Seattle
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Newark
Market Model 78.0% 75.0%
Climate and Weather Markets
Active Markets (20)
At least 3
Market Model 9.0% 5.2%
At least 1
Market Model 82.0% 67.4%
Hurricane Polo category? Kalshi
Category 5 or above
Market Model 99.0% 99.8%
Category 3 or above
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Rain in Chicago in Sep 2026? Kalshi
Above 3 inches
Market Model 76.0% 95.8%
Above 4 inches
Market Model 5.0% 24.8%
Hurricane Norbert category? Kalshi
Category 1 or above
Market Model 7.0% 2.4%
Category 2 or above
Market Model 5.0% 1.7%
Above 6
Market Model 33.0% 32.3%
Above 4
Market Model 54.0% 57.2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.4% 1.5%
Above 4
Market Model 74.0% 78.7%
Above 2
Market Model 82.0% 85.0%
Above 18
Market Model 50.0% 90.0%
Above 19
Market Model 53.0% 85.0%
EV market share in 2030? Kalshi
Above 30%
Market Model 47.0% 38.4%
Above 20%
Market Model 59.0% 62.1%
Above 18
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
Above 16
Market Model 32.0% 16.9%
Yes
Market Model 56.0% 48.0%
Yes
Market Model 30.2% 22.1%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 7.6%
US meets its climate goals? Kalshi
By 2025
Market Model 4.8% 15.8%
By 2030
Market Model 16.0% 15.8%
Yes
Market Model 81.0% 88.2%
Yes
Market Model 19.4% 12.1%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 32.7%
Yes
Market Model 31.0% 21.8%
Oil
Market Model 54.0% 44.7%
Solar
Market Model 3.0% 6.3%
Expired Markets (39)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Hurricane Lowell category? Kalshi
Category 1 or above
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Category 5 or above
Market Model 97.0% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Rain in Houston in May 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | 72 | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Hurricane Lowell category? Top outcome: Category 1 or above | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | — | |
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| — | — | High | — |
