Short Answer

Evidence confirms Kharg Island remains under Iranian control through 2026, making a change in sovereignty by December 31 unlikely, priced at 8.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's decline toward zero was a function of time decay as the August 31, 2026 resolution date approached. With no change in the island's status reported, the probability of Iran losing control collapsed. The context confirms Kharg Island remained under Iranian control, causing similar contracts to resolve to "No" and effectively guaranteeing this outcome.
Throughout its brief trading period, the market consistently priced the loss of Iranian control as a highly improbable event, with the "Yes" probability never rising above 1.1%. The zero-volume environment indicates that price movements were not driven by trader activity or reactions to news. Instead, the fluctuations and final decay from 0.8% to 0.1% reflect automated adjustments by the market maker as the contract neared its certain "No" resolution.
  • Since last update (~27d): Headline market probability dropped 1.9pp, with model probability down 1.4pp; edge compressed.
  • September 30 outcome saw market-led probability fall 1.8pp; the edge compressed.
  • March 31, June 24, and July 31 outcomes all resolved to 'no'.
  • Kharg Island likely remains Iranian, indispensable as its primary oil export hub.
  • Iran has significantly fortified Kharg Island, reinforcing expectations of continued control.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
December 31 8.0% 4.6% Evidence confirms Kharg Island remains under Iranian control, solidifying expectation through 2026.

Current Context

Kharg Island remains under Iranian control despite external pressures in 2026. As of August 31, 2026, the island is under Iranian control [1]. Prediction markets for Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control by August 31, 2026, are resolving to "No," indicating no change in sovereignty or primary governmental control [2][3][4][5][6]. Similar contracts for earlier dates in 2026 also resolved with the island remaining under Iranian control [7][8]. Claims by U.S. President Donald Trump in late August 2026 that the island was "blown to smithereens" were dismissed by Iranian officials as "laughable" and lacked credible evidence [1][9][10].
Kharg Island operations continue amid blockade and strategic regional tensions. While a U.S. naval blockade, initiated in mid-April 2026, has severely constrained operational capacity, the island continues to function as an Iranian-controlled facility [11][12]. Crude oil loading resumed in mid-August 2026, following periods of inactivity in late July and early August [11][12]. U.S. airstrikes on military targets on the island on March 13, 2026, did not lead to its seizure [13][14]. Furthermore, President Trump stated on June 12, 2026, that plans to seize Kharg Island were "off the table" after a reported agreement [15]. The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point of U.S.-Iran hostilities, with Iran asserting control [16][17][18]. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father as Iran's Supreme Leader in early 2026, maintains a confrontational stance regarding the Strait [19][20][21][22].
Sources (22)
  1. 1Iran Calls Trump’s Kharg Island Attack Claim ‘Laughable’, Says Oil Operations Continue | Outlook Indiaoutlookindia.com
  2. 2Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Predi... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  3. 3Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?laikalabs.ai
  4. 4Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by… Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com
  5. 5Kharg Island Under Iranian Control by End of 2026? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  6. 6Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?limitless.exchange
  7. 7strait-of-hormuz-prediction-markets-iran-oil-shipping-live-data.mdgithub.com
  8. 8polymarket-autotrader/CLAUDE.md at maingithub.com
  9. 9U.S., Iran exchange strikes for first time since July as Trump...cnbc.com
  10. 10Is Iran’s Kharg Island Under Attack? Trump Offers No Evidence - Modern Diplomacymoderndiplomacy.eu
  11. 11Crude Loading Resumes At Iran’s Kharg Island Terminal - Maritime Newsmaritimenews.com
  12. 12No tankers loaded at Kharg Island for a week amid US blockade, FT says | The Jerusalem Postjpost.com
  13. 13U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  14. 14U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  15. 15MorningNews_20260613_Claude-1-2-2.mdgithub.com
  16. 16Pakistan Says Deal Is Close Even as Iran, US Harden Stances | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com
  17. 17Trump Signals Economic Pressure on Iran; Israel Rejects US Proposal | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  18. 18Iran's Economic Lifeline; Previewing Nvidia Earnings | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  19. 19Iran war: What happens if Trump pushes to seize Kharg...cnbc.com
  20. 20U.S. bombing of Kharg Island, Iran's critical oil hub, sparks new threats to target Gulf oil infrastructurenbcnews.com
  21. 21Why Iran's Kharg Island is central to Strait of Hormuz security | Iran Internationaliranintl.news
  22. 22Kharg Island: Iran’s energy lifeline that has so far escaped attacktheconversation.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market, sourced from Polymarket, resolves to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iran's primary governmental or military control by any of the specified deadlines (e.g., March 31, April 15, July 31, August 31, September 30, or December 31, 2026, all at 11:59 PM ET), with another state or authority having established actual control. It resolves to "No" if Iran retains control, if control is contested/unclear by the deadline, or if only temporary disruptions, raids, or claims without actual established control occur. Resolution relies on official government/military statements and a consensus of credible reporting.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
December 31 $0.08 $0.93 8%

Market Discussion

As of August 31, 2026, Kharg Island remains under Iranian control, with officials dismissing claims of seizure and stating that oil operations continue despite a U.S. naval blockade and earlier reported U.S. military strikes on the island [1][2][3]. Consequently, a prediction market asking if Kharg Island would no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026, would resolve to "No" [4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1Iran Calls Trump’s Kharg Island Attack Claim ‘Laughable’, Says Oil Operations Continue | Outlook Indiaoutlookindia.com
  2. 2U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  3. 3U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  4. 4Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Predi... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.copilot.markets

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 66 Caution

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Integrity risk· Outcome control

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score69Caution
Trade quality20% of score54Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score66Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 4 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
65Caution

Outcome can be influenced

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Screened clean
Participant influenceNo conflicted participant detected. Clear
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
68Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first · 9 settled or closed — not scored

December 3122
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

October 3170
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first · 9 settled or closed — not scored

December 31—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

October 31—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first · 9 settled or closed — not scored

December 31100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
October 31100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
54Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 69 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~8% of a 6.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.9c slippage (~14% of a 6.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

9 settled or closed — not scored

December 3122Market scoreLiquidity22Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 22
Liquidity
22 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
October 3170Market scoreLiquidity70Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 70
Liquidity
70 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 2, 2026

5. What specific Iranian military actions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a direct U.S. intervention aimed at seizing Kharg Island?

Current Control StatusUnder Iranian control as of August 31, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]
Proximity to Iranian Mainland15-21 miles [1][6][7]
Prediction Market Probability (no longer under Iranian control by Aug 31, 2026)5%-12% as of early August 2026 [8]
Iranian military actions could trigger a U.S. intervention to seize Kharg Island. The U.S. has threatened to seize Kharg Island as a direct response to Iran's continued interference with the free and safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Specific Iranian military actions that could trigger such an intervention include closing the strait and attacking tankers [1][2][3][9].
Kharg Island remains under Iranian control despite U.S. military actions. As of August 31, 2026, Kharg Island remains under Iranian control, despite extensive U.S. airstrikes against military targets on the island and public threats from President Donald Trump [1][2][3][4][5]. Military analysts indicate that while a seizure of Kharg Island is technically feasible, it would involve high risk. This is primarily due to the island's proximity to the Iranian mainland, approximately 15-21 miles, which would expose U.S. troops to artillery, drone, and missile attacks from Iranian forces [1][6][7].
Prediction markets show a low probability of Kharg Island changing hands. These markets have consistently assigned a very low probability, ranging from 5% to 12% as of early August 2026, to Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control by August 31, 2026 [8].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Seizing Iran's Kharg Island would be a risk, experts say | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 2Trump mulls risky Kharg Island takeover to force Iran...axios.com
  3. 3Trump says US ‘may take over Kharg Island’: Here’s what you need to know | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
  4. 4How the US could try to seize Iran’s Kharg Island - and why it might backfire - CNAchannelnewsasia.com
  5. 5The Kharg Island Gamble: A Probabilistic Risk Analysis of a U.S. Seizure Strategyindrastra.com
  6. 6Kharg Island: How the US could seize Iran's key oil terminalbbc.com
  7. 7Examining US Military Options for Kharg Island and the...hudson.org
  8. 8Thorny-Fir's Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Bearish Analysis | Questflownext.questflow.ai
  9. 9Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal is a prime but risky US target | AP Newsapnews.com

6. How critical is Kharg Island to Iran's economy versus its other oil export terminals like those at Sirri or Lavan islands?

Crude Oil Export Share90% to 96% of Iran's crude oil exports [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
Primary RoleIran's primary oil export hub [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
Current ControlRemains under Iranian control as of August 31, 2026 [8][6]
Kharg Island is Iran's indispensable primary oil export hub. It serves as the country's central facility for crude oil exports, processing approximately 90% to 96% of its total exports [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. This critical function makes Kharg Island essential for Iran's economy and its generation of foreign currency revenue [1][2][3][4][5][6][7].
Other terminals lack the capacity to replace Kharg Island. Facilities located at Lavan and Sirri islands, among others, are utilized for secondary purposes, such as crude top-ups or specific offshore field blending operations [9][1][2][8]. These alternative terminals do not possess the necessary infrastructure or capacity to effectively substitute for Kharg Island in the event of a prolonged disruption [9][1][2][8].
Kharg Island's oil facilities remain under Iranian control despite recent events. As of August 31, 2026, the island continued to be controlled by Iran [8][6]. Although U.S. forces conducted strikes on military targets on Kharg Island on March 14, 2026, the vital oil facilities were neither targeted nor seized during these operations [8][6].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Explainer: Kharg Island, Iran’s oil export hub | Latest Market Newsargusmedia.com
  2. 2Why Iran's Kharg Island is central to Strait of Hormuz security | Iran Internationaliranintl.news
  3. 3Kharg Island: Iran's Oil Backbone & Greatest Vulnerability EXPLAINER: Why Kharg Island is the backbone of Iran’s oil economy – and its greatest vulnerability | Kpler - Mar 16, 2026kpler.com
  4. 4Explainer: Why Kharg Island is vital to Iran and the global economy | Euronewseuronews.com
  5. 5What is Kharg Island? Iranian petroleum site takes center stage as oil prices soar - ABC Newsabcnews.com
  6. 6Kharg Island, struck by US, is key hub for Iran oil exports | Reutersreuters.com
  7. 7Kharg Island: The Chokepoint Behind 96% of Iran’s Oil Exports - Iran Open Data (IOD)iranopendata.org
  8. 8Kharg Island | Oil Terminal, Attack, Significance, Map,...britannica.com
  9. 9Background Reference: Iraneia.gov

7. How do the U.S. Fifth Fleet's amphibious assault capabilities compare to Iran's anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy for defending Kharg Island?

Kharg Island StatusUnder Iranian control (as of August 31, 2026) [1][2][3]
U.S. Military Operations (Kharg)Air strikes against military infrastructure (March 2026) [1][2][3]
Iranian Defense Strategy (Kharg)Layered anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) [4][5][6][7][1]
U.S. amphibious forces confront Iran's layered Kharg Island defenses. The U.S. Fifth Fleet maintains advanced amphibious assault capabilities, supported by regional Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs). These forces utilize assets such as F-35B short takeoff/vertical landing fighter jets, MV-22 Osprey aircraft, and ship-to-shore landing craft for crisis response and multi-domain operations [8][9][10][1]. In contrast, Iran defends Kharg Island with a layered anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy designed to create a 'kill zone' for invading forces [4][5][6][7][1].
Iran’s defensive strategy integrates diverse assets, complicating U.S. seizure efforts. Iran's A2/AD strategy for Kharg Island incorporates mainland-based anti-ship missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, and artillery, alongside localized air defense systems like Sayyad-2/3 and Mersad, sea mines, FPV kamikaze drones, and fortified infantry positions [4][5][6][7][1]. A strategic calculus for a U.S. seizure of Kharg Island involves a "paradox of preservation," where destroying necessary Iranian military assets for an assault could severely damage critical oil infrastructure, leading to unintended global economic consequences [5][6][11][12]. Additionally, the island's close proximity to the Iranian mainland makes sustainment of any occupation a high-risk, ongoing siege [5][6][11][12].
Kharg Island remains under Iranian control, with limited U.S. military action. As of August 31, 2026, Kharg Island remains under Iranian control, and there are no verified reports of its capture [1][2][3]. U.S. military operations specifically targeting the island have primarily been limited to air strikes against military infrastructure in March 2026 [1][2][3].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Kharg: Iran fortifying Kharg Island as US weighs possible seizure plan, laying traps and moving air defences: Report - The Times of Indiatimesofindia.indiatimes.com
  2. 2Kharg Island | Oil Terminal, Attack, Significance, Map,...britannica.com
  3. 3Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal is a prime but risky US targetapnews.com
  4. 4Iran's asymmetric maritime strategy in the Strait of Hormuz...faf.ae
  5. 5Kharg Island: Iran's Crown Jewel, Greatest Vulnerability, and the Perilous Calculus of Seizure and Sustainment - Defence Research and Studiesdras.in
  6. 6Kharg Island: The Illusion of Decisive Victory and...csconversations.in
  7. 7Iran’s Kharg Island Defenses Blasted | SOFREPsofrep.com
  8. 8AT SEA, FROM THE SEA, AND ASHOREtf515.marines.mil
  9. 9USS Tripoli ARG And 31st MEU Complete Six-Month Indo-Pacific And CENTCOM Deploymentoceannews.com
  10. 10Forward-Deployed U.S. Navy Flattop Concluding Six-Month Missionforbes.com
  11. 11Kharg Island: Iran's Oil Backbone & Greatest Vulnerabilitykpler.com
  12. 12Why does the US have Iran's Kharg Island in its sights?bbc.com

8. Which publicly available datasets can be used to monitor the operational status of the Kharg Island oil terminal in near real-time?

SAR monitoring lead time4–7 weeks ahead of official statistics [1][2]
Loading resumption confirmedMid-August 2026 [3][4]
Key monitoring methodsSAR imagery, Hormuz Monitor, GitHub projects, commercial analytics firms [1][2][5][6][7][8]
Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery effectively monitors Kharg Island terminal status. This technology, exemplified by Sentinel-1, allows for the near real-time detection of storage levels and vessel berthing at the terminal [1][2]. SAR imagery offers monitoring independent of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and has historically provided indicators 4–7 weeks in advance of official statistics [1][2]. For instance, satellite imagery confirmed the resumption of crude loading in mid-August 2026 following periods of inactivity caused by US naval blockade efforts, showcasing the practical utility of this monitoring approach [3][4].
Specialized platforms and commercial firms offer extensive real-time monitoring. Near real-time observation of tanker traffic and terminal activity is also available through a variety of specialized platforms and open-source projects [5][6][7][8]. Examples include Hormuz Monitor, which offers API-based risk and transit tracking [5], and open-source initiatives hosted on GitHub, such as strait-of-hormuz-data and hormuz-ship-tracker [6][7]. Furthermore, commercial maritime analytics firms, including Windward, Kpler, and TankerMap, provide comprehensive insights into tanker movements and terminal operations by cross-referencing AIS and satellite data [5][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Iran Oil Exports — Satellite Data & Kharg Island Storage...oilradar.io
  2. 2How we track Iranian crude oil exports using Sentinel-1 SAR satellite imagery | by Vladislav Bachevsky | Jun, 2026 | Mediummedium.com
  3. 3Crude Loading Resumes At Iran’s Kharg Island Terminal - Maritime Newsmaritimenews.com
  4. 4Kharg Reactivates as Iran's Caspian Corridor Expandswindward.ai
  5. 5Hormuz Monitor API - Strait of Hormuzhormuzmonitor.com
  6. 6jasonhjohnson/strait-of-hormuz-datagithub.com
  7. 7yasumorishima/hormuz-ship-trackergithub.com
  8. 8satlens/satlensgithub.com

9. What does recent open-source intelligence reveal about Iran's defensive fortifications and military readiness on Kharg Island?

Current Control StatusIranian (as of August 31, 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Deployed DefensesAdditional personnel, MANPADS, anti-personnel and anti-armor mines [1][3][5][4]
Probable Control through 2026Over 92% chance Iran retains control (as of late August 2026) [6][7]
Iran has significantly fortified Kharg Island against potential military assaults. Recent open-source intelligence indicates the deployment of additional personnel, MANPADS (shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles), and the laying of anti-personnel and anti-armor mines along the shoreline [1][3][5][4]. These measures aim to deter potential amphibious or air-assault landings. Furthermore, the IRGC maintains a naval presence, specifically the 112th Zolfaghar Surface Combat Brigade, which monitors and controls the nearby waters surrounding Kharg Island [1][3][5][4].
Kharg Island remains under Iranian control despite recent U.S. military actions. As of August 31, 2026, the island is still held by Iran, even after significant U.S. airstrikes on its military targets during March and April 2026 [1][2][3][4]. The United States has not launched a ground invasion to seize the island [1][2][3][4]. Prediction markets overwhelmingly suggest that Kharg Island will continue to be under Iranian control through the remainder of 2026, with a very low probability, typically under 8%, assigned to any scenario where Iran loses primary control by the end of the year, as of late August 2026 [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Iran building up defenses of Kharg Island to protect against...cnn.com
  2. 2Kharg Island: Why does the US have it in its sights?bbc.com
  3. 3Kharg: Iran fortifying Kharg Island as US weighs possible seizure plan, laying traps and moving air defences: Report - The Times of Indiatimesofindia.indiatimes.com
  4. 4Limited US Ground Operations in Iran Will Not Shift the...quincyinst.org
  5. 5Why Iran's Kharg Island is central to Strait of Hormuz security | Iran Internationaliranintl.com
  6. 6Kharg Island Under Iranian Control by End of 2026? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  7. 7Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by… Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The U.S.-Iran conflict persists, marked by a naval blockade and Strait of Hormuz tensions [1][2][3]. Prediction markets anticipate a continued state of managed, frozen conflict into 2027, with low likelihood for a formal U.S.-Iran nuclear deal or permanent ceasefire in the immediate term [4]. While tactical pauses occurred, such as the ceasefire reported on May 23, 2026, observers characterized these as temporary [5][6]. Kharg Island remains under Iranian control as of August 31, 2026 [7][8]. Prediction markets assign a 5-7% probability to it being under non-Iranian control by the end of 2026 [7][8]. Despite U.S. strikes targeting military facilities on March 13, 2026, the island was not seized [9][10][11][12][13].
Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Iran's supreme leader on February 28, 2026, following his father's death during U.S.-Israeli airstrikes [14][15][16]. He has governed through written messages and delegated authority, remaining publicly unseen [14][15]. Regional actors like Qatar and Oman are engaged in active, unofficial negotiations and mediation efforts between Iran and the U.S. [1][2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (16)
  1. 1Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027? | Manifoldmanifold.markets
  2. 2Iran’s Khamenei calls for Gulf unity as Hormuz tensions persist | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
  3. 3US Readies Isolation Plan for Iran; Trump Tariffs on Drones | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  4. 4When will the US and Iran jointly publish a formal agreement or permanent ceasefire document?wooleyrhinoresearch.com
  5. 5realfishsam/polymarket-iran-may-23github.com
  6. 6danielrosehill/Iran-Israel-Ceasefire-Prediction-090426github.com
  7. 7Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Predi... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  8. 8Kharg Island Under Iranian Control by End of 2026? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  9. 9The Strait of Hormuz: Security Developments and Impacts...congress.gov
  10. 10https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/HTML/R45281.htmlcongress.gov
  11. 11U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  12. 12U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  13. 13U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  14. 14Iran's disfigured supreme leader remains invisible six months into an existential war - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012al-monitor.com
  15. 15Iran’s Mojtaba Khamenei urges Gulf rulers in written message to confront ‘real enemy’nbcnews.com
  16. 16Iran leader’s absence gives war camp room to shape policy | Iran Internationaliranintl.news