Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the Venezuelan presidential election to be scheduled by December 31. However, a new National Electoral Council, responsible for scheduling elections, is only expected to be appointed by the end of 2026, making an earlier schedule highly improbable.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price has shown a consistent downward trend since its inception. Opening at a 23.0% probability on August 4, the contract price has declined to a current level of 16.0%. The most notable move was a drop from 21.0% to 16.0% between August 11 and August 18. This decline in perceived probability corresponds with reports from mid-August confirming that, despite ongoing negotiations between the government and opposition, no presidential election date has been scheduled. The contract is pricing in the continued absence of a firm election timeline.
The technical picture is defined by its complete lack of volume. With zero contracts traded, the price movements reflect adjustments in open offers rather than executed trades between participants. This indicates an illiquid market with very low conviction from traders. In this zero-volume environment, traditional support and resistance levels are not established by trading activity. However, the offer range has been bounded between a low of 15.5% and a high of 24.5%.
The chart suggests a market sentiment that is consistently pessimistic and deteriorating. The steady price decay from 23.0% to 16.0% implies that participants with open orders see a diminishing chance of an election being scheduled by the January 31, 2026 resolution date. The lack of trading volume means these price levels are soft and represent weak sentiment rather than a consensus forged through active trading.
  • Scheduling an election by December 31 appears highly improbable.
  • New electoral council is only expected appointed by the end of 2026.

Current Context

Venezuela lacks a scheduled presidential election date amid a transitional period. As of August 18, 2026, no new presidential election date has been set for Venezuela [1][2][3][4]. The country is in a transitional phase following the removal of former President Nicolás Maduro from power earlier in 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Current US-backed negotiations involve the Venezuelan interim government and opposition factions, focusing on institutional reforms, including an overhaul of the judicial system and the appointment of a new National Electoral Council [1][5][6]. These reforms are considered prerequisites for establishing a timeline for future elections [1][5][6].
US policy aims for democratic transition, expecting elections in months. The United States actively facilitates this transition through a three-phase plan: stabilization, economic recovery/political reconciliation, and democratic transition [2][4]. US officials indicate that the path to elections will necessitate months of preparation, rather than years [2][4]. Venezuela's National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral) is the body constitutionally responsible for organizing and scheduling presidential elections [7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Venezuela’s future is being decided in a new negotiation under Washington’s watch | International | EL PAÍS Englishenglish.elpais.com
  2. 2Venezuela's Post-Maduro Political Transition and U.S. Policyeverycrsreport.com
  3. 3Talks between government and opposition mark a new chapter for Venezuela | Government News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
  4. 4US-backed democracy talks start in Venezuela without Nobel laureate María Corina Machado | CNNcnn.com
  5. 5Venezuela: Gov’t and Opposition Open US-Backed Talks to Overhaul Electoral, Judicial Authorities - Venezuelanalysisvenezuelanalysis.com
  6. 6Venezuela talks end with agreement on judicial reform and frozen funds - France 24france24.com
  7. 7Dispute over Venezuelan election fuels protests, the... - Newsroomnewsroom.ap.org
  8. 8Venezuela government denounces 'hysteria' as opposition...newsroom.ap.org
  9. 9Dispute over Venezuelan election fuels protests... - Newsroomnewsroom.ap.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is officially scheduled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A "No" resolution occurs if no such date is scheduled by this deadline. A key condition for a "Yes" resolution is that the scheduled election must be set to occur before 2030.

Market Discussion

Traders express significant doubt that a Venezuelan presidential election will be scheduled by the specified date. Arguments for "No" emphasize ongoing political instability, reports of the U.S. potentially ruling out elections, and the interim government's lack of a firm timeline, which is tied to internal negotiations and reduced external pressures. While some opposition voices suggest possible election windows, the market's consensus heavily leans towards "No," with "Yes" currently trading at 16%, reflecting low confidence in an election being scheduled by year-end.

4. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 18, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality1
Poor
Liquidity
1

3 contracts · worst first

December 311
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

March 31—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

January 31—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

3 contracts · worst first

December 31—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

March 31—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

January 31—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

3 contracts · worst first

December 31100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
March 31100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
January 31100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 18, 2026

5. What is the projected timeline for reforming Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE)?

CNE Reform TimelineNo publicly reported timeline or formal plan (August 2026) [1]
Electoral Reform Negotiations Start DateAugust 1, 2026 [2][3][4]
Presidential Election TimelineNo finalized timeline [5][6]
Venezuela lacks a public timeline for National Electoral Council (CNE) reform. As of August 2026, there is no publicly reported timeline or formal plan for reforming the National Electoral Council (CNE) [1]. Despite this, the Venezuelan government and a portion of the opposition have launched a bilateral technical working group specifically to design electoral reforms, which includes the formation of a new CNE [1][2][3][7].
Negotiations for electoral reform began in August 2026. Formal discussions between the 2015 National Assembly (representing the opposition) and the 2026 National Assembly (representing the ruling party) commenced on August 1, 2026 [2][3][4]. These talks prioritize the strengthening of democratic institutions and the electoral system [2][3][4]. However, there is no finalized timeline for the next presidential election, as the ruling government previously ruled out immediate elections to focus on national stabilization after the January 2026 transition of power [5][6]. Prediction markets indicate general uncertainty and a low probability of an imminent electoral calendar [5][6][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for January 15, 2026ballotpedia.org
  2. 2Venezuela government, opposition launch democratic rebuilding process - UPI.comupi.com
  3. 3US-backed talks between Venezuela's two parliaments to begin August 1 — MercoPressen.mercopress.com
  4. 4US-backed Venezuela talks to begin without opposition leader Machado | The Straits Timesstraitstimes.com
  5. 5Democratic elections in Venezuela won't happen overnightchathamhouse.org
  6. 6Venezuela's National Assembly chief rules out new...aljazeera.com
  7. 7Venezuela’s New Political Dialogue Opens Without Its Most Powerful Opposition Voice – The Tower Posttower-post.com
  8. 8Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?polymarket.com
  9. 9Venezuela Predictions & Real-Time Oddspolymarket.com
  10. 10Will Venezuela Hold Free Presidential Elections Before 2027? | FUTARCHY.mediafutarchy.media

6. What specific institutional reforms must be completed in Venezuela before a presidential election can be scheduled?

Negotiations launchAugust 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]
Constitutional election deadlineJuly 3, 2026 [3]
Current recognized President (US Admin)Delcy Rodríguez (as of August 2026) [6]
Venezuelan elections require specific institutional reforms to restore democratic order. Before a presidential election can be scheduled, key reforms must be completed, including restructuring the National Electoral Council (CNE), reforming electoral laws, and overhauling the Supreme Court (TSJ) to restore judicial independence and ensure fair election oversight [1][2][3][5]. These reforms are central to bilateral technical working groups, launched in August 2026, which aim to rebuild democratic institutions following the January 2026 removal and detention of Nicolás Maduro [1][2][3][4][5]. Historically, credible elections in Venezuela have necessitated the restoration of constitutional order, free and transparent elections with international observation, and the release of political prisoners [7].
The U.S. has outlined a three-phase election plan. This plan, tied to election scheduling, requires the consolidation of internal security, economic restructuring, and established press freedom [1][2][4]. However, specific benchmarks for the completion of these reforms or the U.S. plan's criteria are not detailed. An institutional vacuum currently persists as of August 18, 2026, because the constitutional 180-day deadline for calling an election after the January 2026 presidential vacancy expired on July 3, 2026 [3]. As of August 2026, official statements from the current U.S. administration recognize Delcy Rodríguez as the President of Venezuela [6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Venezuela government, opposition launch democratic rebuilding process - UPI.comupi.com
  2. 2US-backed Venezuela talks to begin without opposition leader Machado | The Straits Timesstraitstimes.com
  3. 3US-backed talks between Venezuela's two parliaments to begin August 1 — MercoPressen.mercopress.com
  4. 4Democratic elections in Venezuela won't happen overnightchathamhouse.org
  5. 5US-backed Venezuela talks to begin without opposition leader Machado | The Starthestar.com.my
  6. 6Donald Trump's State of the Union Address, 2026ballotpedia.org
  7. 7Federal policy on Latin America, 2017-2018ballotpedia.org

7. How do the election timeline priorities of Venezuela's interim government and key opposition factions compare?

Presidential Election DateNo publicly confirmed date for a scheduled presidential election in Venezuela (as of mid-August 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Interim Government PriorityStabilization and institutional reforms before defining an election timeline [7][8][9][10]
Dialogue Process StartAugust 1, 2026 [7][9][11][10]
Venezuela's presidential election currently has no confirmed date as of mid-August 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The interim government, established in January 2026 under President Delcy Rodríguez following Nicolás Maduro's removal, prioritizes national stabilization and institutional reforms before committing to an election timeline. This administration also receives support from the U.S. government [7][8][9][10][1][12][13].
Venezuelan opposition factions hold diverse views regarding the election timeline [7][9][11][10]. A dialogue process commenced on August 1, 2026, involving the 2015 National Assembly, led by Dinorah Figuera, aiming to negotiate electoral reforms and a specific schedule [7][9][11][10]. However, prominent opposition leader María Corina Machado has been excluded from these particular discussions and continues to advocate for a firm election timetable, the establishment of independent electoral institutions, and the release of political prisoners [7][9][11][10].
Sources (13)
  1. 1January 2026 in AP photos | The Associated Pressap.org
  2. 2Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day - Governmentballotpedia.org
  3. 3Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?polymarket.com
  4. 4Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?web3.bitget.com
  5. 5Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...? - AWOIXawoix.fun
  6. 6https://polymarket.com/it/event/venezuela-presidential-election-scheduled-bypolymarket.com
  7. 7US-backed talks between Venezuela's two parliaments to begin August 1 — MercoPressen.mercopress.com
  8. 8US-backed Venezuela talks to begin without opposition leader Machado | The Straits Timesstraitstimes.com
  9. 9Venezuela government, opposition launch democratic rebuilding process - UPI.comupi.com
  10. 10Venezuela’s New Political Dialogue Opens Without Its Most Powerful Opposition Voice – The Tower Posttower-post.com
  11. 11María Corina Machado and Edmundo González hope that the dialogue between Chavismo and an opposition group will achieve elections | De Último Minuto Englishdeultimominuto.net
  12. 12White House praises Machado as a 'brave voice' while...newsroom.ap.org
  13. 13A month on from devastating double earthquakes...newsroom.ap.org

8. What public data tracks the progress of the US-facilitated negotiations in Venezuela?

Negotiations Start DateAugust 1, 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Official Policy DocumentationExecutive orders, e.g., January 9, 2026 executive order [5]
Public Tracker AvailabilityNo standardized public tracker for US-Venezuela negotiations [5]
No dedicated public tracker exists for US-Venezuela negotiation progress. As of August 18, 2026, there is no standardized public tracker specifically for US-facilitated negotiations with Venezuela [5][6]. Publicly available information regarding US-Venezuela relations is generally documented through government executive orders and official announcements [5][6].
US-backed negotiations began to rebuild Venezuela's democratic institutions. US-facilitated negotiations between the Venezuelan government and an opposition faction commenced on August 1, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. These talks aim to reconstruct democratic institutions and establish conditions for future elections [1][2][3][4]. The U.S. administration supports this process, intending to facilitate a gradual transition while linking sanctions relief to a three-phase plan [1][2][3][4][7].
Prediction markets track some events, but not negotiation progress. While prediction markets like Polymarket track specific events such as the announcement of a Venezuelan presidential election date [8][9][10], they do not serve as centralized, expert-curated repositories for the progress of the US-facilitated negotiations [5][6]. Their focus includes US domestic elections, rather than acting as a dedicated tracker for these diplomatic talks [5][6][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1US-backed talks between Venezuela's government and...apnews.com
  2. 2US-backed talks between Venezuela's two parliaments to begin August 1 — MercoPressen.mercopress.com
  3. 3Venezuela government, opposition launch democratic rebuilding process - UPI.comupi.com
  4. 4US-backed Venezuela talks to begin without opposition leader Machado | The Straits Timesstraitstimes.com
  5. 5Executive Order: Safeguarding Venezuelan Oil Revenue for the Good of the American and Venezuelan People (Donald Trump, 2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Executive Order: Imposing Tariffs on Countries Importing...ballotpedia.org
  7. 7US-backed Venezuela talks to begin without opposition leader Machado | WTAQ News Talk | 97.5 FM · 1360 AM | Green Bay, WIwtaq.com
  8. 8Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?polymarket.com
  9. 9https://polymarket.copilot.markets/predictions/venezuelapolymarket.copilot.markets
  10. 10Presidential Election Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  11. 11Donald Trump's executive orders and actions on trade...ballotpedia.org

9. What US policy actions could impact the timeline for Venezuela's next presidential election?

US policy focusConditioning easing of financial sanctions on free and fair elections, not immediate vote (as of August 18, 2026) [1][2][3]
US-backed talks start dateAugust 1, 2026 [1][4][3]
Presidential election statusNo announced date for new presidential election beyond the disputed 2024 contest [5][6]
US policy prioritizes electoral conditions over immediate election demands. As of August 18, 2026, US policy actions concerning Venezuela are focused on conditioning the easing of financial sanctions on the establishment of conditions for free and fair elections, rather than demanding an immediate vote [1][2][3][4]. Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, the United States supports a process of 'democratic rebuilding,' though there is no set date for the next presidential election [1][2][3][4]. Secretary of State Marco Rubio leads this US policy, emphasizing 'strategic patience' through a three-stage plan: stabilization, economic recovery, and political transition [1][2][3].
US actions intensify pressure amid ongoing electoral reform talks. Under the second Trump administration, US pressure on the Maduro government significantly intensified in 2025 and 2026, including covert CIA actions, an increased military presence in the Caribbean, and sanctions-related seizures [5][6]. These efforts also encompassed a January 2026 executive order to safeguard Venezuelan oil revenue and increased sanctions [5][6]. Concurrently, US-backed talks commenced on August 1, 2026, between the Venezuelan government and the 2015 National Assembly opposition to discuss electoral reforms, notably without the immediate participation of prominent opposition leader María Corina Machado [1][4][3].
Despite efforts, a new election date remains uncertain. Despite these intensified US policy actions, a new presidential election date beyond the disputed 2024 contest has not yet been announced [5][6]. Prediction markets reflect significant uncertainty regarding an election being scheduled, assigning low probabilities for one occurring by year-end 2026 [7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Venezuela's Post-Maduro Political Transition and U.S. Policyeverycrsreport.com
  2. 2Venezuela government, opposition launch democratic rebuilding process - UPI.comupi.com
  3. 3US-backed Venezuela talks to begin without opposition leader Machado | The Straits Timesstraitstimes.com
  4. 4US-backed talks between Venezuela's two parliaments to begin August 1 — MercoPressen.mercopress.com
  5. 5Executive Order: Safeguarding Venezuelan Oil Revenue for the Good of the American and Venezuelan People (Donald Trump, 2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6US sought to lure Nicolás Maduro's pilot into betraying the...ap.org
  7. 7Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?polymarket.com
  8. 8Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?web3.bitget.com
  9. 9https://polymarket.copilot.markets/predictions/venezuelapolymarket.copilot.markets

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Nicolás Maduro's tenure as president of Venezuela ended in January 2026 when he was captured by the U.S. military [1][2]. As of August 18, 2026, no date has been scheduled for a presidential election in Venezuela following the U.S.-backed ouster of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 [3][4][5][6][7]. A U.S.-supported democratic transition process is underway [3][5][7].
This process features negotiations between the interim government and opposition factions in Caracas that concluded their first round on August 12, 2026 [3][5][7]. The agreed-upon roadmap includes reforming the judiciary and appointing a new National Electoral Council (CNE) by the end of 2026 [3][5][7]. The date '2026-03-31T00:00:00Z' frequently appears in the context of prediction markets, specifically related to political event resolutions, but it is not linked to an official Venezuelan election date [8][9][10][11][12]. The most recent presidential election in Venezuela prior to the 2026 events took place in 2024, which was marred by controversy and claims of fraud [13][1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: March 31, 2026
Sources (13)
  1. 1A baseball title unleashes the happiness Venezuelans kept...ap.org
  2. 2January 2026 in AP photos | The Associated Pressap.org
  3. 3Venezuela: Gov’t and Opposition Open US-Backed Talks to Overhaul Electoral, Judicial Authorities - Venezuelanalysisvenezuelanalysis.com
  4. 4Venezuela talks end with agreement on judicial reform and frozen funds - France 24france24.com
  5. 5Venezuela’s future is being decided in a new negotiation under Washington’s watch | International | EL PAÍS Englishenglish.elpais.com
  6. 6US-backed democracy talks start in Venezuela without Nobel laureate María Corina Machado | CNNcnn.com
  7. 7Venezuela's Post-Maduro Political Transition and U.S. Policyeverycrsreport.com
  8. 8Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? · Market Aheadmarketahead.com
  9. 9manja316/polymarket-historical-prices · Datasets at...huggingface.co
  10. 10API Reference - aipollo.aipollo.io
  11. 11Intelligence Alertdatasurfr.ai
  12. 12Republican 2026 Senate odds hit___ by March 31? · Market Aheadmarketahead.com
  13. 13AP’s multiformat team shows the daily struggles for many Venezuelans to access food | The Associated Pressap.org