December 31
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
October 31
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
U.S. x Iran Markets
Active Markets (3)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 64.0% 55.0%
October 31
Market Model 41.0% 28.6%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 4.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | 65 | Refresh |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 64.0% | 55.0% | High | 59 | Refresh |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 8.0% | 4.6% | High | 66 | Refresh |
