Crude Oil all time high by...? Polymarket
September 30
Market Model 4.8% 3.8%
December 31
Market Model 12.0% 9.3%
Geopolitics Markets
Active Markets (7)
Yes
Market Model 60.0% 56.7%
Ukraine election called by...? Polymarket
August 31, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 0.7%
December 31, 2026
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Ukraine election held by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 1.7%
Trump out as President before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 5.2%
December 31
Market Model 9.0% 4.5%
August 31
Market Model 2.4% 1.2%
Netanyahu out by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 39.0% 37.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil all time high by...? Top outcome: September 30 | 4.8% | 3.8% | High | $2,414,636.5 | Refresh |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes refers to: Yes | 60.0% | 56.7% | Med | $7,274,430.66 | Refresh |
| Ukraine election called by...? Top outcome: August 31, 2026 | 2.0% | 0.7% | High | $1,780,551.47 | Refresh |
| Ukraine election held by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 5.0% | 1.7% | High | $2,491,208.68 | Refresh |
| Trump out as President before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 5.2% | Med | $10,489,655.39 | Refresh |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 9.0% | 4.5% | High | $17,658,058.45 | Refresh |
| Netanyahu out by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 39.0% | 37.5% | High | $123,899,281.14 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 23.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 43.0% | 23.9% | High | $767,366.84 |
