Short Answer

The Iranian regime is not expected to fall before 2027, with the market pricing this outcome at 7.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market is pricing a low and stable probability of Iranian regime collapse before 2027. Price fluctuations between 6.5% and 7.5% occurred in a zero-volume environment, indicating they are not reactions to news but rather minor adjustments in an inactive market. No trades have been executed, so there is no market sentiment to analyze.
The stability at a low probability aligns with reports from late August 2026. News indicates the regime is under significant, prolonged pressure from military conflict, sanctions, and internal divisions. However, these same reports confirm that the pressures have not yet been sufficient to trigger a collapse. The market's lack of activity suggests traders do not see these ongoing strains as altering the fundamental, low-probability outlook for regime change by the end of the year.
  • Since last update (~28d): Our model's 'Yes' probability increased by +1.4pp, compressing the edge to 0.0 (model_led).
  • The market's 'Yes' probability remained unchanged at 7.0% since the prior report.
  • Our confidence score for the analysis remained stable at 5.0 (+0.0pp).
  • No collapse is likely; the regime maintains robust internal security.
  • No collapse, despite severe 2025/26 economic crisis and widespread protests.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Yes 7.0% 7.0% Persistent domestic unrest and geopolitical pressures may lead to the Iranian regime's fall.

Current Context

The Iranian regime remains in power as of September 2026, despite significant strains. A prolonged military conflict, severe economic sanctions, and deepening internal divisions continue to pressure the regime [1][2][3]. While U.S. and Israeli military pressure has damaged Iran's industrial and military capabilities, it has not yet triggered the regime's collapse or a successful popular uprising [1][4][5]. The regime has responded by tightening its security apparatus, appointing figures with intelligence backgrounds to key roles, and attempting to preempt potential unrest [6][3][7]. Following Supreme Leader Khamenei's death, an interim governing council was established, comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and Alireza Arafi, demonstrating an effort toward institutional continuity rather than immediate collapse [8][9][10].
Organized domestic opposition capable of regime change remains absent within Iran. Exiled figures like Reza Pahlavi have actively called for protests and regime change, proposing a transition plan for a post-Islamic Republic [11][12][13][14]. However, Pahlavi lacks formal backing from the Trump administration and faces mixed domestic support, with skepticism regarding his organization's reach [11][15]. Despite widespread protests in late 2025 and January 2026, and a weakened strategic position due to military degradation and economic crisis, there is no evidence of widespread defections from the military, security forces, or political elite necessary for a regime collapse [13][16]. Congressional research sources note the absence of an organized, effective, and broadly supported Iran-based opposition movement [13][14].
The regime's near-term collapse is not guaranteed, with low probabilities forecast. Expert analysis indicates that while the regime's long-term future is increasingly precarious, its near-term collapse remains uncertain, and the transition process is highly volatile [17][18]. Quantitative projections for forced regime change in Iran (defined as removal of the IRGC and replacement with a non-autocratic government) by April 2027 estimate a low probability, generally ranging between 4% and 12% [19].
Sources (19)
  1. 1Iran’s internal power struggle could decide when Trump’s war ends | CNNcnn.com
  2. 2Iran's Internal Crisis: Balancing War, Sanctions, and Diplomacy | النهارannahar.com
  3. 3Regime Infighting Deepens as Fear of a New Uprising Exposes Cracks at the Top - Iran News Updateirannewsupdate.com
  4. 4The Iran War, Six Months In - The Soufan Centerthesoufancenter.org
  5. 5Could Iran’s Regime Collapse? Experts Assess Bessent’s Bid to Sever Financial Lifelines - Middle East Forummeforum.org
  6. 66 Months on, Iran’s Leaders Are Defying the US and Signaling No Tolerance for Dissentmilitary.com
  7. 7After Khamenei: Planning for Iran's Leadership Transitioncfr.org
  8. 8U.S. and Israeli Military Operations Againstcongress.gov
  9. 9U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  10. 10U.S. and Israeli Military Operations Against Iran: Issues for Congress | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  11. 11Regime change? Inside Reza Pahlavi’s faltering bid to lead Iran | The Times of Israeltimesofisrael.com
  12. 12Reza Pahlavi, exiled son of Iran's last shah, at centre of protest chants - BBC Newsbbc.co.uk
  13. 13Protests in Iran: Possible U.S. Responses and Issues forcongress.gov
  14. 14The Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) or People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  15. 15An exiled crown prince says he can lead Iran to democracy, but Trump hasn't endorsed himnbcnews.com
  16. 16Protests in Iran: Possible U.S. Responses and Issues for...congress.gov
  17. 17How Long Can the Iranian Regime Hold On? | Foreign Affairsforeignaffairs.com
  18. 18The Iranian Regime Could Fall | Foreign Affairsforeignaffairs.com
  19. 19danielrosehill/Iran-Regime-Change-Forecast-1004github.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Here is a summary of the contract rules for this prediction market:

1. What exactly triggers a YES resolution: A "Yes" resolution occurs if the Islamic Republic of Iran's current ruling regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This requires a broad consensus of credible reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g., the office of the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or have lost de facto power over a majority of the Iranian population. A clear break in continuity, such as a new provisional government or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic, is necessary. 2. What triggers a NO resolution: A "No" resolution will occur if the conditions for a "Yes" are not met by the specified deadline. Routine political events like elections, reforms, or leadership succession, as well as internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures, do not qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel/exile groups also will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population. 3. Key dates/deadlines: The market's resolution is determined by events occurring on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This is the definitive cutoff for the Iranian regime's fall to trigger a "Yes" outcome. 4. Any special settlement conditions: The market's resolution will be determined by a broad consensus of credible reporting. This consensus must verify the dissolution, incapacitation, or replacement of the Islamic Republic's core governing structures.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Yes $0.07 $0.94 7%

Market Discussion

Traders overwhelmingly anticipate the Iranian regime will not fall before 2027, with the market indicating only a 7% probability of collapse. This strong consensus is attributed to the regime's proven institutional continuity, its capacity for repression in the face of major protests, and a smooth leadership succession even following external military strikes. The low likelihood of collapse stems from the perceived absence of a unified opposition, sustained elite fracturing, or nationwide mobilization capable of overcoming security forces.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 47 High Risk

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score54Caution
Trade quality20% of score19Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 8% of the price to slippage.

Trust score47High Risk

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 3 don't apply · 2 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
30High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Military/operational market: timing is known inside government before the public

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
23Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

1 contract

Yes23
Very thin · high confidence

Quoted spread 15.8% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Yes—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Yes100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
19Avoid

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 23 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~8% of a 6.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (~8% of a 6.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 0.5c slippage (~8% of a 6.5c contract)

Yes23Market scoreLiquidity23Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 23
Liquidity
23 · Very thin · high confidence

Quoted spread 15.8% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 2, 2026

5. What specific economic or military pressure points in late 2026 could trigger mass defections within Iran's IRGC, a key precursor to regime collapse?

Probability of Iranian regime fall before 20277-22% [1][2][3][4]
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's deathFebruary 2026 [1][3][5][6]
Key pressure points for IRGC defectionsCollapse of internal shadow-banking economy, sustained military strain, intensified economic deprivation [1][2][7]
Specific economic and military pressures could trigger mass defections within Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a key precursor to potential regime collapse. These pressure points include the severe strain or collapse of its internal shadow-banking economy, sustained military strain leading to logistical neglect of personnel, and intensified economic deprivation such as hyperinflation or currency collapse [1][2][7]. Such conditions could threaten the IRGC's ability to maintain its elite corporate and patronage networks, which are crucial for its internal cohesion [1][2][7].
Current assessments indicate the Iranian regime remains institutionally resilient despite recent challenges. As of September 1, 2026, prediction markets show a low probability, typically ranging from 7% to 22%, for the Iranian regime to fall before 2027, consistently viewing institutional resilience and the IRGC's economic integration as significant buffers against collapse [1][2][3][4]. Even after external military strikes and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, the IRGC has demonstrated strong institutional cohesion, effectively suppressing protests and managing succession without experiencing significant internal fractures [1][3][5][6]. This sustained stability has led intelligence assessments to conclude that the regime is consolidating power rather than nearing collapse [1][3][5][6].
External economic sanctions against Iran are intensifying once more. President Trump is reverting to a strategy of increased economic pressure on Iran, with ongoing efforts to coordinate with Iran's trading partners to apply further pressure on the regime [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Beeks.aibeeks.ai
  2. 2Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Leverage up to 5x Odds & Analysispredmart.com
  3. 3Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?polymarket.com
  4. 4Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027 by | Lines.comlines.com
  5. 5https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026polymarket.com
  6. 6U.S. intelligence says Iran's regime is consolidating powerwashingtonpost.com
  7. 7Desertions, shortages and army-IRGC rift strain Iran's militaryiranintl.com
  8. 8Trump Reverts to Economic Squeeze of Iran; Colombia Quake Toll Tops 260 | Bloomberg Daybreak: US...youtube.com
  9. 9Iran's Economic Lifeline; Previewing Nvidia Earnings | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com

6. What concrete evidence from 2026 demonstrates the cohesion of Iran's security apparatus and political elite, supporting the low market probability of collapse?

Regime collapse probabilityapproximately 6.5% before 2027 (as of August 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Elite and security cohesionDemonstrated in 2026 [1][2][3][4]
MOU expiry duration60 days [5][6]
Prediction markets indicate low probability of Iranian regime collapse. As of August 2026, prediction markets estimate an approximate 6.5% chance of the Iranian regime falling before 2027 [1][2][3][4]. This reflects a consensus that, despite significant structural stress, the core institutions of the regime remain intact. This assessment is supported by concrete evidence from 2026 demonstrating the cohesion of Iran's security apparatus and political elite [1][2][3][4].
Internal stability is maintained despite challenges through unified security action. Evidence of this cohesion includes the lack of defections within the military and security sectors, the successful suppression of widespread protests in 2026, and the strategic decision by the security core—comprising the leader's office, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and intelligence services—to close ranks [7][8][9][10][11]. This strategic move was aimed at preventing power vacuums and maintaining control during high-pressure events. Despite challenges such as economic decline, international isolation, and leadership succession concerns following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, the establishment has maintained internal order by centralizing authority within a wartime triumvirate and fostering a security-centric management style that subordinates civilian political figures [12][8][13][10].
The US adopts a harder line after a lapsed diplomatic understanding. In terms of external relations, a 60-day memorandum of understanding has expired, prompting President Trump to adopt a harder line with Iran. The United States has announced plans for an economic response following this development [5][6].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?polymarket.com
  2. 2Iran Regime Collapse 2027: Polymarket Analysis | PolyVeritaspolyveritas.com
  3. 3Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? — 10% Odds | OddsShiftoddsshift.com
  4. 4Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Beeks.aibeeks.ai
  5. 5Trump Threatens Iran ‘Economic D-Day’; Treasury Bond Fix JPMorgan Warning | Bloomberg Daybreak:...youtube.com
  6. 6Trump Takes Hard Line on Iran, China’s Xi to Skip UN Meeting | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  7. 7Iran and the reconfiguration of regional order: succession,...cidob.org
  8. 8A Strategic Failure in Iran | Cato at Liberty Blogcato.org
  9. 9The state of the Iranian regime after protestswashingtondc.jhu.edu
  10. 10BTI 2026 Iran Country Reportbti-project.org
  11. 11Iran: What challenges face the country in 2026?commonslibrary.parliament.uk
  12. 12Who will run Iran?engelsbergideas.com
  13. 13Iran Update, August 21, 2026understandingwar.org

7. How does the organizational capacity of Reza Pahlavi's opposition movement compare to the Iranian regime's internal security and control mechanisms as of late 2026?

Regime Institutional ResilienceSignificant (despite severe 2025-2026 pressures) [1][2]
Regime Control MechanismsTight control via digital surveillance, lethal force, and economic interests (IRGC, Basij, MOIS, FARAJA) [3]
Probability of Regime Fall before 2027Low (6.5% to 22%) (as of September 2026) [1][2]
Information regarding the organizational capacity of Reza Pahlavi's opposition movement is not available in the research. However, the Iranian regime demonstrates significant institutional resilience as of late 2026, despite various intense pressures [1][2]. These pressures include internal power realignments following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, severe economic contraction, and ongoing military conflicts with the United States and Israel [1][2].
The regime maintains control through its robust security apparatus and extensive economic interests. The Iranian security apparatus, comprising the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Basij, Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), and Law Enforcement Force (FARAJA), exerts tight control using advanced digital surveillance, lethal force, and managing widespread economic interests that incentivize the preservation of the current order [3]. Specific external pressures also include a US naval blockade on Iranian ports [4] and President Trump's announced plans for a severe economic response [5] following the launch of a war with Iran by the US and Israel [6]. As of September 2026, prediction markets indicate a low probability, generally between 6.5% and 22%, of the Iranian regime falling before 2027 [1][2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  2. 2https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026polymarket.com
  3. 3The Impact of Iranian Military Doctrine on the Iran Warorionpolicy.org
  4. 4US-Iran Peace Prospects Dim as Trump Rejects Truce Extension | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com
  5. 5Trump Threatens Iran ‘Economic D-Day’; Treasury Bond Fix JPMorgan Warning | Bloomberg Daybreak:...youtube.com
  6. 6Warsh At Jackson Hole; Iran Says Diplomacy Not Impossible | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com

8. What datasets are available to track the frequency and scale of domestic protests across Iran for the 2025-2026 period, and what trends do they indicate?

Primary Protest Data SourceACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) [1][2]
Period of Increased Protest ActivityLate 2025 through early 2026 [3][4][5][6][7]
Regime Survival Sentiment (Sept 2026)Overwhelmingly expected to survive [8][9][10][11][12]
During 2025-2026, domestic protests across Iran became more frequent and geographically widespread. These demonstrations were often initiated by severe economic crises, such as currency collapse and hyperinflation, before evolving into broader anti-government dissent [3][4][5][6][7]. Key datasets tracking these events include the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), which provides near-real-time data on demonstration events, political violence, and civilian targeting [1][2]. Further analysis and documentation are contributed by human rights organizations like the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) and media monitoring groups such as Iran International [13].
Despite intensified protests, the Iranian regime maintained firm control. While the intensity and scale of protest activity significantly increased from late 2025 through early 2026, the regime consistently suppressed dissent through the extensive use of lethal force, communications blackouts, and mass arrests [3][4][5][6][7]. This institutional resilience was underscored by prediction markets like Polymarket, which, in September 2026, tracked the probability of the Iranian regime falling before 2027 and indicated an overwhelming sentiment that the regime would survive despite severe domestic and external pressures [8][9][10][11][12].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Iran - Conflict Events | Humanitarian Dataset | HDXdata.humdata.org
  2. 2ACLED dataacleddata.com
  3. 3Anti-government protests alone in Iranjanes.com
  4. 4Report on Nationwide Protests in Iran: March 20, 2025ncr-iran.org
  5. 5Iran's 2025-26 Protests in Perspectiveagsi.org
  6. 6Is Iran at a Tipping Point? Protest, Military Escalation and...rusi.org
  7. 7How Iranians Protest: 2025-2026 Anti-Government Protestsgenocidewatch.com
  8. 8Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  9. 9https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026polymarket.com
  10. 10Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? — Polymarket Odds & Price | PredEdgeprededge.com
  11. 11Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027 by | Lines.comlines.com
  12. 12Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Marlinmarlin.bet
  13. 13Iran Protests Datasetsnewsdata.io

9. What do recent economic indicators from 2026 reveal about the impact of prolonged sanctions and military conflict on the Iranian state's fiscal stability?

GDP Contraction2.7% (2025/26 [1])
Inflation Rate45–60% (2025/26 [1])
Regime Survival Likelihood>90% chance of survival through December 31, 2026 (Prediction markets, as of Sept 1, 2026 [2][3][4][5])
Iran's economy faced a severe crisis in 2025/26 from sanctions and conflict. During this period, the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by an estimated 2.7%, inflation soared to 45–60%, and fiscal deficits surpassed 10% of GDP [1]. These macroeconomic challenges were primarily driven by intensified international sanctions, the 2026 Israel-Iran military conflict, and significant disruptions to global energy and trade routes. The conflict inflicted substantial damage on Iranian infrastructure, including critical energy and transportation facilities. Furthermore, a U.S. naval blockade severely restricted oil exports, a vital source of government revenue, a situation exacerbated by new U.S. sanctions announced in August 2026 [1][6][7][8].
Despite these formidable pressures, the Iranian regime demonstrates unexpected resilience against collapse. Despite severe economic turmoil, ongoing internal protests, and the announcement of "crushing" new U.S. sanctions, prediction markets overwhelmingly suggest the Iranian regime will not fall before 2027 [2][3][4][5]. As of September 1, 2026, these markets consistently assign a high probability (over 90%) to the regime surviving through December 31, 2026 [2][3][4][5]. This assessment stems from the perceived absence of core structural fractures, elite defections, or a unified opposition capable of replacing the current system, underscoring the regime's resilience through its institutional strength and the cohesion of its security apparatus [2][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Islamic Republic of Iran | World Bank Groupworldbank.org
  2. 2Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?polymarket.com
  3. 3Iran Regime Collapse 2027: Polymarket Analysis | PolyVeritaspolyveritas.com
  4. 4Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Beeks.aibeeks.ai
  5. 5Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? — 10% Odds | OddsShiftoddsshift.com
  6. 6ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF THE 2026 ISRAEL–IRAN...pjssrjournal.com
  7. 7What to expect as Iran braces for new US economic...aljazeera.com
  8. 8Iran and the Region Respond to U.S. “Economic D-Day”thesoufancenter.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Prediction markets and expert analyses assign a low probability, typically 6-7%, to the Iranian regime collapsing before January 1, 2027 [1][2][3][4]. Current forecasts indicate this probability ranges from less than 8% to 9% [5][6]. Regime 'fall' is strictly defined as the dissolution or incapacitation of the Islamic Republic's core institutions, not merely internal instability or leadership succession [1][2][3]. The regime showed unexpected resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 and subsequent military conflict [7][8][9][10][11]. The IRGC consolidated control and maintained institutional cohesion through economic entrenchment, ideological selection, and a strong internal security apparatus, engaging in tentative diplomatic efforts toward a potential 'JCPOA-Lite' settlement [7][5][12].
Despite significant internal unrest and the regime's use of violence, including thousands killed in January 2026, no organized, effective Iran-based opposition movement has coalesced [12]. Reza Pahlavi, a prominent opposition figure, faces challenges including a lack of institutional organizing power inside Iran and an absence of formal endorsement from the Trump administration [13][14][15]. His calls for nationwide protests in early 2026 were met with severe state repression, including a near-total communication blackout and internet shutdown to isolate the population [16][17]. While U.S. and Israeli strikes severely degraded Iran's military capabilities, U.S. policy emphasizes eliminating imminent threats rather than explicitly engineering a regime collapse, though officials acknowledge military pressure could create conditions favorable for such an outcome [5][12][18][19][20].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (20)
  1. 1Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?polymarket.com
  2. 2Will Iran's regime fall before 2027? — farexiofarexio.com
  3. 3Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? A market pricing a leadership vacuum, not a revolutionainvest.com
  4. 4Iran Regime Collapse 2027: Polymarket Analysis | PolyVeritaspolyveritas.com
  5. 5danielrosehill/Iran-Regime-Change-Forecast-1004github.com
  6. 6Future3lab/iran-skillgithub.com
  7. 7How the War Saved the Iranian Regime | Foreign Affairsforeignaffairs.com
  8. 8How Long Can the Iranian Regime Hold On? | Foreign Affairsforeignaffairs.com
  9. 9Trump and Netanyahu want regime change, but Iran’s regime was built for survival. A long war is now likelytheconversation.com
  10. 10Vol 1, 2026 | Cracking foundations: Iran’s waning internal stability, exacerbated by wars-rminform.com
  11. 11Iran-Israel Conflict 2026 — Strategic Assessment — by Luiz H. S. Brandãointelligencenotes.com
  12. 12U.S. and Israeli Military Operations Againstcongress.gov
  13. 13Regime change? Inside Reza Pahlavi's faltering bid to lead...reuters.com
  14. 14Iran: Is Reza Pahlavi's political star fading?dw.com
  15. 15An exiled crown prince says he can lead Iran to democracy, but Trump hasn't endorsed himnbcnews.com
  16. 16Iran: Internet shutdown from 18:45 UTC 8 January 2026github.com
  17. 17Protests in Iran: Possible U.S. Responses and Issues forcongress.gov
  18. 18U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  19. 19U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  20. 20Iran: Background and U.S. Policy | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov