Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Short Answer
The market consensus indicates Yulia Navalnaya does not win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, with her probability priced at 9.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market is untraded. Probabilities have drifted inside a narrow 40-basis-point range, from a high of 2.5% to the current 2.1%, on zero total volume. The minor price fluctuations are not driven by market activity or new information. Instead, they reflect nominal adjustments in an inactive contract.
The primary event for this market is the announcement of the 2026 laureate by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, scheduled for October 9, 2026. The absence of any trading indicates participants have not yet taken positions on the outcome.
- Since last update (~28d): António Guterres's model probability dropped -5.9pp, compressing his edge, driven by model conviction.
- UNRWA's model probability surged +4.7pp, widening its edge, driven by model conviction.
- Donald Trump's model probability rose +4.0pp, widening its edge significantly, driven by model conviction.
- Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani's model probability increased +4.2pp, widening its edge, driven by model conviction.
- Yulia Navalnaya leads, aligned with the Committee's anti-authoritarian preference.
- Donald Trump received nominations, but the Committee may show political aversion.
- UNRWA's staff controversy and Zelenskyy's wartime role present hurdles.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 2.1% | 13.6% | He has received nominations for diplomatic interventions, but the Committee may be averse to his public lobbying and rhetoric. |
| UNRWA | 4.3% | 11.9% | Its plausible candidacy as a humanitarian organization is hindered by existing controversy regarding its staff. |
| Greta Thunberg | 1.2% | 4.3% | Her prominent activism links climate action to peace, a theme the Committee has previously considered. |
| Xi Jinping | 0.5% | 1.9% | His authoritarian rule conflicts with the Committee's historical preference for anti-authoritarian advocates. |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 1.1% | 4.0% | His public profile as a militant leader is fundamentally incompatible with Nobel Peace Prize criteria. |
Current Context
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize remains unannounced as of September 1, 2026. The Norwegian Nobel Committee will name the laureate on Friday, October 9, 2026, at 11:00 CEST [^][^][^][^]. This aligns with the historical pattern of Nobel laureates being chosen and announced in early October [^][^][^]. Prediction markets, as of September 1, 2026, indicate no clear favorite, with a highly uncertain and fragmented field [^][^]. Various contenders, including Yulia Navalnaya, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, and humanitarian groups such as Doctors Without Borders, show low implied probabilities in top rankings [^][^]. For context, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to María Corina Machado on October 10, 2025 [^][^].
Specific recommendations for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize have emerged. A U.S. Senate resolution (S.Res.460), introduced on October 21, 2025, recommended President Donald J. Trump be awarded the prize in 2026 [^]. In broader international recognition, other peace-related awards for 2026 have been announced. Francis Gavin received the Lionel Gelber Prize [^][^], NATO was awarded the Westphalian Peace Prize [^], and Tommy Koh won the Ramon Magsaysay Award [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Here's a summary of the contract rules:
1. YES resolution: A YES resolution for a specific listed nominee occurs if they are officially announced as the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. In the event of joint winners, special precedence rules apply, prioritizing Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk in that specific order, followed by an individual over an organization, and then alphabetical order for similar types. 2. NO resolution: A NO resolution for a specific listed nominee occurs if they are not officially announced as the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner, or if another listed nominee is determined as the single winner under the joint resolution rules, or if the market ultimately resolves to "Other." 3. Key dates/deadlines: The market's resolution is contingent on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize announcement. If no official announcement is made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." 4. Special settlement conditions: If the prize is awarded jointly, a single winner is determined by a specific order of precedence (Trump > Zelenskyy > Netanyahu > Putin > Musk). If none of these five are recipients, an individual winner takes precedence over an organization. If all joint recipients are of the same type, the listed name that comes first alphabetically will resolve to YES. The sole resolution source is the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yulia Navalnaya | $0.09 | $0.93 | 9% |
| UNRWA | $0.04 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | $0.04 | $0.96 | 4% |
| International Court of Justice | $0.03 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Pope Leo XIV | $0.03 | $0.97 | 2% |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | $0.02 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Donald Trump | $0.02 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Greta Thunberg | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Narendra Modi | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Julian Assange | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| António Guterres | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Xi Jinping | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Khaled Mashal | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Charlie Kirk | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Elon Musk | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Mohammed bin Salman | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Vladimir Putin | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Other | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person A | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AA | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AB | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AC | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AD | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AE | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AF | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AG | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AH | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AI | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AJ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AK | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AL | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AM | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AN | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AO | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AP | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AQ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AR | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AS | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AT | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AU | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AV | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AW | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AX | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person B | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person C | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person D | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person E | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person F | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person G | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person H | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person I | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person J | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person K | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person L | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person M | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person N | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person O | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person P | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person Q | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person R | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person S | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person T | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person U | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person V | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person W | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person X | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person Y | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person Z | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The market indicates a highly fragmented field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Yulia Navalnaya currently holding the highest implied probability at 8%. Other leading contenders, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy, UNRWA, and the International Court of Justice, are closely bunched with probabilities between 3.2% and 4.3%. There are no explicit arguments for or against candidates provided, but the low probabilities across the board suggest a lack of strong consensus or a clear frontrunner, indicating that traders do not anticipate a decisive breakthrough or major milestone that would significantly favor any single candidate at this time.
4. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Donald TrumpTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0.03
Pope Leo XIVTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Yulia NavalnayaTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (3d)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Julian AssangeTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (3d)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- -0.09
Greta ThunbergTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (3d)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0.07
Elon MuskTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
UNRWATrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0.04
International Court of JusticeTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0.12
António GuterresTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (3d)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Volodymyr ZelenskyyTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Tamim bin Hamad Al ThaniTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Vladimir PutinTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Khaled MashalTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (3d)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Benjamin NetanyahuTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Recep Tayyip ErdoğanTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (3d)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Xi JinpingTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Ahmed al-SharaaTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0.16
Charlie KirkTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Mohammed bin SalmanTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (3d)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Narendra ModiTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (3d)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0.04
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 6, 2026
5. What geopolitical catalysts between late 2025 and the February 2026 nomination deadline could elevate an organization like the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or UNRWA to frontrunner status?
| ICJ and UNRWA Candidacy | Recognized institutional candidates for Nobel Peace Prize, generally lower implied probabilities than individual favorites [^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Nomination Deadline | January 31, 2026 [^][^][^] |
| Geopolitical Event Specification | Research does not specify events between late 2025 and the 2026 deadline that would elevate them to frontrunner status [^][^][^] |
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) and UNRWA are considered Nobel Peace Prize contenders. Both organizations appear in prediction markets as institutional candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize, though their implied probabilities are generally lower compared to individual favorites such as Yulia Navalnaya [^][^]. For the ICJ, potential catalysts for frontrunner status include a significant ruling demonstrating diplomatic influence or widespread compliance. UNRWA's candidacy could be bolstered by achieving a major humanitarian milestone or securing a clear, renewed international mandate that effectively transcends existing controversies surrounding its staff [^][^][^].
Specific geopolitical events for elevation by the deadline are not detailed. While the types of catalysts for elevating these organizations are identified, the available information does not specify particular geopolitical events or rulings that would occur between late 2025 and the January 31, 2026 nomination deadline to elevate them to frontrunner status [^][^][^]. The formal nomination window for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize officially closed on January 31, 2026. However, members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee are permitted to submit additional nominations during their first meeting held after this deadline [^][^][^].
6. How does the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize award to María Corina Machado signal the Committee's potential focus for 2026, particularly regarding democratic activists versus state actors?
| 2025 Nobel Peace Prize Winner | María Corina Machado [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Yulia Navalnaya 2026 Prize Probability | 9–15% [^][^] |
| 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Outlook | Unpredictable, high probability for 'Other' candidates [^] |
María Corina Machado's 2025 Nobel highlights focus on individual democratic activism. She was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her work promoting democratic rights in Venezuela and her struggle for a peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy [^][^][^][^]. This award underscores the Nobel Committee's recognition of individual efforts in advocating for democracy, signaling a potential continued focus on individual democratic activists [^].
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize remains highly unpredictable. For 2026, prediction markets indicate no clear frontrunner, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of the award, with a significant probability assigned to 'Other' candidates [^][^]. While Yulia Navalnaya has emerged as a leading individual contender, recognized for symbolizing resistance against Russian authoritarianism, her probability currently stands in the single digits, approximately 9–15% [^][^]. This suggests the committee might favor either another high-profile individual democracy advocate or, alternatively, an institutional actor, depending on evolving geopolitical events [^].
7. How do the diplomatic achievements attributed to Donald Trump, such as the Abraham Accords, compare with the human rights advocacy of Yulia Navalnaya as justification for the 2026 award?
| Yulia Navalnaya Nobel Peace Prize odds | 8% to 13.5% (as of September 1, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump Nobel Peace Prize odds | Low single digits (compared to Navalnaya) [^][^][^][^] |
| Competition for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize | Fragmented field including UNRWA, International Court of Justice, and Médecins Sans Frontières [^] |
Navalnaya shows stronger Nobel Peace Prize odds than Trump. Yulia Navalnaya is consistently ranked among the favorites for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with implied probabilities ranging between 8% and 13.5% as of September 1, 2026 [^][^][^]. Donald Trump has also received multiple nominations for the 2026 award, primarily citing the Abraham Accords and various second-term diplomatic interventions [^][^][^]. However, prediction markets currently assign Trump significantly lower odds, often in the low single digits, when compared to Navalnaya [^][^][^][^].
The Committee's historical preferences influence Nobel Peace Prize predictions. Experts suggest that the disparity in market sentiment is driven by the Nobel Committee's past inclination towards anti-authoritarian advocates, a category that aligns with Navalnaya's profile [^][^]. This is further compounded by the Committee's likely aversion to the political pressure associated with Trump's public lobbying and rhetoric [^][^]. Both Navalnaya and Trump face strong competition from a fragmented field of nominees, including institutions such as UNRWA, the International Court of Justice, and Médecins Sans Frontières, preventing any single favorite from emerging with a majority probability [^].
8. What are the key milestones in the Nobel Peace Prize selection timeline for 2026, from the nomination cutoff to the October announcement?
| Nomination Deadline | January 31, 2026 (287 nominations) [^] |
|---|---|
| First Committee Meeting | February 26, 2026 [^] |
| Laureate Announcement | October 9, 2026 (11:00 CEST) [^][^] |
The selection process for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize began with nominations and an initial committee review. The nomination cutoff for 2026 occurred on January 31, 2026, gathering 287 valid nominations [^]. While the annual nomination window typically closes on February 1st, after which the Norwegian Nobel Committee commences its review [^], the committee convened its first meeting on February 26, 2026, following the January deadline. This initial meeting was to assess candidates and begin creating a shortlist, with expert reviews of this list usually concluding by the end of April [^].
The Committee refines candidates before final selection in September. Between May and September, the Norwegian Nobel Committee dedicates its efforts to refining the pool of candidates. This comprehensive process culminates in a final selection, which is determined by a simple majority vote among the Committee members during September [^].
The laureate announcement occurs in October, upholding tradition. The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate is scheduled to be announced on October 9, 2026, at 11:00 CEST in Oslo [^][^]. This timing aligns with the established tradition of Nobel Peace Prize announcements, which are consistently made in October as part of the broader series of Nobel Prize revelations that month [^].
9. What is the historical precedent for the Nobel Committee awarding the prize to controversial free-speech or transparency advocates like Julian Assange or Elon Musk?
| Liu Xiaobo Peace Prize | Awarded 2010 for freedom of expression [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Maria Ressa Peace Prize | Awarded 2021 for freedom of expression [^][^][^] |
| Assange/Musk 2026 Prediction Market Status | Not listed as front-runners as of September 1, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
The Nobel Committee has consistently honored free speech and transparency advocates. Historically, the committee has recognized individuals who champion freedom of expression and transparency, particularly those who challenge authoritarian regimes. This precedent is evident in awards given to figures such as Liu Xiaobo in 2010 and Maria Ressa in 2021, whose work directly aligned with these principles [^][^][^].
Julian Assange and Elon Musk have not received the Nobel Peace Prize. Despite receiving nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize, neither Julian Assange nor Elon Musk has been awarded it. The nomination process for the prize is confidential, with nominee lists remaining undisclosed for 50 years [^][^][^][^]. The prize itself has also often sparked controversy, with past recipients including Henry Kissinger, Yasser Arafat, and Barack Obama [^].
Prediction markets do not favor Assange or Musk for the 2026 prize. As of September 1, 2026, current prediction markets for the Nobel Peace Prize do not list Julian Assange or Elon Musk as leading candidates. Instead, prominent figures like Yulia Navalnaya and organizations such as Doctors Without Borders are considered favorites for the 2026 award [^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate will be announced on October 9, 2026, by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo [^] [^] [^] [^] . | Reuters" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. Prediction markets currently track Yulia Navalnaya as a leading contender at approximately 8% implied probability; other notable candidates include UNRWA, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the International Court of Justice [^][^][^][^]. Nominations for the 2026 prize closed on January 31, 2026, with the committee maintaining secrecy regarding the list of 287 candidates for 50 years [^][^][^][^].
Bullish catalysts for specific candidates include high-profile humanitarian or peace-brokerage achievements, sustained advocacy against authoritarianism, or official international recognition [^] [^] [^] [^] . Conversely, bearish factors encompass a lack of formal institutional backing or the high volume of anonymous, non-publicized candidates [^][^][^][^]. Nobel Peace Prize prediction markets track betting odds, expert predictions, and political momentum, with market prices fluctuating based on news and external events [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: October 10, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate will be announced on October 9, 2026, by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets currently track Yulia Navalnaya as a leading contender at approximately 8% implied probability; other notable candidates include UNRWA, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the International Court of Justice [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Nominations for the 2026 prize closed on January 31, 2026, with the committee maintaining secrecy regarding the list of 287 candidates for 50 years [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts for specific candidates include high-profile humanitarian or peace-brokerage achievements, sustained advocacy against authoritarianism, or official international recognition [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
