Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect an election to be called by December 31, 2026. However, the Ukrainian government has formally ruled out holding elections in 2026 due to ongoing martial law, which is extended until at least October 31, 2026, making any announcement before year-end impossible.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This contract has consistently priced a 2025 Ukrainian election as a remote possibility. The probability has fluctuated within a narrow band between 1.1% and 6.7%. The price recently moved from a high of 5.5% to its current level of 2.1%, establishing a clear downward trend in the most recent period. This movement suggests a decaying probability for a "YES" resolution.
The recent price decline appears directly linked to official developments within Ukraine. Reports indicate Ukraine has ruled out holding elections in 2026, citing constitutional prohibitions during martial law. President Zelenskyy also signed legislation extending martial law. While this news specifically mentions 2026, the underlying legal and security justifications apply equally to 2025, which likely drove the negative repricing.
The market's price action, however, carries minimal weight. With zero total volume traded, the price does not reflect active participation or consensus. It is merely the midpoint of unfilled orders. The absence of any trading activity, even at these low probabilities, signals a complete lack of speculative interest and conviction from market participants. The order book implies a firm belief that no election will occur, with no buyers willing to take the other side of the trade.
  • The Ukrainian government formally ruled out 2026 presidential elections, citing ongoing war.
  • Martial law, extended through October 31, 2026, legally bars any election announcements.
  • Verkhovna Rada factions agree elections are impossible under current martial law conditions.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
December 31, 2026 12.0% 4.2% The Ukrainian government has formally ruled out holding elections in 2026 due to ongoing martial law.

Current Context

Ukraine has formally ruled out holding elections in 2026. This decision stems from constitutional prohibitions against voting under martial law, ongoing security risks, and the active war [1][2][3][4]. Martial law and general mobilization are in effect until at least October 31, 2026 [3]. A specialized parliamentary working group concluded that credible elections require a minimum of six months of post-ceasefire stability [1][5][6]. This renders any vote in 2026 legally and logistically impossible under current conditions [1][5][6].
No Ukrainian presidential election has been called as of August 2026. As of August 6, 2026, there are no reports of such an event [7]. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his leadership maintain daily contact with U.S. President Donald Trump's team, specifically envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner [8][9]. Discussions center on creating conditions for potential peace negotiations [8]. Recent high-level meetings in Washington addressed Patriot missile production and diplomatic strategies to revive peace talks [10][11]. Diplomatic efforts involving Trump, Zelenskyy, and Russian President Vladimir Putin are ongoing regarding the conflict and potential peace talks, though no specific election-calling event has been documented [12][13][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Ukraine rules out elections in 2026, citing war risks and legal hurdles / The New Voice of Ukraineenglish.nv.ua
  2. 2When will the elections be held in Ukraine – the decision of the working group | Ukrainian News | LIGA.netnews.liga.net
  3. 3Martial law and mobilization extended until October 31, 2026: Zelensky signed the laws - sud.uasud.ua
  4. 4Top news - Current security situation and key challenges of organising and holding post-war elections: a meeting of Working Group was held - Verkhovna Rada of Ukrainerada.gov.ua
  5. 5The West Shouldn’t Play With Russia on Ukrainian Elections | ISWunderstandingwar.org
  6. 6Five reasons Trump’s plan for Ukrainian elections and a peace referendum will only prolong the wartheconversation.com
  7. 7Newsminute April 25 2026 | The Associated Pressap.org
  8. 8Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready for all meeting formats and counting on Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner | Ukrainska Pravdapravda.com.ua
  9. 9Zelensky Says Ukraine in Daily Contact With Trump Teamkyivpost.com
  10. 10Analysis: One Week On: Was Zelensky’s Washington Visit Really a Success?kyivpost.com
  11. 11Trump, Zelenskyy discuss Patriot deal and reviving talks with Russiadefensenews.com
  12. 12Zelenskyy and Europe's top leaders will meet with Trump on ending...newsroom.ap.org
  13. 13Trump holds up photo sent to him by Putin as he expresses...newsroom.ap.org
  14. 14With little progress after phone calls and talks, Ukraine's allies hit Russia with new sanctions | The Associated Pressap.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This prediction market resolves "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is officially scheduled by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves "No". The market focuses solely on the announcement of a scheduling date between market creation (June 18, 2026) and the deadline, irrespective of when the election is actually planned to occur. Resolution will be based on official information from the Government of Ukraine or a consensus of credible reporting.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
December 31, 2026 $0.13 $0.88 12%

Market Discussion

Traders on the prediction market express significant skepticism regarding an early announcement for the next Ukrainian presidential election, with probabilities for scheduling by August 31, 2026, or December 31, 2026, currently at 2% and 13% respectively. Key arguments against a near-term announcement include constitutional prohibitions during martial law (extended until October 2026), President Zelenskyy's conditions for a ceasefire, and the extensive logistical preparations required post-conflict. The market generally anticipates a later election, with an emerging consensus pointing towards a fall 2026 timeline rather than 2025, reflecting the strong structural barriers to an earlier vote.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 49 High Risk

Official decision: one office decides and holds the answer before the public

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score54Caution
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score49High Risk

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 2 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on ukraine-election-called-by-august-31-2026 carried 68% of its 50,570-contract tape (print is 26d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
30High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Official decision: one office decides and holds the answer before the public

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
38Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

1 contract · 4 settled or closed — not scored

December 31, 202638
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract · 4 settled or closed — not scored

December 31, 2026—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 4 settled or closed — not scored

December 31, 2026100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
31High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 38 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 1.1c slippage (~12% of a 9.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

4 settled or closed — not scored

December 31, 202638Market scoreLiquidity38Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 38
Liquidity
38 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 21, 2026

5. What specific diplomatic or military breakthroughs would be required for Ukraine to lift martial law and call an election before year-end 2026?

Election ConditionFormal ceasefire and security guarantees (required to lift martial law) [1][2]
Election Preparation TimeAt least six months (after ceasefire) [3][4][5]
Election Probability 20269% to 16% (prediction markets by end of 2026) [6][7][8][9]
Ukraine requires a ceasefire and security to lift martial law for elections. Ukrainian law and the constitution strictly forbid elections during martial law, which has been consistently prolonged [3][4][2][10]. For elections to take place before the end of 2026, martial law must be lifted, a condition President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently stated is contingent upon a formal ceasefire and the establishment of essential security guarantees [1][2][10]. These are fundamental prerequisites for ensuring a secure electoral environment [1][2][10].
Significant logistical hurdles and stalled diplomacy make early elections improbable. Even once a ceasefire is in place, Ukrainian officials and civil society groups estimate that at least six months are needed to organize free and fair elections, covering voter registration, security, and the integration of displaced persons and refugees [3][4][5]. However, as of mid-2026, diplomatic efforts to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have shown minimal sustained progress, with significant disagreements persisting over peace terms and ceasefires [11][12]. This situation leads to widespread skepticism, with prediction markets assigning a very low likelihood, approximately 9% to 16% as of mid-2026, that an election will be held or called in Ukraine before the close of 2026 [6][7][8][9].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Ukraine will not hold elections until a ceasefire is in place, Zelensky says - France 24france24.com
  2. 2Ukraine will only hold elections after ceasefire, Zelenskyy...euronews.com
  3. 3Ukraine elections 2026 – What law Zelenskyy's team preparing | RBC-Ukrainenewsukraine.rbc.ua
  4. 4Ukraine signals election readiness as 59% say wait until war endseuromaidanpress.com
  5. 5Ukraine rules out elections in 2026, citing war risks and legal hurdles / The New Voice of Ukraineenglish.nv.ua
  6. 6Ukraine election called by...? Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  7. 7Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? — 16% | Orrery market check | Orreryorrery.me
  8. 8Will Ukraine call an election by December 31, 2026?lines.com
  9. 9Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?tomorrowodds.com
  10. 10Ukrainian President says elections could happen within...newsroom.ap.org
  11. 11With little progress after phone calls and talks, Ukraine's allies hit Russia with new sanctions | The Associated Pressap.org
  12. 12Newsminute April 25 2026 | The Associated Pressap.org

6. What is the current consensus among Verkhovna Rada factions regarding potential amendments to election laws that would permit voting under martial law before 2027?

Martial Law ElectionsCannot be held under current conditions [1]
Election by 2026 ProbabilityApproximately 16% (as of late July 2026) [2][3][4]
Post-War Election TimelinePresidential elections announced 1 month after martial law ends, 6-month preparation, 90-day process [1]
Verkhovna Rada factions agree elections are impossible under current martial law. A cross-party working group in the Verkhovna Rada has reached a consensus that elections cannot be held under the current martial law conditions, which indicates a lack of agreement for amendments that would allow voting during martial law before 2027. Instead, legislative efforts are being directed towards creating a framework for the first post-war elections [1]. Proposed timelines for post-war elections suggest announcing presidential elections one month after martial law ends, followed by a six-month preparation period and a 90-day election process [1].
Prediction markets indicate low probability for elections before 2027. This aligns with prediction markets, which assign low probabilities, specifically around 16% as of late July 2026, to an election being officially called before the end of 2026 [2][3][4]. This reflects the ongoing constitutional and security-based suspension of voting. While prediction markets have seen significant wagers on other election cycles, there is currently no widely cited or authoritative resolution data available specifically for when Ukraine's next election will be called [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Ukraine elections 2026 – What law Zelenskyy's team preparing | RBC-Ukrainenewsukraine.rbc.ua
  2. 2Ukraine election called by...? Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
  3. 3Will Ukraine call an election by December 31, 2026?lines.com
  4. 4Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? — 16% | Orrery market check | Orreryorrery.me
  5. 5Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

7. How do the stated prerequisites for an election from President Zelenskyy's administration compare with those outlined by international observers like the OSCE?

Zelenskyy Election ConditionsLifting martial law, formal ceasefire, internationally-backed security guarantees for voters and military personnel [1][2][3][4]
OSCE Standard EmphasesVoter accessibility, right of displaced persons to vote, voter registry integrity, free and safe campaigning [5][6][7][8]
Estimated Election Preparation TimeAt least six months post-ceasefire and legislative reform, making elections unlikely before late 2026 or 2027 [8][9][10]
President Zelenskyy's administration has specific prerequisites for holding elections. As of August 2026, these conditions include the lifting of martial law, a formal ceasefire with Russia, and robust, internationally-backed security guarantees for both voters and military personnel [1][2][3][4]. While the OSCE does not outline a specific list of requirements for wartime, general international observer standards emphasize voter accessibility, the right of displaced persons to vote, the integrity of the voter registry, and the ability to conduct free and safe campaigning [5][6][7][8]. The Ukrainian government, experts, and stakeholders largely agree that the general conditions highlighted by international observers are presently impossible to meet under active bombardment and martial law [5][6][7][8].
Logistical and legal challenges currently preclude holding elections soon. The Zelenskyy administration's stated conditions primarily focus on fundamental security and legal transformations, including the cessation of martial law [1][2][3][4]. Furthermore, the Ukrainian Central Election Commission and legislative working groups have estimated that at least six months of preparation time are necessary following a ceasefire and legislative reform [8][9][10]. This extensive preparation period renders any election before late 2026 or 2027 logistically and legally difficult [8][9][10]. International observation bodies typically assess election environments against established democratic standards, whereas internal national laws govern the specific administration and feasibility of elections during emergencies [11][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Zelensky Says ‘I Am Ready for Elections’ as He Calls on US, Europe to Help Ensure Security for Wartime Votekyivpost.com
  2. 2Ukraine Considers Legal Path To Elections Under Martial Law As US Pushes For Voterferl.org
  3. 3Zelenskyy appeals to Trump on the elections in Ukraine | Ukrainian News | LIGA.netnews.liga.net
  4. 4Ukraine will not hold elections until a ceasefire is in place, Zelensky says - France 24france24.com
  5. 5Could Ukraine really hold elections in the next 90 days? | CNNcnn.com
  6. 6Supporting Ukraine’s Democracy After the War: Key Issues, Comparative Experience and Best Practicesidea.int
  7. 7Why hasn’t Ukraine held elections since the war began? | Ukraine | The Guardiantheguardian.com
  8. 8Ukraine rules out elections in 2026, citing war risks and legal hurdles / The New Voice of Ukraineenglish.nv.ua
  9. 9Ukraine signals election readiness as 59% say wait until war endseuromaidanpress.com
  10. 10Will Zelensky Call Ukraine Election – And Could He Lose? What We Know - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  11. 11OSCE/ODIHR & Election Observationnass.org
  12. 12FEC | Election and voting informationfec.gov

8. What is the official timeline proposed by Ukraine's parliamentary working group for the logistical steps required to hold an election after a potential ceasefire is declared?

Preparation time post-ceasefireMinimum 6 months [1][2][3][4]
Official election timelineNot yet confirmed as of August 2026 [5][6]
Legislation for elections under martial lawNo official law passed as of August 2026 [1][2][3]
No official timeline exists for Ukrainian post-ceasefire elections as of August 2026. As of August 6, 2026, a Ukrainian parliamentary working group has not publicly confirmed an official timeline for national elections following a potential ceasefire [5][6]. However, the working group has reached a consensus requiring a minimum of six months of preparation after martial law ends or a stable ceasefire is in place before elections can be conducted [1][2][3][4]. President Zelenskyy has also indicated that current ceasefire discussions are centered on technical aspects rather than immediate electoral roadmaps [6].
Logistical and security obstacles currently prevent holding elections during wartime. The working group has determined that conducting elections during active combat is not feasible due to security concerns at polling stations, inherent issues with the voter registry, and the practical inability of military personnel at the front lines to participate [1][2]. While legislative plans include a framework for post-war elections, no official law has been passed as of August 2026 to authorize elections during the ongoing state of martial law [1][2][3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Ukraine rules out elections in 2026, citing war risks and legal hurdles / The New Voice of Ukraineenglish.nv.ua
  2. 2Ukraine elections 2026 – What law Zelenskyy's team preparing | RBC-Ukrainenewsukraine.rbc.ua
  3. 32026 Ukrainian elections - Zelensky prepares scenario for second term during war - Ukraine news - ZN.uazn.ua
  4. 4Elections, referendum and US pressure: is Zelenskyy...pravda.com.ua
  5. 5Putin agrees in principle with proposal for Ukraine ceasefire and says more discussions are needed | The Associated Pressap.org
  6. 6US arms flow to Ukraine again as the Kremlin mulls a... - AP.orgap.org

9. Which articles in the Constitution of Ukraine and the 'On the Legal Regime of Martial Law' act are cited as the primary legal barriers to holding elections through 2026?

Primary legal barrier (Law)Article 19 of the Law of Ukraine 'On the Legal Regime of Martial Law' [1][2][3][4]
Constitutional Article (Parliament)Article 83(4) of the Constitution of Ukraine [1][5][4]
Constitutional Article (Rights Restriction)Article 64 of the Constitution of Ukraine [6][5]
Ukraine's Constitution and martial law act prohibit elections during wartime. The primary legal barriers preventing elections in Ukraine through 2026 stem from Article 19 of the Law of Ukraine 'On the Legal Regime of Martial Law' [1][2][3][4] and Articles 83(4) and 64 of the Constitution of Ukraine [1][5][4][6]. These provisions collectively prohibit the holding of national and local elections for the duration of martial law [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Specific legal articles ban national, local, and parliamentary elections. Article 19 of the Law 'On the Legal Regime of Martial Law' explicitly bans national and local elections while martial law is in effect [1][2][3][4]. While presidential elections are not explicitly forbidden by the Constitution during this period, Article 83(4) of the Constitution effectively postpones parliamentary elections by extending the Verkhovna Rada's powers until a new parliament is elected after martial law is lifted [1][5][4].
Constitutional provisions allow restricting fundamental rights, including voting rights. Moreover, Article 64 of the Constitution permits the restriction of constitutional rights, such as voting rights specified in Article 38, during periods of martial law [6][5]. This constitutional provision provides the basis for the legal prohibition against conducting elections under these circumstances [6][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Ukraine's Constitutional Order in Wartimeverfassungsblog.de
  2. 2NATIONALrazumkov.org.ua
  3. 3Why Zelensky Can't Hold Elections Yetlawfaremedia.org
  4. 4Wartime Elections as Democratic Backslidingverfassungsblog.de
  5. 5Legal information on the impossibility of holding elections under conditions of martial lawoporaua.org
  6. 6Ukrainian authorities’ legitimacy when elections are impossibleepde.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of August 6, 2026, the Ukrainian government has ruled out presidential elections for 2026, citing the ongoing war, martial law requirements, and the absence of a ceasefire [1][2][3][4]. This position is maintained despite a survey conducted between July 28 and August 2, 2026, which indicated that over 60% of Ukrainians support holding elections immediately following the end of martial law and suspension of hostilities [5]. Political discourse in 2025 and 2026 has centered on ceasefire negotiations and diplomatic tensions between the Trump administration, Ukrainian leadership, and Russia, rather than internal Ukrainian electoral processes [6][7][8]. There is no evidence of an election being called in Ukraine as of August 6, 2026 [6].
Geopolitical analysis for the remainder of 2026 suggests no immediate prospect for a peaceful settlement [9][10][11]. Both Ukraine and Russia are preparing for a difficult winter, continuing drone and missile campaigns, and potential shifts in frontline control [9][10][11]. Diplomatic engagement remains active, with prediction markets heavily anticipating ongoing, high-level meetings between President Zelenskyy and President Trump throughout 2026 [12][13]. This diplomatic pressure has not triggered any formal election announcement [12].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (13)
  1. 1Ukraine rules out elections in 2026, citing war risks and legal hurdles / The New Voice of Ukraineenglish.nv.ua
  2. 2Zelensky won't announce elections on war anniversary amid talks of US-driven timelinekyivindependent.com
  3. 3Zelenskyy denies plan to announce elections in Ukraine soon despite pressure from Trump - CBS Newscbsnews.com
  4. 4Ukraine will not hold elections until a ceasefire is in place, Zelensky says - France 24france24.com
  5. 5More than half of Ukrainians support elections immediately after martial law ends | Ukrainska Pravdapravda.com.ua
  6. 6With little progress after phone calls and talks, Ukraine's allies hit Russia with new sanctions | The Associated Pressap.org
  7. 7Starmer and Macron step up to shape European security as Trump roils relations | The Associated Pressap.org
  8. 8More Republicans want the US to focus on ceasefires in Ukraine and Gaza, a new AP-NORC poll finds | The Associated Pressap.org
  9. 9Winter: Ukraine fears toughest test since Russia's full-scale invasioncnbc.com
  10. 10Russia's war against Ukraine - Most likely scenarios through 2026 | RBC-Ukrainenewsukraine.rbc.ua
  11. 11Winter is coming: Ukraine warns of escalating Russian ballistic strikes - Atlantic Councilatlanticcouncil.org
  12. 12Will Trump Meet With Zelenskyy in July 2026?lines.com
  13. 13Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy… 100.0% Odds | Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com