Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for an election by December 31 at 23.9% model vs 43.0% market, suggesting the market may be overpricing an early election without constitutional triggers by December 31, 2026.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Market pricing for an unscheduled Iranian presidential election has been stable within a narrow, low-probability band. The contract has moved sideways in a 300 basis point range between 6.0% and 9.0% since inception. It opened at 9.0% and held that level before a modest decline in early August. The current price is 7.0%, indicating a very low perceived likelihood of an election occurring by year-end.
The most significant price movement was a 200 basis point drop from 9.0% to 7.0% around August 6. This re-pricing followed reports that President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly stated he would not resign amid internal political pressure. With a presidential vacancy being a primary trigger for a snap election, this development directly reduced the probability. Critically, there has been zero trading volume. This complete lack of liquidity means the price reflects only the market maker's adjustments to external news, not any traded conviction from participants.
The contract's price action establishes a clear channel between 6.0% and 9.0%, though these levels are untested by actual trades. Overall sentiment, as reflected by the price quote, is highly skeptical of an early election. This is consistent with the next scheduled vote being in 2028 and a previously proposed May 2026 election failing to materialize. The illiquidity of the contract suggests the outcome is viewed as a low-probability event that has not attracted speculative interest.
  • No election appears likely by 2026; Iran's next presidential vote is scheduled for 2028.
  • The current president is serving a full term, with no active constitutional triggers for an early election.
  • Sustained civil unrest or Article 131 conditions may compel an unscheduled election.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
December 31 43.0% 23.9% Iran's next presidential election is scheduled for 2028, with no constitutional triggers for an early vote.

Current Context

Iran's next scheduled presidential election is set for 2028 [1]. President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in 2024, remains in office as of August 6, 2026 [1]. He has explicitly stated he will not resign, despite reports of political pressure and internal regime conflict concerning US diplomatic negotiations [2]. While an election was proposed for May 1, 2026 (11 Ordibehesht), to occur 60 days after the official end of the war, this has not materialized as of August 2026 [3].
Iran faces instability after the Supreme Leader's death [4]. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian officials died in a strike on their compound on February 28, 2026 [4]. This event created a leadership vacuum. There is no reported information regarding a scheduled presidential election in Iran as of early August 2026 following this strike [4]. Iran's political system is characterized by intense competition within the conservative camp, with significant power held by the IRGC and security-intelligence networks [5]. Reformist and moderate political currents are largely marginalized [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 12028 Iranian presidential electionen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Iran Update Special Report, August 4, 2026 | ISWunderstandingwar.org
  3. 3Iran's National Election Headquarters emphasized: Considering the necessity of greater focus by groups, activists, and elites in the political, cultural, and social fields to responsibly accompany the people's presence in the streets, with the approval of the Supreme National Security Council, the election on 11 Ordibehesht will be held 60 days after the official announcement of the end of the war. -TasnimNews - CGTNnews.cgtn.com
  4. 4Iran supreme leader residenceinteractives.ap.org
  5. 5Iran's Political System After the War • Stimson Centerstimson.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held, with voting confirmed, by December 31, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." An election date announcement is insufficient for a "Yes" resolution, and any subsequent disputes or events occurring after voting will not affect the outcome. Resolution will primarily be based on official information from the government of Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
December 31 $0.09 $0.95 43%

Market Discussion

Market participants widely anticipate that Iran will not hold an early presidential election by December 31, 2026, with current market odds reflecting a very low probability for such an event. This consensus is primarily driven by the next scheduled election being in 2028 and the absence of constitutional triggers like a president's death or resignation. While factors such as heightened regime instability, regional conflict, and leadership changes have been noted, these have not yet led to confirmed moves for a snap ballot.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 64 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score79Good

Resolution quality is low (60), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score5Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score64Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 4 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Screened clean
Participant influenceNo conflicted participant detected. Clear
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 1 settled or closed — not scored

December 31—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 1 settled or closed — not scored

December 31—
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 1 settled or closed — not scored

December 31100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
5Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 7.0c slippage (~93% of a 7.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

1 settled or closed — not scored

December 31–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 21, 2026

5. What specific constitutional procedures could trigger a snap presidential election in Iran before the scheduled 2028 vote?

Snap Election TriggersPresident dies, is dismissed, resigns, is absent, or is ill for more than two months [1][2][3]
New Election TimelineWithin a maximum period of 50 days [1][2][3]
Next Scheduled Election2028 [4]
Specific constitutional procedures could trigger a snap Iranian presidential election. Such an election could occur before the regularly scheduled 2028 vote if the President dies, is dismissed, resigns, is absent, or is ill for more than two months [1][2][3][4]. In these circumstances, the First Deputy assumes the President's authorities and responsibilities, subject to the approval of the Supreme Leader [1][2][3].
A new presidential election must be organized swiftly after a vacancy. Following the incapacitation or departure of a president, a new election must be organized within a maximum period of 50 days [1][2][3]. A designated council, comprising the Speaker of Parliament, the Head of the Judiciary, and the First Deputy of the President, is responsible for overseeing and organizing this new election within the specified 50-day timeframe [1][2][3]. Furthermore, a president has the option to submit their resignation to the Supreme Leader, continuing to discharge their functions until that resignation is officially accepted [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1What happens in Iran when a president dies in office? | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2Legal procedure for succession after Raisi | Iran Internationaliranintl.com
  3. 3functionspresident.ir
  4. 4Iran Weighs Holding Presidential, Parliamentary Elections...tasnimnews.ir

6. What official statements have Iran's Guardian Council or Assembly of Experts made since February 2026 regarding a presidential succession timeline?

Former Supreme Leader's DeathFebruary 28, 2026 [1]
New Supreme Leader ElectionMarch 9, 2026 [2][3][4][5]
Next Presidential Election2028 [6]
Iran's governmental bodies have exclusively focused on supreme leader succession since February 2026. Since this time, neither the Guardian Council nor the Assembly of Experts has issued any official statements concerning a presidential succession timeline. Their sustained focus has been directed solely towards the supreme leader transition process, primarily because the presidency remains occupied by Masoud Pezeshkian [3][7][8][9].
Mojtaba Khamenei became Supreme Leader; next presidential election is in 2028. This followed the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026 [1], after which the Assembly of Experts formally elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader of Iran on March 9, 2026 [2][3][4][5]. There is no presidential election scheduled for 2026, with the next such election in Iran planned for 2028 [6]. Authorities are currently exploring the possibility of holding the 2028 presidential election simultaneously with parliamentary elections in that year [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Iran supreme leader residenceinteractives.ap.org
  2. 2Panel picking Iran's supreme leader has reached consensus, member says | Reutersreuters.com
  3. 3How Iran's next supreme leader is chosen | AP Newsapnews.com
  4. 4Iran names Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader | AP Newsapnews.com
  5. 5Iran names Khamenei's hardline son Mojtaba as new supreme leader, oil surges | Reutersreuters.com
  6. 62028 Iranian presidential electionen.wikipedia.org
  7. 7Who's leading Iran now, and how will a new supreme leader be chosen? | SBS Newssbs.com.au
  8. 8Who could succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to lead Iran? | Explainer News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
  9. 9Who might be the new leader of Iran? There’s no clear successor | CNNcnn.com
  10. 10Iran Weighs Holding Presidential, Parliamentary Elections Simultaneously in 2028 - Politics news - Tasnim News Agencytasnimnews.ir

7. How do the political objectives of the IRGC and the traditional clerical establishment differ regarding the timing of the next presidential election?

Early Election HeldJune-July 2024 [1][2][3][4]
Early Election WinnerMasoud Pezeshkian [1][2][3][4]
Next Presidential Election2028 [1][2][3][4]
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the clerical establishment largely agree on maintaining regime stability, yet exhibit tactical differences [5]. The IRGC aims to consolidate power through loyalist candidates, securing the succession post-Khamenei [5]. In contrast, the Supreme Leader sometimes allows limited moderate influence to manage public legitimacy and regime stability, as evident in the 2024 election [6].
An early election occurred, establishing the next presidential term. Following President Ebrahim Raisi's death in May 2024, an early presidential election was held in June-July 2024, won by Masoud Pezeshkian [1][2][3][4]. Consequently, the subsequent presidential election is scheduled for 2028, with the new president serving a complete four-year term after this early election [1][2][3][4][7].
No diverging objectives found regarding the next election's timing. While these facts outline the general objectives and tactical differences between the IRGC and the clerical establishment, the available information does not specify any diverging objectives between these groups concerning the scheduling or timing of the next presidential election in 2028.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Moderate Pezeshkian wins Iran's presidential race, interior ministry says | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2Iranian voters pick moderate as president to replace hardline Raisireuters.com
  3. 32024 Iranian presidential electionen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Iran's presidential election of 2024britannica.com
  5. 5Iran’s June elections could consolidate hardline power before Khamenei succession - Atlantic Councilatlanticcouncil.org
  6. 6How Iran's Khamenei elevated a little-known moderate to the presidency | Reutersreuters.com
  7. 7Constitutional Council confirms new president will serve for four years - Tehran Timestehrantimes.com

8. What level of sustained civil unrest would be necessary to compel Iran's leadership to call an unscheduled presidential election in 2026?

Unscheduled Election TriggerRequires vacancy (death, resignation, absence, illness > 2 months, dismissal) as per Article 131 [1][2][3]
Role of Civil UnrestNot a constitutional mechanism for unscheduled election [4][5][6]
Next Scheduled Election2028, after the 2024 regular election [7][6][8]
Iran's constitution outlines specific triggers for unscheduled presidential elections. Article 131 details the explicit conditions that would necessitate such an election, including the vacation of the office due to death, resignation, absence, illness lasting over two months, or dismissal by the Supreme Leader [1][2][3]. Research indicates that civil unrest alone is not a constitutional mechanism to compel an unscheduled election, and no specific level of unrest is defined that would trigger one in 2026 [4][5][6]. It is also important to note that the Iranian legal and political systems operate under different constitutional provisions compared to US-based election frameworks [9][10][11].
Recent events confirm no unscheduled election is likely by 2026. Political analysis concluded that Iran held a regular presidential election in 2024 following the death of Ebrahim Raisi [7][6][8]. As of mid-2026, there has been no subsequent constitutional crisis or vacancy identified that would necessitate another presidential election before the next regularly scheduled contest in 2028 [7][6][8].
Sources (11)
  1. 1What happens in Iran when a president dies in office? | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2Temporary Presidential Councilen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Legal procedure for succession after Raisi | Iran Internationaliranintl.com
  4. 4Iranians cast ballots in presidential election - AP Newsroomnewsroom.ap.org
  5. 5Iran’s president has died in office. Here’s what happens next | CNNcnn.com
  6. 6Iran Presidential Election by June 30: Market Collapses to Seven Percentlines.com
  7. 7Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? Predictions... 2026polymarket.com
  8. 8Will Iran hold a presidential election by June… 98% No · Polymarketexplorer.struct.to
  9. 9How Iran's foreign policy is affected by its presidential election...newsroom.ap.org
  10. 10State executive official irregular office changesballotpedia.org
  11. 11Daily Brew: May 9, 2023 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

9. What precedents from Iran's 2024 special election could inform the process and timeline if a new election were called in 2026?

Maximum Election Period50 days (constitutional requirement) [1][2][3][4]
2024 Candidate Registration5 days (May 30–June 3) [5][6][7][8]
2024 Guardian Council Vetting7 days (concluding June 11) [5][6]
Iran's 2024 special election established a rapid 50-day election precedent. This process strictly adhered to the constitutional requirement for a new presidential election within 50 days following the death, dismissal, or resignation of a president, overseen by a council with the Supreme Leader's approval [1][2][3][4]. The 2024 election, prompted by President Ebrahim Raisi's death, showcased a highly compressed timeline: candidate registration occurred over five days (May 30–June 3), followed by a seven-day vetting period by the Guardian Council (concluding June 11), and approximately a two-week campaign period before the election on June 28 [5][6][7][8].
The Guardian Council's vetting critically narrows the presidential candidate pool. This body plays a crucial role in evaluating candidates based on their political, religious, and managerial qualifications [5][6][9]. In 2024, a clear precedent for candidate selection was set when only six of 80 registrants received approval [5][6][9]. Furthermore, election rules stipulate a runoff between the top two candidates on the following Friday if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round, ensuring the entire electoral process remains within the 50-day constitutional window [5][1][2].
Sources (9)
  1. 1functionspresident.ir
  2. 2Constitutionlondon.mfa.gov.ir
  3. 3What happens in Iran when a president dies in office? | Reutersreuters.com
  4. 4Iranian Goverment Constitution, English Textciaotest.cc.columbia.edu
  5. 5Iran’s presidential election: How voting process worksreuters.com
  6. 6Primer: Iran’s 2024 Presidential Election | The Iran Primeriranprimer.usip.org
  7. 7Iran registers presidential candidates for early vote after Raisi's deathreuters.com
  8. 8IFES Election Guide | Elections: Iranian President 2024 Generalelectionguide.org
  9. 9Constitutional Council clarifies criteria for presidential candidates (full text)shora-gc.ir

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Iran's next scheduled presidential election is set for 2028. There is no scheduled or anticipated presidential election for the remainder of 2026 [1][2]. Sources do not contain information regarding a 2026 presidential election in Iran [3].
Masoud Pezeshkian, the current president, was elected in a snap election in 2024 following the death of Ebrahim Raisi and is serving a standard four-year term [1][4][5]. Iranian authorities are exploring the potential to hold presidential and parliamentary elections simultaneously in 2028 [2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (5)
  1. 12028 Iranian presidential electionen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Iran Weighs Holding Presidential, Parliamentary Elections Simultaneously in 2028 - Politics news - Tasnim News Agencytasnimnews.ir
  3. 3Election cycle and aggregationfec.gov
  4. 42024 Iranian presidential electionen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Iran’s electoral mechanisms explainedshora-gc.ir