Before Nov 15, 2026
Market Model 69.0% 60.7%
Before Nov 8, 2026
Market Model 69.0% 54.7%
Climate and Weather Markets
Active Markets (33)
Before Nov 15, 2026
Market Model 20.0% 14.0%
Before Nov 22, 2026
Market Model 84.0% 86.0%
Before Nov 8, 2026
Market Model 5.0% 2.1%
Before Nov 15, 2026
Market Model 79.0% 65.7%
West Palm Beach
Market Model 33.0% 30.0%
Pittsburgh
Market Model 69.0% 66.0%
Above 6 inches
Market Model 37.0% 87.0%
Above 1 inch
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Before Dec 20, 2026
Market Model 94.0% 99.0%
Before Dec 13, 2026
Market Model 8.0% 99.0%
Before Dec 6, 2026
Market Model 97.0% 97.3%
Before Nov 15, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 1.8%
Before Nov 15, 2026
Market Model 4.0% 2.9%
Before Nov 22, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 4.0%
Above 4 inches
Market Model 61.0% 63.6%
Above 20 inches
Market Model 46.0% 24.5%
Snow in Chicago in Dec 2026? Kalshi
Above 2 inches
Market Model 82.0% 67.4%
Above 6 inches
Market Model 45.0% 35.8%
Before Nov 22, 2026
Market Model 85.0% 75.0%
Before Nov 29, 2026
Market Model 99.0% 98.0%
Above 7
Market Model 96.0% 97.6%
Above 6
Market Model 98.0% 99.7%
Yes
Market Model 2.0% 2.0%
Hurricane Rachel category? Kalshi
Category 4 or above
Market Model 1.0% 21.1%
Category 3 or above
Market Model 99.0% 99.9%
Above 12
Market Model 41.0% 18.5%
Above 9
Market Model 64.0% 49.4%
Above 4
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Above 5
Market Model 93.0% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 4.7%
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 70.7%
At least 3
Market Model 9.0% 5.2%
At least 1
Market Model 82.0% 67.4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.4% 1.5%
Above 4
Market Model 74.0% 78.7%
Above 2
Market Model 82.0% 85.0%
Above 18
Market Model 50.0% 90.0%
Above 19
Market Model 53.0% 85.0%
EV market share in 2030? Kalshi
Above 30%
Market Model 40.0% 38.4%
Above 20%
Market Model 65.0% 62.1%
Above 18
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
Above 16
Market Model 32.0% 16.9%
Yes
Market Model 56.0% 48.0%
Yes
Market Model 30.2% 22.1%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 7.6%
US meets its climate goals? Kalshi
By 2025
Market Model 4.8% 15.8%
By 2030
Market Model 16.0% 15.8%
Yes
Market Model 81.0% 88.2%
Yes
Market Model 19.4% 12.1%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 32.7%
Yes
Market Model 31.0% 21.8%
Oil
Market Model 54.0% 44.7%
Solar
Market Model 3.0% 6.3%
Expired Markets (58)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
Market Model — —
Hurricane Odalys category? Kalshi
Category 3 or above
Market Model 98.0% 100.0%
Category 2 or above
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Hurricane Polo category? Kalshi
Category 5 or above
Market Model 99.0% 99.8%
Category 3 or above
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Rain in Chicago in Sep 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Hurricane Norbert category? Kalshi
Category 1 or above
Market Model 7.0% 2.4%
Category 2 or above
Market Model 5.0% 1.7%
Yes
Market Model — —
Hurricane Lowell category? Kalshi
Category 1 or above
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Category 5 or above
Market Model 97.0% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
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Yes
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Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Rain in Houston in May 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | 63 | ||
| — | — | Med | 68 | ||
| — | — | High | 65 | ||
| — | — | Med | 81 | ||
| — | — | Med | 69 | ||
| — | — | Med | 66 | ||
| — | — | Med | 65 | ||
| — | — | High | 69 | ||
| — | — | High | 64 | ||
| — | — | Med | 75 | ||
| — | — | High | 65 | ||
| — | — | High | 65 | ||
| — | — | High | 73 | ||
| — | — | High | 75 | ||
| Hurricane Odalys category? Top outcome: Category 3 or above | 98.0% | 100.0% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | 78 | ||
| Hurricane Polo category? Top outcome: Category 5 or above | 99.0% | 99.8% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | 82 | ||
| — | — | Med | 72 | ||
| Hurricane Norbert category? Top outcome: Category 1 or above | 7.0% | 2.4% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Hurricane Lowell category? Top outcome: Category 1 or above | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | — | |
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