Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Middle East Markets
Active Markets (8)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
September 30
Market Model 0.8% 0.4%
December 31
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
October 31
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 2.7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei
Market Model 82.1% 80.2%
Mohammad Khatami
Market Model 0.2% 0.5%
Benjamin Netanyahu
Market Model 30.0% 24.2%
Naftali Bennett
Market Model 7.0% 7.7%
Netanyahu out by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 48.0% 40.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 15.0% | Med | 56 | Refresh |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Top outcome: December 31 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 4.0% | 2.7% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | 56 | Refresh |
| Iran leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Mojtaba Khamenei | 82.1% | 80.2% | High | 56 | Refresh |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Top outcome: Benjamin Netanyahu | 30.0% | 24.2% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| Netanyahu out by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 48.0% | 40.1% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 23.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 43.0% | 23.9% | High | 68 |
