Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1)?
Short Answer
Phoenix is likely to see rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1, 2026), with the market pricing this outcome at 93%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The probability of rain in New York City dropped sharply on October 27, coinciding with the release of weather forecasts that concentrated the most severe weather in the Southwest and central U.S. National Weather Service guidance for Albuquerque issued that day showed a high probability of rain, focusing the market's attention on that region. This appears to have driven a repricing of risk for the East Coast, causing the implied probability for NYC rain to fall from 52% to 18%.
A slight recovery the following day, to 23%, occurred as new forecasts began to track the storm system's expected eastward movement. Local reports for Tampa, for example, indicated an increased likelihood of rain. This aligns with broader guidance from NOAA, AccuWeather, and Fox Weather, which described a pattern of moisture spreading from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast toward the Ohio Valley and the East. This progression reintroduced a low-probability chance of the system affecting New York City over the weekend. Trading volume has been minimal, with only 10 contracts traded on October 28.
- Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles lead with favored widespread Western precipitation.
- West Palm Beach's high probability linked to tropical moisture in Southeast.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 18.0% | 18.0% | No specific weather forecast information was provided for this location. |
| Washington DC | 22.0% | 22.0% | No specific weather forecast information was provided for this location. |
| Providence | 7.0% | 7.0% | No specific weather forecast information was provided for this location. |
| Miami | 85.0% | 85.0% | Current outlooks indicate a significant chance of rain this weekend. |
| New York City | 16.0% | 10.7% | No specific weather forecast information was provided for this location. |
Current Context
The strongest rain signal for Oct. 31 - Nov. 1 is across the Southwest and central/southern U.S. NOAA WPC expects widespread western precipitation and heavy rain, especially in the Southwest [1]. Rain and thunderstorms will spread from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, then into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and eventually the East. AccuWeather and Fox Weather identify tropical moisture and a developing storm as sources for heavy rain and potential flooding, particularly in Texas and Southern California [2][3].
Heavy rain, thunderstorms, and flash flooding are the main hazards this weekend. Moderate to heavy precipitation totals are possible in the southern tier, though placement, timing, precipitation type, and amounts remain model-dependent [1][4]. Fox Weather assesses Texas as the primary early flooding concern [2]. Likely wet areas include Texas and the south-central Plains, parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast. The system's eastward advance could bring rain to the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. While the Northeast and much of the East may initially be drier, rain could reach the East late Sunday; city-level timing remains uncertain [4][3]. Significant mountain snow is favored at higher elevations, specifically in the Sierra, San Juans, and central/southern Rockies, with snow levels possibly falling Sunday behind a cold front [5][1][6]. Lower elevations in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and the Southwest are more likely to see rain, with rain/snow lines still uncertain [1][6].
Prediction markets indicate high probabilities for Southwest and Southeast cities. Rain and thunderstorm activity begins or expands in the Southwest and south-central states on Oct. 30. Saturday, Oct. 31, is the main day for rain and storms across the Southwest, Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Southeast, alongside western mountain snow. Sunday, Nov. 1, brings continued western precipitation and eastward expansion, with broader central U.S. rain, especially later Sunday and into Monday, Nov. 2 [1][4][2]. A Kalshi market tracker reported implied probabilities of 94% for Springfield, 93% for Phoenix, 90% for Albuquerque, 87% for Los Angeles, and 87% for West Palm Beach. Robinhood's listed rain contracts showed New Orleans at 62¢, Chicago at 58¢, and Denver at 58¢ on Oct. 28. These figures reflect market prices and update in real time [7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1WPC's Extended Forecast Discussionwpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 2Pineapple Express to troll Southwest, perhaps Southern California, with heavy rain on Halloween weekendaccuweather.com
- 3Halloween plans at risk as Tropical Storm Vance moisture fuels widespread storms | Fox Weatherfoxweather.com
- 4Halloween forecast 2026: Who gets rain, storms and chilly trick-or-treating weatheraccuweather.com
- 5Mid-Week Snow Northwest; Weekend Snow & Rain Southwest | US + Canada Daily Snow Forecast | OpenSnowopensnow.com
- 6Snow Coming to the Northwest this Week | US + Canada Daily Snow Forecast | OpenSnowopensnow.com
- 7October 31, 2026: Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 8Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1)? Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Tampa
📈 October 28, 2026: 50.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 65.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 50.0 percentage point price spike for "Tampa" was the release of local weather forecasts on October 28, 2026, indicating an increased likelihood of rain for the weekend. Local Tampa forecasts, published on the date of the market movement, predicted scattered showers possible for Saturday, October 31, and showers/storms likely for Sunday, November 1, in the Tampa and Central Florida region [1][2][3]. These news reports, explicitly mentioning rain chances, coincided with the price surge. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no related posts or viral narratives from key figures were identified.
Outcome: Albuquerque
📈 October 27, 2026: 90.0pp spike
Price increased from 2.0% to 92.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 90.0 percentage point price spike for "Albuquerque" was the release of official weather forecasts on October 27, 2026. The National Weather Service (NWS) Albuquerque point matrix, issued on the same day as the market movement, showed high probabilities for rain, with roughly 70% chances on Saturday and Sunday nights, and 40% on Saturday daytime [4]. NWS briefings further flagged showers and localized flooding for central New Mexico, indicating Albuquerque was a likely rain location for the weekend [5]. Social media was irrelevant as no activity was identified in the provided research.
Outcome: San Francisco
📉 October 26, 2026: 17.0pp drop
Price decreased from 52.0% to 35.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 17.0 percentage point drop for the "San Francisco" outcome on October 26, 2026, was a clarification in traditional weather forecasts indicating a significantly drier outlook for the city. On October 26, San Francisco weather coverage highlighted model disagreement over Bay Area rain, with Southern California showing a clearer signal for substantial precipitation [6]. Furthermore, National Weather Service and Timeanddate forecasts for San Francisco proper presented low (20-30%) to zero precipitation probabilities for the weekend of October 31 - November 1 [7][8]. This information, disseminated through traditional news channels, appeared to lead the price move by reducing the perceived likelihood of rain. Social media activity was irrelevant as no related posts or narratives were identified in the provided sources.
Sources (8)
- 1Still windy, muggier w/ a passing shower Wednesdaywfla.com
- 2Forecast: Mostly cloudy and more humid.tampabay28.com
- 3Gusty winds and more rain ahead for Central Florida. What about Halloween?clickorlando.com
- 4National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 5Weather Overviewweather.gov
- 6California’s storm door is about to swing wide opensfchronicle.com
- 7National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 8San Francisco, California, USA 14 day weather forecasttimeanddate.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market asks whether it will rain in Minneapolis, Denver, or Seattle during the weekend of October 31 - November 1, beginning Saturday at 12:00 am EDT. A "Yes" resolution for a city implies rain occurred within that city during this period, while "No" implies it did not. The provided content does not specify the precise definition of "rain" (e.g., amount, duration) or the official data source used for settlement.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Palm Beach | $0.90 | $0.14 | 89% |
| Miami | $0.86 | $0.16 | 85% |
| Atlanta | $0.81 | $0.21 | 80% |
| Indianapolis | $0.63 | $0.49 | 66% |
| Tampa | $0.75 | $0.36 | 65% |
| Columbus | $0.52 | $0.75 | 58% |
| Lexington | $0.92 | $0.59 | 41% |
| Pittsburgh | $0.14 | $0.90 | 32% |
| Washington DC | $0.18 | $0.83 | 22% |
| Detroit | $0.41 | $0.79 | 21% |
| Trenton | $0.13 | $0.90 | 19% |
| Boston | $0.18 | $0.83 | 18% |
| Philadelphia | $0.14 | $0.87 | 18% |
| New York City | $0.15 | $0.87 | 16% |
| Newark | $0.10 | $0.91 | 12% |
| Providence | $0.12 | $0.90 | 7% |
| Springfield | $0.91 | $0.96 | 94% |
| St. Louis | $0.77 | $0.58 | 78% |
| New Orleans | $0.78 | $0.23 | 77% |
| Oklahoma City | $0.77 | $0.25 | 77% |
| Chicago | $0.76 | $0.26 | 72% |
| Milwaukee | $0.87 | $0.32 | 69% |
| Dallas | $0.69 | $0.33 | 67% |
| Houston | $0.64 | $0.38 | 62% |
| Minneapolis | $0.57 | $0.45 | 56% |
| College Station | $0.65 | $0.76 | 35% |
| Austin | $0.35 | $0.68 | 31% |
| San Antonio | $0.29 | $0.74 | 30% |
| Phoenix | $0.94 | $0.08 | 93% |
| Albuquerque | $0.92 | $0.16 | 90% |
| Denver | $0.53 | $0.50 | 53% |
| Las Vegas | $0.84 | $0.18 | 90% |
| Los Angeles | $0.90 | $0.14 | 87% |
| Seattle | $0.43 | $0.59 | 41% |
| San Francisco | $0.29 | $0.73 | 23% |
Market Discussion
Weather forecasts for Oct 31 - Nov 1 indicate a broad U.S. pattern of precipitation, with the West and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast expected to see widespread rain and thunderstorms, including heavy rain in the Southwest and snow in higher elevations of the Sierra and Rockies [1][2][3][4]. Prediction markets for this weekend show varying probabilities, with Minneapolis (56%), Denver (49%), and Seattle (40%) as leading cities on one platform, while another lists New Orleans (62¢), Chicago (58¢), and Denver (58¢) [5][6]. Las Vegas also appears to have a 75% "YES" chance on one platform [7].
Sources (7)
- 1WPC's Extended Forecast Discussionwpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 2Mid-Week Snow Northwest; Weekend Snow & Rain Southwest | US + Canada Daily Snow Forecast | OpenSnowopensnow.com
- 3Halloween Through November Pattern: Powerful Pacific Jet Stream, Atmospheric River Potential, Heavy Rain and Thunderstorm Threats Across the West| October 31 – Nov 5th | Alpha Weather Analysisalphaweatheranalysis.com
- 4Halloween weather forecast 2026: U.S. maps show where rain, snow and warmth could arrivetheweather.com
- 5Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1)? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 6October 31, 2026: Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 7Will it rain in Las Vegas between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 202… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score75Good
Market integrity is low (60), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score48High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score70Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What atmospheric steering patterns could alter the storm track forecasted by NOAA and AccuWeather, shifting the highest rain probabilities before October 31?
| Rain Probability Shift Timeline | Can occur before October 31 due to blocking/cutoff or faster shortwaves [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Impact of Northern-Stream Dig | Shifts weekend precipitation risk eastward to the Southwest [1] |
| Western Trough Behavior Effect | Cutoff/slowdown keeps rain in West/Southwest; embedded westerlies move system east [1] |
Atmospheric patterns influence storm tracks, altering rain probabilities before October 31. These alterations are driven by steering patterns that impact the interaction of northern and southern streams within the eastern-Pacific/Western trough, or by affecting the timing and amplitude of shortwaves as they cross the central/eastern ridge [1]. Additionally, other mechanisms such as the blocking or cutoff behavior of the western trough can significantly shift rain probabilities, especially before the end of October [1][2].
Specific atmospheric behaviors dictate where and when precipitation will fall. A deeper northern-stream dig, identified by various forecast models, would accelerate the eastward movement of southern-stream disturbances, thereby shifting the risk of weekend precipitation towards the Southwest and potentially altering downstream timing [1]. The speed at which shortwaves traverse the central/eastern ridge also determines rain probabilities: faster waves could move the highest rain chances eastward before October 31, while slower waves would retain or shift them further west and later into regions such as the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and East [1]. The behavior of the western trough is equally crucial; if it cuts off or slows, weekend rain may remain concentrated in the West and Southwest. Conversely, if the trough stays embedded in stronger westerlies, the system would progress more quickly towards the Plains and central/eastern U.S. [1]. These shifts carry significant implications, exposing the Southwest and southern tier to changes in heavy rain, Colorado's San Juans and central Rockies to heavy mountain snow, and the Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast to changes in rain and thunderstorms [1].
7. What meteorological data from the WPC and AccuWeather supports the high probability of a "Pineapple Express" event impacting Los Angeles and Phoenix over the Halloween weekend?
| Los Angeles Metro Rain (likely) | Less than 1 inch in most metros [1] |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Saturday Rain Opportunity | 40% opportunity, 0.33-0.5 inch for most areas [2] |
| Phoenix Typical QPF | Around 1 inch in Phoenix, 1.5-2 inches northeast [3][1][4][5] |
Meteorological data suggests an atmospheric river event for the Southwest. While there are elevated odds of a tropical-moisture/atmospheric-river event impacting Los Angeles and Phoenix over the Halloween weekend, there is not a high-confidence claim for a classic "Pineapple Express" directly producing heavy rain in both cities [1][6][7]. Official and specialist forecasts explicitly retain substantial uncertainty regarding precipitation timing, placement, type, and totals [1][6][7]. The WPC's October 28 extended discussion forecasts a large upper trough bringing widespread precipitation and ample moisture to California and the Intermountain West, with heavy rain possible, especially across the Southwest [6][7]. The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) characterizes this setup as a strong low-latitude atmospheric river transporting tropical moisture towards far Southern California and Baja California [7][8]. AccuWeather's analysis noted an Alaskan storm and another system drawing tropical moisture westward, influenced by Tropical Rainstorm Olana near Hawaii, suggesting a potential Pineapple Express if this moisture corridor extends from Hawaii to the West Coast [1].
Flood potential is noted, with Phoenix showing stronger rain support. WPC risk products indicate meaningful flood potential, including a Slight excessive-rainfall risk for central and southern Arizona from Friday October 30 to Saturday October 31, and a Marginal risk for Southern California and Arizona from Saturday October 31 to Sunday November 1 [7][8]. The WPC discussion cites precipitable water values of 1–1.4 inches in southern Arizona, which are 2–3 standard deviations above normal, alongside instability and locally heavy convection [7][8]. For Los Angeles, AccuWeather's more likely scenario projects a fast-moving, partly separated system producing less than 1 inch in most Southern California metros, though 1–3 inches are possible on some south- and west-facing mountain slopes [1]. A separate forecast for Los Angeles indicates roughly a 40% chance of rain on Saturday and approximately one-third to one-half inch for most areas [2]. In Phoenix, guidance points to the strongest rain threat late Saturday night into Sunday, describing an atmospheric river with precipitable water near 275–325% of normal [3][1][4][5]. Typical quantitative precipitation forecasts for Phoenix suggest around 1 inch in the city and 1.5–2 inches northeast, with a higher-end potential of 2–3 inches [3][1][4][5]. Overall, Phoenix shows stronger support for substantial weekend precipitation, whereas Los Angeles has a credible but more conditional rain signal, generally with sub-inch urban totals in the favored scenario [1][6][7][9].
Sources (9)
- 1Pineapple Express to troll Southwest, perhaps Southern California, with heavy rain on Halloween weekendaccuweather.com
- 2LA weather: Is rain in the forecast for Halloween night? | FOX 11 Los Angelesfoxla.com
- 3Phoenix NWS Area Forecast Discussion (PSR) | Vertexvertexmaps.com
- 4Phoenix could have its first rainy Halloween in nearly 40 yearskjzz.org
- 5Arizona weather forecast: Tropical moisture to bring storm and flood threat for Halloween | FOX 10 Phoenixfox10phoenix.com
- 6WPC's Extended Forecast Discussionwpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 7CW3E Precipitation Outlook: 27 October 2026 - Center for Western Weather and Water Extremescw3e.ucsd.edu
- 8WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlookorigin-east-www-wpc.woc.noaa.gov
- 9WPC 12-Hour Probability of Precipitation Forecasts for Days 3-7wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
8. How do precipitation forecasts from NOAA and Fox Weather compare for Austin versus Chicago in terms of timing and certainty for October 31 - November 1?
| Fox Weather Austin Oct 31 Rain Probability | No explicit probability [1] |
|---|---|
| Fox Weather Austin Oct 31 High Temperature | 82°F [1] |
| Chicago Prediction Market Rain Chance | 55% chance of YES [2] |
Austin forecasts indicate no significant precipitation from October 31 to November 1. Fox Weather's forecast for Austin on October 31 and November 1 showed no explicit rain probability, with expectations of cloudy or mostly cloudy skies [1]. High temperatures were projected at 82°F for October 31 and 84°F for November 1, with the first mention of a rain signal appearing on November 3 [1]. A local Austin report from October 26 also suggested decreasing rain certainty after Friday, aligning with a declining precipitation signal for the October 31-November 1 weekend [3]. The retrieved NOAA/NWS Austin tabular forecast, issued October 19, covered only October 19-25, and did not list probabilities for the target dates, instead showing low late-period probabilities generally between 0-10% during its coverage period [4].
Direct precipitation forecasts for Chicago on the target dates were unavailable. Direct precipitation forecasts for Chicago for October 31 to November 1 were not available from either NOAA or Fox Weather in the retrieved materials [4][5][6]. Climatological norms for Chicago for these dates indicate typical precipitation of 0.10 inches on October 31 and 0.09 inches on November 1, which provides historical context rather than a specific prediction [5][7][8]. Despite the absence of specific forecasts, prediction market snapshots indicated a nearly even chance for measurable rain in Chicago, with Robinhood showing 58¢ (suggesting 58% probability) and another aggregation reflecting a 55% chance of YES [9][2]. Fox Weather editorial content hinted at unsettled or cold-season transitional patterns around Chicago for similar late-October/early-November periods, but these were not verified forecasts for 2026 [6][10][11]. A national Fox Weather social media snippet referenced a 34% rain chance for an October 31, 2026 outlook, but this was not specific to Austin or Chicago [12].
Sources (12)
- 1Austin, TX Weather Forecast | Local Weather Updates for Texas by FOX Weatherfoxweather.com
- 2Will it rain in Chicago between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3When will it rain in Austin? This week's forecaststatesman.com
- 4Tabular State Forecast - National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 5National Weather Servicepreview-forecast.weather.gov
- 6Warm Halloween forecast for many across US | Fox Weatherfoxweather.com
- 7Chicago (O'Hare) 1991-2020 Climate Normalsweather.gov
- 8November Normals for Temperature, Precipitation and Snowfall for Chicago, ILweather.gov
- 9October 31, 2026: Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 10Cold air invades US to start November | Fox Weatherfoxweather.com
- 11First snow of season falls over Northeast mountains as cold invades eastern US | Fox Weatherfoxweather.com
- 12TRICK-OR-TREAT WEATHER: Don't let a frighteningly soggy...facebook.com
9. What temperature thresholds could cause precipitation in Denver to fall as snow instead of rain, as forecasted by the National Weather Service for November 1?
| Forecasted High Temperature for November 1 | 60°F (NWS forecast, Oct 28, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Daytime Precipitation Probability for November 1 | 10% (NWS forecast, Oct 28, 2026) [1] |
| Prediction Market Implied Chance of Precipitation | 49%-53% (Oct. 31–Nov. 1, 2026 market) [2] |
The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for November 1 does not explicitly predict snow in Denver. Issued on October 28, 2026, the NWS Denver/Boulder forecast indicates an overnight low of 44°F and a daytime high of 60°F for November 1, with a low daytime precipitation probability of 10% [1]. Given these forecasted temperatures are significantly above freezing (approximately 32°F or 0°C), any precipitation that occurs would ordinarily be expected to fall as rain. Snow would only become plausible if surface temperatures cooled to around freezing or below, particularly during the precipitation event [1].
Prediction markets indicate a moderate chance of qualifying precipitation for Denver. For the period of October 31 to November 1, 2026, a prediction market resolves based on measurable precipitation, whether rain or snow, with trace amounts counting as zero. Snapshots of this market at the time showed Denver with an implied chance of qualifying precipitation ranging from 49% to 53% [2].
10. What evidence from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and major weather models corroborates the high implied rain probabilities for New Orleans and Miami?
| Market Implied Rain Probability New Orleans | Approximately 79% (Oct. 28, 2026 snapshot) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Market Implied Rain Probability Miami | Approximately 84% (Oct. 28, 2026 snapshot) [1][2][3] |
| Contract Resolution Condition | Precipitation exceeds 0 inches on Oct. 31 or Nov. 1 [1] |
As of October 28, 2026, market data indicated a rain probability of approximately 79% for New Orleans and 84% for Miami, with the contract resolving yes if the Weather Company reports precipitation exceeding 0 inches on either October 31 or November 1 [1]. Miami's high implied rain probability is well-supported by meteorological evidence. The National Weather Service (NWS) Miami forecast discussion cited increasing confidence in high precipitation chances from Saturday evening through Sunday morning [4]. This outlook included 1.6–1.7 inches of precipitable water, a stationary frontal boundary, and 85–95% precipitation chances specifically over Atlantic and coastal areas [4]. One ensemble scenario suggested 2–3 inches of rain along eastern metropolitan areas through Monday, further indicating a high likelihood of some precipitation [4]. Historical Storm Prediction Center (SPC) evidence from a similar late-October/early-November pattern in 2025 also aligns with a rain setup for Florida, noting a midlevel low, moist low-level air, and isolated thunderstorms, which is compatible with general rain rather than severe weather [5][6].
Corroboration for New Orleans' rain probability remains weak and indirect. Available Storm Prediction Center (SPC) material describing an amplifying trough and cold front is from 2025, offering only contextual support for a rain setup rather than a current 2026 forecast [7][8]. An incomplete National Weather Service (NWS) New Orleans search result mentioned Saturday having greater areal coverage for heavy rainfall than Sunday, but it lacked a clear dated 2026 weekend forecast or quantitative probability [9]. Furthermore, no valid 2026 SPC outlook or direct 2026 GFS/ECMWF output was found for either New Orleans or Miami [10][11][1]. It is also important to note that SPC severe-weather outlooks are not precipitation probability forecasts [10][11][1].
Sources (11)
- 1Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1)? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 2Will it rain in New Orleans between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Will it rain in Miami between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 5Storm Prediction Center Nov 1, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlookspc.noaa.gov
- 6Storm Prediction Center Oct 31, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlookspc.noaa.gov
- 7Storm Prediction Center Oct 31, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlookspc.noaa.gov
- 8Storm Prediction Center Oct 29, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlookspc.noaa.gov
- 9National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 10https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/FL/spc.noaa.gov
- 11Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1)? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Widespread precipitation is favored across the West on Oct. 31–Nov. 1, with the heaviest rain risk in California/Southwest and heavy mountain snow in Colorado’s San Juans and central Rockies [1][2]. Rain and thunderstorms are likely from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, with locally heavy rainfall; tropical moisture and a frontal system could create flooding concern in Texas, where some areas may receive 2–3 inches and isolated higher totals [1][3]. The rain shield should expand from the Plains and Mississippi Valley toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley and East, potentially reaching the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Sunday [1][3]. NOAA/CPC-style outlooks favor above-normal precipitation in the Southwest around Oct. 31–Nov. 4; the broader pattern is wetter across the West, Four Corners, Plains, Mississippi Valley, Gulf Coast, and Florida [4][5].
Bullish catalysts for YES rain contracts include a faster/deeper western trough, stronger subtropical or tropical moisture feed, slower frontal progression, and heavier Texas/Southwest precipitation [1][2][3]. Conversely, bearish catalysts involve dry-slot intrusion, faster eastward storm exit, weaker moisture transport, or a northward/southward track shift that misses the contract station [1][2][3]. A trading caveat notes that exact trick-or-treat-hour rainfall is not reliably resolved yet, and market settlement uses station-based daily precipitation; trace precipitation may count as zero under stated contract rules, leading to city weather impressions diverging from settlement [1][6][7].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 04, 2026
- Closes: November 02, 2026
Sources (7)
- 1WPC's Extended Forecast Discussionwpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 2Mid-Week Snow Northwest; Weekend Snow & Rain Southwest | US + Canada Daily Snow Forecast | OpenSnowopensnow.com
- 3Halloween plans at risk as Tropical Storm Vance moisture fuels widespread storms | Fox Weatherfoxweather.com
- 4Halloween weather forecast 2026: U.S. maps show where rain, snow and warmth could arrivetheweather.com
- 5Snow Coming to the Northwest this Week | US + Canada Daily Snow Forecast | OpenSnowopensnow.com
- 6Halloween Weather Forecast 2026: Farmers' Almanacfarmersalmanac.com
- 7October 31, 2026: Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT24-WPB: YES (Oct 26, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT24-TTN: NO (Oct 26, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT24-TPA: NO (Oct 26, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT24-STL: NO (Oct 26, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT24-SGF: NO (Oct 26, 2026)
