Topic tracker · Climate and Weather
Where will it rain this weekend?
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (0 live, 3 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Where will it rain this weekend? markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated September 23, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Where will it rain this weekend (Sep 26 - Sep 27)? | September 28, 2026 | 80.8% vs 81.0% | Report → |
| Where will it rain this weekend (Sep 19 - Sep 20)? | September 21, 2026 | 65.0% vs 65.0% | Report → |
| Where will it rain this weekend (Sep 5 - Sep 6)? | September 7, 2026 | 73.0% vs 73.0% | Report → |
