Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Trump Markets
Active Markets (6)
December 31
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
October 31
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket
September 30
Market Model 21.0% 14.2%
December 31
Market Model 64.0% 55.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Venezuela leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Richard Grenell
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Frank Donovan
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Trump out as President before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 5.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 15.0% | Med | 56 | Refresh |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Top outcome: September 30 | 21.0% | 14.2% | High | 59 | Refresh |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | 56 | Refresh |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Richard Grenell | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | 56 | Refresh |
| Trump out as President before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 5.2% | Med | 33 | Refresh |
