US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
October 31
Market Model 2.5% 1.2%
Iran Ceasefire Markets
Active Markets (4)
December 31
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
October 31
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 4.6%
Yes
Market Model 60.0% 56.7%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Top outcome: December 31 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | 65 | Refresh |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 8.0% | 4.6% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes refers to: Yes | 60.0% | 56.7% | Med | 70 | Refresh |
