervene prior to 2026 [1][2][3][4]. It is noted that President Trump approaches global political, business, and diplomatic matters from a unique personal perspective [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Trump says U.S. has entered deal with Venezuela to take...npr.org
  2. 2Fact Check Team: Could the US-Venezuela oil deal help...abc45.com
  3. 3U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Madurocongress.gov
  4. 4Who is running Venezuela after US forces seized Maduro?bbc.com
  5. 5Making sense of the US military operation in Venezuelabrookings.edu
  6. 62026 United States intervention in Venezuelaen.wikipedia.org
  7. 7https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-by-december-31-2026polymarket.com
  8. 8Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?polymarket.com
  9. 9Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com
  10. 10Trump Says Talks Are Iran’s ‘Last Chance’ After Threats | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

On January 3, 2026, the U.S. military executed strikes across Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in Caracas [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. They were subsequently transferred to New York to face criminal charges [5][6][7]. Following this operation, the Trump administration established direct political and economic oversight over Venezuela, with President Trump stating the U.S. would 'run' the country for the foreseeable future [1][8][9]. The administration initiated efforts to control Venezuelan oil exports and modernize the country's energy sector [5][10][7].
On August 29, 2026, the Trump administration announced a major oil agreement with the interim Venezuelan government [8][11][12]. This deal granted North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), a U.S.-linked entity, rights to 17 oil fields containing approximately 65 billion barrels of reserves [8][11][12]. The Pentagon holds a 35% stake in this joint venture [8][11][12]. By April 2026, the Trump Administration had lifted sanctions on Delcy Rodríguez, who assumed the role of acting president following Maduro's removal [13]. The U.S. intervention remains a subject of domestic political debate, with ongoing congressional inquiries regarding the authorization of force and the legality of the administration's oil deals [14]. Congressional reaction to the military actions was divided, and efforts such as H.Con.Res. 68 to direct the removal of U.S. forces failed to pass the House [15][16].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: March 31, 2026
Sources (16)
  1. 1Making sense of the US military operation in Venezuelabrookings.edu
  2. 2Trump’s Venezuela Invasion Is the Key to Understanding His Second Term | The New Republicnewrepublic.com
  3. 3Trump’s quest to kick America's ‘Iraq War syndrome’ | Responsible Statecraftresponsiblestatecraft.org
  4. 4Analysts Warn Venezuela Invasion Could Empower Trump to Take Actions Elsewhere | Truthouttruthout.org
  5. 5U.S. Capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro: Considerations for Congresscongress.gov
  6. 6U.S. Capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro: Considerations for Congresscongress.gov
  7. 7Venezuela: Overview of U.S. Sanctions Policycongress.gov
  8. 8White House unveils more details of Trump’s Venezuela oil deal | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
  9. 9Trump Says U.S. Oversight of Venezuela Could Last for...nytimes.com
  10. 10Venezuela Oil Sector: Context for Recent Developmentscongress.gov
  11. 11White House provides details on Venezuela oil deal Trump announcednbcnews.com
  12. 12The US has struck a deal to control Venezuela’s oil reserves. It probably won’t help bring down fuel pricestheconversation.com
  13. 13Venezuela's Post-Maduro Political Transition and U.S. Policycongress.gov
  14. 14Venezuela's Post-Maduro Political Transition and U.S. Policycongress.gov
  15. 15H.Con.Res.68 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): To direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from Venezuela that have not been authorized by Congress. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  16. 16Crec 2026 01 22 pt1 pgh1317.htmcongress.gov