Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
Yes refers to: December 31
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for an election by December 31 at 23.9% model vs 43.0% market, suggesting the market may be overpricing an early election without constitutional triggers by December 31, 2026.
1. Executive Verdict
- No election appears likely by 2026; Iran's next presidential vote is scheduled for 2028.
- The current president is serving a full term, with no active constitutional triggers for an early election.
- Sustained civil unrest or Article 131 conditions may compel an unscheduled election.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 43.0% | 23.9% | Iran's next presidential election is scheduled for 2028, with no constitutional triggers for an early vote. |
Current Context
Iran's next scheduled presidential election is set for 2028 [^] . President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in 2024, remains in office as of August 6, 2026 [^]. He has explicitly stated he will not resign, despite reports of political pressure and internal regime conflict concerning US diplomatic negotiations [^]. While an election was proposed for May 1, 2026 (11 Ordibehesht), to occur 60 days after the official end of the war, this has not materialized as of August 2026 [^].
Iran faces instability after the Supreme Leader's death [^] . Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian officials died in a strike on their compound on February 28, 2026 [^]. This event created a leadership vacuum. There is no reported information regarding a scheduled presidential election in Iran as of early August 2026 following this strike [^]. Iran's political system is characterized by intense competition within the conservative camp, with significant power held by the IRGC and security-intelligence networks [^]. Reformist and moderate political currents are largely marginalized [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Market pricing for an unscheduled Iranian presidential election has been stable within a narrow, low-probability band. The contract has moved sideways in a 300 basis point range between 6.0% and 9.0% since inception. It opened at 9.0% and held that level before a modest decline in early August. The current price is 7.0%, indicating a very low perceived likelihood of an election occurring by year-end.
The most significant price movement was a 200 basis point drop from 9.0% to 7.0% around August 6. This re-pricing followed reports that President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly stated he would not resign amid internal political pressure. With a presidential vacancy being a primary trigger for a snap election, this development directly reduced the probability. Critically, there has been zero trading volume. This complete lack of liquidity means the price reflects only the market maker's adjustments to external news, not any traded conviction from participants.
The contract's price action establishes a clear channel between 6.0% and 9.0%, though these levels are untested by actual trades. Overall sentiment, as reflected by the price quote, is highly skeptical of an early election. This is consistent with the next scheduled vote being in 2028 and a previously proposed May 2026 election failing to materialize. The illiquidity of the contract suggests the outcome is viewed as a low-probability event that has not attracted speculative interest.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held, with voting confirmed, by December 31, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." An election date announcement is insufficient for a "Yes" resolution, and any subsequent disputes or events occurring after voting will not affect the outcome. Resolution will primarily be based on official information from the government of Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | $0.09 | $0.95 | 43% |
Market Discussion
Market participants widely anticipate that Iran will not hold an early presidential election by December 31, 2026, with current market odds reflecting a very low probability for such an event. This consensus is primarily driven by the next scheduled election being in 2028 and the absence of constitutional triggers like a president's death or resignation. While factors such as heightened regime instability, regional conflict, and leadership changes have been noted, these have not yet led to confirmed moves for a snap ballot.
4. What specific constitutional procedures could trigger a snap presidential election in Iran before the scheduled 2028 vote?
| Snap Election Triggers | President dies, is dismissed, resigns, is absent, or is ill for more than two months [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| New Election Timeline | Within a maximum period of 50 days [^][^][^] |
| Next Scheduled Election | 2028 [^] |
Specific constitutional procedures could trigger a snap Iranian presidential election. Such an election could occur before the regularly scheduled 2028 vote if the President dies, is dismissed, resigns, is absent, or is ill for more than two months [^][^][^][^]. In these circumstances, the First Deputy assumes the President's authorities and responsibilities, subject to the approval of the Supreme Leader [^][^][^].
A new presidential election must be organized swiftly after a vacancy. Following the incapacitation or departure of a president, a new election must be organized within a maximum period of 50 days [^][^][^]. A designated council, comprising the Speaker of Parliament, the Head of the Judiciary, and the First Deputy of the President, is responsible for overseeing and organizing this new election within the specified 50-day timeframe [^][^][^]. Furthermore, a president has the option to submit their resignation to the Supreme Leader, continuing to discharge their functions until that resignation is officially accepted [^].
5. What official statements have Iran's Guardian Council or Assembly of Experts made since February 2026 regarding a presidential succession timeline?
| Former Supreme Leader's Death | February 28, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| New Supreme Leader Election | March 9, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| Next Presidential Election | 2028 [^] |
Iran's governmental bodies have exclusively focused on supreme leader succession since February 2026. Since this time, neither the Guardian Council nor the Assembly of Experts has issued any official statements concerning a presidential succession timeline. Their sustained focus has been directed solely towards the supreme leader transition process, primarily because the presidency remains occupied by Masoud Pezeshkian [^][^][^][^].
Mojtaba Khamenei became Supreme Leader; next presidential election is in 2028. This followed the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026 [^], after which the Assembly of Experts formally elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader of Iran on March 9, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. There is no presidential election scheduled for 2026, with the next such election in Iran planned for 2028 [^]. Authorities are currently exploring the possibility of holding the 2028 presidential election simultaneously with parliamentary elections in that year [^].
6. How do the political objectives of the IRGC and the traditional clerical establishment differ regarding the timing of the next presidential election?
| Early Election Held | June-July 2024 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Early Election Winner | Masoud Pezeshkian [^][^][^][^] |
| Next Presidential Election | 2028 [^][^][^][^] |
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the clerical establishment largely agree on maintaining regime stability, yet exhibit tactical differences [^] . The IRGC aims to consolidate power through loyalist candidates, securing the succession post-Khamenei [^]. In contrast, the Supreme Leader sometimes allows limited moderate influence to manage public legitimacy and regime stability, as evident in the 2024 election [^].
An early election occurred, establishing the next presidential term. Following President Ebrahim Raisi's death in May 2024, an early presidential election was held in June-July 2024, won by Masoud Pezeshkian [^][^][^][^]. Consequently, the subsequent presidential election is scheduled for 2028, with the new president serving a complete four-year term after this early election [^][^][^][^][^].
No diverging objectives found regarding the next election's timing. While these facts outline the general objectives and tactical differences between the IRGC and the clerical establishment, the available information does not specify any diverging objectives between these groups concerning the scheduling or timing of the next presidential election in 2028.
7. What level of sustained civil unrest would be necessary to compel Iran's leadership to call an unscheduled presidential election in 2026?
| Unscheduled Election Trigger | Requires vacancy (death, resignation, absence, illness > 2 months, dismissal) as per Article 131 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Role of Civil Unrest | Not a constitutional mechanism for unscheduled election [^][^][^] |
| Next Scheduled Election | 2028, after the 2024 regular election [^][^][^] |
Iran's constitution outlines specific triggers for unscheduled presidential elections. Article 131 details the explicit conditions that would necessitate such an election, including the vacation of the office due to death, resignation, absence, illness lasting over two months, or dismissal by the Supreme Leader [^][^][^]. Research indicates that civil unrest alone is not a constitutional mechanism to compel an unscheduled election, and no specific level of unrest is defined that would trigger one in 2026 [^][^][^]. It is also important to note that the Iranian legal and political systems operate under different constitutional provisions compared to US-based election frameworks [^][^][^].
Recent events confirm no unscheduled election is likely by 2026. Political analysis concluded that Iran held a regular presidential election in 2024 following the death of Ebrahim Raisi [^][^][^]. As of mid-2026, there has been no subsequent constitutional crisis or vacancy identified that would necessitate another presidential election before the next regularly scheduled contest in 2028 [^][^][^].
8. What precedents from Iran's 2024 special election could inform the process and timeline if a new election were called in 2026?
| Maximum Election Period | 50 days (constitutional requirement) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2024 Candidate Registration | 5 days (May 30–June 3) [^][^][^][^] |
| 2024 Guardian Council Vetting | 7 days (concluding June 11) [^][^] |
Iran's 2024 special election established a rapid 50-day election precedent. This process strictly adhered to the constitutional requirement for a new presidential election within 50 days following the death, dismissal, or resignation of a president, overseen by a council with the Supreme Leader's approval [^][^][^][^]. The 2024 election, prompted by President Ebrahim Raisi's death, showcased a highly compressed timeline: candidate registration occurred over five days (May 30–June 3), followed by a seven-day vetting period by the Guardian Council (concluding June 11), and approximately a two-week campaign period before the election on June 28 [^][^][^][^].
The Guardian Council's vetting critically narrows the presidential candidate pool. This body plays a crucial role in evaluating candidates based on their political, religious, and managerial qualifications [^][^][^]. In 2024, a clear precedent for candidate selection was set when only six of 80 registrants received approval [^][^][^]. Furthermore, election rules stipulate a runoff between the top two candidates on the following Friday if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round, ensuring the entire electoral process remains within the 50-day constitutional window [^][^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Masoud Pezeshkian, the current president, was elected in a snap election in 2024 following the death of Ebrahim Raisi and is serving a standard four-year term [^] [^] [^] . Iranian authorities are exploring the potential to hold presidential and parliamentary elections simultaneously in 2028 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: December 31, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Iran's next scheduled presidential election is set for 2028.
- Trigger: There is no scheduled or anticipated presidential election for the remainder of 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Sources do not contain information regarding a 2026 presidential election in Iran [^] .
- Trigger: Masoud Pezeshkian, the current president, was elected in a snap election in 2024 following the death of Ebrahim Raisi and is serving a standard four-year term [^] [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
